I'd say you're pretty close there. I'm still kinda on the wall on whether I would like to see him get a cup of coffee at the end of the season. I guess it would depend on just how well he does and how the team is doing at that point.

Matusz will have a successful career, where as soon as he can become a free agent he will sign with the New York Yankees to be like his chilhood hero - Ron Guidry.

If he gets hitters out in spring training, I could see the O's starting Matusz out in Bowie. There is some credence to the idea that top flight NCAA baseball is equivalent to the AA level, plus he showed well against top level AA and AAA prospects in the AFL. However, unless he totally dominates at Bowie for half a season and then at Norfolk for the rest of the season, I do not want to see him in an Orioles uniform until 2010 at the earliest.

LET HIM SHOW WHAT HE CAN DO IN SPRING TRAINING. LOOK AT BRANDON MARROW OF THE MARINERS.. HE PRODUCED IN SPRING TRAINING AND HE MADE IT TO THE MAJORS HIS ROOKIE SEASON...IF THE KIDS CAN PLAY PLAY THEM...GUYS LIKE HENDERKISON HAS PROVEN HE CAN WINS 5 TO 8 GAMES A YEAR...

I think he is already a five pitch pitcher with good college experience behind him. Wouldn't be surprised to see him in Baltimore in 2010, and have an "organizational pitcher of the year" kind of year this year. I think he's much more mature as a pitcher than most coming to this level.

I think that the ideal place for Matusz to start out would actually be Bowie, regardless of his spring performance, with an eye on a complete April to September in 2010 at Norfolk, where he'd be expected to be a league leader in K's.
Being worried about 'the fast track' eventually hurting his chances is much less of a concern with a guy who was a dependable part of a rotation in college, and Dean outlined the increase in his innings load from freshman to junior. I think that if he shows less of a need for improved command at Bowie, meaning he dictates counts and has more K's than innings by a signifiacnt margin by August that he should be bumped up to Norfolk to finish out '09. A cup of coffee and around 10 big league IP for him in the last season of the bigs wouldn't hurt either. This guy's been better than his peers (similar to Wieters) at every level, and his stats may show that he deserves to test his stuff to about 20-30 MLB hitters.
I like the Orioles trades and recent draft picks and am optimistic about players such as Wieters, Jake Arrietta and Adam Jones, but I have more of a hunch that Matusz will be the rotation's linchpin when everything shakes out in a season or 2, or 3

Though many believe Matusz might have been "major league ready" when he was drafted, he obviously is not. I don't think we will, or should, see him in Baltimore until mid 2010 or out of spring training in 2011. Give him a full season at single A and double-A. Then at least a month or two at Norfolk before bringing him up. All this will do is strengthen his arm and sharpen his off-speed pitches.

There is no reason to rush Matusz and the O's under MacPhail haven't been rushing their top prospects so I would look for Matusz to start at Frederick and maybe get a bump to Bowie after the All-Star break if he is dominating A ball, like an ERA under 3 type dominating. He'll probably start next year in the minors and make his debut with the O's in the middle of next year. He should permanently be in the rotation at the start of the 2011 season (knock on wood).

Your Very optimistic, I say he is with Frederick till the Break, but then is in the Pen at Bowie. Next year Bowie all season. The following start at Bowie , quarter of the year there then the rest of the year in Norfolk, with the possibility of a late season call up. Year four 4, 5th starter or Pen

He needs innings in the minors. They should leave him in A-ball unless he is flatout smokin!

He will start a Frederick then move to bowie at mid year and dominate. I think next year he makes the team out of spring training. He will be a 1 or 2 in our rotation and then a 1 or 2 in the Yankees rotation.

I think he starts at A and after about 4 or 5 starts, when it is realized he should have started at Bowie, he gets moved up to Bowie. He pitches there all year, does well and gets an invite to spring next year. Then he spends a couple months at Bowie before going up to AAA in 2010. At the end of the year, he gets a call up and that's the last he sees of the minors barring rehab assignments.

On another note, I think we'll see Zach Britton somewhere around the middle of 2011.

Scott,

Why in all that is holy would you put Matusz in the pen at Bowie??? That makes no sense!!!

The guy is a starting pitcher who pitched great in college, which is pretty much the equivalent of AA. Putting him in the pen does absolutely nothing for his development.

Disagree about him starting at Single A. I think he should spend the whole year in AA Bowie. His past experience in NCAA and AFL should put him in AA, and I think AM mentioned that nothing breeds success like success. Being on the winning team in Bowie is a good place for him to develop I think. AM has also talked about bringing up prospects "together" to create a competitive spirit.

Brian with Tillman in AA is a good think as they can learn from one another and grow comfortable with one another and laugh at the K's pilled up. They can compete against one another for the 2011 #1 and #2 rotation spots.

He should post solid K numbers and works on pitch selection and location. It would be great to see a return to a culture of winning. Meaning, let a few of these top guys play together in the minors and win. That way they will develop a winners mentality. And then when they do start turning pro, then they won't be as easily sapped by the jaded veterans.

If he does real well in the spring, you have some tough decisions to make. Single A otherwise is where he should start.

Our four top starters in Bowie last year with their ERA's: Hernandez (2.68), Tillman (3.18), Bergesen (3.22) and Berken (3.58). In Frederick, our top starter was Arrieta (2.87). If Matusz puts up the ERA's you suggest, I'll consider that a big disappointment.

Let him start at Frederick. Move him up when he can CONSISTENTLY throw strikes by which I mean 1-2 walks per nine innings. Win/loss doesn't matter at the minors because you can be a great pitcher with an absolute horrible team. It would be nice to see a 2.5-1 or 3-1 strike out to walk ratio before moving him, or any pitcher, up. Thanks for asking.

I agree with you. Frederick then bowie with 12 wins between the two. A short stint at AAA in 2010 then a call up to the O's. He will then settle in as a average #2 starter. When he becomes arbritation eligible, the O's will go cheap and not sign him long term. He will go much the same route Roberts is and evenutally Markakis and Weiters. Look for him to sign with the Mets, Yankees or Boston when he is FA eligible. He will want to be on a contending team and will opt to move on. BUT WE HAVE A "PLAN"

The fact he was send to AFL instead of Hawaii bolds well.

Probably start at A to get some early success and build confidence.

Should he dominates at AA, then a Sept call-up becomes a good possibilty

Whatever happened to "hope springs eternal in each human breast"? Wow, the Baltimore naysayers and doom- and-gloomers are really out this season! A kid like Matusz hasn't thrown his first official pitch in the O's minor league system and already these snarks are having him sign with the Yankees. Geez! There was a time, not oh so long ago, that good to great players wanted to play in Crabtown, the Oriole Way, even in old Memorial Stadium. Hasn't following baseball taught patience to any of you? Baseball is a game of failure (granted, the O's and fans have had more than their share recently), and as Tony LaRussa said in George Will's "Men at Work," the best team in the majors wins 3 out of five games; the worst team wins two out of five. The line between success and failure is pretty danged thin. Give these kids a chance, give MacPhail a chance, even give Peter Angelos a chance to change. If George Steinbrenner did it, PA can do it.

Over MT in pinstripes and ready to roll!

On a related note, has anyone seen enough of Sean Gleason to see him as a genuine prospect? I saw him in Salisbury this summer while sitting right behind home plate. He threw hard and showed control. What does the organization think of him?

Doesn't really matter b/c as soon as his time in the majors start just like that stud catcher we have. They'll just go to the Yankees, like every other player.

I'm confident that Matusz will be a strong contender to start for the O's going into the 2010 season.

If Matt Wieter is the example of how this front office will handle Div 1 talent, he goes to Frederick for at least a 1/2 season. Let him experience some professional success and then move him along! While he pitched pretty well in Arizona after a considerable competitive layoff, I think we shouldn't rush him too fast as others in the system are ahead of him and it should all work out. If he is in the rotation on opening day 2011 we should be very thankful!

I am hoping Matusz hits Single-A by storm. Since he's a college pitcher it's not absurd to see him dominate at lower A-ball. I couldn't predict wins and/or ERA but I'd be looking for a 10+ K/9 and a 2.0-2.5+ K/BB and 7-8 H/9. John Maine did as much too coming out of NC. The general rule with college guys is to expect them to breeze through until AA ball. Depending on when he gets promoted, I can see Matusz struggle a bit in Bowie at first but finish with a strong stretch.

Matusz will be pitching with the Orioles sometime in 2012. There's no way to tell how effective he'll be at the major league level until he at least begins to pitch at the AA level. He still has one or two issues he needs to work on to be successful.

I am making a BOLD prediction. I love my Orioles, but Hayden Penn will win no more than 1 game for the Major League (term used lightly) Orioles in 2009. I believe that Penn will be out of baseball by the end of the 2010 season. If I were a betting man, I'd bet something like purchasing a billboard ad of Dean Jones' or Peter Schmuck's choice.

Warm weather in Fla. will bode well for him until he gets to Frederick. Once there it will take him a while to get it together before he shows his stuff and then they ship him to Bowie. Don't look for him in Baltimore until 2010 mid-season at the earliest. The same time as Arrieta!

You have got to be kidding me. His Arizona record was not that impressive and was really better than the actual results.He needs a couple of years to show if he has anything. He will not be the first #1 draft pick that pays little or no dividens. I hope he makes the Team by 2012,

One other point on projecting young pitchers ....how many number 1 or 2 draft picks never even get a cup a coffee in the bigs.

Why not start him on the Orioles? the orioles pitching is TERRIBLE! our offfense was actually decent-goodish last year, it was our pitching that fell through.. even guthrie was disappointing.. this guy should start, will probably get 10 wins.... but, i have lost all faith in the orioles.. my dad and i, who have endured the os through thick and thin, have finally given up on the orioles.. tex wanted to play here, but we didnt offer him enough lets face it, they dont want to win

AA Bowie starting staff 2009 :

Tillman
Arrietta
Spoone
Matusz
Zagone

Dave Pritz, Brandon Erbe will be in the Bowie rotation. .

I agree that Zagone may be a quick mover, but I don't think that they will skip him two levels.

And unfortunately I don't believe that Matusz starts there either. I could see them both at Frederick, though, with Sean Gleason and Zack Britton.

Pedro Beato and Tim Bascom are still in the picture somewhere.

Let me try:

Bowie: Tillman, Arietta, Erbe, Spoone, Beato (?).

Frederick: Matusz, Britton, Gleason, Bascom, Zagone(?), Luis Noel (?). Also John Mariotti could move up from Delmarva; he looked good in his half-season there in 08, and at age 24 he needs to move along.

That's a couple of impressive MiL rotations. Crowded, too. A couple of pretty decent arms may end up getting bumped to the pen.

It would not hurt to start at Frederick, David Price of the Rays started at class A last year and it worked out for him, all the way to the World Series.

I think pitching THAT well in three years of major college ball warrants starting him at Bowie. From everything I've read, the guy is fairly polished and has excellent control for his age. He sounds like a AA candidate to me.

Brian Matusz is Tim Lincecum lite. In the end, I agree with one of the other writer's who said to throw him out there in spring training, and see if he can make the major league squad like Brandon Morrow, like Lincecum, like Jered Weaver, like David Price.

I think you'll find that Matusz is actually one of the best pitchers in the entire organization.

-Chris

We're talking about prospects for the future and I'm getting tired of thinking about the future . What this team needs is now thinking . I'm running out of time just like the Birds . we need a competative team now , not next year or the year after but now . Let's talk about those people who will be on the Major League roster this year and be able to perform as big leaguers .