I would rather have 27 walks in 147 innings without being overpowering than the power arm that Daniel Cabrera and his control problems had.

If one takes Bill James theories seriously, Berguson likely won't have a major league career. In 5 years in the minors, he's averaging less than 6 ks per nine innings, and last year less than 5. That number will drop even further in the majors. There are exceptions to the rule of course, but it just isn't likely.

berguson gets a lot of ground balls. he is overshadowed by the like of matusz, tillman, arrieta, and maybe a few others. he seems like a solid guy, but his success with the O's depends on how super the other pitching prospects turn out to be. my guess is that he will end up being a middle reliever in Baltimore this year or next.

While, I agree that Bergesen isn't one of Baltimore's top pitching prospects I do expect him to fair better against the triple A competition than you propose. The main reason he's intriguing to me is that he has great control while Tillman and Arrieta both need to improve upon that. And as seen with Olsen, Cabrera and Liz control can take time to master. The higher up you go the more patient hitters you face.

If he's able to maintain his immaculate control he'll put away hitters one way or another, whether it's ground balls, fly balls, or strikeouts. I'll just be glad if he doesn't walk the entire opposing lineup.

Because Norfolk's offense isn't so hot I don't think he'll win many games. My prediction for him at AAA Norfolk is 8-5 with an ERA of 3.85

For every pitcher there hopefully is a time when everything just clicks. It's possible that Bergesen has found his groove and will continue to progress. It's also possible this kid had one terrific minor league season. I say put him to the test and start him at AAA. He might have a tough time at first, but let's find out what we've got. He could be a diamond in the rough.

This sounds a lot like the guy we had a few yrs ago named Stephens, good control, not much "power." It also could be a Josh Towers clone. Right now I say don't expect much, hope for more and give the guy a chance. He soulds a lot better than some guys we have, DC, all arm no head?? I would rather have a control guy than another Steve Dalkowski anyday. Did anyone think Stu Miller threw hard?

I was trying to find his gb/fb stats but couldn't. However, Baseball Reference listed his defensive statistics. In the past two seasons he had 59 assists, including 40 last season. Considering that almost all assists from pitchers are on comebackers, that is an indication of how severe his groundball/flyball splits are. That, combined with his control, makes me think he'll be pretty successful at the major league level in the Carlos Silva mold.

Reminds me of a good pitcher that was lightly regarded by the O's and given away to the Mets.....John Maine anyone?

Strikeouts are over-rated. Bergeson is a control pitcher who throws the ball over the plate (interesting concept for someone in the O's system). He will thrive with a team who has a solid infield defense and speedy, athletic outfielders. The O's are too quick to give up on prospects who "don't throw hard enough" like a John Maine...

It really depends on where Tillman, Arrieta, Matusz, Hernandez, Berken, and Penn start. On one hand I am tempted to say leave him with the solid core of pitchers from last year and breed a winning attitude. But the Orioles are in need of pitchers who dont walk 5 batters in 5 1/3 innings. He is probably a back of the rotation guy but could have a decent career in the Majors if he keeps getting those ground balls. Doenst he throw a sinker and a "heavy fast ball?"

All that said he will start the year in AA (barring a terrific ST) and then will move up to AAA if the success continues. But I wouldnt dismiss the notion that he might get a callup September especailly if the starters are only pitching 4 innings. I dont seem him as being perceived as a "prized pitcher" by the FO so a ML callup sooner rather than later is probable.

Bottom line: Bring him up and let him pitch.

For one thing, he's earned it. For another, there is no better way than letting him rip in order to find out what the kid has to offer, is there?

Stats are driven by defense and position player strength as much as pitching prowess.

The standard thirst these days is for K's and speed. Sorry. I'll take Boddicker, McGregor and Ballard any day over guys like Riley, Cabrera, etc.

And, I'd rather see annual improvement like Bergesen exhibits instead of the inconsistency exhibited in the past by guys like Loewen and Penn.

At the very least, Bergesen could be an intriguing bridge to get us to Matusz, Arrieta and Tillman.

I do realize he could end up like Olson though. But, its more fun watching a Bergesen than it is watching Hendrickson or Trachsel.

If the team is going to lose at least make it interesting.

I'm sorry but I have to say they will be lucky if they don't have one of the worst records in the league this year

He is the one guy that you should give a shot to. He is not considered a top prospect and he has command of his pitches. If it does not work at least it was him and not one of their higher prospects.

It sounds like he has improved at every level after getting settled in. If he has a bad first half in norflok and a good second half, I would think he'd get a shot at the roster in 2010

Ideally, Bergesen should start the season at Norfolk. But there are maybe ten higher rated prospects who will be placed around the minors before they slot Bergesen. He will be placed where he can get the starts or the bullpen innings that he needs. Hopefully that will be Norfolk. He may be only a few months away from going to Baltimore, maybe like the Johnson promotion in 2008. Depends on if he pitches like 2008 or not.

I think Bergesen could be very, very good, if the Orioles are patient with him. First, the comparisons to John Stephens and Josh Towers are not warranted, since Bergesen is a sinker ball pitcher and those two guys were not. They both had good control like Bergesen, but they gave up HRs at a higher rate. Look at Bergesen's minor league record and you will see he doesn't give up HRs. It is better to compare what Bergesen has done so far to other sinker ball pitchers, such as Roy Halladay, Brandon Webb, Derek Lowe and Jake Westbrook. All four of those guys showed great control and gave up few HRs, but had high ERAs early in their minor league careers because of the number of hits they gave up. Basically, they were perfecting the sinker ball pitch, as well as developing other pitch options. While Bergesen's numbers are not as good as Halladay's, who moved quickly through the minors, his stats do match up with Webb's numbers and, I would say, are slightly better than Westbrook and Lowe's numbers at similar stages in their respective careers. So, if Bergesen starts pitching well in AAA, I would call him up, since that is probably a sign he has perfected the sinker and has developed at least one other pitch option. One other thing about sinker ball pitchers--they have fewer arm injuries than most other types of pitchers. That's why Lowe, who is not overwhelming, was one of the best pitchers last year and is highly sought after as a free agent, even at the age of 35. Oh, it also helps to have a good defensive infield behind a sinker ball pitcher.

I believe Bergesen could be a very good pitcher at the major league level because he has great control, changes speeds well, and will be even better with a good defense behind him. Not all great pitches have to be strike out artists Dean : ). ALso, to all you people throwing Olson under the bus; remember he came through the system at a very fast pace. Give him some time and watch and see him improve.

Why does everyone act like Garrett Olsen's career is over after he was rushed to the majors and has had one bad year? Anyway, I don't think the Orioles are in any kind of position to not give someone a chance. I think a lot of people hit the nail on the head when they mentioned John Maine. It is time for the O's to stop making stupid mistakes with young players.

if beregeson pitches really well in spring training why not give him a shot in the rotation. the lack of strikeouts is no big deal. if you have good control and can get guys to groundout on your pitch you throw less pitches in a game than those who are strikeout pitchers. you really only need a strikeout with a man on third and no outs or one out. if guys like lou hernandez, reimold, beregeson, berken, penn and weiters have great spring trainings how can you send them to the minors if they play their way onto the team. time to play young guys who will form the foundation of the major league club. no need for some 35 yr old over the hill the free agent to fill in a spot on the roster.

The O's will contiue to baby the young pitchers until they're 30 years old making their ML debuts. They're not going to get better unless they're challenged.

Of the top 50 free agents did the O's get even 1??? What a joke!

Maybe I missed it but does anyone know what sort of stuff he throws? How hard? I'm assuming he has a good sinker but how are his other pitches? I'm not sure I can make a fair prediction with only stats and no scouting info. And, can we stop caring about wins? They don't mean anything; they shouldn't even be mentioned.

I'm also confused why people think Olson is done. Many pitchers, great and/or solid, have a bad first year. His minor league numbers were great and he just has to learn how to translate what he did there to the majors. Of course, for many, that never happens. My prediction: Olson goes 10-10 with a 4.25.

Bergesen's low K rate will get lower in the majors, so low that it will be almost impossible for him to have a long MLB career.

It's not enough to avoid walks -- you have to miss bats, too, or you give up too many hits. Even pitchers that we think of as control/groundball pitchers had decent strikeout rates when they came up.

The home field at Norfolk will help him out, though. 3.80 ERA this season

You're absolutely right PhilF. As I mentioned earlier on this thread, Bill James has done extensive statistical analysis on the subject of stikeouts. It is as rare as hen's teeth for a pitcher with lower than 5Ks per 9 innings to have any kind of signifigant major league career.

It's true as v mcmahon says that you don't need to be a strikeout artist to succeed in the majors but only to a point. Stats show that the point is reached when you slide below 5 Ks per 9 innings. One can wish that wasn't so but would would be ill advised to bet money on it.

If I recall Joe Nuxhall was only 15 years old when he pitched in his first major league game for the Cincinnati Reds in 1944. He did not do well and was sent down to the minors for a few years.

The early major league start and loss did not hurt him long term because he returned to the majors and finally ended up with a 135 - 117 win loss record and an ERA of 3.90

Most ball player really believe they can play at the major league level TODAY, and they will tell you so, if they are given a chance.

I think it would be a good thing to give these up and coming pitchers a spot start now and then at the major league level. Bring them up two at a time to share a start when there is a spot for them. Let them see first hand IF they are ready to play at this level. I think they would go back down with a better view of what they needed to do to get ready to pitch at the major league level and a better attitude about doing it. This practice would also give an extra days rest for the regular pitchers

Another young pitcher to do quite well in the majors was Lindy McDaniel who was 20 years old when he made his major league debut. He ended up #41 among the 50 top relief pitchers.

The Orioles' will struggle along forever with a Daniel Cabrera at the major league level and appear to be less long suffering with others who show a lot more willingness to make changes in order to improve. I guess the trend is the "big hard throwers" get more time than the average not so hard throwers. Bobby Chance wouldn't get a second look today.

I watched D. Cabrera for years and on almost all, if not every pitch after his release of the ball he would draw up like an old toad in fear of the ball being hit back his way. As a tall man he also humped up on the mound when he made his delivery as if he was in a room with a low ceiling. He certainly was not fearful of a good fight but it always appeared to me that he was scared to death of the ball coming back at him. If he ever gets over that particular fear and begins to stand tall on the mound he could be a very good pitcher.

A few comments.

Bergesen will start at Norfolk, not at Bowie. He has done everything he needs at AA.

I agree that Bergesen is probably as close to ready as he's going to be. But the Orioles already have a lot of unproven young pitchers ahead of him who need a good look, so under the circumstances he might as well pitch half a season or more at AAA.

To the poster who mentioned Boddicker, McGregor, and Ballard... Those are three very different pitchers. Boddicker actually had a pretty good strikeout rate through most of his career, around 6 K/ 9 innings.

McGregor is the rare example of a pitcher who succeeded without throwing a lot of strikeouts. But even he averaged 4 K/9 through most of his career, and he did it while playing with some excellent defenses behind him.

Meanwhile Bergesen's K rate has gone done at each new step through the minors, and was at 4.4K/9 at AA. In the majors it's reasonable to expect that he'll be even lower, probably down around 3K/9 based on the higher quality of hitters. It's hard to find anyone who has been successful with that kind kind of strikeout rate.

That brings up Ballard. His K rate was right around what Bergesen's will probably be. Unfortunately, Ballard wasn't a very good pitcher. He had one good season (1989) when his ERA was better than league average. But every other year he was worse than the league average ERA.

His overall career (7 seasons, four as a starter, 41-53 record, 4.71 ERA in a time when the league average was under 4.00) is about what I expect from Bergesen.

Obviously I would like to see him have much more success, for as long as he's in a Baltimore uniform. I just don't expect it unless he somehow finds a way to miss more bats.

Everyone wants overpowering pitchers, strikeout kings and such! Well have you ever heard of Greg Maddux? How about Jaime Moyer? In today's MLB, flamethrowers and speedy/fast players are all the talk. If Brooks Robinson was a prospect today, he would NEVER be given an opportunity because he was too slow and didn't hit for power numbers as a thirdbaseman. Lets not prejudge this young man, following his time in AAA we will see if he has the metal to succeed in MLB

I still think Daniel Cabrera was too young and too cheap to let him go. So he has control problems, he also has some great pitches and you can't tell me the number two starter on the o's rotation right now is any better than this guy. You can't teach a guy how to throw a 97 mph fastball but you can watch him mature and throw strikes. Randy Johnson was very wild in his 20's too. I think letting Danny get away will wind of being a big mistake and all the people who bashed him and wished him gone will probably be the same people that slam Andy for letting him go a few years from now

Bob C, Bergesen averaged 5.05 Ks per 9 innings at age 22 in 2008 and 6.47 Ks per 9 innings at age 21 in 2007. I think he is hitting the Bob James threshhold.

Here is a link to a Baseball Analysts article that says Ks per batters faced is absolutely important, but also important is a pitchers % of ground ball outs to batters faced is also important. http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2008/03/categorizing_pi_3.php
I think it might explain why sinker ball pitchers, like Bergesen, who get a high percentage of ground ball outs, can be effective pitchers without a high percentage of strike outs.

I expect Bergesen to pitch at AAA. He'll do better than Penn- Penn was hurt and is not a sinkerball pitcher like Bergesen. A lot of his success or lack of it will be in how good his infield defense is and whether he gets any run support. I'd look for 10-8 with a 3.55 ERA.

Sinkerballers with good command can be successful in the majors, the guys like Olson and Buress try to be too fine; get behind in the count; and either walk the the hitter or groove one and get killed.

Like the previous guy mentioned. Control pitchers get no love in this day and age. Sonnanstine from the rays is a control guy and he's done a good job in Tampa. Wang doesn't record too many strikeouts for the yankees and his career has been good up until now. Let's give this guy some credit. As for his stats for the year he will start in AAA going 6-4 with a 3.89 ERA before being called up to the majors. He'll go 5-5 with a 4.79 ERA to end the year in the majors.

Bergesen throws strikes and his sinker is solid.

Olson's stuff is short and his command is "shorter".

I take Bergesen anyday over Olson.

I would HOPE that the Orioles promote him to show that control is valued more highly than "a live arm"
because it takes both to make it in the big leagues. a 100 mph fastball is hard to hit but there are people on every team that can. While control pitchers just have to fool the hitter and paint the corners when they can.

Suggest you read Bill james. it appears pitchers with great control can do quite well in the bigs.

To answer the question as to the likelihood of success for Bergeson at the ML level, I took a look at stats from last year posted at MLB.com.

In the AL, MLB lists 68 pitchers with 15 or more starts. Only 15 of them had less than 5ks per 9 innings. Of those, only 6 had an an ERA less than 5. Only 3 had an ERA less than 4.5 None were below 4 with a median ERA of 5.2 for the group.

Bergeson is young. Maybe his low K total last year was a one off. Who knows? However, If they are a true indicator of what we can expect from him, a long or particularly successful ML career seems unlikely.

He looks like a great MiLB pitcher. Nothing more. He'll be another arm on the mound in September. With the typical late summer Oriole result.

His control sounds refreshing, the Os lead the world in walks. We have watched too many pitchers give up toooo many walks and simply can not get that first pitch over and fall behind then groove it so a 200 hitter becomes a 300 hitter. Ks are good, but overrated: a walk is just as good as a hit. How about Greg Maddux, how was his control?

Steve H;

Maddux averaged 1.8 walks per 9 innings and 6 k/9. He had great control and struck out his share.

Bergeson's stats and modus operandi on the mound put me in mind of another middle of the road minor league pitcher who came up for a cup of coffee in 1980 as I recall, underwhelmed Earl Weaver, got beat, spent a couple more seasons at Rochester and then got called up mid season in 1983. Yup, Mike Boddicker. Boddicker didn't throw very hard, rarely walked people, despite his 14K performance against the White Sox in the ALCS, not really a strikeout pitcher either. But he had a great mind for the game, put spin on all of his pitches, and really turned the corner when he came up with his so called "Fosh Ball." Question is, is Bergenson Mike Boddicker in 1980 or 1983? We'll see.

If one has both the time and inclination, a look at pitching sorted by K/9 at MLB.com is instructive.

Cutting off the list at 40 pitchers, likely based on a certain number of innings pitched or some such, it lists 14 guys with 7+ K/9 As a group they have an average ERA of 3.75, only 2 had ERAs above 4.5 (Vazquez 4.7 and Verlander 4.8). They were also the only two with losing records.

Contrast that against the numbers I mentioned in an earlier post. Pitchers with less than 5 K/9 had an average ERA of 5.2, a full run and a half higher than those striking out 7+ per game.

To Dwight; I'm sure that Bill James would insist that control is central to success in the majors, but I don't think he'd say it stands alone. There was only one pitcher last year in the entire AL, Saunders in LA, who struck out less than 5 per 9 and had an ERA under 4. He went 17 and 7 with an ERA of 3.41

Keeping in mind that Bergeson's 4.4 K/9 last year at Bowie would likely drop down to somewhere around 3.5 per 9 in the majors, hoping for Bergeson to become a GOOD major league starter is to hope that he can be just the second guy in the entire league to do so. Hoping for him to have a decent ERA between 4 and 4.5 is to hope that he joins only 2 other guys who managed to accomplish that.

I sure hope that Bergeson is our Joe Saunders, but to be realistic, available evidence shows that as being a tall order indeed. I'm keeping my fingers crossed, but definately not holding my breath.

Some of the best pitchers in baseball have never been power pitchers, but they get people out. That's the name of the game. Maybe the old phrase "the light finally came on" is true in Bergesen's case and remember, he's only 23. I'd give him a shot in the Orioles rotation this year. What have they got to lose?

It's interesting to see the two camps on this guy. On one hand, we have the stats based arguments that suggest he will be a poor major leaguer and on the other hand we have the group that talks about ground balls and control. As an optimist I'd like to believe that he has the potential to be a solid #5 but the stats are hard to argue against. The one thing nobody is talkinng about is that scouts are fairly unanimous in their opinion of his "stuff". He does not have a single plus offering and this is why he generates such low strikeout rates (it's not based just on how hard he throws). I don't care how good your control is...that is a recipe for disaster in the majors. I'd guess 8-10 with a 4.55 ERA at Norfolk (but I'd be thrilled if I were wrong).

What's the best pitch in baseball?? A STRIKE!! 89 with movement and location is better than 95 and straight.

If he can throw strikes then he can be helpful to the Os.

I believe the famous quote by Santayana goes like this, "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." Some years ago the O's gave up on Jamie Moyer because he "didn't throw hard enough". How'd that work out?

Bergesen is the most interesting of the rotation candidates. Throws strikes, gets ground balls, gets results. He may make the team out of Spring Training, either rotation or long relief. Else, Norfolk until needed in Baltimore - mid to late 2009. This will be Bergesen's year. I expect he will be good, not great, dependable and effective in various roles over several seasons

I predict Brad has a good enough spring to earn the #5 spot. Why not put a pitcher in the rotation who throws strikes? I know the low K-rate is not a good sign, because if you can't make AA batters miss, then you sure aren't throwing it by any MLBers, but our #5 guy doesn't need to at this point.

Two years down the road, we may have the luxury to have our #5 guy be a fireballer. Until then, I say get this guy in the back end of the rotation. He throws strikes and is durable.
I mean, come on, we threw Daniel Cabrera out there every fifth day last year...couldn't be worse.