Matt will be called up by May 6th because of the lack of production behind the plate for the O's and the fact that he's tearing up Triple A with a .325/14 hrs and 37 RBIs.

He will hit .295 with 16 hrs and 51 RBIs with the big club.

Hi Dean,

I am uncertain just what the Orioles thinking is but think the best scenerio would be for him to stay in AAA and help our young pitching learn to be winners.
We need a change of culture at the major league level and the best way to do it is to have our prospects learn to win together at AAA. They can bring that culture with them in 2010.

I expect Matt to hit around 300 with 20 hrs etc. I also expect him to learn the pitchers and become a good defensive player

Tim

Personally I think triple A is overrated, I cannot see how that will help him along. Considering he played in college, and has excelled as you noted everywhere, put him on the big league club with a good catcher and let him get his feet wet that way. If the Orioles were at a point of competing that would make things different.

I think Weiters would struggle for the first 100 at bats or so, then like most of the better hitters in the game, gets his rythm and then there is no looking back. Remeber how close Nick was to getting sent back down? He was floating around 220on a Saturday, they were going to send him down after the weekend but Gibbons got hurt. He went 4 for 4 and then went on to hit 291 with (10HRs in August) 16 HRs.
I would consider Cakes a slow starter. I think Nolan Riemolds problem will also be that he is a slow starter. Look at the first few games no matter where he plays. If you took the first 3 weeks out of his Bowie season last year, or the first few games out of the AFL stats.
I remember playing in High School, it always took me a few games before I started really heating up. Weiters will be up as soon as the service clock allows. I think it is 21 games or so. I say May. Let him get confortable offensively before the young Arms start coming up, that way he is more relaxed and can concentrate on calling games and developing a repor with the staff.

My expectations for Matt Wieters are tiered, depending on Spring Training:

1. I expect Matt to get a significant opportunity to win a spot on the major league roster.
2. If Matt wins a spot, I want at least one veteran catcher who is comfortable being the mentor/part time catcher, and hopefully another veteran catcher as well, for depth and in case Matt has to go back to the minors.
3. If Matt doesn't earn a spot, I want him paired with the greatest number of our young pitchers as possible. Are the bulk of our top prospects (Tillman, Hernandez, Bergeron, etc.) slated for Double A or Triple A? Wherever they go, Wieters should go.
4. If Matt is in the minors, he's going to tear it apart until they call him up.
5. If Matt starts in the Majors, he'll start hot, struggle for a while, and then by the end of the season I predict:

.270
12 HR
15 Doubles
30 Runs
38 RBI
350 AB

all with a good Walk/Strike Out ratio, solid defense and countless important lessons in calling pitches and managing the game at the major league level.

In 2010:

.310
27 HR
35 Doubles
85 Runs
110 RBI

Finishes in the top five for the AL MVP.

ml (Orioles Fan since the 1966 World Series)

I think Wieters will be left in the minors long enough to keep him from getting a full year of major league (Evan Longoria) service time before being called up. I believe this would have in Baltimore in May. At that time, he will hit over .300 with 20 home runs for the rest of the year. They will probably put him near the bottom of the order (keeping his RBI's down), and a mistake in my opinion, thinking they want to protect him (Jones 2008). Plug him in the 4 hole behind Roberts, Jones, Markikas and in front of Huff and I believe you got a respectable line-up. Unfortuntately, with no pitching the Orioles still only managed to get 70 wins in 2009.

I think he will be up w/the Orioles in May/June...so he gets a little seasoning in the minors and also to not have his service time start until the following year.

Then, I predict he'll be in a Yankee uniform when his 6 years are up in Baltimore.

Funny I keep hearing from locals how Weiters will be held back until mid-season but the national pundits all rate him as front runner for rookie of the year. That's hard to do if you don't get a full season in or at least start in May. And, I keep hearing how AA is where the real prospects train and grow whereas AAA is really the land of misfit boys (AAAA). Can you elaborate on what the real benefit of AAA Norfolk would be for him. Is he in need of more grooming on hitting (pitch selection/identification), game calling or possibly defense (catch throw) stuff? I can see advantage of more time with Tillman, Bergesen (underrated like Boddicker and McGregor were) Hernandez, etc. but only if it does not hold Weiters back.

If Matt does well in April at Norfolk, I believe we will see him in the beginning of May. This will extend his clock an aditional year with The orioles just like Evan Longoria and The Rays. I also expect him to put up similar numbers to evan Longoria and win American League Rookie of the Year.

Dean, I couldn't agree with you more! Start Wieters in AAA and let him gain more experience. No need to rush him to the Majors since the BEST CASE scenario for 2009 is an 81 win season (.500), and more realistically, it's another last place finish.
If Wieters continues to progress in AAA, as we all expect, call him up in September.
Dean, we all know this kid can hit, but what's the word on his defensive skills? Is he an all-around player??

Pete, great idea for a continuing post......Matt will hit .340, with 7 homers and 30 RBI's in spring training. Hw will also snag 65% of all base stealers and commit only 1 error (throwing). These numbers would be a lock to start the season at the major league level, but Matt needs the progression to include AAA. At Norfolk he will bat clean-up, hit .330, with 9 homers, and 45 RBIs through June 15th. During that time, he will commit 1 error (throwing) and catch 60% of all base stealers. He will steal 4 bases and be named player of the week 2 times. The O's will promote him to the majors on June 16th and he will begin sharing catching duties with Pudge or Zauny through the end of July, at which time his .320 average, 10 homers, and 34 RBI will force management to play him 6 days a week. Many will say that these might be lofty numbers, and maybe they are, but this kid is for real......and for now, he is our franchise olayer to be.

Hopefully Matt Wieters will decide how long he stays at Triple-A. He should be given a spring training invite and then be sent to Norfolk to start the season. Depending on how he does there should decide when he gets called up. I don't see him struggling too much but let him adjust to the season in the minors. This will be his first full year in professional baseball so he will have an adjustment period. Assuming he is continuing to make progress I predict a July/August call-up. No sense in waiting until September. Wieters will not do well initially in the big leagues, like we will want, but he will have his moments. He will be sort of like Markakis, and then blossom into a real good catcher for a long time. I just hope the O's get a good backup to allow Wieters the rest he will need and not burn him out too early. He'll be a 25-30 homerun guy once he gets established and will throw out base stealers in the upper 30's % range. He'll start out hitting in the #7 hole but I see him ending up somewhere between fourth and sixth.

The Orioles pitching staff is going to be so far below average that the team is going lose a lot of games early. I think they'll be forced to bring Wieters up by mid May to remind the fans something better lies ahead.

Up by the end of May: 275 BA, 62 RBI's, and 17 HR's

No I wouldn't be mad if he stays in Norfolk. I understand the rebuilding is a multiyear process. I think the O's are headed in the right direction and am willing to wait. Besides I live in Chesapeake and the Tides are within 20 miles.

Doug

My take on MW may also be tied to how many of the minor league pitchers the Orioles promote, and when. The more time that MW has with the pitchers that are brought up from the minors, the more likely his promotion. I hope that the major league team we start with is competitive but not at the expense of the farm system that could still use some depth for the future. More one year contracts for this year at the major league level will give the AAA and AA minors the time needed for the 2010 season, especially with a September call up to show who is set for the major league roster. MW could also use that time for some experience hitting against major league pitching.

Predicting the future........signs with the highest bidder (choose between NY, Boston, Chicago) as soon as he's eligible.

I expect that the O's will keep Wieters at AAA to open 2009 for just long enough to delay his arbitratition eligibility clock (along the lines of what the Rays did with Evan Longoria in '08). He can clearly hit and has nothing to prove left in the minors.

So I say he hits .315/.440/.475 at AAA for six weeks, and then .290/.370/.420 in the majors for the rest of the season.

Dean,

My prediction is that Wieters will join the big league club by July. If the O's sign Zaun; I believe Wieters will be on the Opening Day Roster maybe even as the starter. If they sign someone like IROD, Wieters will join the big leagues sometime in July. There is too much pressure on the Orioles to fill seats and give fans some hope for them to leave him in AAA all season.

With that being said if they are actually competitive for most of the year; Wieters could be in AAA all season. I dont think Wieters promotion will be based on how well HE does. I think if the O's come out and get swept by the Yankees; Wieters will be the starting cathcer for the majority of the season. It all depends on how pathetic the big league club looks. My stats:

All year AAA- .275 33HR 92RBI
All year with O's - 250 13HR 52RBI

He will find the strain of catching a full year (he never caught more than 40 games in college) too much to handle for second year and will seek to break into the majors as a 1B/DH competing with Brandon Snyder and Bill Rowell (whom we were promised would be our starting SS/3B combo someday).

What concerns me is the long term effects of a catcher that is 6'5" or is is 6'7"? Bad enough wear and tear on the knees for a short squat catcher but at his height? I see first base in the future...the near future.

If you look at how the Rays handled Longoria the situation with Weiters should pan out the same. So they can keep him under wraps and save some millions down the road, they bring him up laler than sooner. Really from a financial standpoint it makes little sense to bring him up at all but the fans will come out so maybe they bring him up early. It's the O's we're talking about so who knows? 2 years MLB exp. & he'll be a allstar.

I agree most with this prediction, 'Up by the end of May: 275 BA, 62 RBI's, and 17 HR's Posted by: Ray '

I think there's no way the O's keep him at a level anywhere below the bigs after May. I think he'll bat 5th, 2nd and 7th similar to A Jones last year as Trembley puts him in varying situations and run producing/driving roles all over the lineup.

Something else that would be beneficial would be that veteran catcher who is comfortable with the role of being a mentor and not with getting 500 ABs which would eliminate Pudge. Zaun would be ideal as far as I'm concerned.

Back to Wieters, his propensity for making contact leads me to believe that he'll bat at least .282-.290 for every season he gets at least 350 ABs including his rookie year

Maybe MW will win the catchers spot by default, then hit about .345/25/100 for the Orioles in his rookie season, and lead the O's into the wildcard spot for the post season. Sound familiar???

Dean,

A good point is being made at Wieters sheer size and the wear and tear of catching everyday. Eventually he'll be a great power-hitting 1B/DH but he'll be our version of Chris Hoiles but healthier and a much higher batting average.

I expect he'll play in around 90 games for us for the 2009 season.

.288 BA, 19 HR, 67 RBI's

They might as well trade him now because of Boras. It's unreal how much one agent can ruin a sport. It will just be one more player for me to get attached to and then get to watch on an AL East rival.

I watched him play here at GA Tech. I predict that he will be brought up on Mother's Day. By the end of the year, he will make 10 relief appearances. In December 18, 2013, he will sign a 21 year, $1G contract with the Yankees and be given Yankee stadium.

I see him starting at AAA. Gets a little more time to polish his game calling. He'll be up around May 10. Where he will hit .298 23HR 71RBI's and be named AL rookie of the year.

In sharp contrast to the Os in 2009, Wieters' future has a great upside. He
has all the tools but before the Os ruin
him they should allow him to mature at
AAA, learning to call games for the future starting pitchers of the Os.
He is only one season out of college.
Rushing him will be dangerous and do no real good (except put a few more people in the seats-which is why the Os may promote him). The future is not in Camden Yards in '09.It is in
Norfolk for at least several months.

Dean, Even if Matt performs well in spring training, they sould keep him down in AAA until he (a) shows that he can handle that level, and (b) to avoid burning a one of his 6 years. Unless the Orioles have an unlikely turn-around, he will be gone to free agency after 6 years.

Don't hold your breath waiting for Snyder and Rowell to become our corner infielders. Rowell especially is simply another Baltimore first round draft bust.

You know he needs to stay in the minors up to the Break so the O's don't grant him seniority. God forbid they put the ballclub, or a ballplayer's development, ahead of $$. Obviously I understand that Angelos needs to watch his pennies -- it's reasonable to assume that this billionaire got smacked in the stock market downturn. Hmm...maybe if the market goes down more, he'll not be able to afford screwing the O's and their fans anymore...just a thought.

Weiters will hit for a good average when he comes up, .280 or better. The HR and RBIs will come.

Weiters will start the season catching Tillman, Arrieta, Matusz (if in AAA), hernandez etc. They need the most time together and it is important to know the pitchers before you are trying to call a game at the major league level.

Weiters will hit .301 with 12 HRs over the first 45 games in AAA. Then he gets a callup delaying his FA clock by a year.

Weiters will hit .282 with 10 HRs and 49 RBI with the parent club. He will throw out 28% of stealing attempts; we will also see a catcher who can block the plate; take at least 6 assits from Markakis gunning runners down at home.

Well, I think it is greatly impacted by the catcher we acquire to hold down C until Wieters is ready. If we get a Zaun-type vet with plenty of MLB experience there then we have much more leverage to keep him in the minors. If we get another Quiroz type of tweener, our hand may get forced. I see Andy making a lot of background moves on the cheap that will allow us to have more options later. I believe we need to be able to have the option of moving Wieters up or down at will as his development warrants. Placing him in a position where he can't be successful because we have no choice but to CANNOT happen.

Six weeks max in AAA. Wins ROY.
Ave .290
Hr 20
RBI 62

Starts out in 7th hole, moves up in order as he produces ala NM.

I think a lot of organizations over think and over protect young players these days. If Wieters has a camp that resembles last year's he should begin the season in the show and start getting the experience he needs at the highest level. That appears to be the only thing he lacks. He's torn it up at every minor league level they had him. Same thing with the young pitchers. If they come up and get shelled, it isn't going to kill them. They need to know what it takes to perform at that level. If they get sent down to work on some things that's fine. The big league opportunity points out EXACTLY what they must work on. I think we can expect Wieters to have a great spring and hopefully the O's will have enough courage to give him a shot. It didn't hurt Markakis!

Wieters Big league stats this year:
(Assuming no less than 400 ABs)

.280 avg
12 HR
52 RBI

They may be a little conservative

I think Wieters is going to have a fine year, but I'm not going to think of him as the second coming. A single player does not make a team and he doesn't need that kind of pressure.

Uh, one month in triple A to start the season means one whole extra year of organizational control. No brainer. Let him hit .350 in Norfolk for a month, then bring him up. He'll hit .285 his first year in the majors with 16 homeruns.

He'll be up by early May.

.290/.364/..470 with 20 HRs

That's asking a lot for a rookie, but his numbers last season were scary good. The only comparable catchers in the past 20 years, I think, are Joe Mauer and Mike Piazza, two of the best-hitting catchers ever. This guy could be historically good.

Boras clients rarely extend, but the free agency factor is a little different in Wieters's case, given the wear and tear of playing catcher.

If I were MacPhail, I'd try for a Longoria-like extension right away. The argument to Boras and Wieters would be that this gives the Orioles incentive to prolong his career by giving him more time at DH. Otherwise, he can catch 150 games a year.

If the O's really want to play hardball, they can keep Wieters in Norfolk all season and bring him up at the end of April 2010. That would give him 10 pro seasons as a catcher before he's eligible for free agency. Ouch.

I don't expect them to do that. In fact I don't expect them to be aggressive and foresighted enough to even think about a early extension, but it would probably be the smart move.

I predict that Mr. Wieters will join the Os on July 17, 2009; the first game after the all-star break. He'll play in the AAA International League All-Star game then join the big club. This keeps him under the 89 days to qualify for the "Super Two" exception. The fans get to see him in Baltimore, he gets to play in the Bigs, and Os get to keep him out of arbitration for 3 years. Something for everyone!!

Prediction:
AAA (April-July)
18 HRs
0.330 BA

MLB (July-Sept)
7 HRs
0.280 BA

Now, if I could only predict the lottery numbers!!! 7-8-18-20-37-39 :-D

BTW, I hate the Yankees!!

We need to maximize Weiter's service time so in my opinion he will not be included on the Opening Day roster. I look to see MW start the season at AAA, get some at bats, then start with the big club May/June.

The Rays didn't keep Longoria in the minors in '08 because of his arb clock. Well, they kind of did, but then in mid-April they signed him to a deal that could keep him in Tampa until 2016. So at that point the arbitration thing became a moot point and they called him up.

Triple A is where marginal players go to learn how to be bench players. Wieters will get nothing from the experience, pitchers in AAA think guys like Olsen (!) have something to teach them. I just hope he doesn't get injured in a meaningless game. Oh, if he starts in AAA he'll be there all year.

I predict the same path as Longoria took last year with very similar numbers to longoria. He needs to get to the majors early in the season to develop a major league style of catching and calling a game.
from May til end of Sept numbers will be:
288 avg 19 HR's 69 RBI's 35 runs
he will throw out 45% of runners

I think fans desperate for a savior, coupled with crazy production for a rookie catcher will lead to Wieters co-opting Clyde Frazier's "Jesus" moniker by the end of the season.

I predict that Matt Wieters will begin the year in AAA Norfolk. I believe he will be there for 3 months. I also think that the biggest jump in the minor leagues is from A ball to AA ball. If u can dominate at the AA level, then u should be able to play in the major leagues.