My prediction is that he gets promoted sometime in the near future to a team that will lose Nick Markakis to free agency.

I'm surprised you don't expect Tillman at Norfolk. I think Arrieta will begin at Bowie, with a shot at a ML callup later in the season. With Patton and Albers possibly needing time in AAA for rehab, and Tillman, Bergesen, Hernandez and Berken probably moving up, Bowie makes more sense for Arrieta. The Orioles will see a number of debuts and have a lot of pitchers to evaluate. I don't see any reason to rush Arrieta. Daniel Cabrera may not have turned out any better otherwise, but rushing him from Bowie before he had worked out his delivery and control issues certainly didn't help him develop properly.

Arrieta does have to get his walks down, but at 4 per 9 innings he's not dangerously high. ML average is about 3.3 The more he can lower it the better, but a slight improvement will do.

Got to love his hits and Ks per 9 and the way he kept the ball in the park. He's got a tremendous upside and I look forward to seeing him in a start or two in September.

Let's hope he stays healthy and finds a change-up and command of the strike zone. Those two will give him a solid chance.

Based off of what I have heard I think Arrieta will be the best of all our current pitching prospects. Keep in mind he was also viewed as a first round tallent but slipped in the draft because of a certain agent who shall remain nameless (cough Boras cough) represented him and his singability was an issue. I think being selected to Team USA as the only single a player speaks volumes about his talent.

More oriole fan pain last place again

I saw Arrieta three times last year and must have seen three of his worst outings. He didn't seem in control or pitching with the confidence or velocity I'd expect from a fast track player.

When Liz pitched at Frederick it was clear he was a man among boys. Other then being a weak fielder, there didn't appear much he could really work on at Frederick because his mediocre control was hidden by his power and the impatience of A hitters.

So my personal limited scouting says Arrieta at Bowie for most of the year. To AAA to fill in behind the rotating cast of characters called up to the Os in desperation. A mid-2010 callup from AAA and after limited success, he hurts his elbow and misses all of 2011.

i think he'll win 512 games and break cy young's record for most career wins.

I agree. Jake starts in Bowie,( best baseball in Maryland), and moves up to Norfolk in June or July. Between the two teams, he gets about 13-15 wins. Combined era under 4. 140-155 k's. Hopefully he gets the walks down to a 40-60 total between the 2 teams. Hope to see him in b-more in sept for a couple of games.

Don't bring anyone up to the majors until he is mechanically sound and has consistent command over multiple pitches. Period. I expect Arrieta to finish the year in AAA unless his command gets dramatically better. Too much of a leap in one year to be a Septemeber call up.

I predict he moves up when he throws strikes on aregular basis. That is the difference between the bigs and the bushes.

Seem like just last year that the O's once had a young pitcher that was full of potential but couldn't learn to control his pitches or his temper.

Hope springs eternal

Alex hit it right on the nose. MacPhail can at least make some sort of case for anything he has - or has not - accomplished.

But there is absolutely no possible excuse for our not having signed Markakis, and after seeing what happened with Tex, he is likely to join him in New York - with Matt Wieters shortly behind - as soon as he is able.

As for Arietta, he's going to be the best of the bunch, and he too will leave ASAP when the O's try to lowball him.

Markakis is under contract until 2011. I'm sure he'll start (Arrieta) at Bowie and potentially get bumped up to AAA Norfolk if someone struggles. I don't think we'll see him in Baltimore this season though. Maybe late next year if he earns it.

If his control is better, he will be with the O's in Sept, he will stick the O's in 2010.

I'm really liking these prospect discussions.

I think the O's view Arrieta as relatively advanced, so I expect to see him in Norfolk by the end of the season. How soon he arrives depends on how smoothly he adjusts to AA--for most players that's the biggest step up until they reach the majors.

Dean, like you I've been expecting Tillman to open at Bowie again. But I'm not so sure now. Pitching coach Mike Griffin has been moved from Bowie to Norfolk, and since Tillman is probably his No. 1 project, I think that may have been done in part so that he could follow Tillman.

And AAA won't be a much more challenging level for him, especially playing his home games in that park. It's probably as good a place as any to work out the rough spots.

How is 6 years 60 mil. a low ball offer,when the MVP Pedroia signs 6 years 40.5 mil?

Neither Roberts nor Markakis want to be here.Get to work Andy and make a couple more fantastic trades as you did last year.

Until all of our minor league pitchers have the control they need to pitch at the ML level, leave them in the minors.

Markakis can still be signed. I guess you guys don't ready the papers that BOTH parties said lets wait a few months.....the nay-sayers are out today and on a Jake Arieta page no less.

Arrieta is a potential #1 and should be treated like it. At worst he will be a 3 in the big leagues, in 2010/11.

I think that Jake will stay at Bowie for duration of the year. I don't think a call up in September would be a good move, unless of course he dominates tremendously.

Also as before mentioned Nick is under contract till 2011, don't panic. Weiters isn't going anywhere soon either. With this young crop of pitching
and who knows what will happen. If the team shows improvement these guys will stick around.

Lastly, GET OVER TEX! Did you hear what his said at his press conference??? He was thinking Yankees all the way. He never wanted to come here. New York has a lure to these guys that Baltimore doesn't have. We build from the ground up, the Oriole Way is coming back. There's no room for whinning!

About the only thing Arrieta has to prove at frederick is that he can get less walks, He can do that at Bowie.
Let him start there and earn his way to AAA. Injuries happen so It will be a quick promotion, but I think you still need to force these guys to learn control before you bring them to the majors.

For those who think Arrieta's 4 walks per nine innings is at least "not dangerously high" fail to realize is that is 4 walks per inning against MINOR league batters, and A ball level players at that, i.e. people who are swinging at just about anything--the ball, flies, gnats, batteries thrown from the stands--that comes across home plate. It's a problem even for pitchers who have very low levels of walks in the minors; remember how everyone seemed so baffled by how Olson walked so many people when he did the exact opposite in the minors? It's because major league hitters are ALOT more disciplined at the plate than minor leaguers, that's why they're in the majors! That don't swing at the stuff the guys in the minors do and that leaves the pitchers thinking, geez, what do I do NOW, these guys aren't going after pitches I would have struck guys out with in A ball. All you can do is practice, practice, practice, throwing strikes and hope their talent rises to the occasion when they take the mound at Oriole Park, cultivating the savvy that makes the difference between a THROWER and a PITCHER. As Jim Palmer once said, the key to getting men out isn't really to throw strikes--it's to find a way to trick the opponent into swinging at balls. That requires moving the pitch around the edges of the strike zone, up and down, in and out, and pinpoint control which pitchers need to be working on from the first day they pick up a baseball with the audacious belief they can throw it past someone. I remember a game Jim Palmer threw at old Memorial Stadium in 1982, his come back season when he won 15 games, against the Twins with nothing--and I mean NOTHING--but his fastball. He threw a ONE hitter. How? By having command, by moving his pitches all over, down and away, up and in, always right in or on the periphery of the strike zone, slowly widening the area out so guys were flailing at pitches outside the zone. THAT's pitching. That's what these kids have to be able to do. So good luck, Jake, and to all the other youngsters we've all been writing our predictions about!

Lets get Ryan Keefer off the Bowie roster and let him start doing middle relief for the O's.
If not include him in a deal so he gets his break elsewhere.

He should start at Bowie and at mid season go to Norfolk. Who knows in Sept, maybe the O's. He will stick with the O's sometime in 2010.

I like Arrieta for Bowie for 2009. He has pitched only one season so far. Norfolk will have a big jam up of pitchers in 2009 and Arrieta will get starts in Bowie.

Jake should start the year at Bowie so he can work on his control. If he can dominate there he deserves a promotion to Norfolk. There is no way he should be called up to the majors in September. What is the sense? Let him spend the year between AA and AAA. I'd want him to have MUCH BETTER control of his pitches prior to him seeing a day of MLB. If he continues to progress this year, invite him to Spring Training in 2010 and project him for a starting slot on the O's in 2010.

The fact is the Orioles will need him at double A all year. Somewhere close so they can keep an eye on him. If he does not get on the big club (if you want to call the O's that) should happen next year, if it does not happen by the time he turns 24 I will be shocked. But with the Orioles nothing shocks me. I think you can trade the Bowie starting rotation from last year to take the place of the Orioles rotation and you will get the same result.

I covered Arrieta some while he was in college. The walks and pitch counts were always his Achilles' heel. I remember a game he threw against Oral Roberts in which he went 7 or 8 innings and still threw 120 pitches. The final score was just 2-1, so he found his way out of jams.
His strength is really key though and I think if his arm stays in good form he could become a solid No. 3 starter down the road. If the improvements to the control don't come along, he could find himself to be another Jason Windsor.

Arrieta is poised for Bowie. That's exactly where he should go. If all goes well maybe a promotion to Norfolk. At least 2010 for him.

The issue the Orioles have had over the last five years is they either delove young talent too slow or rush the talent too fast. There has not been a happy meduim. I beleive jake is ready to compete fro Norfolk and would do just a fine as anyone. He is one year away from being making the MLB as Tillman. He gained alot of experience pitching in the Bejiing and the future stars. He is ahead of Berbeson, Berken and Hernandez. He is one of teh top five prospects in the organization along with Tillman Areta Weiters Snydor Reimhold