It's time for NCAA tournament predictions.

We all have our ideas of who is in and who will be left out, so let's have all of your predictions before Sunday when we all have to reshuffle and predict who will win using the actual brackets.

Hofstra really hurt its chances by losing to Villanova in the Colonial Athletic Association semifinal.

The field for the NCAA tournament is tight, and I think UMass, Hofstra, Maryland and Georgetown are all bubble teams now.

If Notre Dame or UMBC do not win their tournaments, more than one of the teams above will not get in.

Here's my prediction for the pairings if Notre Dame wins the Great Western Lacrosse League tournament, UMBC wins the America East title and Towson is victorious in the CAA:

(1) Syracuse vs. Siena
(8) Johns Hopkins vs. UMBC

(7) UNC vs. Navy
(2) Duke vs. Towson/Villanova

If Notre Dame and/or UMBC loses this weekend, then Maryland -- or maybe even Hofstra, Loyola or UMass -- also will be out. UMBC and Notre Dame are going to be in the tournament even with a loss in their conference tourneys. Loyola would be in with a win over Johns Hopkins, regardless of how UMass does against Rutgers.

You can join the prediction discussion on The Baltimore Sun's lacrosse forum.

Posted by John Weaver at 3:24 PM | Permalink | Comments (10)
        

Last Sunday, Ryland Huyghue became the first African-American coach in the history of college lacrosse to win a league championship.

Huyghue’s Cal State Fullerton team won the Southwestern Lacrosse Conference Division II title last week. The 49ers beat UC Irvine in the semifinals, 16-6, and then topped Cal State Long Beach, 10-7, in the final.

The Titans will now go to Denver to compete for the MCLA Div II national championship.

When asked about the achievement, Huyghue said, "It's a milestone just to be in the national championship."

Congratulations to Huyghue and the 13-3 Titans.

Posted by John Weaver at 6:52 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
        

Two local teams go after automatic bids to the NCAA tournament this week and that means you have the opportunity to see great lacrosse games Wednesday night at either Towson or UMBC.

The second-seeded Tigers will face Drexel at 7:30 p.m. at Johnny Unitas Stadium in the Colonial Athletic Conference semifinal while the top-seeded Retrievers will take on Binghamton in the America East Conference semifinal at UMBC at the same time.

The winner of the Towson-Drexel semifinal will advance to play the winner of the Hofstra-Villanova semifinal in the CAA championship game Saturday at the highest remaining seed. If Towson wins its semifinal, it would host Villanova or travel to Hofstra for the title game, depending on the outcome of the other semifinal.

UMBC will host the conference championship game on Saturday if they prevail Wednesday night.

Towson needs to win two straight to earn an NCAA tournament bid. After watching them against Johns Hopkins last week, there is no doubt that they can do that if they play well.

UMBC has likely already locked up an NCAA tournament spot. I suppose if they lost to Binghamton in the semis they might be on the wrong side of the bubble, but with a semifinal win and a loss on Saturday, I still think they are in, along with the conference tournament winner.

UMBC beat Maryland on March 14 and should edge out the Terps for the last at-large bid, even if they lose in the conference final. The Terps should be rooting for UMBC to run the AEC table like their season depends on it, because it probably does.

Posted by John Weaver at 9:18 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
        

Like I predicted, No. 13 Brown (underrated) beat No. 2 Cornell (overrated).

Now the Bears face Princeton and they could win that one, too, although I think the Tigers will come out on top.

Princeton is a contender in my eyes. But I won’t be stunned to see Brown in the Final Four either.

All three Ivy teams deserve to make the tournament. How perfect for a New England setting. Any other outcome would be a travesty.

Posted by John Weaver at 10:18 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
        

I just sat down to watch the ACC final between Virginia and Maryland. The only problem is that, not having paid attention to Friday night’s results, I missed that both teams had lost.

That’s right, North Carolina finally won an ACC contest when it counted! They beat the Terps 16-10 after losing 21 straight games against ACC teams and 16 straight ACC tournament games.

The last time UNC made the final was in 1996. Congratulations Joe Breschi. Duke defied all odds and beat the Virginia Cavaliers for the seventh straight time. That’s amazing to me.

The Blue Devils have had two coaches throughout that period so it’s not that some coach has another coach’s number. In my estimation, only twice in those seven games has Duke actually been the better team.

I would love to see Virginia have to beat Duke this year to win an NCAA championship.

Posted by John Weaver at 10:17 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
        

Notre Dame (12-0) is getting no respect as an undefeated team in college lacrosse. They have one game remaining during the regular season -- against Ohio State on Saturday -- yet they are only ranked fourth in the USILA coaches' poll and No. 6 in LaxPower's computer ratings.

The only meaningful wins on Notre Dame's schedule, in my opinion, are a one-point victory over Loyola in February and a two-point victory over North Carolina in early March. The Fighting Irish also beat Denver by two goals on the road, 10-8. They just don’t have the schedule strength to get any higher than No. 4. Notre Dame will be lucky to be a top seed in the tournament. I think they'll drop to No. 5 or No. 6 when the committee meets.

As of right now, I would rank the top four teams as Virginia, Princeton, Syracuse and Cornell. When Brown beats Cornell or Princeton, I will substitute Notre Dame at No. 4, but the committee won’t do the same.

Posted by John Weaver at 4:26 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
        

Princeton punished

It’s a good thing Bill Tierney and the kids who buy into his program and mindset don’t care about polls, because they were punished badly in the USILA rankings for losing to Ivy rival Cornell. The same fickle tide of opinion that knocked them down four pegs on Monday, put them atop the poll after Virginia lost their only game of the season to a good Duke team. Virginia never left the top spot, in my opinion. Princeton has lost to Hofstra and Cornell but they’ve beaten Johns Hopkins, Syracuse and UMBC. Cornell lost 14-10 at Virginia and 15-10 at Syracuse. They had no wins against strong teams before they beat overrated No. 1 Princeton. Even with the Cornell win, I think Princeton deserves a top four position and Cornell would be around No. 6 on my poll. LaxPower has them No. 1. I can’t figure out why.

Don’t be down on Brown

No. 13 Brown closes its season with the toughest Ivy opponents, Princeton and Cornell. Brown may look like the 13th team in the nation because the Bears lost to No. 9 Hofstra and were upset by Penn, but if they win just one of the next two games they will be hard to ignore for a tournament bid.

Posted by John Weaver at 2:54 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
        

Syracuse attackman cleared

Cody Jamieson has cleared the NCAA scrutiny of his junior college records and is free to play for the rest of this season and next season with the Syracuse Orange. Jamieson was a star for the last two years at Onondaga Community College, along with Syracuse defender Sid Smith (2006) He led the junior college program to two undefeated seasons and two national titles. While at OCC, Jamieson scored 237 points. He’s the left-handed attackman Syracuse really needs to become dangerous for the playoffs. If he’s ready and playing well, he makes Syracuse a different team in the postseason than we’ve been seeing. Cody and Sid also starred for the silver-medal winning Iroquois national indoor team at the World Indoor Lacrosse Championship in 2007. Sid might be the fastest person I’ve ever seen on a lacrosse floor.

An off year for Towson

People have long written off Towson this season, but after what I saw last night against Hopkins in a double-overtime loss, I think the Tigers are just as likely to win the CAA as Hofstra, the No. 1 seed, and I would not want to be the top team that gets to play them in the first round of the NCAAs if they do take the auto-bid.

Posted by John Weaver at 2:52 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
        

John,

Thank you for your input!
Kathy

Kathy,

It’s the player’s fault if the stick is illegal, although for a youngster, the coach and parent should help the player get it right.

A kid that has any question about his pockets' legality should just take it to a coach to check. The check is easy, and they all know how to do it. They see it ten times a game.

Also, any referee will help a player with checking the legality before a game, and there is no penalty for an illegal stick if you take it to them before the game starts. Most pockets can be fixed in a minute or two, so the player can still play with it if he checks early enough and has time to tighten it.

I say tighten it, because that’s the big infraction -- a pocket that’s too deep. A stick can be short, but that’s rare. All shafts are sold legal. A player would have to purposely cut the shaft to come up short in a stick check.

As to the seriousness of the offense, it’s a three-minute non-releasable penalty. That’s a big deal if the game is close. A team can score a bunch of goals in that much time. It’s a serious thing, and the coach usually has some harsh words for offenders.

I saw a Johns Hopkins player win a faceoff a few years ago, and then he could not dislodge the ball from his stick. He was called for the penalty and as he came to the sideline, Blue Jays coach Dave Pietramala grabbed the stick out of his hands. As he yelled at the player along the sideline, he smashed the stick against the fence behind the bench. Pietramala was definitely serious.

Hope that helps!
John

Posted by John Weaver at 4:35 PM | Permalink | Comments (4)
        

The Tewaaraton Foundation announced the 2009 men’s and women’s finalists for the Tewaaraton trophy today. One female and one male nominee below will win the ninth annual Tewaaraton Award at a ceremony in Washington, D.C. on May 28.

On the women’s side, my limited knowledge has me favoring Hannah Nielsen or Hilary Bowen from Northwestern, while my local connection has me rooting for two Maryland girls -- Sarah Mollison and Caitlyn McFadden. I think Duke’s Caroline Cryer will win the award next year, if she doesn't grab it this time around.

For the men, it’s not as clear as it usually is.

Could it be the year for a goalie to get the top accolade in lacrosse? UMBC's Jeremy Blevins or Brown's Jordan Burke have to be considered.

Could Zach Greer win it as a graduate student with Bryant after losing it to Mike Leveille in 2008? Princeton might get some serious consideration with two strong candidates in Mark Kovler and Jack McBride.

The players' success between now and the final voting date will matter, and many of the candidates will determine the 2009 fates of their teams over that span. I expect to see a lot of the Virginia, Syracuse and Princeton kids, but a player like North Carolina’s Billy Bitter might have to put up some big numbers in the ACC tournament to be remembered when it's time to vote.

I noticed that Maryland, Johns Hopkins and Navy didn't have any nominees. Navy can usually be a great team without a star player, so their exclusion is not as surprising to me. Players at Johns Hopkins and Maryland, however, should have stepped up to take these nominations for their strong programs and did not.

If these nominations are any indicator, the NCAA men's lacrosse Final Four this year will be Virginia (four), Syracuse (two), Princeton (two) and Cornell (two).

I like the chances for Cornell's Max Seibald or Virginia's Danny Glading right now. My final five would be those two players, Burke, Bitter and Greer. Virginia's Garrett Billings, Duke's Ned Crotty, Kovler or Syracuse's Kenny Nims could sneak into the picture instead of Bitter or Burke.

Women's finalists:

Hilary Bowen, Northwestern
Sarah Bullard, Duke
Jillian Byers, Notre Dame
Caroline Cryer, Duke
Sarah Dalton, Boston University
Carolyn Davis, Duke
Ali DeLuca, Penn
Sarah Downing, Vanderbilt
Amber Falcone, North Carolina
Molly Ford, Georgetown
Kelly Hagerty, Ohio State
Karri Ellen Johnson, Maryland
Ashby Kaestner, Georgetown
Morgan Lathrop, Northwestern
Caitlyn McFadden, Maryland
Holly McGarvie, Princeton
Sarah Mollison, Maryland
Hannah Nielsen, Northwestern
Rachel Ray, Adelphi
Katie Rowan, Syracuse
Jenn Russell, North Carolina
Emma Spiro, Penn
Erin Tochihara, Princeton
Julie Wadland, Dartmouth
Blair Weymouth, Virginia

Men's finalists:

Matt Abbott, Syracuse
Garrett Billings, Virginia
Billy Bitter, North Carolina
Jeremy Blevins, UMBC
Shamel Bratton, Virginia
Jordan Burke, Brown
Jay Card, Hofstra
Brandon Corp, Colgate
Ned Crotty, Duke
Danny Glading, Virginia
John Glynn, Cornell
Zack Greer, Bryant
Dan Hardy, Syracuse
Shane Koppens, Loyola
Mark Kovler, Princeton
Jack McBride, Princeton
Kenny Nims, Syracuse
Scott Rodgers, Notre Dame
Doc Schneider, Massachusetts
Max Seibald, Cornell
Michael Timms, Virginia

Posted by John Weaver at 4:15 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
        

Maryland high school boys lacrosse teams are back in the spotlight this year.

Led by St. Mary’s, Gilman and Calvert Hall -- the top three teams in the country according to LaxPower -- the area looks more like the top hotbed in high school lacrosse once again after a couple years of less-than-dominant status.

Boys Latin is listed at No. 6 after two New York teams -- West Islip and Skaneateles -- and Georgetown Prep is listed seventh, even after an 8-3 loss to No. 44 Delbarton (N.J.) last weekend. The Little Hoyas have played 13 games, with only that loss and a 9-6 defeat against No. 2 Gilman.

Here is a link to the LaxPower national rankings for high school boys lacrosse.

Remember, this is done by a formula, so Gilman is ranked behind St. Mary's despite beating them a couple weeks ago. In my opinion, Gilman is No. 1. I thought they were last year, too. I can’t wait to see Calvert Hall play, but I have not had an opportunity to watch the Cardinals this season.

With the No. 8 and No. 9 teams -- Conestoga and Academy New Church -- Pennsylvania has a strong showing in the national rankings. Long Island (N.Y) powerhouse Shoreham-Wading River rounds out the top ten in the list.

That’s the good news.

The bad news is Maryland doesn’t have another team ranked in the top 45 teams in the nation. St.Paul’s is listed at No. 46, Loyola is 48th and Landon is 65th. McDonogh ranks 68th on the list, followed by Calverton at No. 70 and the first public school from the state -- Severna Park -- at No. 76. South River is at No. 80 and Mt. St. Joseph comes in at No. 120.

I think the data is harder to analyze as you move farther down the list. For example, my alma-mater Dulaney, whom I haven't seen play this year, is ranked 433rd in the nation.

Balderdash!

I’ll take bets against the 100 teams in front my Lions on the list. Dulaney isn’t alone, however.

Connecticut’s New Canaan is incorrectly ranked at No. 415, and Severn (10-3) is better than No. 296. I’ll take them over Loyola Academy (Ill.), who is 4-3, at No. 118. I watched Loyola Academy lose to Georgetown Prep, 12-1, and can tell you, they would not fare well against Severn. I’d like to see a Severn vs. Georgetown Prep matchup. That would be a game.

So, you can see that the source is flawed, but it’s still great to see Maryland teams at the top again.

Current LaxPower Top 10

1. St Mary's 7-1
2. Gilman 6-0
3. Calvert Hall 6-1
4. West Islip (N.Y.) 5-0
5. Skaneateles (N.Y.) 2-0
6. Boys' Latin 8-1
7. Georgetown Prep 11-2
8. Conestoga (Pa.) 8-0
9. Academy New Church (Pa.) 4-2
10. Shoreham-Wading River (N.Y.) 2-0

Posted by John Weaver at 11:09 AM | Permalink | Comments (4)
        

The Virginia Cavaliers keep winning big games by one goal. They won at Syracuse 13-12, early in the season, and then at Johns Hopkins 16-15 a month later. They hosted Maryland in the record-setting 7-overtime game, winning 10-9. U.Va. came back to beat a North Carolina team desperate for an ACC win at the Meadowlands, 11-10. The only really good team that this Virginia squad beat by a bigger spread was Cornell, in Charlottesville, 14-10. Of course they’ve achieved extended margins against many second-tier teams on their schedule, such as Drexel, Bryant, Stony Brook, Mount St. Mary’s, VMI and Vermont, not to mention a big 10-2 win over struggling Towson.

So do 1-goal wins provide more evidence of a team always teetering on the brink of a loss, or do they show a team that has the composure to win the close games? Well both, really. Certainly Virginia has the confidence now to know it can win in overtime or in a close game. But the Cavaliers also have proven that they can get into close games after running out to a great lead. Hopkins and Syracuse were way down but U.Va. just could not close the door. In my opinion, the U.Va. defense betrays the offense and the offense bails the defense out in the last minute.

Cornell proved in that 4-point loss that the short-stick defenders for Virginia could be beaten and that Ken Clausen, Virginia’s flashy star defender, will take too many risks to make the big play. Hopkins, Syracuse and North Carolina each attacked that weakness in the Virginia defense to a great degree of success. But each of those teams could not defend against the nation’s best attack and the individual star efforts of the Virginia midfielders.

The other key to all of the 1-goal wins for Virginia has been the stellar fourth-quarter play of goalkeeper Adam Ghitelman. He has literally saved each game. Whatever else happened in these exciting contests, Ghitelman was really the difference. When great goalie play determines victories, it can mean a team is flying by the seat of their pants.But it can also be the difference in the tournament between early exit and a title.

It’s interesting that Cornell is even on the schedule this year. The Cavs used to play Princeton yearly, but this year they played Cornell instead. It’s only interesting because it is Princeton that would give Virginia fits this year, with a super-disciplined and selfless defense and a run-and-gun open-style offense that could trouble the Virginia defenders easily in my opinion. We will likely get to see that matchup later on though, as both teams should reach the Final Four.

I think there is one great advantage Virginia has over the other contenders this year: the Cavaliers have glaring issues at defense and are still undefeated. Their problems can be overcome before they have a chance to be embarrassed against Princeton. Virginia’s best defender is actually Mike Timms. Timms has consistently taken a great offensive player out of the game entirely while also having to back up in instances of Clausen’s failed heroics. If Clausen bought into a team-defense approach, this team would be unstoppable and win these close ones by wide margins.

Dom Starsia enjoys employing specialists on the field. He likes to use different personnel on offense on defense at midfield. That’s supposed to mean that the best athletes are always on the field, but when a top opposing middie is matched up against a Max Pomper or John Haldy, for example, the troubles are just starting. Once one of them is beaten, Clausen overextends and the others on defense have to make up for that. With more discipline and the best athletes on defensive midfield, Virginia would be one of the great teams of all time and likely remain undefeated through the postseason.

Virginia might run the table anyway. It’s not like they didn’t get the top recruits for the last few years. They have massive amounts of talent rusting on the bench. Virginia is easily the deepest team in the nation and they play fewer personnel than most. You either start at U.Va. or you rot on the vine. The investment into some players is immense while others are like unwanted stepchildren. It’s been that way at U.Va. since the days of Ace Adams, who could have won many championships with the talent he recruited and subsequently squandered.

These are sure signs of over-recruiting, which any coach would do if he had star blue-chippers lined up to ride the bench for him. Virginia has always had that luxury. It’s the No. 1 dream-destination college for lacrosse because it has such a great balance of lacrosse, education, social life and big-time sports campus experiences with basketball and football programs in the ACC. And over-recruiting is a misnomer. I’m not saying Dom Starsia doesn’t recruit, but he doesn’t have to. I figure the most repetitive task in a Virginia lacrosse recruiter’s day is sending the gentle blow-off e-mail or just saying “no” generally.

The Cavs will face Duke and Dartmouth and then they are into the ACC and NCAA tournaments as the No. 1 seed in both. So they’ll see North Carolina again soon. Virginia, as they are now, has a chance to be one of those amazing undefeated championship teams, but they will stumble up onto that pedestal at this rate. More evident to me is what a waste it would be for this team to lose just one of those 1-goal games, when it matters, and not fulfill what is assumed to be their destiny.

Posted by John Weaver at 3:26 PM | Permalink | Comments (2)
        

I think that both games in the Meadowlands will be upsets if you consider Princeton beating Syracuse and North Carolina beating Virginia upsets. Carolina will eventually break out of their abominable ACC losing streak and Virginia is due for a loss in my book. They will likely win the NCAA championship this year but will not go undefeated. There’s too much parity.

And they’ve narrowly beaten some great teams. If Virginia goes into the title game undefeated against Syracuse, Princeton or Hopkins, I think they will lose the game. With a loss, they win. Just the way I feel on great teams like Virginia, that aren’t quite the caliber of the undefeated teams we’ve had over the years in lacrosse.

Princeton is better than people think. They will be in contention this year and could upset Syracuse now or later down the road. I like the matchup for the Tigers. I like Mark Kovler’s lefty shot. Always have and he is a big boy now with some muscle on that shot. It opens up their potent offense and they shoot a lot, which is further evidence of the coaching genius of Bill Tierney -- to create something out of what he has instead of molding a team to "his way." I like this Princeton team more than most of the recent teams. It might just be the style they play.

So the best part of picking big upsets is that if it doesn’t work out, I don’t look too bad and if it does, I’m a genius. Both should be great games whether I’m right or not.

Posted by John Weaver at 11:54 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
        

If you recorded last week's Maryland-Virginia overtime thriller on a digital video recorder, it was just as long as every lacrosse game -- two hours.

That is because TiVo and other digital video recorders allow for a two-hour time slot for lacrosse games.

When is the last time a lacrosse game was exactly two hours long? I'd say never.

Most people who use these devices have figured out that you need to record the game and the next program in order to catch the end of any game that has penalties and timeouts.

The Johns Hopkins-Virginia matchup last week was cut off with 11 minutes to play in the fourth quarter and the score tied at 15. For better or worse, the audience was left to imagine how bad Hopkins had to choke in order to score no points over the final stretch of the game while allowing Virginia the one goal needed to win, after a high-scoring game up to the point when my TiVo stopped.

Now, I am sure that fans of other sports experience the same thing.

I do, when it comes to basketball.

I also believe the technology TiVo has at its fingertips could easily monitor when a show was actually finished -- instead of when the television schedule said it would be over -- and keep recording our games when they go long.

They just haven’t done this. It’s my pet peeve of the year.

Additionally, I missed the end of the Syracuse-Loyola clash this weekend, in which the local team almost knocked off the NCAA defending champion. Loyola was up 12-9 with 7:26 left when TiVo became disinterested.

TiVo is certainly not a fan of college lacrosse.

If I lived in the TiVo world, however, all three games would have been won or tied by the local team when the recording stopped. Of course, the games finished after the recording and the area schools lost all of them in exciting finishes -- or at least that’s what we were told.

Posted by John Weaver at 6:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (3)