Based on just results, these are the top 10, though if you add potential for the majors, Tillman would be 2 and Hernandez #3 over Bergeson since he has better "stuff" than Bergeson. Only one additional pitcher for consideration. Where does Zach Clark fit into the O's picture, if at all? As a starter or reliever?

But there are some other good arms, with lots of upside, that were either hurt (Spoone, dare I add Penn?) or had bad years (Beato, Bascom, maybe even Renshaw) in A ball that could sneak up on these 10 next year. And then there is Matusz.

Lots of possibilities in this category, which is good since some will "flame out". As AM said, pitching is a numbers game since some will disappoint or get hurt, as we saw this year.

A consistent theme is the number of walks. Do these pitchers just need more work, or are there mechanics that need correcting? If it's mechanics, is there an organizational plan to teach these guys?

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RESPONSE FROM DEAN: Bill, I'm not sure I have a complete answer to your question. It's interesting to note that the pitchers with a lot of walks, for the most part, also had a lot of strikeouts (particularly Hernandez and Tilman). I don't think it's something that is cause for concern -- at least not yet -- because they still had success. I think more experience will help the pitchers to work out the kinks.

I think Tillman has to be #1 or #2 based upon his high ceiling and young age. That's no knock against Bergesen or Hernandez. Both of them had fine seasons and may be decent pitchers in the majors but Tillman is the guy that makes scouts and opposing managers drool, and the one you see listed as a possible future #1 or #2 in Baseball America and other scouting publications.

That's not to say they should rush him. For those who think he should be called up now, I ask you to please be patient. He is still very young and still working on mastering his pitches. He struggled in the Eastern League playoffs. A top pitching prospect is like a masterpiece - not to be rushed, and well worth the wait!!

Tillman is a 20-year pitcher in Double A with stats comparable to all of those above him. All of those above him are older, including Arrieta who pitched at a lower level. Tillman is pretty obviously the Orioles best pitching prospect, and it's not even close.

I can pretty much agree with your list Dean. I am really excited at the depth of our minor league pitching. Really looking forward to seein some of these guys in B-more in a couple of years. Also, some of them will probably be used to aquire a very good position player, hopefully one with some HR power.

Thanks for the detailed and excellent coverage throughout this series, Dean.

I don't disagree with your rankings. The lack of defensive depth - particularly middle infield -- has to be remedied by the Os to help these pitchers progress. I was appalling to go to Bowie this year to watch, Tillman pitch with Alex Cintron (a supposed Major Leaguer!) bumbling around behind him. As you point out...the lack of exciting position prospects is a concern. And I believe it has to be tied directly to your pitching development. I hope to see the defense improve dramatically to help these guys.

Don't really disagree with your listing Dean. Sure, there are a few pitchers here and there that I would move up or down a position or two; but all the right names appear to be there - minus one - what about Patton? Did you exclude him because he was injured and did not play last year? Also, some people still might slide Hayden Penn into the # 9 or 10 spot.

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RESPONSE FROM DEAN: Guy, you're right. I didn't include Troy Patton because he didn't pitch this year (same goes for Matusz -- he didn't pitch in the organization). As for Hayden Penn, he bewilders me and I don't think the statistics this year were worthy of being included in the top 10 performances by minor league starting pitchers. That's not to say he's not still in the top 10 for potential. It's just a matter of when the potential will be recognized.

Dean,

Although I did not see Zagone pitch, I did compare his stats to Cole McCurry - who also started for the Ironbirds. The stats are comparable for both. The one game I saw McCurry pitch, he looked like a MLB pitcher. Maybe you could add him as 10a.

Hopefully some these young guns take step up next year and help out the O's. Heaven knows the O's need the help and the opportunity is there.

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RESPONSE FROM DEAN: John in Conn, I agree with McCurry. He didn't pitch very well at Delmarva to begin the season, which is what hurt him in my list. Thanks for the insight and I agree that he pitched well in the couple times I watched him at Aberdeen.

I've got to be honest - I'm not sure what metric you're using in ranking the starting pitchers (or any other position for that matter).

Is this on their success/numbers for the year? On how they rank as a prospect?

If it's the former, you're always going to find the numbers favoring non-prospects who are too old for their league.

I mean, Chris Tillman is a legitimate top-25 (if not top-15) prospect in all of baseball - and you have him fourth.

The only prospect who MIGHT rank ahead of him is Matusz. Arrieta is likely right behind - but he's two years older pitching at a level lower. Bergesen - as good as his year was, really isn't even in the top 5-6.

Nearly any scout would tell you that Tillman, Matusz, Arrieta, Erbe (and probably Spoone) are all better prospects than Bergesen. As is Hernandez, though he may end up in the bullpen.

I appreciate the thoroughness and the attention - the O's minor league system is sorely lacking in that respect. But these posts need some overall consistency to really be informative. And craziness like ranking Bergesen and Hernandez over Tillman doesn't help.

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RESPONSE FROM DEAN: Lucky Jim, My apologies. I thought I had noted that I based the rankings primarily on this season's statistics with a little bit of consideration for their potential in the major leagues.

I agree that Tillman has a higher upside than Bergesen and Hernandez. Even based on my criteria, Tillman could easily be flipped with Hernandez because they had similar seasons. I still like Arrieta a lot and he shouldn't be penalized for being drafted later and playing at a lower level (Frederick) than Tillman (Bowie). We'll see how he does next year and then I can adjust accordingly.

Thanks again for taking the time to read the blog and comment. Also, I didn't include Matusz in the rankings because he didn't pitch in the Orioles' minor league system this year. Just an FYI.

Dean--Thanks saving the best for last. There is much here to put a smile on the face of all but the most pessimistic of Orioles. When you throw into the mix names like Hayden Penn, who may yet live up to his potential, and first-round draft pick, Brian Matusz (who actually may turn outto be the best prospect of them all!), there's quite a bit of reason for hope in the organization.

Speaking of Matusz, the O's will draft high again in 2009. Do you have any idea, Dean, as to whether the front office will be targeting a particular position then or opt for the best available athlete?

One other question: In your opinion, considering how slow the front office seems to be about bringing up prospects, what are the chances that the Orioles would consider signing an older, established pitcher such as Mike Mussina to give the team a veteran presence who can not only make quality starts and as someone help mentor the staff with his knowledge of pitching, but serve as a bridge until the club is ready to promote some of the future phenoms? It seems to me that between his intelligence and big game experience, signing Mussina would be like having another pitching coach.

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RESPONSE FROM DEAN: Ken, I think who the Orioles select with their pick all depends upon who is available and how things shake out between now and the draft.

I don't know about Mussina since it wasn't exactly a friendly goodbye last time, but I think they'll definitely look for veteran pitchers to bridge the gap until the younger prospects are ready.

Thanks for the great job. What's exciting is that there is lots of competition with the starting pitchers. Competition is good! I agree they need to sign a veteran that not only is a decent pitcher that will take us late into games, but also would be a great mentor. I read an articles in The Sporting News about Jim Palmer and how he mentored younger guys. I think Mussina would be perfect. Overpay if you have to.

Ken - I'd love to have Mussina back on the staff to help mentor the younger pitchers and to help fill the gaping void in the rotation. But I can't imagine Mussina would want to come back to Baltimore to fill that role on a rebuilding team. My bet is that if the Yankees don't want him back and he can't land with a contender he would call it quits. I think he's back in pinstripes again next year on a one year deal.

I think your list is alittle flawed like a previous poster had mentioned. I think you put too much weight on statistics (which you admit) rather than age vs. level, potential and plus pitches. No MLB scout would have placed Tillman at 4 (most would consider him no.1) and Bergesen / Hernandez would not have sniffed top 4 in most minor league publications. I must admit your column is a fun read, but beware statistics are not always true indicators when judging minorleaguers.

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RESPONSE FROM DEAN: Agreed on mostly everything. Thanks for the comments. They're always appreciated. I think Bergesen and Hernandez still could make an impact, but the important thing is that there were a lot of good individual performances by starting pitchers in the Orioles' minor league system in 2008.

Which of these guys has college experience? Will the Orioles establish a protocol for advancement requiring AAA before consideration (in most cases) for promotion to the show?

Who did the O's receive as the "player to be named later" in the Chad Bradford give-away to Tampa Bay?

What about Kam Mickolio? He came up briefly to the big club this season, but he was supposed to be another promising arm from the Erik Bedard trade.

Hey Dean, the future certainly looks bright for our minor league pitchers. I'm curious, how well did Butler do, the other pitcher in the Bedard trade? Who do you think will be cracking this top ten next year with the draft class of 2008?

This ranking of minor league players of the O's by position was a wonderful series! It is the first thing I have been reading when I go to Baltimoresun.com the last few weeks.

Next up: want to do a series with your predictions as to who is going to be on each of the O's minor league affilates on opening day 2009?

Jack -- I agree with you that the chances of Mussina coming back to Batimore are slim and...well, I won't say none, but pretty close to none. The only chance I could see is if they were abe to sign a big impact bat like Teixera, and get a couple of star (or near star) caliber players to go along with him, probably pitchers.

In other words, the only way Moose might consider signing with the Orioles would be if he thought he could win some games. At this point in his career he still has a few goals out there, if he wants to pursue them: 30 wins to reach 300 for his career, 187 Ks for 3000, another shot at a Cy Young Award, one more try at a World Championship ring, and more achievements to assure first ballot Hall of Fame election.

If he chooses to come back, there are plenty of teams out there prepared to pay him big bucks, no doubt about that. But that field will be narrowed to only teams that compete. The only hope the O's would have to sign him is if they first can get the reinforcements needed to make a Tampa Bay-style turnaround or something reasonably close to it within the realm of possiblity (despite what some naysayers mayargue, his team is close to being competitive) and to pay him more than anyone else.

Admittedly not very likely, but the Orioless need to get serious about puting a winning team on the field in 2009. It can be done, but there must be resolve from the font office to take some decisive steps.

Rebuilding is fine, but there needs to be progress in the here-and-now, not three years down the road. If O's fans are subjected to more of the same torture they've had over the past 11 years, then Peter Angelos can expect further dwindling attendance. Enough is enough.

Would probably switch 1 and 2. I do agree that Penn, Patton and Matusz need to be on the list, as they have a good chance of pitching for the O's next year.

Why do we have pitchers that seem to walk a bunch of guys? Even Guthrie walked nearly 60 batters this year. Obviously no one was nearly as bad as the failed Cabrera experiment with 90 walks but still.

When is Chris Tillman going to be ready to come up to the majors?

Glad I found your blog, Dean. I agree with others here in that I am very excited about the farm systems development. Class A Frederick were 2007 league champions and Class AA Bowie were 2008 standings leaders. I am excited to see if both AAA and AA can be highly competitive in 2009. If so, that bodes well for the O's timeline of being competitive starting in 2010.

Starting pitching was tremendous in the minors this past season. The best thing is that these young pitchers are becoming accustomed to winning.