There's been a lot of recent publicity about the Orioles' minor league system, including top prospect Matt Wieters, so it's a good time to compile a media roundup.

Here's the content about Wieters:

• Last week, ESPN.com's Keith Law ranked the top 100 prospects in minor league baseball. Wieters is at the top of the list, and he's joined by Brian Matusz (No. 28), Chris Tillman (No. 40) and Jake Arrieta (No. 92).

Wieters is typically compared to one of two current big-leaguers: Mark Teixeira and Joe Mauer. Those are tough comps to hang on a player who has yet to sniff the big leagues, but in Wieters' case, they're merited.

Wieters' similarities to Teixeira don't end with their common alma mater of Georgia Tech or the fact that each was selected with the fifth overall pick (Teixeira in 2001, Wieters in 2007). Like Teixeira, Wieters is a switch-hitter with plus hit and power tools from both sides. He's a little more fluid from the left side with slightly better raw power, but he could stand on his head and still be short to the ball and get good extension on his follow-through. His plate discipline is strong and improving, and he's filled out since college, adding power to the point where he's at least major league average right now. He does glide a little bit on both sides, but it has no discernible effect on his ability to hit. ...

• Wieters also participated in an online chat on ESPN.com to discuss the list.

Andy (Baltimore, MD): Scouts said that your one area of weakness was inexperience [is] calling a game behind the plate. How much did last year help you out calling a game? Do you think it will help you in the future that you caught guys like Tillman and Arrieta who should be in the majors with you soon?

Wieters: I think it's always a great experience when you can catch guys with major league ability. That way you can learn with them. It's always fun to work with them in order to call the best game possible.

• Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus listed the top 11 prospects in the organization. Goldstein ranks Wieters, Tillman and Matusz as five-star prospects, which is the highest level.

Ranking Challenges: Wieters is the obvious top prospect, but the system's incredible pitching depth creates a lot of uncertainty when trying to sort out those ranked behind him; scouts had wide-ranging opinions on the order of Tillman, Matusz, and Arrieta, though for most Arrieta ended up one notch below the other two. The unknowns about [Troy] Patton following shoulder surgery provide a challenge, while the significant talent drop-off towards the bottom leaves the last three spots to be determined solely by personal preference.

• Wieters recently participated in the 2009 Rookie Career Development Program with other prospects. MLB.com conducted a video interview with Wieters, in which they discuss his future.

• SI.com's Ted Keith talks about how Wieters is the key to the Orioles' long-term success.

Wieters is new, and he is not. Old, and he is not. Rare, and he is not. For the Baltimore Orioles, who made him the fifth pick in the 2007 draft, he is the future, and he is not (at least not yet). The best prospect in baseball, and there is hardly anyone around the game who would suggest that he is not.

Of course, each spring there is one player who is labeled a "can't miss," a guaranteed future star, a sure thing. And as often as not, the only sure thing about that player is that he is sure to disappoint. This year the mantle has been given to Wieters, a 6-foot-5, 230-pound switch-hitting catcher who possesses a laser arm so strong and accurate his college coach thought he had a big league future as a pitcher, and a bat so potent he's already being compared to two-time American League batting champion and fellow backstop Joe Mauer, but with the switch-hitting ability (and maybe the power) of Mark Teixeira.

To the many fans who will be learning about him for the first time this spring, Wieters remains a relatively unknown commodity. But to the scouts who have watched him since his high school days in South Carolina and through an All-America career at Georgia Tech, and to those hard-core Orioles fans desperately hoping that he'll lead their team back to respectability, he has been targeted as one of the game's brightest future stars for almost two years.

• The fantasy baseball experts at KFFL.com weigh in with their picks for 2009 Rookie of the Year, and they think the choice will be between Wieters and Tampa Bay Rays left-hander David Price.

Sorry, Cleveland Indians outfielder Matt LaPorta, but it's truly a two-horse race here. Tampa Bay Rays starter David Price was a postseason monster, and at the back end of the Rays rotation he should only see a minimal increase in the 123 2/3 combined frames he tossed last year. Of course, they'll probably be exclusively major league frames, so that may wear on him as the months go on.

Baltimore Orioles catcher Matt Wieters also grew up fast in the minors. He's polished beyond his years from both sides of the plate, though I'm a bit hesitant to believe he can master all the mental workings of an MLB catcher as quickly.

Still, due to his switch-hitting capabilities, his rapid offensive maturity and my reluctance to give the award to a pitcher, Wieters gets my nod (bold, right?).

Other articles about the Orioles' minor league system:

• Stan Goldberg of The Frederick News-Post reports that the Frederick Keys might be making upgrades to Harry Grove Stadium in 2009.

When the Frederick Keys open their home season on April 17 at Harry Grove Stadium, fans could be looking at a new and modern scoreboard and listening to a new sound system.

At some point during the year, they might be looking at a new videoboard in left field at the stadium, which was built in 1990.

City of Frederick facilities administrator Tim Beall said that bids have been put out by the City of Frederick for the scoreboard, sound system and videoboard. If approved by the city, which owns the stadium, Beall said the scoreboard and sound system could be ready for the home opener.

• MLB.com's Lisa Winston discusses the 11 players from the Orioles' organization who are listed on provisional rosters for the World Baseball Classic, including three players -- infielder Mike Costanzo, outfielder Jeff Fiorentino and right-handed pitcher Cliff Flagello -- who have a good chance to represent Italy.

The Baltimore Orioles could see three of their young players suiting up in the red, white and green of Italy, as infielder Mike Costanzo, outfielder Jeff Fiorentino and right-hander Clifford Flagello were named to the country's 45-man provisional roster. All three would be newcomers to the squad that went 1-2 in a tough 2006 pool, beating Australia but losing to Venezuela and the Dominican Republic.

• Tim Brennan of The Daily Times (Salisbury) reports on the Delmarva Shorebirds' new alternate logo, which was unveiled at the team's Hot Stove Banquet last weekend.

This year, it wasn't just about a good meal, commiserating about the dipping temperatures and listening to speeches from some of the Shorebirds' and Orioles' higher-ups, including the keynote address from the O's color analyst on the Mid-Atlantic Sports Network, Dave Johnson.

This year's banquet included a few key announcements from Shorebirds general manager Chris Bitters: The beginning of naming annual fans of the year, as well as the introduction of an alternative cap logo to be worn by the team on Sundays. The new logo is something many teams across minor league baseball have done, and some have more than two. The Shorebirds have sported "the silhouette" logo, as Bitters likes to call it, since the team's inception, and it was time to make a small adjustment.

"Over the early years, the team developed Sherman as the mascot," Bitters said. "He's kind of the fun-loving Shorebird representation from a cartoon standpoint. So really, from an alternate cap logo, we were looking to create something else besides the same logo on the other caps."

• In case you missed it in yesterday's post about Jason Berken, here's an article from Todd McMahon ofThe De Pere Journal (De Pere, Wis.) about the 25-year-old right-hander.

Berken, born and raised in De Pere, is counting on his time to make the long-awaited jump to Major League Baseball to occur this year, his fourth in the Orioles organization.

"We call him the dreamer," Berken's wife, Emily, said. "When I say 'if', he always says 'when'."

Berken's aspirations of breaking through to the big leagues were buoyed by what he accomplished last season.

• If you're an Orioles fan in Ohio, you might want to check out Bowie Baysox manager Brad Komminsk at the Lima Knights of Columbus Hall on Monday. Here's some information from LimaOhio.com about the event, which will also include Cleveland Indians manager Eric Wedge.

Former Atlanta Braves regional scouting supervisor Lima's Jim Martz will host the night. Shawnee grad Brad Komminsk, now the manager of the division champion Class AA Bowie Baysox, will also be on hand.

Tickets are $30 per person, which include a dinner, a meet and greet and autograph opportunities. A cash bar will also be available.

The dinner will start at 5:30 p.m., with the meet-and-greet session and autographs scheduled for 6 p.m.

• The Cumberland Times-News shares information about the 61st annual Dapper Dan Awards Banquet, which will feature University of Maryland quarterback Chris Turner and Aberdeen IronBirds second baseman Eric Perlozzo. The event will be held tomorrow at the Ali Ghan Shrine Club.

Perlozzo, a 2002 graduate of Bishop Walsh, graduated from Shippensburg University in 2006 with a degree in psychology. He was drafted in the 35th round of the amateur player draft by the Baltimore Orioles.

A right-hander at the plate and in the field, Perlozzo played his first year in the minor leagues for the Bluefield Orioles where he hit .247 with 16 RBIs. He played last season for the Aberdeen IronBirds, hitting .241 in 51 games, with four doubles, one home run, eight RBIs in the short-season Class A New York-Penn League.

• Don't forget to join the Facebook fan page for O's on Deck. Feel free to use the page as an online forum to discuss the Orioles' minor league system.

--------------------------------------------------------------

Is there a good story, column or blog post on the Orioles' minor league system that I missed? E-mail links to djones@baltimoresun.com and I'll add them to the roundup.

Posted by Dean Jones Jr. at 1:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
        

Thanks to everyone for the predictions about first baseman Brandon Snyder.

Before last season, Snyder’s prospect status was being questioned, but most people now seem to agree that the former catcher is one of the first players mentioned during any discussion about the Orioles’ future roster.

The difference a year makes is amazing.

Remember, it could just as quickly go in the other direction. That’s why it’s important for Snyder to build on last year's success in order to remain in the organization’s long-term plans. The 6-foot-2, 205-pound infielder seems to be fully recovered from injuries that bothered him in the past, so look for the offensive numbers to increase again in 2009.

Now, let’s discuss the primary focus of this entry – starting pitcher Jason Berken.

If I mentioned the 25-year-old right-hander prior to last season, I’m sure it would have been met with head-scratching bewilderment by the majority of Orioles fans. In fact, I’d guarantee that would still be the reply from at least 25 percent of Orioles fans now.

Several other pitching prospects in the Orioles’ minor league system overshadow the 6-foot, 210-pound starting pitcher. Jake Arrieta, Brad Bergesen, Brandon Erbe, David Hernandez, Brian Matusz, Chorye Spoone and Chris Tillman are all discussed more frequently than Berken, but he was one of the most reliable pitchers for the Double-A Bowie Baysox in 2008.

Berken, who the Orioles selected in the sixth round of the 2006 MLB draft, was 12-4 with a 3.58 ERA in 26 games (25 starts) for the Baysox last season. He had 125 strikeouts and only walked 38 hitters in 145 2/3 innings. Berken surrendered nine home runs in 2008, which was less than his three more popular Baysox teammates – Bergesen, Tillman and Hernandez.

As a member of the Single-A Frederick Keys during the 2007 season, Berken was 9-9 with a 4.53 ERA in 27 games (26 starts). He had 124 strikeouts and 49 walks in 151 innings for the Keys. In his first professional season, Berken was 1-4 with a 2.80 ERA in nine games (eight starts) for the short-season Single-A Aberdeen IronBirds in 2006. He had 46 strikeouts and only issued five walks in 45 innings for the IronBirds.

While pitching in college at Clemson, he missed the entire 2005 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery on his right elbow. Admittedly, Berken hasn’t suffered any setbacks in the past three years, but that’s something to consider when contemplating his future. The surgery may have made him a better pitcher, honestly, because Berken now uses his control and off-speed pitches to be successful.

If you’re looking for more information about Berken, check out this recent article on greenbaypressgazette.com. The piece includes some background content about Berken, who is from the Green Bay area, as well as some photographs of the pitcher at his baseball camp earlier this month.

Berken should start the upcoming season with the Triple-A Norfolk Tides. Throughout his career, Berken's control has been his best asset, and that won't change in 2009.

If he stays in Norfolk for the entire season, look for Berken to have about four times more strikeouts than walks, and his ERA should be around his career average (3.90). If the Orioles need to promote someone during the season, however, don't be surprised if Berken is at the top of the list.

What are your expectations for Berken this season? Will he make his debut in the major leagues sometime in 2009? If so, how do you think he'll perform?

------------------------

Check out previous installments of "Predict the future" by clicking on the links below:

• Jake Arrieta
• Brad Bergesen
• Brian Matusz
• Lou Montanez
• Hayden Penn
• Bill Rowell
• Brandon Snyder
• Chris Tillman
• Justin Turner
• Matt Wieters

Posted by Dean Jones Jr. at 12:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (15)
Categories: Predict the future
        

According to the latest list of minor league signings on the Baseball America Web site, the Colorado Rockies and Toronto Blue Jays have agreed to terms with four former Orioles minor leaguers – two with each team.

The biggest name on the list, from an Orioles perspective, is Brandon Fahey. The 28-year-old middle infielder hit .224 with two home runs and 36 RBIs in 189 games, spanning three seasons, in the major leagues. Last season, he batted .226 with no home runs and 12 RBIs in 58 games for the Orioles. Fahey signed a minor league contract with the Blue Jays. He also received an invitation to spring training.

In the discussion about Fahey’s signing, Baseball America talks about the different shortstops that the Orioles used in 2008:

Not a team afraid to take chances on discarded shortstops -- think Royce Clayton, Pedro Lopez, Hector Luna, Ray Olmedo, Danny Sandoval, Jason Smith and Jorge Velandia just from the past two seasons -- the Blue Jays now have signed Fahey, part of the ‘08 Orioles’ five-headed monster at shortstop. The other four: Freddie Bynum, Juan Castro, Alex Cintron and Luis Hernandez. (Just think about that the next time you pity your favorite team’s assembled depth at a particular position.)

The Blue Jays also agreed to terms on a minor league deal with left-handed pitcher Rommie Lewis Jr., who pitched for the Double-A Bowie Baysox in 2008. Lewis was 1-6 with a 3.41 ERA in 38 appearances (five starts) for the Baysox last season. He had 63 strikeouts and 26 walks in 66 innings.

The Orioles selected the 26-year-old left-hander in the fourth round of the 2001 MLB draft. Lewis pitched in the Orioles’ minor league system for the first seven seasons of his professional career. He didn’t pitch in 2005, and spent three years with the Single-A Frederick Keys – 2003, 2004 and 2006.

Overall, Lewis was 13-30 with a 3.64 ERA in 252 games (37 starts) in the Orioles’ minor league system. I was always impressed with the 6-foot-6, 203-pound pitcher’s stuff, but it’s probably best that he hooked on with another organization. Lewis is getting older, and the Orioles have an influx of young pitchers who are ready to take his spot.

The Rockies agreed to minor league deals with two players who played for a brief period in the Orioles’ minor league system.

Mike McCoy, who the St. Louis Cardinals selected in the 34th round of the 2002 MLB draft, played in 53 games for the Triple-A Norfolk Tides last season. The 27-year-old utility player hit .276 with two home runs and 16 RBIs for the Tides. He had six stolen bases and 25 runs scored.

Ruddy Yan split time between the Tides and Baysox during the 2007 season. He batted .149 in 14 games for the Tides before being demoted to Double-A. In 98 games for the Baysox, the 27-year-old outfielder hit .263 with three home runs and 22 RBIs. Yan played in nine games with Veracruz in the Mexican League last season.

The biggest non-Orioles name on Baseball America’s latest list of transactions, in my opinion, is former Tampa Bay Rays outfielder Jonny Gomes, who recently agreed to a minor league deal with the Cincinnati Reds. I’ll never forget watching the 28-year-old outfielder hit one of the longest home runs that I’ve ever seen in person at Camden Yards against the Orioles on Opening Day in 2006.

His best season was in 2005, when the 6-foot-1, 205-pound right-handed hitter batted .282 with 21 home runs and 54 RBIs. The Reds are a little thin in the outfield, so don’t be surprised if Gomes rejuvenates his career in the National League Central.

Posted by Dean Jones Jr. at 12:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (13)
Categories: Former O's minor leaguers
        

Over the weekend, I discovered that Orioles fans, for the most part, don’t seem to have confidence in Bill Rowell. Most people cited his reported attitude problem as the reason why they thought he’d never mature and earn an everyday role in the major leagues.

I’ve heard these rumors, but I deliberately didn’t mention them earlier. I wanted to see what everyone thought about the 6-foot-5, 205-pound third baseman before giving my input on the subject. I’ve never met Rowell, so I honestly don’t feel comfortable discussing his mental approach to the game. Until I see it with my own eyes, I’m hesitant to believe it. In the games that I've seen him play, Rowell has never shown any signs of a negative attitude. Hopefully, I’ll be able to provide more details as the season progresses.

Besides, as other readers pointed out, there’s plenty of time for him to grow into a successful player in the majors. The upcoming season, in their opinion, is not the deciding factor on his future role with the Orioles.

I agree that he’s still young enough to make it to the majors even if he struggles this year, but I think he needs to have some success in order to still be considered a legitimate prospect after the 2009 season. I’m sure all Orioles fans can agree that the best solution to the problem is for Rowell to have a breakout season and quiet all the doubts about his makeup.

It seems like a good transition to jump from Rowell to a player who was facing a similar dilemma prior to last season – infielder Brandon Snyder.

Orioles fans were discussing the 22-year-old infielder – who the team selected as a catcher in the first round of the 2005 MLB draft – as a potential bust before he performed well for the Single-A Frederick Keys in 2008. Snyder finished second in the Carolina League with a .315 batting average. He had 13 home runs and 80 RBIs in 116 games for the Keys last season.

Snyder batted .291 with eight home runs and 41 RBIs while splitting time between the rookie-level Bluefield Orioles and short-season Single-A Aberdeen IronBirds during his first professional season in 2005. He had 10 doubles and 30 runs scored in 52 games.

Snyder struggled in 2006 with the IronBirds and Single-A Delmarva Shorebirds. A dislocated right shoulder, as well as a torn left rotator cuff, limited Snyder to 72 games during that season. He hit .213 with four home runs and 31 RBIs. In his final season as a catcher, Snyder committed 12 errors and had 20 passed balls in 51 games behind the plate.

The 6-foot-2, 205-pound infielder returned from the injuries with a solid season in 2007. Snyder batted .283 with 11 home runs and 58 RBIs in 118 games for the Shorebirds. He had 23 doubles and 63 runs scored, but struck out 107 times. Snyder made 11 errors while playing first base for Delmarva.

Personally, I think Snyder is headed for career highs in several offensive categories in 2009. He seems to be fully recovered from the rotator cuff injury, so there could be an increase in his power numbers this season.

Look for Snyder to start the season with the Double-A Bowie Baysox. While it will be the highest level at which he’s played, I don’t believe it will have a major effect on Snyder’s performance. I think he will hit around .320 with 15-20 home runs and 85-95 RBIs for the Baysox. Snyder will likely be among the Eastern League leaders in doubles.

What are your thoughts about Snyder? After his progress last season, do you think he’s back in the picture as a future member of the Orioles? Are my predictions for the upcoming season too optimistic?

Let me know what you think about Snyder’s future. If you think he’s going to make it to the major leagues, what’s your estimated time of arrival?

Finally, I’d like to thank everyone who joined the Facebook fan page for O’s on Deck. There’s already over 100 people, but let’s not stop there. If you know Orioles fans that haven’t joined the fan page, pass along the link so they won’t miss the action.

Remember, the Facebook fan page will only be successful if everyone participates. Some people have already posted messages – by the way, I love all the compliments – but also feel free to use the discussion board to debate different topics. As long as the conversation remains clean, I have no problem with letting everyone talk about what’s on his or her mind.

Don’t forget to add your photos and videos of minor league baseball. In my opinion, those two features will be the most popular aspects of the fan page once the baseball season begins. If you have some photos or videos from the past, feel free to upload them.

------------------------

Check out previous installments of "Predict the future" by clicking on the links below:

• Jake Arrieta
• Brad Bergesen
• Brian Matusz
• Lou Montanez
• Hayden Penn
• Bill Rowell
• Chris Tillman
• Justin Turner
• Matt Wieters

Posted by Dean Jones Jr. at 1:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (20)
Categories: Predict the future
        

OK, before we get into today’s discussion, I wanted to do a little bit of promotion.

I’ve recently discovered the wonderful world of Facebook fan pages, and I figured it would be a great way to expand the reach of O’s on Deck.

So, if you’re a member of Facebook and want to help inflate my ego, click on this link and become a fan of The Baltimore Sun’s minor league baseball blog. It won’t hurt my feelings if you don’t want to be a fan, but I think it could help to increase the dialogue about minor league baseball.

To be honest, I was particularly interested with the feature that allows you to upload videos and photos to the fan page. I think it could become a highly valuable resource if Orioles fans add their photos and videos during the minor league baseball season. We’ll see how it works, and hopefully it will become a popular complementary item for the blog.

Now, I’ll step off my soapbox and return to your regularly scheduled blog post.

Yesterday’s conversation about new Orioles minor leaguer Justin Turner didn’t facilitate as much debate as the previous features in the “Predict the future” series, but the comments seem to prove that fans are preparing for the departure of Brian Roberts.

Most readers agreed that Turner could eventually become Roberts’ replacement if he hits well in the minor leagues during the 2009 season. As a few people noted, however, the 24-year-old second baseman needs to show what he can do as a member of the Orioles’ minor league system in order to be seriously considered as a part of the team’s future.

And, as the reader Jay Sheehan mentioned, the team could always use Turner in a trade if they’re able to extend Roberts. Think of Turner as an insurance policy.

Today, let’s talk about the Orioles’ first-round draft pick during the 2006 MLB draft – third baseman Bill Rowell. This conversation should be interesting because I’ve heard a lot of Orioles fans speak about their frustration and disappointment with his development.

In my opinion, however, Rowell still has plenty of time to become a successful player in the major leagues. Although he hasn’t excelled in his first three professional seasons, the 6-foot-5, 205-pound infielder also hasn’t completely struggled. Remember, he doesn’t celebrate his 21st birthday until September.

While splitting the 2006 season with the rookie-level Bluefield Orioles and short-season Single-A Aberdeen IronBirds, Rowell hit .328 with three home runs and 32 RBIs in 53 games. He had 19 doubles and 46 runs scored.

Rowell batted .273 with nine home runs and 57 RBIs in 91 games for the Single-A Delmarva Shorebirds in 2007. He had 21 doubles and 47 runs scored.

Last season, Rowell struggled to hit consistently as a member of the Single-A Frederick Keys. He batted .248 with seven home runs and 50 RBIs in 111 games for the Keys. Rowell had 24 doubles and 39 runs scored.

Overall, the biggest positive with Rowell is his ability to consistently hit doubles, even though his batting average has declined each season. Theoretically, as he continues to develop and mature as a hitter, the doubles will translate into home runs at higher levels.

With that said, Rowell will need to become more disciplined and cut down on the strikeouts in order to be an effective hitter in the major leagues. In 255 games, Rowell has struck out 267 times, and he’s only collected 96 walks.

Another drawback for Rowell is his defense. He committed 18 errors in 2006, 21 in 2007 and 22 during the 2008 season. If you’re keeping track, that’s 61 errors in three seasons. If he doesn’t improve his defense, Rowell’s only shot at making it to the majors will be as a designated hitter.

It’s crucial for Rowell to take a step in the right direction this season – both offensively and defensively – if he’s going to remain among the top prospects in the organization. Last year, Baseball America listed Rowell as the No. 7 prospect in the Orioles’ minor league system. Before Matt Wieters, Chris Tillman and Brian Matusz entered the picture, the publication listed Rowell as the top prospect in 2006.

Due to his struggles last season, I think it’s almost certain that Rowell will play in Frederick again in 2009. Whether he sinks or swims in the Orioles’ pool of prospects depends exclusively on his performance during the upcoming season.

Because Rowell has had a little bit of success – and he is still young – I believe the third baseman will rebound this season. I think he will hit around .285 with 10-15 home runs and 60-70 RBIs. Look for him to have over 25 doubles and 40-50 runs scored. The strikeouts will continue to be a problem, but hopefully he finds a way to minimize the damage.

What are your expectations for Rowell? Do you think he’ll ever live up to the promise that led the Orioles to draft him in the first round? Will he continue to regress?

I know Orioles fans have strong opinions about Rowell, so let’s hear them.

------------------------

Check out previous installments of "Predict the future" by clicking on the links below:

• Jake Arrieta
• Brad Bergesen
• Brian Matusz
• Lou Montanez
• Hayden Penn
• Chris Tillman
• Justin Turner
• Matt Wieters

Posted by Dean Jones Jr. at 2:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (51)
Categories: Predict the future
        

Last week, we discussed our expectations for Orioles outfielder Lou Montanez in 2009.

It seems like a lot of people think Montanez will succeed offensively this season, regardless of whether it’s in the minor leagues or major leagues. Still, several readers mentioned that he didn’t have great offensive statistics until last season. Those people would like to see the 6-foot-2, 185-pound outfielder repeat his numbers again in the minors before taking on a bigger role with the Orioles.

There were also more than a few comments about using Montanez in a platoon role with Luke Scott in left field. Of course, the Orioles acquired Felix Pie from the Chicago Cubs in exchange for left-handed pitcher Garrett Olson and minor leaguer Hank Williamson earlier this week, and Pie is expected to be the primary left fielder. So, I think many people will want to edit their projections for Montanez during the 2009 season.

With the Orioles picking up Pie, how do you think that affects Montanez in the upcoming season?

Speaking of trades, in case you forgot, the Orioles picked up two prospects along with utility player Ryan Freel in the deal that sent Ramon Hernandez to the Cincinnati Reds earlier in the offseason.

Let’s talk about one of the prospects – Justin Turner – during today’s discussion. I’m assuming most Orioles fans don’t know much about Turner, other than what I posted when the trade occurred.

Here is what MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo said about Turner following the deal.

The Reds selected the 5-foot-11, 180-pound infielder in the seventh round of the 2006 MLB draft.

Turner hit .338 with six home runs and 41 RBIs for the rookie-level Billings Mustangs during his first professional season in 2006. He had 12 stolen bases and 16 doubles in 60 games, while striking out 38 times.

The 24-year-old second baseman, who can also play shortstop, third base and in the outfield, batted .311 with 10 home runs and 59 RBIs in 117 games for the Single-A Dayton Dragons during the 2007 season. Turner had 25 doubles, four triples and 12 stolen bases for the Dragons.

Last season, Turner split time between the Single-A Sarasota Reds and the Double-A Chattanooga Lookouts. He hit .316 with 11 RBIs and 23 runs scored in 33 games for Sarasota before being promoted to Chattanooga. Turner batted .289 with eight home runs and 42 RBIs in 78 games for the Lookouts. He also spent some time on the disabled list after colliding with a teammate during a game in June.

Defensively, Turner has committed 31 errors in 294 minor league games. His worst season was in 2007, when he made 14 errors for Dayton. He made nine errors in 2008.

So, what are your expectations for Turner during the 2009 season? Depending on how the organizational depth chart shakes out during spring training, Turner could start the season with the Double-A Bowie Baysox or the Triple-A Norfolk Tides.

Personally, I’d like to see him as the starting second baseman for the Tides. He could solidify his position as the team’s top prospect at the position with solid offensive numbers in Triple-A. Turner could eventually be the replacement for Brian Roberts if the Orioles are unable to sign the veteran second baseman to a long-term deal.

I’m going to be optimistic and say that Turner will hit .300 with 10-15 home runs and 60-70 RBIs for the Tides. Look for him to be among the league leaders in doubles and runs scored.

Do you think Turner will establish himself as the successor to Roberts? Will he prove to be the most valuable piece of the trade that sent Hernandez to the Reds, or is he destined to spend the rest of his career in the minor leagues?

Let me know what you anticipate from Turner during the upcoming season.

------------------------

Check out previous installments of "Predict the future" by clicking on the links below:

• Jake Arrieta
• Brad Bergesen
• Brian Matusz
• Lou Montanez
• Hayden Penn
• Chris Tillman
• Matt Wieters

Posted by Dean Jones Jr. at 2:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (15)
Categories: Predict the future
        

Another list of minor league signings, which says the Orioles added four players from Jan. 13 to Jan. 16, was recently posted on Baseball America's Web site. One of the signees was Chris Gomez, who actually agreed to terms with the team on Jan. 9.

Unlike Gomez, the other three players are new to the Orioles' minor league system. The team also signed left-handed pitcher Bobby Livingston, right-handed pitcher Blair Johnson and first baseman Craig Brazell to minor league deals.

The Seattle Mariners drafted Livingston in the fourth round of the 2001 draft. After spending more than four seasons in the Mariners' minor league system, the 6-foot-3, 193-pound pitcher made his major league debut on April 25, 2006. He allowed 10 earned runs in five innings for the Mariners before being demoted to the Triple-A Tacoma Rainiers on May 15, 2006.

Following the 2006 season, Livingston was designated for assignment, and the Cincinnati Reds claimed him off waivers. Livingston was 3-3 with a 5.27 ERA in 10 starts for the Reds during the 2007 season, but he was placed on the disabled list on Aug. 24, 2007 with a torn labrum in his throwing shoulder. The 26-year-old pitcher missed the beginning of the 2008 season while recovering from the injury. Livingston was 4-4 with a 4.98 ERA in nine starts for the Triple-A Louisville Bats in 2008. Look for him to provide depth for the Orioles in the minor leagues, perhaps with the Triple-A Norfolk Tides.

Livingston should be familiar with the Baltimore-Washington metropolitan area. As an amateur, he pitched for the Bethesda Big Train in the Clark Griffith League during the summer of 2001. Other Big Train players include former Orioles pitcher John Maine and Washington Nationals minor league right-hander Steve Schmoll, who pitched for the University of Maryland from 2000 to 2003.

The Pittsburgh Pirates selected Johnson in the second round of the 2002 MLB draft, but the 6-foot-4, 218-pound pitcher hasn't pitched above Double-A. His career has been slowed by several injuries, including numerous shoulder ailments.

Johnson, who will turn 25 in March, was 3-2 with a 4.06 ERA in 27 games (one start) with the Single-A Lynchburg Hillcats in 2008. He was also 1-0 with a 10.00 ERA in seven appearances with the Double-A Altoona Curve last season. Overall, Johnson is 18-14 with a 4.36 ERA in 92 games (57 starts) during seven seasons in the Pirates' minor league system.

With his limited experience and past injury issues, it seems to be a longshot that Johnson will ever contribute in the major leagues for the Orioles. Still, he'll likely work out of the bullpen in the minors, and there's always hope that he can rejuvenate his career if he remains healthy.

The New York Mets picked Brazell in the fifth round of the 1998 MLB draft. The 6-foot-3, 211-pound first baseman played for seven seasons in the Mets' minor league system before making his major league debut on Aug. 17, 2004. Brazell hit .265 with one home run and three RBIs in 24 games for the Mets during the 2004 season.

Brazell, who will turn 29 in May, signed as a free agent with the Los Angeles Dodgers in March 2006. He batted .247 with 21 home runs and 91 RBIs in 117 games for the Double-A Jacksonville Suns in the Dodgers' minor league system during the 2006 season.

The left-handed-hitting slugger signed with the Kansas City Royals before the 2007 season, and he led all minor leaguers with 39 home runs and 326 total bases while splitting time between the Double-A Wichita Wranglers and the Triple-A Omaha Royals. Brazell was 1-for-4 in five games with the Royals after being called up in September.

Brazell played with the Seibu Lions in Japan during the 2008 season. He batted .234 with 27 home runs and 87 RBIs in 130 games. Brazell, however, struck out 139 times and only collected 30 walks for the Lions.

At his age, Brazell shouldn't be viewed as a long-term solution in the major leagues. On the other hand, his numbers -- 162 home runs and 629 RBIs in 950 minor league games -- show that he could provide some power to the organization. Keep your eye on Brazell during spring training to see how he performs.

Posted by Dean Jones Jr. at 12:05 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)
        

This Saturday, the Delmarva Shorebirds will be hosting the eighth annual Hot Stove Banquet. The event will be held at the Black Diamond Lodge in Fruitland, and it will start at 6:00 p.m.

The gathering, which will be headlined by former Orioles pitcher and current MASN analyst Dave Johnson, gives fans the opportunity to ask questions about the Orioles' minor league system. Former Orioles third baseman Ryan Minor, who currently coaches with the Shorebirds, and Tripp Norton, the assistant director of minor league operations for the Orioles, will also attend the banquet.

There will be a cocktail hour, buffet dinner, keynote address from Johnson and a question-and-answer session for all guests. The buffet includes a garden salad, roast beef, Jack Daniels chicken, oven roasted potatoes, vegetables, assorted desserts, coffee, tea and soft drinks.

The evening will conclude with a silent auction, which benefits the United Way of the Lower Eastern Shore. Items will be available from dozens of minor league teams and other professional organizations, featuring autographed memorabilia from former major league players and current minor league prospects.

If you're a season-ticket holder with the Shorebirds, it will cost $30 to attend the event. The tickets are $35 for everyone else. For tickets or more information, call the Shorebirds at 410-219-3112 or visit the team's Web site.

Posted by Dean Jones Jr. at 7:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
        

The Orioles have acquired right-handed pitcher David Pauley from the Boston Red Sox in exchange for right-hander Randor Bierd, the team announced today.

The Red Sox designated Pauley for assignment earlier this month when Boston agreed to terms with veteran right-hander John Smoltz.

The San Diego Padres selected Pauley in the eighth round of the 2001 MLB draft. The Red Sox acquired the 6-foot-2, 185-pound pitcher in December 2004, along with infielder Ramon Vazquez and former Orioles outfielder Jay Payton for outfielder Dave Roberts.

In his career, Pauley is 0-3 with a 9.53 ERA in nine major league games. He was 0-1 with an 11.68 ERA in six games (two starts) during the 2008 season with the Red Sox.

When he wasn’t in the majors last season, Pauley was pitching well for the Triple-A Pawtucket Red Sox. He was 14-4 with a 3.55 ERA in 25 starts with Pawtucket. Pauley had 103 strikeouts and walked 41 hitters in 147 innings in Triple-A.

In eight minor league seasons, Pauley is 53-46 with a 3.92 ERA.

He’s been used almost exclusively as a starter in the minors – 174 starts, three relief appearances – so it looks like he could replace Garrett Olson in the contest to earn a spot in the Orioles’ rotation for the 2009 season. Olson was traded yesterday to the Chicago Cubs in exchange for outfielder Felix Pie.

Pauley hasn’t pitched with much success at the major league level, so he’s probably better served to start with the Triple-A Norfolk Tides in 2009. Unfortunately, he's out of options, so that's not going to happen unless he clears waivers. Still, it’s a solid move by the Orioles to bring in more bodies to compete for the team’s Opening Day roster.

If you’re interested, here’s a scouting report on Pauley from SoxProspects.com. For what it’s worth, the Web site says Pauley has the potential to be a fifth starter in the majors. The scouting report also mentions that he needs to work on his control.

The Orioles acquired Bierd from the Detroit Tigers in the 2007 Rule 5 draft. In 29 games with the Orioles, the 24-year-old right-hander went 0-2 with a 4.91 ERA. It was his first career major league experience after spending five seasons in the Tigers’ minor league system.

Posted by Dean Jones Jr. at 2:59 PM | Permalink | Comments (9)
        

After watching the Ravens lose to the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC championship game, there’s only one thing that can cheer up Baltimore sports fans.

Pitchers and catchers report to spring training in less than a month.

OK, so maybe it would make everyone happier if the Orioles were expected to compete in 2009. Hope springs eternal, in my opinion, and baseball season is still my favorite time of year. A lot of people in Baltimore will share that sentiment when the Orioles finally become a contender again. It will happen sometime in the future. I guarantee it.

Remember, no one expected the Ravens to be as successful as they were this season.

In case you missed it, the Orioles acquired outfielder Felix Pie from the Chicago Cubs yesterday in exchange for left-handed starting pitcher Garrett Olson and minor league right-hander Hank Williamson.

The best story about Pie – and the most painful – has to be this one. If you’re a guy, I advise you to read with caution. And I don’t know how that is considered a minor surgery.

Pie was the top prospect in the Cubs’ minor league system during the 2006 and 2007 seasons, according to Baseball America. The publication also rated him as the best athlete and best defensive outfielder in the organization in 2007.

In 130 major league games during the past two seasons, the 6-foot-2, 170-pound outfielder batted .223 with three home runs and 30 RBIs. Pie, who will turn 24 on Feb. 8, hit .215 with two home runs and 20 RBIs in 87 games during the 2007 season. He batted .241 with one home run and 10 RBIs in 43 games with the Cubs in 2008.

Pie has a .299 career batting average in seven minor league seasons. He hit .287 with 10 home runs and 55 RBIs in 85 games for the Triple-A Iowa Cubs last season. Pie batted .362 with nine home runs and 43 RBIs in 55 games for Iowa in 2007. In 141 games for Iowa during the 2006 season, Pie hit .283 with 15 home runs and 57 RBIs.

With Adam Jones in center field and Nick Markakis in right field, it looks like Pie will get the majority of his playing time in left field. It should be noted that the Dominican Republic native has very little experience at the position. Pie told Baltimore Sun reporter Dan Connolly that he doesn’t think he’s ever played left field in the minor leagues, and he only appeared at the position during three games in the majors.

Although Pie is considered an above-average defensive outfielder, it might be difficult for him to adjust to a new position. Pie collected 53 outfield assists in 627 minor league games, including 18 with Iowa in 2006. He committed 33 errors in the minors. Pie didn’t commit any errors in the major leagues, and he had two outfield assists.

Olson, who the Orioles selected in the first round of the 2005 MLB draft, was 10-13 with a 6.87 ERA in two major league seasons with the team. The 25-year-old left-hander was 9-10 with a 6.65 ERA in 26 starts with the Orioles during the 2008 season, and he was 1-2 with a 2.97 ERA in seven starts with the Triple-A Norfolk Tides.

Williamson split the 2008 season with the short-season Single-A Aberdeen IronBirds and the Single-A Delmarva Shorebirds. He was 0-1 with a 4.76 ERA in 17 games with the short-season Single-A Aberdeen IronBirds. In three games with the Shorebirds, the 23-year-old relief pitcher had eight strikeouts and didn’t allow any earned runs. The Orioles selected the 6-foot-5, 225-pound right-hander in the 14th round of the 2007 MLB draft.

I have mixed feelings about this trade. If Pie plays well, the Orioles could potentially be set in the outfield for at least the next decade. On the other hand, Olson is a young starting pitcher and everyone knows the Orioles need all the help they can get in their rotation.

Still, no matter how it turns out, this trade shouldn’t be ranked among the major moves in the history of the organization. It’s a low-risk transaction that could pay big dividends if the former top prospect lives up to his potential. It’s exactly the type of deal the Orioles should be doing if they’re looking to rebuild and become a contender again.

What are your thoughts on the trade? Do you think the Orioles made the right decision to acquire Pie? What are your expectations for him in left field during the upcoming season?

Posted by Dean Jones Jr. at 2:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (24)
        

During our discussion about Orioles pitching prospect Jake Arrieta, almost everyone agreed that he should work on his command before progressing too far in the Orioles’ minor league system.

The general consensus among those who participated in the debate was that he should start the season with the Double-A Bowie Baysox. Some people thought it would be better if the 22-year-old right-hander spent the entire season in Bowie, while others believed it would be good if he finished the season with the Triple-A Norfolk Tides.

A few readers mentioned that Arrieta should be promoted to the major leagues in September if he puts up good numbers in the minors. We’ll have to keep a close eye on Arrieta’s progress in 2008 because it will be an important year for his development as a prospect in the organization.

Next, I’d like to talk about a player who emerged as a legitimate power hitter with his breakout season as a member of the Baysox in 2008. Lou Montanez won the Triple Crown in the Eastern League after hitting .335 with 26 home runs and 97 RBIs in 116 games for Bowie last season. The 27-year-old outfielder batted .295 with three home runs and 14 RBIs in 38 games for the Orioles after he was promoted in August.

With those numbers, Montanez deserves to have an opportunity to play every day in the major leagues. Prior to last year, however, the 6-foot-2, 185-pound outfielder never had more than 14 home runs or 62 RBIs in a single season.

Typically, I would like to see a player consistently perform at a high level for more than one season before giving him an opportunity in the major leagues. Still, Montanez didn’t do anything to harm his chances in the couple months that he was in the major leagues at the end of the 2008 season. He proved that he was able to hit major league pitching, and he seemed to improve his defense with more experience.

Why does it seem like there won’t be any room for Montanez with the big league club to start the 2009 season? Well, unfortunately for him, the Orioles have solid outfielders at all three positions. It would be nice to see Montanez coming off the bench as a late-inning pinch-hitter, but I’d rather see him playing every day in Norfolk than riding the pine in Baltimore.

The best-case scenario, in my opinion, is for Montanez to hit around .500 in spring training and force his way into the major leagues. But he should be the starting left fielder for the Tides if the Orioles aren’t going to use him regularly.

As much as I’d like to see Montanez playing at Camden Yards in April, I think he’ll be in Triple-A for most of the season. Look for him to hit around .300 with 25-30 home runs and 90-100 RBIs with the Tides in 2009. Unfortunately, I don’t expect Montanez to spend much time in the majors – unless one of the outfielders suffers an injury and Montanez is needed as a full-time starter. I’m sure Orioles fans don’t want Nick Markakis, Adam Jones or Luke Scott to get hurt, so it’s probably safe to assume Montanez won’t be a regular in the Orioles’ starting lineup this season.

What do you think the Orioles should do with Montanez this season? Should he split time with Scott in left field? Would it be a good idea to use Aubrey Huff as the starting first baseman and have Montanez serve as the full-time designated hitter?

I think Montanez earned the respect of a lot of Orioles fans with his performance last season, so I’m curious to hear your thoughts. Let me know if you agree with my predictions, or if you’re more optimistic about his future.

------------------------

Check out previous installments of "Predict the future" by clicking on the links below:

• Jake Arrieta
• Brad Bergesen
• Brian Matusz
• Hayden Penn
• Chris Tillman
• Matt Wieters

Posted by Dean Jones Jr. at 1:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (59)
Categories: Predict the future
        

Several former Orioles players – in the major leagues, as well as the minors – have recently signed minor league contracts with other organizations, according to Baseball America.

Shortstop Juan Castro, who hit .205 with two home runs and 16 RBIs in 54 games for the Orioles last season, agreed to terms with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Omir Santos, who batted .269 with one home run and 36 RBIs in 84 games for the Triple-A Norfolk Tides in 2008, signed with the New York Mets. The 27-year-old catcher also appeared in 11 games with the Orioles.

Josh Towers, a right-handed pitcher who was 8-13 with a 5.05 ERA in 29 games (23 starts) for the Orioles during the 2001 and 2002 seasons, agreed to terms with the Washington Nationals. The 31-year-old pitcher was 6-7 with a 6.27 ERA in 31 games (15 starts) for the Triple-A Colorado Springs Sky Sox, an affiliate of the Colorado Rockies, in 2008.

Gustavo Molina, who appeared in seven games with the Orioles in 2007, also joined the Nationals. The 26-year-old catcher appeared in two games with the Mets last season. He also batted .206 with seven home runs and 27 RBIs in 74 games for the Triple-A New Orleans Zephyrs in the Mets’ minor league system.

Relief pitcher Dave Borkowski, who was 3-4 with a 5.14 ERA in 17 games with the Orioles in 2004, agreed to a minor league deal with the Philadelphia Phillies. The 31-year-old right-hander was 0-2 with a 7.50 ERA in 26 appearances for the Houston Astros during the 2008 season.

Speaking of the Astros, they recently agreed to terms with two former Orioles pitchers. Russ Ortiz, who was 0-3 with an 8.48 ERA in 20 games (five starts) for the Orioles in 2006, is attempting to return to professional baseball after missing the entire 2008 season because of arm surgery. Chad Paronto, who was drafted in the eighth round of the 1996 MLB draft by the Orioles, re-signed with Houston. The 33-year-old right-hander was 0-1 with a 4.35 ERA in six appearances for the Astros in 2008. He spent most of the season with the Triple-A Round Rock Express, where he was 0-2 with a 3.08 ERA in 35 games.

Finally, former Orioles minor leaguer Angel Chavez agreed to terms with the Boston Red Sox. Don’t worry if you can’t remember him. The 27-year-old infielder only played four games in the Orioles’ minor league system after he was acquired from the Phillies for Jeff Conine in 2006. Chavez was 4-for-15 with two doubles and three stolen bases for the Double-A Bowie Baysox, and he became a free agent following that season.

Posted by Dean Jones Jr. at 12:15 PM | Permalink | Comments (4)
Categories: Former O's minor leaguers
        

In the latest update of minor league transactions on the Baseball America Web site, it’s mentioned that the Orioles recently agreed to deals with catchers Robby Hammock and Guillermo Quiroz, infielder Jolbert Cabrera and outfielder Justin Christian. None of those moves should be surprising to Orioles fans because they’ve all been reported by The Baltimore Sun and other media outlets over the past few weeks.

While fans shouldn’t expect much from these signings other than depth for the teams in the Orioles’ minor league system -- and maybe a backup catcher -- I’m going to keep an eye on Christian. The 28-year-old outfielder hit .250 with six RBIs and seven stolen bases in 24 games for the New York Yankees last season. He also batted .306 with six home runs, 45 RBIs and 22 stolen bases in 74 games for the Triple-A Scranton-Wilkes Barre Yankees in 2008. The Yankees didn’t tender Christian a contract for the upcoming season, so he elected to become a free agent.

In 486 career games in the minor leagues, Christian has 195 stolen bases and he’s only been caught stealing 34 times. He stole 68 bases in 129 games for the Double-A Trenton Thunder in 2006. Christian has a .287 career batting average in five seasons in the minor leagues. I don’t expect him to make any major contributions with the Orioles, but he could be a solid midseason option if someone gets hurt.

The biggest news, however, in Baseball America’s entry is that the Orioles released 14 players from the minor league rosters. The biggest name on the list, in my opinion, is catcher Zach Dillon.

The Orioles selected the 25-year-old catcher in the 20th round of the 2006 MLB draft, but injuries hampered his career in the organization. Dillon put up his best offensive numbers in 2007, when he hit .275 with five home runs and 41 RBIs in 92 games with the Single-A Frederick Keys. Due to an injury, he only played in 32 games split between the Keys, Double-A Bowie Baysox and the rookie-level Gulf Coast League Orioles during the 2008 season.

The 14 players who were mentioned on Baseball America as being recently released by the Orioles are listed below, in alphabetical order:

SS Jason Altenhof
SS Malcolm Crowley
C Zachary Dillon
OF Danny Heller
C Justin Martin
OF Francisco Mejia
RHP Aubrey Miller
RHP Marcus Moore
RHP Robert Neigebauer
LHP Aaron Odom
OF Nick Ray
C Michael Pierce
C Josh Tarnow
RHP Kyle Touchatt

Posted by Dean Jones Jr. at 12:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (4)
        

One thing I learned from last week’s discussion about Brad Bergesen is that Orioles fans would be satisfied to have a pitcher in the rotation who won’t walk many hitters – even if he doesn’t collect many strikeouts.

After watching a number of young Orioles pitchers issue too many walks over the past few seasons, I can’t blame fans for valuing control over power when it comes to a pitching staff.

There was a lot of debate about the value of strikeouts and how that translates to success in the major leagues. Good points were made from both sides of the conversation, but I think it’s best to judge a pitcher’s future on an individual basis. The historical statistics might show that a pitcher with a low strikeout-to-walk ratio won’t have a good career, but that doesn’t mean he can’t overcome the odds and be a solid contributor.

Bergesen won’t be as successful in 2009 as last season with the Double-A Bowie Baysox, in my opinion, but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t have a future with the Orioles. Not everyone is going to show constant improvement from one season to the next. It’s a gradual process, and I think the 23-year-old right-hander eventually should play in the major leagues.

At worst, the 6-foot-2, 205-pound pitcher will be able to help the Orioles as a long reliever. At best, he’ll secure a spot in the rotation.

Today, we’ll take a look at another top pitching prospect in the Orioles’ minor league system – Jake Arrieta.

The right-handed starting pitcher, who will turn 23 in March, led the Carolina League with a 2.87 ERA last season. Arrieta was 6-5 in 20 starts for the Single-A Frederick Keys. Despite missing the final six weeks of the minor league season while playing with the U.S. Olympic team in Beijing, he finished fourth in the league with 120 strikeouts.

The biggest thing, in my opinion, that Arrieta needs to improve in 2009 is his control. The 6-foot-4, 225-pound pitcher issued 51 walks in 113 innings during the 2008 season, which was the fifth-highest total in the league.

The Orioles’ fifth-round selection in the 2007 MLB draft received several accolades in 2008. In addition to being chosen to represent the United States in Beijing, Arrieta was also selected to play for the U.S. team in the MLB Futures Game at Yankee Stadium as part of the All-Star festivities. He was also named the Carolina League Pitcher of the Year.

It’s going to be interesting to see where Arrieta pitches in 2009. At his age, I’d like to believe he’s ready to pitch for the Triple-A Norfolk Tides. However, it’s going to be tough to make room for him in the Tides’ rotation because the four starting pitchers from Bowie – Bergesen, David Hernandez, Jason Berken and Chris Tillman – all deserve an opportunity to advance to the next level.

I don’t think Tillman will be moved up to Norfolk, but he certainly has a better argument than Arrieta because Tillman has already performed well at a higher level. That’s why I think Arrieta will start the 2009 season in Bowie. Look for him to force his way into Triple-A by the middle of the year if he pitches the way he did for the Keys in 2008.

If Arrieta completely dominates the competition in Bowie, he deserves to be called up to the major leagues in September. Although he hasn’t pitched above Single-A, Arrieta seems to be on the right track to the majors. His experience with the U.S. Olympic team should help him to move quickly through the organization.

Look for Arrieta to be among the Eastern League leaders in wins, ERA and strikeouts in 2009. If any of Norfolk’s starting pitchers struggle, Arrieta will be promoted to fill the void.

He needs to reduce the amount of walks, but I think Arrieta will continue to progress this season. I’m not sure that he’ll get a chance to play in the major leagues in 2009 – it depends on the Orioles’ approach with him – but Arrieta has a tremendous upside.

What are your expectations for Arrieta in 2009? Do you think he’ll be in the major leagues at any point this season? Would you rather see him work on his control before making the jump to Norfolk?

Let me hear your predictions for Arrieta. What do you think is a realistic estimate for the time of his arrival with the Orioles?

------------------------

Check out previous installments of "Predict the future" by clicking on the links below:

• Brad Bergesen
• Brian Matusz
• Hayden Penn
• Chris Tillman
• Matt Wieters

Posted by Dean Jones Jr. at 3:15 PM | Permalink | Comments (28)
Categories: Predict the future
        

Judging from yesterday’s discussion about Brian Matusz, Orioles fans seem to be undecided on where the 21-year-old left-hander should start the 2009 season.

Let me clarify that I’m not saying it’s best for Matusz to start next season at Single-A Frederick, but that's what the Orioles are likely to do. He’ll celebrate his 22nd birthday in the beginning of February, so it’s not like we’re talking about a kid who is fresh out of high school. I think, however, the Orioles will take it slow with the 6-foot-5, 200-pound pitcher, and that's why I suggested that he'll spend at least half of the season with the Keys.

Matusz already has a good level of experience from pitching in the West Coast Conference at the University of San Diego, as well as in the Arizona Fall League, but the Orioles have several other solid pitchers in the minor leagues. Matusz is one of their prized possessions, and they’re not going to damage his career by rushing him through the organization if he’s not completely ready. If Matusz shows that he’s able to handle the competition in Frederick, they’ll promote him to the Double-A Bowie Baysox and give him a bigger test.

Remember, the Orioles started catcher Matt Wieters at Frederick, and he played in college in the Atlantic Coast Conference at Georgia Tech. Wieters dominated in the Carolina League, but the Orioles didn’t move him up to Bowie until the middle of the season. Throw in the fact that pitching is much different than hitting and the Orioles likely won't be moving quickly to promote Matusz.

Next, I’d like to hear your thoughts on right-handed pitcher Brad Bergesen.

The 6-foot-2, 205-pound starting pitcher emerged as a viable candidate for the Orioles’ rotation of the future with his breakout performance in Bowie during the 2008 season.

Bergesen, who was honored by the Orioles as the Jim Palmer Minor League Pitcher of the Year, established a franchise record for wins in a season by going 15-6 with a 3.22 ERA in 24 games (23 starts) for the Baysox. The 23-year-old pitcher led the team with 148 innings, and he tossed three complete games. Before being promoted to Bowie, Bergesen was 1-1 with a 2.08 ERA in four games (three starts) for the Keys.

Still, I’m not convinced that Bergesen is worthy of being considered among the top pitching prospects in the organization. Although the Orioles’ fourth-round pick in the 2004 MLB draft seems to have tremendous control – only 27 walks issued at Bowie in 2008 – he doesn’t overpower hitters. Bergesen only had 72 strikeouts last season, so he’s not as good at putting batters away as Matusz, Chris Tillman, David Hernandez and others.

Looking at his past statistics, it makes me wonder if Bergesen simply had an atypical season in 2008.

While splitting time between the Keys and Single-A Delmarva Shorebirds during the 2007 season, he was 10-9 with a 3.52 ERA in 25 starts. That doesn’t look too bad, until you consider that he was only 3-6 with a 5.75 ERA in 10 starts with the Keys.

Bergesen had a 4.29 ERA in 18 games (14 starts) for the Shorebirds in 2006, and he was 1-3 with a 4.82 ERA in 15 starts for the short-season Single-A Aberdeen IronBirds during the 2005 season.

While I’m not sold on Bergesen’s status as one of the best pitching prospects in the organization, I think he’s earned his promotion to the Triple-A Norfolk Tides. But I don’t believe he’s going to have statistics similar to his performance at Bowie in 2008.

Bergesen, in my opinion, will put up numbers closer to what Hayden Penn did for the Tides last season. Penn was 6-7 with a 4.79 ERA in 21 starts at Norfolk in 2008. He had 65 strikeouts and issued 35 walks in 99 2/3 innings.

Even though Bergesen will pitch more innings -- because he shouldn’t miss time due to injuries like Penn -- I’d expect him to be 10-11 with a 4.50 ERA in 25 starts at Norfolk. He’ll post a similar strikeout-to-walk ratio as Penn did in 2008 with the Tides.

What are your thoughts on Bergesen’s future performance? Do you think he’ll continue to pitch successfully as he climbs up the organizational ladder? Should he play with the Orioles at any point during the 2009 season?

Let me know your predictions for Bergesen during the upcoming season, as well as how you think he’ll perform over the rest of his career. Will he become a solid middle-of-the-rotation starting pitcher for the Orioles in the future?

------------------------

Check out previous installments of "Predict the future" by clicking on the links below:

• Brian Matusz
• Hayden Penn
• Chris Tillman
• Matt Wieters

Posted by Dean Jones Jr. at 3:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (48)
Categories: Predict the future
        

Surprisingly, a lot of readers agreed with me in the discussion about Hayden Penn.

To be honest, I thought it was too optimistic when I projected Penn to win 10 games for the Orioles in 2009. Several readers, however, agreed with me and echoed the sentiment that he’ll be successful in the major leagues this season.

Not everyone expected the 24-year-old right-hander to collect that many wins, but I think we all can agree that it will be a giant step forward if Penn, who has been hindered by injuries in his career, is able to stay healthy for the entire year and make a contribution in the majors.

Since the Orioles recently agreed to terms with free-agent pitcher Koji Uehara, Penn’s role in the organization could change for the upcoming season. Uehara is another player who will compete with Penn for a spot in the rotation, so it will be interesting to see how the roster develops in spring training.

I’m sticking by my prediction for now, but it may need to be modified before the season starts.

Let’s dive back into the pool of promising pitching prospects and discuss left-hander Brian Matusz today.

The Orioles selected the 21-year-old starting pitcher from the University of San Diego in the first round of last year’s MLB draft. Matusz was named the Pitcher of the Year in the West Coast Conference in 2008. He was 12-2 with a 1.71 ERA and three complete-game shutouts in 15 games (14 starts) as a junior for the Toreros. In 105 innings, Matusz had 141 strikeouts with only 22 walks.

Matusz was 10-3 with a 2.85 ERA and 163 strikeouts in 123 innings during the 2007 season. As a freshman in 2006, the 6-foot-5, 200-pound pitcher was 4-3 with a 4.25 ERA in 89 innings. He had 93 strikeouts that season.

After signing with the Orioles, Matusz worked out with the short-season Single-A Aberdeen IronBirds, but he wasn't on the team's active roster. He also represented the organization as a member of the Surprise Rafters in the Arizona Fall League. In seven games (six starts) for Surprise, Matusz was 2-4 with a 4.73 ERA. He had 31 strikeouts and walked seven hitters in 26 2/3 innings.

Nothing is official yet, but it looks like the Single-A Frederick Keys will be the first destination for Matusz in 2009. If he performs well with the Keys, Matusz could be moved up to the Double-A Bowie Baysox by the All-Star break.

I’m expecting Matusz to make about 15 starts with Frederick before earning a promotion to Bowie. He should collect at least eight wins with a 3.25 ERA as a member of the Keys. For the Baysox, I think he will win six games and have a 3.75 ERA. Look for him to have around 125 total strikeouts between the two levels.

What are your thoughts about Matusz for the upcoming season? Do you think it would be a mistake if the Orioles start him in Frederick, or is it good if they take a patient approach? When do you think he’ll be pitching for the Orioles?

As always, tell me if you think I’m completely wrong with my predictions. Feel free to include your projections for Matusz over the length of his entire career.

------------------------

Check out previous installments of "Predict the future" by clicking on the links below:

• Hayden Penn
• Chris Tillman
• Matt Wieters

Posted by Dean Jones Jr. at 2:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (37)
Categories: Predict the future
        

First of all, I'd like to wish a happy birthday to my dad. I won't list his age because I'm sure he doesn't want the loyal readers of O's on Deck to know that much about him. Let's just say he's old enough to remember all of the Orioles' World Series championships, but not quite as old as the team.

Last week’s discussion about Chris Tillman showed that Orioles fans are split on whether the 20-year-old right-hander should start the 2009 season in Triple-A Norfolk or Double-A Bowie.

There were good arguments on both sides of the debate.

Tillman showed that he was able to pitch effectively against the competition in Double-A last season – 11-4 with a 3.18 ERA – but he also struggled with his control. The 6-foot-5, 195-pound pitcher walked 65 hitters in 135 2/3 innings – the third-highest total in the Eastern League. On the other hand, Tillman could work out the problems against better players as he continues to climb the ladder through the organization.

The Orioles will need to decide what is best for the young pitcher’s future, but I think it would be ideal for Tillman to prove that he’s able to harness his control and command in Bowie before making the jump to the next level.

Remember, there’s no requirement saying Tillman needs to spend any time with Norfolk. If he dominates at Bowie in 2009, the Orioles could decide he’s ready to pitch at Camden Yards without any Triple-A experience. I’m not saying that’s what should be done, but it’s possible.

That philosophy didn’t work out for the Orioles with starting pitcher Daniel Cabrera. The 27-year-old right-hander was promoted from Bowie to the Orioles in 2004, and he hasn’t been able to live up to his potential on a consistent basis in the major leagues. If it happens now, it will be with another team because the Orioles finally gave up on Cabrera. He will be playing for the Washington Nationals in 2009.

Do you remember the discussion from last month about rushing prospects to the major leagues?

In retrospect, Cabrera seems to be a player who was promoted to the majors too early. He serves as a perfect example of why the Orioles should take their time with young pitching prospects.

Another instance where the Orioles rushed a pitcher to the majors was Hayden Penn in 2005. They also promoted him directly from Bowie. Like Tillman, he was a 20-year-old prospect at the time. Penn was 3-2 with a 6.34 ERA in eight starts for the Orioles during the 2005 season. In six starts at the end of 2006, he was 0-4 with a 15.10 ERA.

Speaking of control issues, Penn’s struggles during his two stints in the major leagues were magnified by his inability to consistently throw strikes. In 58 innings with the Orioles, Penn walked 34 hitters and only had 26 strikeouts.

Last season, Penn was 6-7 with a 4.79 ERA in 21 starts for Norfolk. He had 65 strikeouts and 35 walks in 99 2/3 innings for the Tides. Penn also allowed 14 home runs in 2008.

As Peter Schmuck mentioned on his blog last week, the Orioles will be forced to make a difficult decision in spring training because Penn is out of minor league options.

So, if you’re the Orioles, what do you do with Penn in 2009? Do you give him a spot in the rotation regardless of his performance during the spring? Does he have to earn his way to the majors? Do you gamble and try to sneak him by the other 29 organizations and outright him to Norfolk?

Personally, I think Penn could be a surprise for the Orioles this season. If he’s able to stay healthy – yes, I realize that’s the million-dollar question – he might fill a rotation spot for the near future. With the emergence of the young pitching prospects, Orioles fans have often overlooked Penn, but he can earn his way back into the team’s plans in 2009.

I think he’s going to be the Orioles’ fifth starter, and he’ll win 10 games this season.

Stop laughing.

When it comes true, I’ll be the first person to remind you of my prediction.

I guarantee it.

Let’s hear your thoughts about how Penn will perform in 2009. I doubt anyone will be as optimistic as I am, but do you think he’ll make a solid contribution with the Orioles? Does he fit into the future of the organization after this season?

Posted by Dean Jones Jr. at 1:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (60)
Categories: Predict the future
        

First, I’d like to wish everyone a Happy New Year.

Last year – OK, so it was Monday – we discussed the future of catcher Matt Wieters. Many people feel the top prospect will be playing for the Orioles at some point in 2009. Some readers think he’ll start the year in the major leagues, but most folks agreed that Wieters would be called up during the middle of the season.

I also enjoyed the few readers who pointed out that predicting Wieters’ future means picking which team he’ll join as a free agent -- the New York Yankees or Boston Red Sox -- when he's eligible. We shouldn’t get that far ahead. Let the 22-year-old kid play at least one game in Camden Yards before we send him off to join Mark Teixeira in the Bronx.

If you didn’t participate in the predictions for Wieters, I’ll give you a brief summary of what to expect in the "Predict the future" entries. I’ll list some background about the player’s statistics, as well as my expectations for the 2009 season. Your job is to tell me whether you agree with me or not. I want to hear your predictions for the player in the upcoming season, but feel free to expand deeper into the future and include his final career statistics.

You can continue adding predictions about Wieters, but I’m going to head into the pitching department today.

The Orioles have a lot of pitching prospects in the organization, but a few stand out above the others. Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta and Brian Matusz are regarded among the best in professional baseball by many publications. Tillman was acquired in the trade that sent Erik Bedard to the Seattle Mariners prior to last season, and the Orioles drafted Arrieta and Matusz.

Tillman was 11-4 with a 3.18 ERA in 28 starts for Double-A Bowie in 2008. He was fifth in the Eastern League in ERA and tied for sixth in the league in wins. Tillman also finished second in the league with 154 strikeouts. He trailed teammate David Hernandez (166) in that category.

The 20-year-old right-hander was 7-11 with a 4.84 ERA in 28 starts while splitting time between the Single-A Wisconsin Timber Rattlers and Single-A High Desert Mavericks in the Mariners’ minor league system during the 2007 season.

It’s difficult to predict Tillman’s performance for the upcoming season because he doesn’t have much professional experience. This will only be his third full season in the minor leagues, so the Orioles could choose to move him along slowly.

I think a lot of fans will complain if the Orioles start Tillman at Bowie in 2009, but that seems like the best move to me.

Between players being demoted from the majors and others making the jump from Double-A, the Orioles have several pitchers who can fight for positions in the rotation at Triple-A Norfolk. Therefore, I don’t see any reason why Tillman should be rushed to the Tides.

Let Tillman start the year in Bowie. If he starts strong, the Orioles should be willing to find room in Norfolk to continue his development. Tillman shouldn’t struggle since he’s already been through a full season in the Eastern League. If that happens, however, he’ll have plenty of time to work out the problems without facing the pressure to succeed at a higher level.

I think Tillman will pitch well in the first half of the season in Bowie and earn a promotion to Norfolk around the All-Star break. Look for him to be among the leaders in the Eastern League in wins, strikeouts and ERA when he’s called up from Double-A. He may struggle to adapt to Triple-A at first, especially if the Orioles put him in Norfolk to begin the season, but Tillman should continue to develop along the path to the majors in 2009.

What are your thoughts on Tillman? Do you think it’s wrong if the Orioles assign him to Bowie again in 2009? Should he start at Norfolk and possibly earn a promotion to the major leagues at the end of the season? Is it better to throw him into the waters of Triple-A and see if he can sink or swim?

Let me know what you think, including exact statistics if you’re willing to be brave.

Posted by Dean Jones Jr. at 10:35 PM | Permalink | Comments (48)
Categories: Predict the future