Hofstra's loss is no gain for Loyola, Maryland
If anything, the No. 10 Pride’s shocking 9-7 loss Wednesday night to a Villanova squad that Hofstra had whipped, 10-3, just five days ago has narrowed the possibility of both the No. 13 Terps and the No. 18 Greyhounds making the 16-team NCAA tournament.
Despite the setback in the Colonial Athletic Association tournament semifinal, the Pride are 11-3, have a Rating Percentage Index of five, and boast quality wins against No. 5 Brown, No. 7 Princeton and No. 17 Massachusetts.
So in addition to either Towson or Villanova getting the automatic qualifier for winning the CAA tournament championship Saturday night, Hofstra is virtually assured of an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament. That means that either Maryland or Loyola will not get one of the remaining eight at-large cards.
The Terps and Greyhounds present interesting cases for an invitation. Loyola’s RPI of nine is superior to Maryland’s RPI of 14, and the Greyhounds (9-4) have no bad losses on their resume, dropping one-goal decisions to No. 1 Syracuse and No. 3 Notre Dame and two-goal contests to No. 2 Duke and Massachusetts.
The Terps (8-6) have lost four of their last six games, but they have two quality wins against Duke and No. 8 North Carolina. The Blue Devils have a RPI of two, while the Tar Heels have a RPI of eight.
"I think what we’ve learned about the NCAA tournament selection committee is that those big wins don’t weigh in as much, but I think they might this year because Loyola doesn’t have any of those big wins," ESPN analyst and former Johns Hopkins midfielder Mark Dixon said. "Hofstra losing, I think they’re in as an at-large. I think that definitely dealt a blow to Maryland’s chances, but also Loyola’s. So I think they’re both at risk."
The silver lining for the Greyhounds is that they still have two scenarios to earn a spot. If Massachusetts loses to Rutgers Saturday, the Eastern College Athletic Conference title and the league’s automatic qualifier would go to Loyola. Or if the Greyhounds upset No. 9 Johns Hopkins Saturday, that quality win might be enough to impress the selection committee.
"Loyola has a chance to get that big win and strengthen its RPI with a win over Hopkins," Dixon said. "Whereas Maryland is supposed to beat Yale [Saturday’s opponent], and if they do, they’re still in the running, but it’s not going to help them.
"If [the Greyhounds] beat Hopkins, they’re in as an at-large," he continued. "If they don’t, it’s going to be a very anxious Sunday for Loyola."
