First-round NCAA predictions
I like the field this year. No teams left out got totally robbed. Maybe Loyola has an argument but they had a couple of chances to state their case in close games against this field and did not. Bucknell and Colgate proved they could play with this field but not consistently. Georgetown had no chance after losing to Penn State. So here are my picks for the first round. Also, be sure to check out the Lacrosse Pool Contest at E-Lacrosse this week!
Villanova @ Virginia
I’ve seen a Villanova-type team beat a Virginia-type team. It was the Drexel at Virginia upset a few seasons ago. I don’t think I will ever see such an upset again, much less in the playoffs. Virginia is just too strong in this matchup. They are the legit No. 1 seed in my opinion. This one's a ten-point win.
Brown @ Johns Hopkins
Hopkins is a team with character, because of their failings. They have had to overcome all year long. And they are better than their record. Their losses are close ones to good teams. Close losses and close wins build character. They will need all of it to beat this Brown team, perhaps the best I’ve ever seen. Brown is coming off a loss to Princeton where they really never got out of the gate. They were embarrassed. Hopkins is coming off an emotional victory over a Loyola team they had beaten, and then let back in the door and had to go to overtime to close out. This is going to be a close game and I have no pick. They are even. Both would lose to Virginia in the second round.
Hofstra @ Cornell
These are two teams with chips on their shoulders. They want to be included among the top programs, but usually fall short. This will be the most fiercely contested game because both need respect, though the result doesn’t prove anything. Each of these teams needs to go to the final four to consider their seasons a success. I like Cornell by three.
UMass @ Princeton
Princeton is all that. I like this team. UMass will have to play better than they have all year to win and Princeton will have to crumble. But when’s the last time you saw a Bill Tierney team crumble? They will be prepared and know they belong in the final four. Princeton by six.
Navy @ Duke
The big upset potential in the first round is most likely right here. I like the matchup of Navy’s physical play and discipline against Duke’s strong offense. This will be a fun game to watch. I think Duke will pull it out but it may take overtime.
UMBC @ North Carolina
I like these teams equally. They are coached by two of my favorites in Joe Breschi and Don Zimmerman. This will be another great game and I really can’t pick the winner. Both can beat Duke or Navy in the next round. Another Duke-UNC game would be very interesting. But UMBC can be a final four team, too. They have the most exciting offense this year and the best keeper in the land in Jeremy Blevins.
Maryland @ Notre Dame
Because we don’t know enough about Notre Dame through comparative scores, you could sum up their chances against Maryland this way: If Irish transfer Will Yeatman would have been their best player this year, then they will lose to Maryland, because he’s not Maryland’s best player.
But if I know Kevin Corrigan teams well, they would insist that there are no stars on the Irish squad and that they use teamwork to do things that individuals cannot do. That may be enough to beat Maryland in South Bend. In the Terps’ games I’ve seen this year, cohesive offensive teamwork has been their shortcoming. Remember, I picked the Terps to be in the final four before the season. On paper they are still that good to me. Travis Reed is a wildcard they don’t play enough. I thought he would be the star of their offense this year. He’s done very well despite his more limited role, but I saw something different unfolding for the Terps this year with him in the middle of it all. I was wrong. I’ll take Notre Dame in a two-point game.
Siena @ Syracuse
This would be the largest upset in lacrosse history if Siena beat the Orange in the dome. Siena has a well-deserved sense of accomplishment just getting into the tournament and Syracuse would be devastated with a loss here. But it’s really about the players. If Siena was up 10 at the half, John Desko could pull every starter, put in a whole team of guys who haven’t played much this year and still win the game. The toughest contest Syracuse will play this week will be in practice against these same second-teamers. I’ll take Syracuse, a little to a lot.






Comments
UMBC has been flying under the radar all season. After several subpar games, it's time for them to get their second breath. Don Zimmerman is an elite coach.And his guys play their hearts out. Let's see if they are ready (finally) to step onto the big stage.
Posted by: Ed | May 4, 2009 8:47 AM
At least 10 potential champs this year. UMBC can beat Carolina IF they can win half their faceoffs. Hopkins can beat anyone, but can they win 4 in a row?
Virginia can win it all IF they don't have to play Duke ( same for Duke if they don't play JHU). Watch out for Syracuse.
Should be a good tourney.
Posted by: Laxxreff | May 4, 2009 9:35 AM
Lets go Md teams.
Posted by: J | May 4, 2009 5:02 PM
Notre Dame has no stars? Have you heard of Ryan Hoff? He is a POY candidate and he is a local kid, having gone to Dulaney.
Posted by: Bill | May 4, 2009 6:28 PM
UNC will beat UMBC because the Retrievers might not win a face-off. Sorry, but Duke has finally figured out their offense will roll Navy by 5. UVA will win, but have more trouble with 'Nova than you think. Hopkins by a goal because they are at home. The Terps have just been disappointing in the 2nd half of the season. Notre Dame will have the 'no respect' thing going for them and win big. All should be good to watch!
Posted by: John in Westminster | May 4, 2009 6:30 PM