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January 23, 2009

Predict the future -- Bill Rowell

OK, before we get into today’s discussion, I wanted to do a little bit of promotion.

I’ve recently discovered the wonderful world of Facebook fan pages, and I figured it would be a great way to expand the reach of O’s on Deck.

So, if you’re a member of Facebook and want to help inflate my ego, click on this link and become a fan of The Baltimore Sun’s minor league baseball blog. It won’t hurt my feelings if you don’t want to be a fan, but I think it could help to increase the dialogue about minor league baseball.

To be honest, I was particularly interested with the feature that allows you to upload videos and photos to the fan page. I think it could become a highly valuable resource if Orioles fans add their photos and videos during the minor league baseball season. We’ll see how it works, and hopefully it will become a popular complementary item for the blog.

Now, I’ll step off my soapbox and return to your regularly scheduled blog post.

Yesterday’s conversation about new Orioles minor leaguer Justin Turner didn’t facilitate as much debate as the previous features in the “Predict the future” series, but the comments seem to prove that fans are preparing for the departure of Brian Roberts.

Most readers agreed that Turner could eventually become Roberts’ replacement if he hits well in the minor leagues during the 2009 season. As a few people noted, however, the 24-year-old second baseman needs to show what he can do as a member of the Orioles’ minor league system in order to be seriously considered as a part of the team’s future.

And, as the reader Jay Sheehan mentioned, the team could always use Turner in a trade if they’re able to extend Roberts. Think of Turner as an insurance policy.

Today, let’s talk about the Orioles’ first-round draft pick during the 2006 MLB draft – third baseman Bill Rowell. This conversation should be interesting because I’ve heard a lot of Orioles fans speak about their frustration and disappointment with his development.

In my opinion, however, Rowell still has plenty of time to become a successful player in the major leagues. Although he hasn’t excelled in his first three professional seasons, the 6-foot-5, 205-pound infielder also hasn’t completely struggled. Remember, he doesn’t celebrate his 21st birthday until September.

While splitting the 2006 season with the rookie-level Bluefield Orioles and short-season Single-A Aberdeen IronBirds, Rowell hit .328 with three home runs and 32 RBIs in 53 games. He had 19 doubles and 46 runs scored.

Rowell batted .273 with nine home runs and 57 RBIs in 91 games for the Single-A Delmarva Shorebirds in 2007. He had 21 doubles and 47 runs scored.

Last season, Rowell struggled to hit consistently as a member of the Single-A Frederick Keys. He batted .248 with seven home runs and 50 RBIs in 111 games for the Keys. Rowell had 24 doubles and 39 runs scored.

Overall, the biggest positive with Rowell is his ability to consistently hit doubles, even though his batting average has declined each season. Theoretically, as he continues to develop and mature as a hitter, the doubles will translate into home runs at higher levels.

With that said, Rowell will need to become more disciplined and cut down on the strikeouts in order to be an effective hitter in the major leagues. In 255 games, Rowell has struck out 267 times, and he’s only collected 96 walks.

Another drawback for Rowell is his defense. He committed 18 errors in 2006, 21 in 2007 and 22 during the 2008 season. If you’re keeping track, that’s 61 errors in three seasons. If he doesn’t improve his defense, Rowell’s only shot at making it to the majors will be as a designated hitter.

It’s crucial for Rowell to take a step in the right direction this season – both offensively and defensively – if he’s going to remain among the top prospects in the organization. Last year, Baseball America listed Rowell as the No. 7 prospect in the Orioles’ minor league system. Before Matt Wieters, Chris Tillman and Brian Matusz entered the picture, the publication listed Rowell as the top prospect in 2006.

Due to his struggles last season, I think it’s almost certain that Rowell will play in Frederick again in 2009. Whether he sinks or swims in the Orioles’ pool of prospects depends exclusively on his performance during the upcoming season.

Because Rowell has had a little bit of success – and he is still young – I believe the third baseman will rebound this season. I think he will hit around .285 with 10-15 home runs and 60-70 RBIs. Look for him to have over 25 doubles and 40-50 runs scored. The strikeouts will continue to be a problem, but hopefully he finds a way to minimize the damage.

What are your expectations for Rowell? Do you think he’ll ever live up to the promise that led the Orioles to draft him in the first round? Will he continue to regress?

I know Orioles fans have strong opinions about Rowell, so let’s hear them.

------------------------

Check out previous installments of "Predict the future" by clicking on the links below:

Jake Arrieta
Brad Bergesen
Brian Matusz
Lou Montanez
Hayden Penn
Chris Tillman
Justin Turner
Matt Wieters

Posted by Dean Jones Jr. at 2:15 AM | | Comments (51)
Categories: Predict the future
        

Comments

It is still too early, but you are right that 2009 is a pivotal year. I agree that he will start at Frederick. If I remember correctly, he did finish the last two months of 2008 with some stronger numbers. There are many infielders that become pretty good major league players that don't get to the majors until 25 to 27 years old (Mora & Roberts as examples) so don't give up on him so quickly. Baseball isn't like basketball and football where 20 and 21 year olds are starting.

i think when you draft a player #1 you would hope he shows steady improvement while moving up from the low minors to hopefully the majors. so far rowell hasn't shown that type of improvement. this would be his 3rd full yr in the minors. one would hope he becomes an all star at frederick and maybe he moves up to bowie the latter half of the year.

Luckily for Rowell, he is still young, so the O's organization will stick with him for a while to see if he is truly the bust that so many Orioles fans believe him to be. I really don't think he will mature into the power hitter that everyone expected him to be coming out of high school. If he hits more than 20-25 homeruns in a season, it will be a pleasant surprise.

This is not a make or break year for Rowell, but he definitely needs to improve on his performance from a year ago. If he doesn't, then the front office should start looking for someone to give him a little competition whether it be through the draft or a trade. Maybe Rowell just needs to see that becoming the future Orioles starting third basemen isn't guaranteed after all.

With the emphasis that McPhail puts on defense, Rowell will need to significantly cut down on his errors if he hopes to play in Baltimore. Could you imagine Rowell making 30 errors in a 162 game season behind the young pitching we will have in the near future? Ouch! There is no better way to shake a pitcher's confidence than by playing poor defense behind him.

I think Rowell will improve this year and hit around .270 with 14hrs and 70 rbis splitting time between Frederick and Bowie.

I'm interested to know the perception of Brandon Snyder's future as a first basemen. He seems to be finding his stroke.

You're quite right Dean that Rowell is still way to young to know how he's going to turn out. You've got to think though the hopes were for him to be doing better at this point than he has. He's back to Frederick I think for a do over with a big question mark hanging over him.

LET'S BE PATIENT WITH HIM..WHAT IS THE STORY ABOUT HIS ATTITUDE..IT MY HELP HIM IF BRANDON SNYDER HAS A GREAT SPRING TRAINING..THEY MAY BE THE SOON TO BE 1ST AND 3RD ALONG WITH PIE,JONES NICK ANE WIETERS. TILLMAN AND THE OTHER YOUNG ARMS...WHERE IS THE YOUNG SHORT STOP?

He's got talent and a humbling year like 2008 might be a good thing for a guy that has had rumors of an attitude problem. There's added pressure because he was picked just ahead of Tim Lincecum (who would look really good in an O's uniform now), so the potential for him being considered a bust is really high. That said, Brandon Snyder was in the same boat last year (on the verge of being a bust) and came through with a terrific season to reclaim prospect status. Rowell is only 20 years old (a year younger than Snyder was last year) and would still be in college if he had gone that route, so there is still time.

Let face it when you take a high school player you take a huge risk whether he will turn out . I don't care what you or anybody say's he was a bust out pick then and will always remain a bust out pick. It just another example of why this organization is so far behind the eight ball. We have missed on so many number one draft picks in the last 11years it will make your head spin. Hopefully andy has the patience and the skill to rectify all the horrible mistakes that this organization has made.

Rowell is a pretty good case in support of the argument that teams are better off avoiding High School Seniors in the first round of the draft. He was highly touted as the future face of the franchise in 2006 and is looking more like yet another wasted pick by the O's. He needs to show something this year.

He is still young, and we shouldn't be expecting him in Baltimore for three more years anyway. However, he does need work. His defense isn't good at 3B, and he doesn't project to have 1B or DH offensive skills. If he cuts the strikeouts by a third and increases the walks by a third, his batting average will go back up just based on swinging at better pitches. I could live with a 3B who makes 15-20 errors if he hits 300/375/450 every year.

Thanks for keeping us up to date. Question with no empirical foundation: Why does a 6'5" third baseman who's a high draft choice and struggles in the minors make me think of Ryan Minor? Rowell is younger, not being a post-college player, but is that enough difference? And shouldn't a big guy with strikeouts have more power? Whoops, that's three questions.

I agree with those saying that this is not a make-or-break year for Rowell -- simply because he's so young. You'd almost certainly have to classify him as a disappointment at this point because he was a #1 pick and he hasn't performed like one. But I saw him twice at Frederick last year and he still looks kind of clumsy and gawky like he hasn't grown into his big body yet. Let's hope he's a late bloomer. I'd love to see 15 HRs, 70 RBIs, and less than 20 errors this season.

This past season may have been the wakeup call for him. He actually voiced his displeasure about not being chosen to go to the winter leagues, which is the first sign I've seen from him of wanting to improve. That and seeing the dead weight being trimmed off the organization little by little might have scared him a little.

It is hard to predict this one. I think the only thing you can is that the Orioles have not seen enough to know, just like us. So you give him the playing time and help him with his game if you are the coach. Everyone else has to watch and see, including myself, but it will be interesting.

Not every #1 draft pick, especially those taken from high school, enjoys a meteroic rise through the minors. After 3 years there, the fact remains that he's still only 20 AND, apparently, still possesses a certain level of immaturity (from prior reports concerning questions of his work ethic/attitude.) You cannot believe the O's organization is neither aware of nor all over this issue. But, until Rowell himself "gets" it, their admonitions to him will be little more than "white noise." Maturity occurs at different times for different people and the level ultimately achieved can greatly vary too. Assuming Rowell, in fact, has the requisite talent, we can only hope that he has learned from his past experiences and will apply this knowledge in bettering himself as a ball player. I optimistically project that the "light bulb" will go on for him this season, that he will show improvement by posting more consistent and better numbers and restore himself as a solid prospect in the O's system.

Considering his age 20 and his frame 6'5" 205#, I think he is still maturing in a physical sense. While I don't agree necessarily, that this is a make or break year, he needs to show improvement. If he has any common sense he can see the youth movement on the parent club as well as the status of Mora's contract. He should be hungry to show his value and his work ethic needs to be pretty high. O's brass should make sure that he sees the picture as it is and make every effort to coach him to improving and "doing what it takes" to get to the big league level, especially on defense. Basically, someone should be hitting him fungos until their hands bleed.

So, at this point he is not a lock to make it nor can he be considered a bust. However, he needs to show that he wants it bad and if his physical tools are there, then he should be ready by 2011.

There have been many reasons for us to be disappointed with Billy Rowell. A first-round draft pick, expectations were/are automatically set very high and he has done little to impress thus far. As an organization, we are still pleased with his ceiling and very fluid left handed swing. This paired with his body and it's potential to get stronger still gives him plenty of potential to grow into a middle of the order major league hitter. To me, the biggest concerns are his defense and supposed desire and dedication. After playing most of his prep career as a shortstop, you would imagine that his hands would be soft and he would have an accurate throwing arm. Learning to play third is a big transition for any player, but the transition has taken much longer than it seemingly should have. I recall reading comments negatively questioning his work ethic and acceptance of criticism which (if true) could have easily contributed to his inability to get used to playing third base.

So where do we go from here? A position change would seem logical, but then there is concerns as to how long it would take him to get used to yet another defensive position. On top of that, should we shift him to first base where he could ultimately catch up to Brandon Snyder or put him in left field where he would seemingly be blocked by Felix Pie, Luis Montenez, and Nolan Reimold?

Regardless this season is going to be a huge make-or-break year for his career. I'd like to see him split time at third and first base (assuming that his offense doesn't suffer any more than it already has been due to the lack of a steady defensive position). Realistically, if he and Brandon Snyder both develop into solid first basemen, its not the worst situation in the world to have two quality young first basemen for trade bait. Force him to establish himself in Frederick, hope he stays healthy, and finally starts making some positive strides.

I agree with you that there is still time. This is something we have been hearing with him all his career. But time is going to start to run out quickly if he fails to produce in his first four or five professional seasons. We've heard the time card used with Brandon Erbe since he was drafted. The difference with him is that although we haven't seen real consistency, we've seen more with him than with Rowell. Not to mention, we should be expecting even more out of Rowell than Erbe given the fact that he was a 1st round draftee position player. Patience is running thin with Rowell, and it should be.

first off, I'm a long time reader of this blog, first time commenting:

1. Thanks Dean, always a pleasure to read, and love the insight.

2. Thanks to many, many of the Posters--equally good insights and very good perspectives.

3. I too think it's not a make or break season for Billy, but obviously would love to see some improvement. I would hope that in 2 years time he's pushing for a spot in the Majors, but it seems like that would require 2 tremendous years. Hopefully by the end of this year he's in Bowie. Again, he's so young still it's really hard to see where he can go.

Time is still on his side. With Andy Mac's rebuilding plan in place don't look for this kid until 2012! He won't be 24 until after that season and that should give him plenty of time to grow into his body, mature, and be ready and able to face major league pitching. He has a huge upside and working with Crowley and the major league staff will help him fine tune his pitch selection and cut down on the strikeouts.

It has been awhile since I have seen Rowell, but in the past he was really a typical teenage guy. In other words, goofy and acting unwisely at times. The problem with this is that most minor league guys are disciplined, well spoken, and industrious - guys you would be happy to have your daughter marry. So Rowell was really exceptional with his negative immaturity for a baseball player. If he is able to change I would predict him to be moderately successful baseball player - if not, he's not going anyplace.

The key thing to remember about Rowell is that he's 20 years old. He has a lot ahead of him, but must take advantage of his opportunities to succeed. The O's would love to see him replace Mora at third in the future, but it doesn't appear as though he'll be ready. He should get a shot at AA at some point this season, but start him again at A-ball and see if he can progress. Because of his age, I give him a pass in regards to his inconsistencies, BUT at some point you either progress or you get lost in the minor league shuffle. This could prove to be the most important season of his young life.

First time posting here....
If you look at the recent signings by the O's, you'll notice a fundamental shift to players with character and a great work ethic. That's how you build a team. If the attitude issues I've heard are true, then I believe the O's are not going to have too much patience with him - just a hunch. Here's hoping the "light goes on" and he understand what it takes to be a member of the new Orioles.

He's a kid w/ a huge upside, people need to get off his back, its ridiculous. Im hoping he can return to form this year. I remember at his press conference after he was signed he said, "I want to be the best ever"...you have to respect that. Hopefully the kid gets it & will work hard

Other than Rowell and Snider, we have no position prospects in the minors. We also invested over $3million signing Rowell. So, I have my fingers crossed that he pans out. I am fearful at this point, however, that Rowell will prove a bust. Although Rowell has a strong arm, he is a liability in the field. If he can't handle third or short, then he must play either First or DH. To do either, he must hit with power. Rowell was drafted as a plus power guy. During him minor league career two things stand out, however, very few home runs, and tons of strike outs. Rowell is a K machine. I have not seen Rowell, so I am simply repeating what I have read. I would like to hear from some of the fans who have actually seen him play. At this point I will be surprised if he makes it.

I think Rowell will be fine. Let's not give up on him too quick. Look how Jason Weryth turned out, another high school 1st rounded that the O's gave up too quickly on.

He is most likely headed to the long list of 1st round picks that never materialized. You can not win them all and you need to realize when you need to fold your cards.
Give him one more year at AA and if there is not significant improvement it will be time to move on to another potential star. There is only so much time and money.

Has any work leaked out who the Orioles will get from Tampa Bay for the Chad Bradford trade? Why is this taking so long? It would seem to me that Tampa should present a list of 5 players and the O's get their pick.

I think it is way to early to predict how he will do. He was drafted because of his bat. I think the Orioles have him at the wrong position. I see him at first base. Maybe with his defensive struggles it is harder for him to concentrate on what he was drafted to do, hit. I think if the organization swaps the positions for Rowell and Snyder then Billy's offensive numbers may pick up.

I've seen Rowell at Frederick a few times last year. His development hasn't been as fast as many O's fans would like. But I think the O's are partly the blame for that.

First I'd like to say I've seen Weiters at Frederick too. Boy is that kid the real deal. I feel like it's 1977 and I'm glimpsing Eddie for the first time. Everything is there, power,poise, confidence, and intelligence. He's got loads of physical ability and somone started teaching him at a very young age. He's got that Cal Ripken way of carrying himself.

But back to Rowell, kid's got talent and potential and is still so very young. That's where I'm a little concerned about his handling so far.

He was a HS draftee, so Bluefield was the place to send him, he probably should have stayed the year to get his feet on the ground. he was either 17 or just18 at the time.

Got a mid season promo to the Ironbirds, not many HS guys are moved up at mid season. After strong stats at Bluefield he didn't tear up the short A league, but the following spring he was promoted again to Delmarva. And there was talk about a midseason promo to Bowie before he'd ever played a game at Salsibury.

The O's were really trying to fast track the kid and he was getting in over his head. He struggled at Delmarva but then put up ok numbers. But numbers that would have indicated to most start the next year at that level and let him earn a promotion.

Nope, last year he's at Frederick. For the one's of you that are unfamilar with the league the Keys are in it's an advanced A league. There's some guys in that league that have been kicking around the minors for awhile.
There's also a lot of talent that's just two or three years from the majors.
And some that will be there quicker then that. Like Weiters.

Rowell got to see guys that can actually throw a curveball for a strike.
Along the way he's also moved from short to third. I'm not sure when the O's made that move, but when I saw him last spring he looked like somebody had just handed him a glove and it was his first time.

Point is late last summer he looked like a completely different player. I'd agree with the one poster's point about he's still catching up with that body. Beween April and Aug. he appeared to grow up a lot. Swung the bat with more confidence and pop, and actually looked like a third baseman. Well sort of.

Remember when Cal moved to third and even for him it wasn't seamless.Things happen really fast at third, some really big guys that can play short struggle there. Like Cal did, with instruction, and practice, Billy may make the switch and eventually play well at third. He's got the arm.

But sometimes he's hurrying too much, he's knocked the ball down and has plenty of time & throws it away because he's panicking. He still trying to play everything with his hands like a SS, and he hasn't figured out completely to just get in front of it knock it down and throw.

But my point is, don't retype what you've heard or read about a guy, happens enough a guy gets an undeserved bad rap. The Tude thing, he's a 20 yr old that got a big bonus that struggled early in advanced A ball, the fans down there love to razz a guy like that. In April he didn't look like he handled it well, by the end of the year he appeared to be taking it all in stride.

Bottem line, I thought he got some good coaching and eventually appeared to rise to the level of the competition he was playing at. The O's need to let him start the year there and see if he can rise above the level of that league. The Carolina League is one of the tougher A Leagues in baseball.

I wouldn't call him up to Bowie at mid season unless he was putting up Weiter like numbers, let him mature some.

One other quick point about Weiters, I wonder if playing with Weiters helped Billy's approach some. The kid did seem to grow up and played well going down the stretch. In April I'd have put the chances of him in an O's uni at no more then 50/50. Now I feel he'll make it at some point, question iis will he be a star? He's still got two to three seasons of work in the minors unless he really catches fire. I'll be watching him this year, the O's should give him a chance to see if he can really tear up a league before hurrying up to Bowie.

But if Weiters is one of those rare guys that makes the guys around him better players, us O fans might be finally going to get the guy we've been waiting for.An Eddie, or a Cal, the kind of guy that you build a team around. But he's still got to hit AAA pitching before we get the chance to see that.

Sorry this got long, but that's my take on Bill Rowell.

Who is making selections like Rowell instead of Lincecum? Isnt there any accountability by the scouting director or scouts who saw Rowell???

I've seen Rowell at Frederick a few times last year. His development hasn't been as fast as many O's fans would like. But I think the O's are partly the blame for that.

First I'd like to say I've seen Weiters at Frederick too. Boy is that kid the real deal. I feel like it's 1977 and I'm glimpsing Eddie for the first time. Everything is there, power,poise, confidence, and intelligence. He's got loads of physical ability and somone started teaching him at a very young age. He's got that Cal Ripken way of carrying himself.

But back to Rowell, kid's got talent and potential and is still so very young. That's where I'm a little concerned about his handling so far.

He was a HS draftee, so Bluefield was the place to send him, he probably should have stayed the year to get his feet on the ground. he was either 17 or just18 at the time.

Got a mid season promo to the Ironbirds, not many HS guys are moved up at mid season. After strong stats at Bluefield he didn't tear up the short A league, but the following spring he was promoted again to Delmarva. And there was talk about a midseason promo to Bowie before he'd ever played a game at Salsibury.

The O's were really trying to fast track the kid and he was getting in over his head. He struggled at Delmarva but then put up ok numbers. But numbers that would have indicated to most start the next year at that level and let him earn a promotion.

Nope, last year he's at Frederick. For the one's of you that are unfamilar with the league the Keys are in it's an advanced A league. There's some guys in that league that have been kicking around the minors for awhile.
There's also a lot of talent that's just two or three years from the majors.
And some that will be there quicker then that. Like Weiters.

Rowell got to see guys that can actually throw a curveball for a strike.
Along the way he's also moved from short to third. I'm not sure when the O's made that move, but when I saw him last spring he looked like somebody had just handed him a glove and it was his first time.

Point is late last summer he looked like a completely different player. I'd agree with the one poster's point about he's still catching up with that body. Beween April and Aug. he appeared to grow up a lot. Swung the bat with more confidence and pop, and actually looked like a third baseman. Well sort of.

Remember when Cal moved to third and even for him it wasn't seamless.Things happen really fast at third, some really big guys that can play short struggle there. Like Cal did, with instruction, and practice, Billy may make the switch and eventually play well at third. He's got the arm.

But sometimes he's hurrying too much, he's knocked the ball down and has plenty of time & throws it away because he's panicking. He still trying to play everything with his hands like a SS, and he hasn't figured out completely to just get in front of it knock it down and throw.

But my point is, don't retype what you've heard or read about a guy, happens enough a guy gets an undeserved bad rap. The Tude thing, he's a 20 yr old that got a big bonus that struggled early in advanced A ball, the fans down there love to razz a guy like that. In April he didn't look like he handled it well, by the end of the year he appeared to be taking it all in stride.

Bottem line, I thought he got some good coaching and eventually appeared to rise to the level of the competition he was playing at. The O's need to let him start the year there and see if he can rise above the level of that league. The Carolina League is one of the tougher A Leagues in baseball.

I wouldn't call him up to Bowie at mid season unless he was putting up Weiter like numbers, let him mature some.

One other quick point about Weiters, I wonder if playing with Weiters helped Billy's approach some. The kid did seem to grow up and played well going down the stretch. In April I'd have put the chances of him in an O's uni at no more then 50/50. Now I feel he'll make it at some point, question iis will he be a star? He's still got two to three seasons of work in the minors unless he really catches fire. I'll be watching him this year, the O's should give him a chance to see if he can really tear up a league before hurrying up to Bowie.

But if Weiters is one of those rare guys that makes the guys around him better players, us O fans might be finally going to get the guy we've been waiting for.An Eddie, or a Cal, the kind of guy that you build a team around. But he's still got to hit AAA pitching before we get the chance to see that.

Sorry this got long, but that's my take on Bill Rowell.

having seen rowell a number of times
at delmarva...i think he is immature,
doesn't have good work habits and
doesn't have the skills to be a major
leaguer...if the o's keep him he will
bounce around the minors..i am not
sure he could be a success in aaa.

Hopefully Rowell is a late bloomer. He's clearly a disappointment so far. He's a great argument for not gambling your 1st round pick on a HS kid. If he doesn't start to show something this year, he may be another in a long line of really bad draft picks.

Ever since Darnell McDonald, I have very much been opposed to using first-round picks on high school students. So far, Billy Rowell has not changed my stance on that.

Rowell needs to learn plate discipline, and learn it now. I've never seen him play in the field, so I can't comment on his defensive merits, but he will never hit in the majors if he's striking out that much in low-A ball.

He's 20 - so if the "light turns on" for him in three years at age 23, we'd all be crazy drooling over his MLB future - and he'd still be three years younger than Lou Montanez.

So what this means is the O's can be patient with Rowell. No pressure at all for Rowell or the O's, due to: (1) no other top-flight MLB 3B prospect in the organization and (2) he's 20.

For Rowell, he should be thinking about serious improvement this year for the single following reason: Melvin Mora is 36. So next year at ST, can he have improved enough during the 2009 season to be worthy of a good look at 3B for 2010? Here's hoping he makes great strides this year!

Rowell is the Matt Riley of position players in our system - a legend in his own mind. He'll never see so much as a cup of coffee at the Major League level. I hope he squirreled away that bonus money, grows up, gets a college education & makes something of himself...otherwise, about the only thing he'll be qualified to do is ask "would you like fries with that?"

Hate to say it, but I think Rowell will not make it to big leagues.

He's young. I think he was 17 when he was drafted. Hopeffuly the set backs in 2008 will humble him, and make him want to improve. Keep in mind he was 19 years old, all of last year. It is crazy to write off a 20 year old kid. The strikeouts are a concern, but with the right tutelage and change in his approach, that can improve.

i have not yet seen Rowell play so my judgements are based on what i've read and heard.

the one thing that bothers me the most is the repeated comment that he's hard-headed and hard to coach. hopefully, someone can get through to him this is his 4th season in pro ball and he's still in single A. that's not good for a high #1 pick. he can be replaced, he's not one of macphail's picks. he better realize that - and soon, or we'll all be saying "remember bill rowell, whatever happened to him"?

248 A Ball hitters don't often make it to the major leagues. He's already a bust. Maybe he'll be playing Independent League ball with Matt Riley and Chris Smith in about 5 years. That's his ceiling.

Horrible attitude + Long Swing + Poor Defense = Never making it to Baltimore

I know alot this guy...I have been watching him since he was in bluefield and he is what scouts call a 5 o' clock hitter.....he will never be able to put consistently numbers up. his numbers from bluefield were the result of face lower level pitching (pitchers that can only command 1 pitch)(Fastball) ...thats why its called rookie ball many of the pitchers havent learned to pitch yet...as he moves there the minors he faces pitchers that command 2 -3 pitchers unlike bluefield.....I believe that he will be another unknown, undevelop 1st round pick which the orioles have became famous for.....what a waste of 2.3 millon dollars

Bust.

I guarantee that Rowell will never play major league baseball. We always have players that are rated as top players within this organization, but the rest of the country laughs at our so-called top prospects.

After seeing Rowell for the first time last April I'd have agreed with all of the negative comments about him and threw in a few more myself.

The difference between him and Weiters was huge. They didn't look like two former first round picks in the same lineup. I thought Rowell really looked like he was in over his head.
I figured he should have been sent back down to Delmarva.

By August I thought the kid looked like a much improved player. The ball was flying off his bat with a little more pop, seemed a little qiucker to the ball, and he didn't look completely fooled on a pitch near as often.

I think by August Rowell at least looked like he belonged in the Carolina League. My opinion is the O's need to make him force them to promote him from here on out.

I'd agree with the opinion about drafting High School players. Way too much can happen sending thoose young "can't miss" guys through the minors. Not many guys are ready for the majors by 21. Not many can toil in the minors for 5 to 6 years and make it.

Rowell may well end up being a bust. But he did show progress as a player at Frederick last year. It will be 2-3 more years before the O's know what they've got for sure.

How many pitchers of Lincecum's size (5-11/160, and the 5-11 might be generous) have had his level of success over the past 30 years? One: Lincecum. The pitcher he is most comparable to in both stature and style is Tom Gordon, who had a decent but not outstanding career. Sure, hindsight is 20/20. However, you must be able to see how a scouting department could prefer a 17 year old LH hitting 3B with size and projectable power over a small, skinny pitcher with a violent delivery. It's unfortunate that it worked out the way it has, but (1) we weren't the only team that passed on Lincecum, and (2) as has been said many times, he's only 20 for crying out loud. If he'd have gone to college he'd just now be draft eligible. Not everyone is Nick Markakis or Matt Wieters. Some need more minor league seasoning. Realistically, he could spend the next four seasons in the minors and still be only 24 when he gets to the majors. If he's ready then, then I'll take it.

Mountain Fan: Thanks for the highly informative analysis. It was the best thing I have read about Rowell anywhere. Would you send him back to Frederick for another year or demote him to Delmarva?

Let's see.......Billy Rowell or the National League Cy Young award winner, Tim Lincencom. How about Brandon Snyder or Matt Garza. What about Wade Townsend or Jered Weaver? Adam Loewn or Cole Hamels? Chris Smith or JJ Hardy? Mike Fotenot or Danny Haren? Beau Hale or Chase Utley? Mike Paradis or Carl Crawford. Larry Bigbie or John Lackey? Joshue Cenate or Ryan Ludwick. One thing about the Baltimore Orioles scouting department. Whoever we waste with a #1 pick will never ever be heard from again and will make the Missing Persons List before making the 25 man squad on a last place team. Keep up the good work guys.

Rowell is still growing up:

All 2009 Frederick
If he tears it up AZ Fall League
All 2010 Bowie

2011 Maybe.

I saw him play twice and to me he is a baseball player...he may not mature into his body soon enough to help the Orioles but he will be a consistent contributor to some majorleague team down the road...I watched his stats steadily improve each time he was given a new challenge. He needs to spend some time with the same group of guys and be"coached" and he will begin to develop into the player that was projected...

I think Billy will find his glove, timing, and see the ball. Expect big things this season.

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About Dean Jones Jr.
Dean Jones Jr.Dean Jones Jr. is the sports community coordinator at The Baltimore Sun. Following minor league baseball has always been one of his favorite hobbies. The smaller stadiums, intimate atmosphere and affordable prices allow everyone to see baseball played in its truest form. He enjoys tracking prospects as they progress from the lowest levels of a team’s farm system all the way up to the major leagues.
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