Predict the future -- Justin Turner
Last week, we discussed our expectations for Orioles outfielder Lou Montanez in 2009.
It seems like a lot of people think Montanez will succeed offensively this season, regardless of whether it’s in the minor leagues or major leagues. Still, several readers mentioned that he didn’t have great offensive statistics until last season. Those people would like to see the 6-foot-2, 185-pound outfielder repeat his numbers again in the minors before taking on a bigger role with the Orioles.
There were also more than a few comments about using Montanez in a platoon role with Luke Scott in left field. Of course, the Orioles acquired Felix Pie from the Chicago Cubs in exchange for left-handed pitcher Garrett Olson and minor leaguer Hank Williamson earlier this week, and Pie is expected to be the primary left fielder. So, I think many people will want to edit their projections for Montanez during the 2009 season.
With the Orioles picking up Pie, how do you think that affects Montanez in the upcoming season?
Speaking of trades, in case you forgot, the Orioles picked up two prospects along with utility player Ryan Freel in the deal that sent Ramon Hernandez to the Cincinnati Reds earlier in the offseason.
Let’s talk about one of the prospects – Justin Turner – during today’s discussion. I’m assuming most Orioles fans don’t know much about Turner, other than what I posted when the trade occurred.
Here is what MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo said about Turner following the deal.
The Reds selected the 5-foot-11, 180-pound infielder in the seventh round of the 2006 MLB draft.
Turner hit .338 with six home runs and 41 RBIs for the rookie-level Billings Mustangs during his first professional season in 2006. He had 12 stolen bases and 16 doubles in 60 games, while striking out 38 times.
The 24-year-old second baseman, who can also play shortstop, third base and in the outfield, batted .311 with 10 home runs and 59 RBIs in 117 games for the Single-A Dayton Dragons during the 2007 season. Turner had 25 doubles, four triples and 12 stolen bases for the Dragons.
Last season, Turner split time between the Single-A Sarasota Reds and the Double-A Chattanooga Lookouts. He hit .316 with 11 RBIs and 23 runs scored in 33 games for Sarasota before being promoted to Chattanooga. Turner batted .289 with eight home runs and 42 RBIs in 78 games for the Lookouts. He also spent some time on the disabled list after colliding with a teammate during a game in June.
Defensively, Turner has committed 31 errors in 294 minor league games. His worst season was in 2007, when he made 14 errors for Dayton. He made nine errors in 2008.
So, what are your expectations for Turner during the 2009 season? Depending on how the organizational depth chart shakes out during spring training, Turner could start the season with the Double-A Bowie Baysox or the Triple-A Norfolk Tides.
Personally, I’d like to see him as the starting second baseman for the Tides. He could solidify his position as the team’s top prospect at the position with solid offensive numbers in Triple-A. Turner could eventually be the replacement for Brian Roberts if the Orioles are unable to sign the veteran second baseman to a long-term deal.
I’m going to be optimistic and say that Turner will hit .300 with 10-15 home runs and 60-70 RBIs for the Tides. Look for him to be among the league leaders in doubles and runs scored.
Do you think Turner will establish himself as the successor to Roberts? Will he prove to be the most valuable piece of the trade that sent Hernandez to the Reds, or is he destined to spend the rest of his career in the minor leagues?
Let me know what you anticipate from Turner during the upcoming season.
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Check out previous installments of "Predict the future" by clicking on the links below:
• Jake Arrieta
• Brad Bergesen
• Brian Matusz
• Lou Montanez
• Hayden Penn
• Chris Tillman
• Matt Wieters
Comments
What about a move to shortstop?
Posted by: birdman | January 22, 2009 6:57 AM
I haven't been able to find out much about this kid's defence, but you've sure got to like his offensive numbers. He doesn't steal much, but hits for average, makes contact and draws walks. What's not to like?
Should start at AA, and if/when Roberts moves on, have a shot at being with the O's. I'd love to hear from anyone who knows more about this kid's glove.
Posted by: bob c | January 22, 2009 10:08 AM
It is going to be nearly impossible to replace Brian Roberts at second base, but this guy sounds like he has the stuff to be a good major league second baseman. I am going to venture the guess that he starts the year at Bowie and is with the Tides by mid-year.
Posted by: Daniel | January 22, 2009 10:22 AM
since schmuck is giving the chances of the orioles signing roberts at 25%, i'd have to agree with you that turner should start in norfolk. in fact, they might bat him at lead-off just for the experience. that , of course, would probably bring his rbi total to under 60.
the biggest question would be his health, given his reputed style of play.
i predict that he will be competing for the starting job at second next year and will probably land it.
Posted by: bellevue bob | January 22, 2009 12:09 PM
Yeah he looks good. We also have a guy named Greg Miclat, who I believe will develop into a Roberts-type player over time.
Posted by: Sean | January 22, 2009 12:17 PM
Hard to say never having seen him. His numbers look good. I have to wonder why the Reds were willing to give him up for Hernandez though. Was there some problem with him we don't know about, or are the Reds just long on young middle infielders?
Posted by: Desert O | January 22, 2009 2:17 PM
Yes we do read more than just your columns. Turner might fill the gap between Roberts and Miclat or whomever at second. I think the odds of the O's keeping Roberts are getting slimmer by the day. The question is do they trade him or take the Draft picks of Free Agency? If they trade him by mid-season then I guess Freel would fill in until someone like Turner proves they are ready.
Posted by: Nic | January 22, 2009 4:36 PM
First of all, you can not replace Brian Roberts. Second, this kid never played a full season above AA...and not too sucessfully (at least defensively). The O's are building a solid defensive team, so if Turner can't figure out how to catch and throw, he's destined to be a career minor leaguer. If the Tides have a weak infield roster this year, and I suspect they do, give Turner a shot to see how he responds. It's way to early to project anything for this kid, but I wish him the best.
Posted by: NYO'sFan | January 22, 2009 7:12 PM
Gotta say these are very lofty power numbers for a guy who hasn't shown that much power. The ball park in Norfolk is very difficult place in which to hit. However, I think Turner could succeed as a gap to gap doubles hitter. He's shown the ability to do that in the Red's system. I like him at second base too as a possible replacement for Brob.
Posted by: LJ | January 22, 2009 7:43 PM
If Roberts continues to hit and steal bases as well as provide solid defense the O's will be left with no alternative but to resign him if he wants in. Then Turner gets put in a package in a trade. If Roberts wants out then Turner "may" turn out to be more than a prospect.
Posted by: Jay Sheehan | January 22, 2009 11:22 PM
I would give him a full year at AA, then a full year at AAA, then bring him up, meanwhile using Freel at second. The one thing about Turner is that he has never hit below .300 in season, and I think AA's .289 is close enough to stay optimistic that the guy is going to hit. He reminds me of Pedoria, scrappy-defensive-great contact-little bit of power. -side note- the other guy we got in that trade Brandon Waring (Mora's future replacement) will be in a Home Run Derby before it is all said and done, this guy has a 100 in power on thebaseballcube.com's rating system,
Posted by: Justin Whitlock | January 23, 2009 9:11 AM
I don't think you have to worry about Turner's defense. He is one of the best middle infielders to ever play at Cal State Fullerton. Pedroia is a good comparison to Turner. I think he will open a few eyes in ST.
Posted by: Birdy Fan | January 23, 2009 12:54 PM
Looks like he'll eventually be in the bigs, whether it's at second or short remains to be seen, but I'd like to see someone with those kinds of defensive numbers stay in AA for a full season to get used to his range and learn when to just pocket the ball. If Roberts gets moved and he just absolutely tears it up in spring training, give him a shot midway through the season. If he continues to struggle defensively, leave him in AA this season and give him some time in AAA next season.
Posted by: Jimbo | January 23, 2009 1:47 PM
Pie, Jones, Markakis, Waring, Turner, ?1B, Weiters, Matusz, Tillman, Arrieta, 4th and 5th?, Jim Johnson, Chris Ray = World Series 2011? We could probably pencil in Aaron Crow as the 4th easily. I absolutely love this trading superstars for prospects idea, why have we not done this all along, instead of the opposite...trading all our farm for one player that usually spoils sooner or later? Go Andy Go!
Posted by: Justin Whitlock | January 23, 2009 5:17 PM
I think they will leave him in the minors to see what he can do. If he succeeds they will bring him up after the All Star break. Put Freel in at 2nd and trade Roberts. Let's get 3 more top prospects. Maybe we can trade Huff, Mora, and Sherrill too for even more prospects? Let's get a couple more top 5 picks in the draft and we will be loaded with talent.
Posted by: MIke | January 24, 2009 4:37 PM