Predict the future -- Lou Montanez
During our discussion about Orioles pitching prospect Jake Arrieta, almost everyone agreed that he should work on his command before progressing too far in the Orioles’ minor league system.
The general consensus among those who participated in the debate was that he should start the season with the Double-A Bowie Baysox. Some people thought it would be better if the 22-year-old right-hander spent the entire season in Bowie, while others believed it would be good if he finished the season with the Triple-A Norfolk Tides.
A few readers mentioned that Arrieta should be promoted to the major leagues in September if he puts up good numbers in the minors. We’ll have to keep a close eye on Arrieta’s progress in 2008 because it will be an important year for his development as a prospect in the organization.
Next, I’d like to talk about a player who emerged as a legitimate power hitter with his breakout season as a member of the Baysox in 2008. Lou Montanez won the Triple Crown in the Eastern League after hitting .335 with 26 home runs and 97 RBIs in 116 games for Bowie last season. The 27-year-old outfielder batted .295 with three home runs and 14 RBIs in 38 games for the Orioles after he was promoted in August.
With those numbers, Montanez deserves to have an opportunity to play every day in the major leagues. Prior to last year, however, the 6-foot-2, 185-pound outfielder never had more than 14 home runs or 62 RBIs in a single season.
Typically, I would like to see a player consistently perform at a high level for more than one season before giving him an opportunity in the major leagues. Still, Montanez didn’t do anything to harm his chances in the couple months that he was in the major leagues at the end of the 2008 season. He proved that he was able to hit major league pitching, and he seemed to improve his defense with more experience.
Why does it seem like there won’t be any room for Montanez with the big league club to start the 2009 season? Well, unfortunately for him, the Orioles have solid outfielders at all three positions. It would be nice to see Montanez coming off the bench as a late-inning pinch-hitter, but I’d rather see him playing every day in Norfolk than riding the pine in Baltimore.
The best-case scenario, in my opinion, is for Montanez to hit around .500 in spring training and force his way into the major leagues. But he should be the starting left fielder for the Tides if the Orioles aren’t going to use him regularly.
As much as I’d like to see Montanez playing at Camden Yards in April, I think he’ll be in Triple-A for most of the season. Look for him to hit around .300 with 25-30 home runs and 90-100 RBIs with the Tides in 2009. Unfortunately, I don’t expect Montanez to spend much time in the majors – unless one of the outfielders suffers an injury and Montanez is needed as a full-time starter. I’m sure Orioles fans don’t want Nick Markakis, Adam Jones or Luke Scott to get hurt, so it’s probably safe to assume Montanez won’t be a regular in the Orioles’ starting lineup this season.
What do you think the Orioles should do with Montanez this season? Should he split time with Scott in left field? Would it be a good idea to use Aubrey Huff as the starting first baseman and have Montanez serve as the full-time designated hitter?
I think Montanez earned the respect of a lot of Orioles fans with his performance last season, so I’m curious to hear your thoughts. Let me know if you agree with my predictions, or if you’re more optimistic about his future.
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Check out previous installments of "Predict the future" by clicking on the links below:
• Jake Arrieta
• Brad Bergesen
• Brian Matusz
• Hayden Penn
• Chris Tillman
• Matt Wieters








Comments
Whether Lou Montanez plays in the majors or AAA this coming season, I think he will have a pretty good year offensively. It appears he could develop into a average to above average corner outfielder at the major league level. He has played shortstop in the minors so he could possibly develop as a corner infielder, too.
Posted by: Tyrone of Towson | January 16, 2009 5:13 AM
Montanez should be the regular left fielder with Scott going to DH and Huff being the regular 1st baseman. I thought the whole idea was to influx this lineup with youth. Montanez has proven to me he can hit ML hitting and has put great numbers down in the minors.
Posted by: Ken Lowe | January 16, 2009 5:54 AM
Montanez has earned a shot. At 27 it's time. If the Orioles don't see him in their future, they should trade him, getting something in return and giving him a chance to play -- somewhere. If the O's don't make a move for a quality first basemen, then an option -- and a good one -- is Huff at first and Montanez DH, and a backup outfielder. It would be nice to see if he's able to maintain or build on his numbers. If not now, when?
Posted by: Frank | January 16, 2009 6:49 AM
To me, this is a no-brainer.
Huff should start most games at first base.
Montanez should start most games in left field.
Scott is a perfect choice for full-time DH because of his scientific approach to hitting.
I think this setup would please all three players because it would get them all a regular place in the lineup, and that pleasure would translate into even more production.
Montanez began as a shortstop. He's a good enough athlete for his defense to improve and he's the kind of guy who will work hard to improve it.
He showed that when he came up last season.
With him starting everyday, the Orioles will have another 25-home run guy, believe me.
Posted by: Bear the Birdfan | January 16, 2009 7:33 AM
If I have a choice between Montanez being a 4th OF on the Orioles and the starting LF on the Tides, I'll go with him playing everyday and trying to get better defensively while impressing everyone with his ability to hit AAA pitching. He's only been playing OF for three years (was drafted as a SS) and at times last year he looked lost.
Last season was the first where he was a plus offensive player. He needs to show he can do it again before the O's consider him a significant portion of the future.
Posted by: mstrchef13 | January 16, 2009 8:40 AM
What's wrong with Montanez serving as DH and spelling Scott in left on occasions. Last i heard the O's need his power and don't have a DH at this point on their roster. Knowing Trembley he will most likely mess it up some way.
Posted by: Nic | January 16, 2009 9:36 AM
I'm more interested in seeing Nolan Reimold in out outfield.
Posted by: Greg | January 16, 2009 10:12 AM
I'd like to see Montanez platoon with Scott in LF. It's a shame that his defense isn't suited to giving Jones a breather in CF once in a while. With Freel (also right handed) better suited to fill in defensively, Montanez looks like a 5th outfielder. Maybe he could get some DH work if Huff is our primary 1B.
Posted by: stanhouse | January 16, 2009 10:24 AM
Let competition in spring training decide who starts and who plays. I would give him every chance to win the 4th outfielder job, or platoon with Scott. It's Trembley's job to find the room and the best matchups. Having a little too much talent at a position is a good problem to have and one we haven't seen around here in a long time.
Posted by: TP Carroll | January 16, 2009 10:41 AM
With the versitale Ryan Freel and Chris Gomez, there's really no room for him. He's ability in the outfield is limited compared to our starters. And offensively, I don't see him as an improvement over the latter two I mentioned. He would serve well as a backup if we had a 4-man bench. But since Trembley wants to go with a 3-man bench, I think he'd be better off starting in Norfolk. Unless, of course, he tears it up in Triple-A and proves himself to be a better option over Gomez and Freel
Posted by: dave | January 16, 2009 10:49 AM
Unless Montanez can be the right handed hitting first baseman that the Orioles want to add, it's hard to see where he can fit. With the Orioles seeming to be leaning to a 13 man pitching staff, that only leaves twelve spots for position players. Eight starters plus Freel, Gomez and a number 2 catcher comes to 11, leaving just one spot for a right handed hitter to complement Huff at 1B/DH. Lou has a shot if they go with 12 pitchers, none if they go with 13.
Posted by: bob c | January 16, 2009 11:02 AM
I think Lou's main problem is his lack of defensive ability (nice arm but nothing else). The birds are looking for versatile players who can wear many hats. I will not argue with anyone that states he has the athleticism to play multiple positions, but the question is can he do it well?
Posted by: Brandon | January 16, 2009 11:05 AM
I believe we should trade Scott and Montanez and Reimold should battle for the starting left-fielder spot.
I like Scott, but he is adequate at best in the outfield and older then either of those 2 players.
Montanez and Reimold also have a significant upside, wheras Scott has reached his potential.
If Reimold or Montanez are not going to play, they need to be traded as they have nothing more to prove in the minor leagues.
Posted by: Don Smith | January 16, 2009 11:19 AM
The prediction of Montanaz hitting 25-30 home runs at AAA would be accurate if he palyed anywhere but Norfolk but the Tides home park is where home runs go to die. Montanez is likely to see a significant dropoff in SLG% due to park factor. I hope he doesn't find this too discouraging
Posted by: LJ | January 16, 2009 11:20 AM
If Huff winds up as the full time first baseman, either Lou or Riemold will get a shot on the 25 man roster to start the season to platoon with Scott in left and as DH.
Posted by: Jimbo | January 16, 2009 11:34 AM
I kke Montanez in LF with Scott at DH. Salazar deserves a shot backing up Huff at 1B, Mora at 3B, and Scott at DH. If Montanez fails you could give Reimold a chance and if Salazar does not produce you have Moore at Norfolk.
Posted by: Jimmy Conrow | January 16, 2009 11:39 AM
I agree. Lou should prove himself at the AAA level. But if he could hit for a decent av. as he did in his late-season O's stint and his defense is respectable, I would put him out there in rf everyday. As much as I like Luke Scott and his power, his numbers flagged badly in the latter part of the season, thus depriving us of baserunners and rbi's, which for the O's is key. Except for dh-ing, I would think Scott could be traded,....especially if the O's ( heaven forbid ) were to pick up Wiggington. And by the way, ...as injury prone as Mora is, I'd be ' all over ' this deal!
Posted by: Tom Kocher | January 16, 2009 11:52 AM
A 27-year-old crushed AA pitchers half his age. In other news, the sun rose in the east this morning.
I would put Montanez's odds of ever helping a major-league team do anything at somewhere in the 1% range.
Posted by: Andrew T. | January 16, 2009 11:56 AM
first off i am huge fan of luke scott and he came out out at the winter metings and said he is the healthiest hes been in 2 years but he was awful against lefties so i say u carry him to face tough lefties and give him some starts at dh as well to get another righty bat in the line up when huff is playing 1st base lou def has talent drafted by the cubs 3rd overall in 2000 i believe so give him a full year and see what he can do just my opinion
Posted by: greg | January 16, 2009 11:58 AM
P.S. No disrespect intended, but why on earth would you care whether Montanez plays every day or not? It's not like he's 20 and there's some sort of development to interrupt. He is what he is.
Posted by: Andrew T. | January 16, 2009 12:00 PM
Get him a first baseman's mitt. Get him a third baseman's glove. Have him report early and hit a million balls at him. He'd make a good utility man and we will need a third baseman soon. Mora is 38 and God only knows where last August and September came from.
Posted by: Carl Mogensen | January 16, 2009 12:32 PM
Montanez deserves his shot. Some DH, and left field. Put Huff at first.
A guy his age and with his performance last year deserves the chance to show if he can do it.
It may have taken Lou longer to figure it out, but it appears he just might have. Let's take the chance. He doesn't need to be at Norfolk. He needs the opportunity.
Posted by: Earl Weaver | January 16, 2009 12:41 PM
I think they should see what they can get for Luke Scott. Atlanta needs a left fielder, but I'm not sure what in their organization we could really use.
Posted by: Alex | January 16, 2009 12:56 PM
I love Lou!!! Give him the LF job, and have Scott traded, on the bench, or in AAA. I think Scott is limited in his potential whereas Lou has yet to reach his potential. He may be a late bloomer, and dating supermodels may cause some of that.
As one of those odd O's fans that watched the vast majority of games last year, it seemed to my untrained eye that Lou never forced his plate appearances while Luke was really forcing some of his.
I'd love to see the stats of Scott vs. Lou with RISP. Seems to me Lou was getting on base and moving people along much better than Scott was last year. I dunno.
I'm not a fan of Scott, and that may taint my perspective, but AM has said that Athleticism is a prime attribute the O's are looking for and building around; clearly Lou is more of the AM type player than Scott.
And by no means do I think Lou will repeat what he did during his call up. At the Majors, I can see him being a .290 20 and 20 stolen bases. If there is to be a trade of B-Rob, I'd like to see what Lou might do at the top of the order.
Posted by: paulie | January 16, 2009 2:06 PM
I think they need to trade Scott for some sort of pitcher. The O's say they want a righthanded first basemen. Why not try Montanez at firstbase and DH. He has infield experience playing shotstop previously. Then it free's up room for Reimold and Freel to platoon in left. As for stats .298 22HR 95RBI's
Posted by: john fernandez | January 16, 2009 2:08 PM
Can't understand the comments here about trading Luke Scott and putting Montanez in left??
Scott has stayed healthy and produced more pop for the O's and for less $$ than anyone on the roster
Montanez often looks lost in the OF - and he's 27 not 20 - so he's NOT a player in development. He's had 3 years in the OF already ... like someone said, he IS what he is
Scott IS a proven hitter and player, and man we missed him here in Houston last year
Just don't send Wiggy back here OK!!
Posted by: TxOFan | January 16, 2009 2:27 PM
If you want a RH hitting 1B/DH type, I'd put my eggs in the Oscar Salazar basket, not the Lou Montanez basket. The O's are likely to go with only 12 position players. Assume Zaun, Huff, Roberts, Izturis, Mora, Scott, Jones, and Markakis are your 8 in the field. Backup catcher, Gomez (utility IF), and Freel (utility OF) are 3 of the 4 left. The last spot needs to be a RH to spell Scott and/or Huff, and I'll take Salazar over Montanez. If Montanez burns up AAA and Salazar falters, it's easier to ditch Oscar and bring up Lou than the other way around.
Oh, and Reimold is (1) not ready for the majors, and (2) too highly regarded a prospect to bring up too early and have him sit as part of a platoon. Let him play all year at AAA and give Scott another full year to see if he's part of the problem or part of the solution.
Posted by: mstrchef13 | January 16, 2009 2:36 PM
If the O's are truly rebuilding, anyone paying attention knows they are, you trade Scott for more youth and use Montanez and Reimold.
Posted by: Jim | January 16, 2009 3:10 PM
I really liked what I saw last year. Good hustle, power and good contact. Made a few catches that ended up on Sportscenter even. He should make the team and get at bats, rather than go after some more 35 year old has beens.
Posted by: cb coach | January 16, 2009 3:22 PM
If he produces in the spring then I say give him a shot on the major league roster. The O's could rotate Huff, Scott, and Montanez between DH, LF and 1B. It worked for Earl with Roenicke and Lowenstein, maybe it will rekindlel some of that Oriole Magic.
Posted by: Jim Moser | January 16, 2009 3:28 PM
i liked to see montanez get a shot at lf/1b/dh. scott didn't hit lefties real well and with huff playing first the dh spot is open. i'd really like to see reimold, montanez and scott all on the team. you could use montanez at dh1b/lf and reimold at lf platooning with scott and playing some dh and scott in left and dh
Posted by: fkterp | January 16, 2009 3:54 PM
Montanez should be in majors this year provided he continues to shine in Spring training. Make Huff everyday 1B and shift Montanez around w/ all outfielders and Huff to share time at their respective psotions and DH. This way Montanez will have full year in majors and the other solid starters will rotate and get a break every now and then. the most important thing is that Montanez's bat is in the lineup.
Posted by: to | January 16, 2009 4:24 PM
Give him a shot during spring training and if he lights it up like he did last year, or holds his own, keep him on the roster and start him in LF, move Huff to first, and put Scott as DH.
Posted by: Bruce | January 16, 2009 5:09 PM
Some oeople just like calling Lukes name,but he's no youngster himself andwashorrible against left handing pitching.I say give Lou and Oscar at bats between DH and LF and occasionally first and jettison Scott for some yong arms.Luke is not all that gifted in the outfield either,saw a lot of balls drop in he should have gotten too.
Posted by: Burt from Essex | January 16, 2009 5:13 PM
Montanez will determine his own future. If he tears up in spring training, no way he doesn't make the opening day 25.I think it is going to come down to Montanez vs Salazar. Both are "older"RH hitting prospects.Both have pluses and minuses. I think Salazar is a worse fielder, but Montanez isn't so hot either. He could start at AAA and be called up when the 1st injury strikes.
Posted by: Oriole1952 | January 16, 2009 6:19 PM
Come on, Luke Scott is just 30 years old ... is that really much different from 27 ?? Don't think so ...
Scott was a big fan favorite here in Houston too - but I'd wager most O's fans like calling his name because HE HITS THE BALL and plays hard EVERY single day
Posted by: TxOFan | January 16, 2009 6:36 PM
LF at Camden Yards is a big place. Need good speed and instincts. Personally I like Lou and think he and Scott should share DH/LF duties.
Trembley is the issue though. He would rather play the vets then the young guys. Thats why we saw Payton more then Lou coming down the stretch.
Lou has 1st round talent. Might as well let him play. Its not like the O's are going for a pennant.
Posted by: XD23 | January 16, 2009 6:55 PM
Montanez is not a first baseman, never has, never will. He was a converted middle infielder that moved to the outfield because of defensive issues. I think the best you will see is him in left against lefties. and some DH time, could spot Jones in center like last year.
Posted by: cb coach | January 16, 2009 8:44 PM
The O's are going to have to field a team that can score the most runs to win. If that means Montanez, Salazar or Scott sharing time so be it. Rotate the DH if needed. Let them win their spot on the field. McPhail is probably going to make another move so the picture will get clearer by the end of spring. training.
I really don't see Freel in the picture for '09 especially if these three guys hit in the spring. Maybe Trembly can go with one less pitcher during April so that he can carry another position player.
Posted by: Jay Sheehan | January 16, 2009 9:23 PM
Give Montanez a try at 1B and DH and Reimold a good shot at LF and DH. It appears we can't afford Wiggington?, who can play 3B and 1B? Don't be surprise if Huff isn't gone by the All Star break.
Posted by: Steve H | January 16, 2009 9:55 PM
Hey Dean,
I think the O's should give Lou a good chance. Luke Scott isn't as fast in the outfield, let him DH give Lou the chance to play. Might not hurt to let him do a little 1St in spring training. If he has played short, he should have good hands. He could spell Huff. I am glad we bought back Gomez, never understood why he left.
Posted by: Richard Old O's fan | January 16, 2009 10:46 PM
I think Scott is expendable. Trade him for prospects and let Montanez start in LF and Freel be the 4th OF till Riemold is ready to come up and platoon w/ Montanez. We need youth not these 30+ guys. We obviously aren't gonna finish any better than 4th in the division so let the young guys play in the majors instead of wasting a year in the minors.
Posted by: Zach in ATL | January 17, 2009 1:47 AM
Put a first basemans mitt on him in Spring Training. As with older Oriole teams we had some inter-changable parts. Whether he plays left,first or Dh he should be given an opportunity or otherwise trade him. He's proven what he could possibly do last year, he's going to be 28 soon how much mire time will he have left ?
Posted by: pconway54 | January 17, 2009 7:42 AM
He should stay in dbl A ball until they think his hitting deserves a promotion . There's no need to rush his to the parent team unless there's an injury to one of the starters . If things continue as usual he'll be playing in the Majors this season . let's pray that he will be able to stay in the MINORS FOR ONE SEASON .
Posted by: Bob Cala | January 17, 2009 9:58 AM
I think we see how Lou plays in spring training, and if he plays well, then he is a good problem to have. Otherwise, you play him everyday in AAA. The organization should let him know that he is in their plans and will be keeping a close eye on his progress. If he cannot perform under that pressure, then he will never survive in the major leagues. I would just hate to abandon someone that won the triple crown in a shortened season. I don't care what level the accomplishment was achieved. He deserves a legitimate opportunity.
Posted by: Rell | January 17, 2009 10:57 AM
Why not give Montanez a shot on the O's this year? See what he can do with major league pitching. He can DH and platoon with Luke Scott in LF. It's not like the O's will be competing for the division title this year. It's more likely another last place finish, so why not see what this kid has got?
Posted by: NYO'SFAN | January 17, 2009 12:44 PM
If the O's rebuilding goals are to be competitive in 2012 the need to put promising youth like Montanez (aging youth) and Reimold .
I'd play Huff at first, DH Scott and give Montanez and Reimold both significant major league at bats out of left field to see what they have.
Posted by: Captive Fan | January 17, 2009 1:00 PM
i like Montanez as a platoon player with Scott in LF, a la Lowenstein/Roenicke. Think his defense is a little weak, though.
Posted by: John from Kensington | January 17, 2009 2:08 PM
You cannot give significant major league at bats to Nolan Reimold. He hasn't had a single at bat above AA. He needs the time at AAA, and wouldn't it be nice for a change for Norfolk to have some promising position players instead of Tike Redman and Luis Terrero.
Oh, and I don't know I would give Montanez the label of "promising youth". He was the 3rd overall pick in 2000. It took him six(!) professional seasons to make it out of A ball. For his 450 at bats at the AAA level, he's got an OPS of less than .700. Sure, he can crush AA pitching at age 27. Big deal. Do something with AAA pitching first and prove that the 100 at bats last year wasn't a fluke (and prove you can do better than 4 walks in 112 at bats while you're at it).
Posted by: mstrchef13 | January 17, 2009 2:17 PM
hey u do a good job. they should expand your columns and get rid of shmuck
Posted by: gbz | January 17, 2009 7:47 PM
I did not see any signs last year that major league pitching scared him. so I expect him to be in an O's uniform at the end of the season. maybe at the start.
Posted by: Will A | January 17, 2009 8:26 PM
The Orioles need to maximize any talent they have- whether it's to fill a key slot for the long run like Makakis and Jones, or showcase people and trade for prospects. Unless Wiggington or someone else is signed, put Huff at first and rotate Scott and Monanez between LF and DH. Trade one of them (a lot of teams are looking for a lefthanded bat) when Riemold is ready to take LF long term. Montanez looked like a natural hitter last season- he took the tough outside pitches to right. He should be able to meet or exceed Millar's production numbers and his batting average will be a lot better.
Posted by: G Hal | January 17, 2009 8:33 PM
I would rather see Reimold in the outfield he has more promise. Trade Scott we know what to expect out of him. I don't see what's wrong with an outfield of Jones, Nick and Reimold there young and could play together for a long time
Posted by: mike | January 18, 2009 12:17 AM
I think that he should be the DH, flip flopping in left field with Scott.
Posted by: Bill Bean | January 18, 2009 1:09 AM
Wouldn't surprise me to see Justin Christian make a big impact in ST and give Lou a run for the 4th OFspot.If not he'll be a good reserve at AAA.
Posted by: John | January 18, 2009 10:14 AM
Well, the Orioles just traded for Felix Pie. I would love to see Pie and Reimold in a platoon in LF, Scott to DH and Huff to 1B. Let Freel backup in the OF and IF, especially at 3B backing up the aging Mora.
Posted by: Rich | January 18, 2009 11:14 PM
I would only trade Scott, if we could get pitching. If that happened, then Montanez should be in Baltimore
Posted by: atl.o's fan | January 19, 2009 6:41 PM
Montanez will be in AAA most of the year he will have his call-ups due to injuries, but not make a big impact this year. Luke is going to DH against RHP so maybe we can find a spot for Lou as a platoon and a DH against LHP but doubt it.
He will have great numbers in AAA again but not much in the majors
Posted by: marshal | January 22, 2009 11:41 AM
If we lose Salazar because of Zahn it will be simply laughable. Stupid at the least. They could have gotten Soto from the Cubs last year. Lou hits righties just as good as lefties. Plus we all like to see him play. Oscar and Huff at first are perfect. Oscar can play a little 3rd and 2nd. Why lose him for Zahn ? STUPID!!
Posted by: Herb | January 23, 2009 3:01 AM