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May 30, 2008

NASCAR's Patrick Carpentier On THE Hardcore Fantasy Show

We've started getting into fantasy NASCAR over the last month and now we get into it in a big way as Patrick Carpentier, formerly of Champ Car and Indy Racing, now of NASCAR, joins us on THE Hardcore Fantasy Show this Saturday @ 12:00 PM ET.

Carpentier.jpg

Also joining myself and Corey Erdman (Hockey News) will be Christopher Harris from ESPN.com to break down some fantasy baseball and breakdown the Best Buy 400.

Don't forget about the Euro 2008 pool, where you can win a $300 set of soccer cleats.

As always, 1-888-9-HARDCORE or thefantasyshow@hardcoresportsradio.com. If you don't have a Sirius subscription, you can listen online at hardcoresportsradio.com.

O's vs. Red Sox preview: May 30-June 2

It’s always a good thing to win two out of three games, particularly when you’re facing the New York Yankees. But will the Orioles be able to complete a sweep against the Bronx Bombers this season?

The Orioles have won the first two games against the Yankees at Camden Yards on two different occasions already in 2008, but they have lost the third game both times.

After an emotional victory against the Yankees on Tuesday night, the Orioles failed to win the series finale on Wednesday. They lost to the Yankees, 4-2, despite another strong performance from starting pitcher Jeremy Guthrie. On April 20, the Orioles lost, 7-1, after beating the Yankees in the first two games of the weekend series.

Now they’ll turn their attention to a four-game series against the Boston Red Sox. The Orioles were able to win both games against the Red Sox earlier this month at Camden Yards. Those two games are the only meetings so far in 2008 between the two clubs.

The Red Sox come to Baltimore after losing five out of six games on the West Coast against the Oakland Athletics and Seattle Mariners. Former Oriole Erik Bedard struck out eight Boston hitters and allowed only two hits in seven innings for the Mariners in a 1-0 victory on Wednesday.

Pitching matchups

Friday 5/30: Daniel Cabrera (5-1, 3.70) vs. Josh Beckett (5-4, 4.43)
Saturday 5/31: Garrett Olson (4-1, 4.09) vs. Jon Lester (3-3, 3.55)
Sunday 6/1: Brian Burres (4-4, 3.16) vs. Bartolo Colon (2-0, 2.25)
Monday 6/2: Jeremy Guthrie (2-6, 3.64) vs. TBA

Who you should play from the Red Sox

Manny Ramirez, LF – It’s obvious that Ramirez should be starting for your fantasy team, but you should also be aware of the milestone that the veteran outfielder is about to surpass. Ramirez only needs one more home run to become the 24th player in major league history to hit 500 home runs. In 182 career games against the Orioles, Ramirez is hitting .313 with 31 home runs and 145 RBIs. Today happens to be Ramirez’s 36th birthday. Is there a better birthday gift than a historic home run?

Who you should bench from the Red Sox

Daisuke Matsuzaka, RHP – It’s not clear at this time whether Matsuzaka will pitch as scheduled on Monday against the Orioles. However, it might be a good idea to leave him out of your lineup even if he makes the start. The 27-year-old starter is 0-1 with an 8.38 ERA in two career starts against the Orioles. Add this to the fact that he likely won’t be pitching at full strength and it’s probably a good idea to give him a rest.

Who you should play from the Orioles

Luke Scott, LF – Scott performed well against the Red Sox in the two-game series earlier this month at Camden Yards. On May 13, Scott was 3-for-4, including a three-run home run against Red Sox starting pitcher Josh Beckett. With Beckett starting tonight, it’s a good idea to at least have Scott activated for tonight’s game. It also might be a good idea to start him on Sunday and Monday, but he should probably be benched tomorrow with left-handed pitcher Jon Lester starting.

Who you should bench from the Orioles

Brian Roberts, 2B – Earlier this season, Roberts was 3-for-7 with a double and three runs scored against the Red Sox. But Roberts’ career batting average against Boston is only .236 in 83 games. He’s been starting to heat up recently – 5-for-10 in the past two games – but it’s hard to tell if that means he’s ready to go on a tear. Roberts has been inconsistent so far this season, so it is difficult to predict how he’ll perform against the Red Sox. You should probably have him in your starting lineup this weekend, but be aware that he might struggle.

May 29, 2008

Euro 2008 Pool

It's time for the Euro 2008 pool -- don't make a fool of yourself like Chris Brass:

Here's how the Euro 2008 pool works, courtesy of THE Hardcore Fantasy Show:

First of all, you must select one team from each group for a total of four teams. For every win by the team you selected, you will get three points. For every tie, you will get one point.

For example, if you select Turkey in Group C, you will get three points for each game they win and one point for each game they tie. There are no points awarded for a loss.

Secondly, after selecting four teams from each group, you may pick one additional team that you haven't picked from any of the groups known as the Double Point Team.

For example, you can choose Switzerland even though you already might have chosen Czech Republic from Group A. Points will be awarded for this team in a similar fashion as in Rule No. 1, except that you will get double the points. So you will get twice the points for a Switzerland win or tie than you would if you had selected them as one of your first four teams.

At the end of this step, you will have a total of five teams selected.

Next, pick three players. Players get you two points for a goal.

Lastly, pick the winner, which earns you 12 points if you get it right.

If you win, you get a pair of these Nomis Football Boots, which are roughly $300 U.S.

Here is their interesting ad:

So in total:

Four teams from each group
One double-points team
One Euro 2008 winner
Three players

Send entries to thefantasyshow@hardcoresportsradio.com

My fantasy lineup -- this week's transactions

I'm currently participating in a 12-team mixed league with 11 members of Hardcore Country.

The scoring system is 5x5 roto with one DL spot. Each week I'll list my rosters, the moves I made and a brief update on what I'm thinking with some of the players.

Currently, I'm in sixth place.

1. Added: Ramon Vazquez, 2B, SS, 3B (TEX):

Rafael Furcal experienced a setback with his back problem, which meant that I needed a shortstop a little while longer. Clint Barmes was an outstanding pickup/fill-in for me but he got hurt. Vazquez has impressive numbers this year, but I have no long-term faith in him. I only need a short-term solution as Furcal will return shortly.

1. Dropped: Clint Barmes, 2B, SS (COL):

Clint Barmes was an excellent fill-in option for at shortstop until he landed on the disabled list with a knee sprain. It is debatable whether he'll get back in the everyday rotation when he gets back. The Rockies' top prospect, Ian Stewart, is now playing at second base and Troy Tulowitzki should return around the time of the All-Star break.

2. Added: Justin Duchscherer, SP (OAK)

I've been trying to fill my last pitcher spot for a while (see: Tom Gorzelanny, Andy Sonnanstine, Randy Wolf, Vicente Padilla, Johnny Cueto) and after Justin Duchscherer's stellar outing against the Boston Red Sox (8 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 4 K), I filled that void. Duchscherer was dropped in my league after someone reached for Eric Gagne after I dropped him. In fairness, that owner desperately needs saves and because of that, I added a quality starting pitcher that I will be comfortable with the rest of the year.

2. Dropped: Tim Redding, SP (WAS):

He didn't even get an audition with my team -- I dropped him before he even started one game. But Christopher Harris of ESPN.com broke down Tim Redding for us on THE Hardcore Fantasy Show last week and discussed some sabermetrics stats that indicated that Redding wouldn't keep up his stellar start. Lo and behold, Redding's next outing: 5.2 IP, 10 H, 5 ER.

3. Dan Wheeler, RP (TB)

I watched Troy Percival collapse on the mound when his hamstring gave out, and the first thing that came to my mind was to add Dan Wheeler. Wheeler will step into the closer's role while Percival works out his hamstring problem. It is called "tightness" for now, but given his age (38), even minor injuries could land him on the DL. If it is serious, Wheeler has serious potential as the closer of a first-place team.

3. Ramon Vazquez, 2B, SS, 3B (TEX):

The chance to add a potential closer has more value than a one-week shortstop fill-in. I'll go without a shortstop for a couple of series simply based on Wheeler's potential.

Thinking About:

Gavin Floyd, SP (CHW):

I don't really need anymore starting pitching, but in my books, you can never have enough pitchers. Gavin Floyd was just dropped for Mark Hendrickson, and my first though was that Floyd came off a rough start. But that is not the case, Floyd has been steady all year long. He has five wins, an ERA of 3.22 and a WHIP of 1.10. His strikeout to walk ratio (32:27) is so-so, but it has improved in May (17:12 vs 15:15 in April). The question is just whether he can keep it up and continue his career-year.

Missed:

Clayton Kershaw, SP (LA):

Clayton Kershaw is a highly-touted pitcher in the Los Angeles Dodgers organization who made his Major League debut last Sunday. He allowed only two runs in six innings of work, and if you watched the game, better defense probably could have prevented those runs. He also struck out seven hitters and walked only one. He has ace potential, which is why when I tried to add him, someone with a higher waiver-wire priority snapped him up.

Current Lineup:

C - Dioner Navarro (TB)
1B - Albert Pujols (STL)
2B - Dustin Pedroia (BOS)
3B - Alex Gordon (KC)
SS - Rafael Furcal (LAD)
OF - Curtis Granderson (DET)
OF - Carl Crawford (TB)
OF - Jose Guillen (KC)
UTIL - Conor Jackson (ARI)
BN - Milton Bradley (TEX)
BN - Jorge Posada (NYY) - Still on the DL but getting close to returning

SP - Erik Bedard (SEA) - Finally a good start (7 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 8 K)
SP - Matt Garza (TB)
RP - Francisco Cordero (CIN)
P - Jose Valverde (HOU)
P - Dan Haren (ARZ)
P - Ervin Santana (LAA)
BN - Brett Myers (PHI) - Sitting him on the road, starting him at home
BN - Joe Borowski (CLE)
BN - Matt Cain (SF)
BN - Justin Duchscherer (OAK)
BN - Dan Wheeler (TB)

May 28, 2008

Ex-Orioles roundup: Conine trains for triathlon; Latest news on Benson

Here’s an update on former Orioles:

Jeff Conine
Played in Baltimore from 1999-2003, 2006

Conine retired from professional baseball before the beginning of this season, but that doesn’t mean he’s sitting back and relaxing.

According to an article in the Orlando Sentinel, the 41-year-old Conine has started training for the 2008 Ford Ironman World Championship triathlon on Oct. 11 in Hawaii. The article has a few interesting quotes from the 17-year veteran. He says his goal is to cross the finish line at the triathlon under his own power.

While the article says he doesn’t plan to pursue a career on the pro triathlon circuit, Conine hopes to remain involved in competitive sports.

“I will always be doing something competitive, even if I have to pick a different sport each year. Competition will always be part of my life,” Conine told the newspaper.

Eric Byrnes
Played in Baltimore in 2005

Last time we checked in on Byrnes, he was hitting .293 with three home runs and 14 RBIs through 20 games.

However, he’s been struggling at the plate recently. In 78 at-bats this month, Byrnes is hitting .154. He only has one double in May after hitting 10 in April.

His batting average has plummeted to .219 and he only has four stolen bases in 2008 after establishing a career high of 50 stolen bases last season.

It looks like Byrnes’ struggles can be attributed to a hamstring injury that the 32-year-old outfielder suffered before the start of spring training. According to the article on MLB.com, Byrnes originally tweaked his hamstring while running sprints with Arizona Diamondbacks teammate Chris Young.

The article says that Byrnes played through the pain by arriving at the ballpark six hours before each game to receive treatment. The Diamondbacks finally decided to place him on the 15-day disabled list yesterday.

Byrnes says he expects to be ready in 15 days, but it’s unclear how long the injury will actually keep him sidelined.

Erik Bedard
Played in Baltimore from 2002-2007

There’s an interesting article from the Seattle Post-Intelligencer that chronicles the struggles of the Seattle Mariners so far in 2008. The article includes a brief piece about Bedard and how his ERA has jumped from 1.82 on May 2 to 4.70.

Bedard allowed six runs in two innings against the Texas Rangers on May 12. Following a solid performance against the San Diego Padres (two runs allowed in eight innings) in his next start, he surrendered nine runs in 4 1/3 innings against the New York Yankees on May 23.

In May, Bedard is 1-3 with a 6.35 ERA. He’s scheduled to pitch tonight against the Boston Red Sox.

Miguel Tejada
Played in Baltimore from 2004-2007

Tejada hit his sixth home run of the season last night as the Houston Astros defeated the St. Louis Cardinals, 8-2.

In 53 games this season, Tejada is hitting .332 with 37 RBIs. He has 16 doubles and 43 runs scored. Tejada has committed five errors so far this season.

Jack Cust
Played in Baltimore from 2003-2004

Last week, the San Francisco Chronicle had a nice story about Cust’s journey to the major leagues.

After the Oakland Athletics took a chance on him last season, Cust had a breakout performance with 26 home runs and 82 RBIs. However, as the article states, he slumped at the beginning of this season and people wondered if last year was a fluke.

Cust currently leads the American League in walks (40) and he ranks second in on-base percentage (.418). He leads the Athletics in runs scored (28) and home runs (eight).

Kris Benson
Played in Baltimore in 2006

Do you remember how Benson was working out for several teams during the offseason in an attempt to make a comeback following the shoulder surgery that caused him to miss the 2007 season? What happened to him?

After a couple setbacks, the Philadelphia Daily News says that he’s finally ready to make a start in the minor leagues. According to the article, Benson threw 75 pitches in an extended spring training game recently and will make his first start for Class A Clearwater on Sunday.

The article also states that Benson’s original deal with the Phillies permitted him to opt out of the contract on June 1, which is – you guessed it – Sunday. The writer wasn’t able to contact Benson’s agent, Gregg Clifton, but it’s believed that Benson will remain with the Phillies at this time.

Todd Williams
Played in Baltimore from 2004-2007

Williams recently signed with the Long Island Ducks of the independent Atlantic League.

The 37-year-old reliever has allowed two runs (one earned) in 3 2/3 innings since joining the team last week. He’s walked three hitters and struck out two.

Williams has also thrown one wild pitch. There’s no word on whether the wild pitch occurred during an intentional walk.

May 26, 2008

Pitcher 6-Pack

Justin Duchscherer, SP (OAK):

I didn't think that I would have write about a former All-Star as a waiver-wire pick up, but I nabbed him in my league after I noticed he was a free agent. Justin Duchscherer stepped into the fantasy spotlight with an eight-inning, one-hit effort against the Boston Red Sox, the best hitting team in the American League. But realistically, Duchscherer should have been owned even before that. He has an ERA of 1.99 in May with 22 strikeouts and seven walks. With a WHIP under 1.00 and a nice strikeout-to-walk ratio, the numbers indicate that he'll continue pitching well enough to be owned in almost every league.

Dana Eveland, SP (OAK):

Dana Eveland was the jewel of the Oakland Athletics' side of the Dan Haren trade and production has been quite similar this season. But while Haren was drafted about 50th overall, Eveland is still on most waiver-wires even though his stats are nearly identical.

Haren: 10 GS, 63.2 IP, 5-3, 53 K, 10 BB, 3.39 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, .228 BAA
Eveland: 10 GS, 62 IP, 4-3, 44 K, 24 BB, 2.90 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, .218 BAA

Eveland is a little behind in some of the categories but again, consider the investment: one guy was drafted with an early pick whereas the other is a free agent. Haren has the brand name power, but the production from both pitchers is solid.

Taylor Buchholz, RP (COL):

Taylor Buchholz isn't a guy you should be adding quite yet, but he should be on your radar. Considering the way he's pitched so far this season, the Colorado Rockies might want to consider giving him some more responsibility. Buchholz has closer potential and with Manny Corpas blowing his way out of the role and Brian Fuentes in the process of doing the same, Buchholz could become the new closer. He's only allowed 14 hits in 28.1 innings pitched, allowing only four earned runs in that time. Fuentes blew his third save opportunity on Wednesday and that was his third in only seven chances since taking over the role. He's no longer dominant, which might open the door for Buchholz shortly.

Darrell Rasner, SP (NYY):

This is a guy that I'm not terribly excited about, but he's been doing yeoman's work for the New York Yankees right now. Regardless of whether he's this year's Aaron Small, Darrell Rasner has now pitched 25 innings in four starts, allowing a total of five earned runs. He's only walked three hitters in that time and keeping runners off base is a healthy indication of potential future success. Pitching for the Yankees typically leads to wins so if that's what you are looking for, Rasner should be a good option. In four starts, he already has three wins. Andy Pettitte, who's owned in 84% of ESPN leagues, only has four wins.

Mike Gonzalez/Rafael Soriano, RP (ATL):

The back end of the Atlanta Braves bullpen has been a mess due to injuries, but some capable bodies are on the way. Mike Gonzalez, who is rehabbing Tommy John surgery, worked in back-to-back games at extended spring training and might be back early June. Rafael Soriano, who has been out with right elbow tendinitis, pitched a couple of decent innings in Class AA and could be back any time now. Both guys are capable of closing, although it might be a committee when everyone is healthy. John Smoltz was supposed to be the chairman of that committee, but an inflamed biceps tendon and rotator cuff inflammation has kept him out. You might be able to snake some saves with Soriano or Gonzalez in the interim until Smoltz returns, so monitor the situation.

Clayton Kershaw, SP (LAD):

Let's get hyped up again for another Major League prospect as Clayton Kershaw is Max Scherzer II this year. Kershaw was recently called up and pitched six innings, striking out seven batters while allowing only two earned runs. The proposition is this: do you add a guy with crazy upside who might be inconsistent? The answer is yes. If you have some veteran pitcher who is just giving you regular steady numbers, it is worth it to drop that type of player for Kershaw's potential. Why? Because the worst case scenario is that Kershaw flops and you go back to the waiver-wire and get another steady veteran. Those guys are a dime-a-dozen. Potential studs like Kershaw are not.

May 25, 2008

O's vs. Yankees preview: May 26-28

It’s almost humorous how things change from one week to the next in the major leagues.

A week ago, the Orioles had an off day before heading into New York to play three games against the Yankees. The Orioles had won seven of their past nine games and the Yankees had lost five out of six.

This week, the Orioles will host the Yankees for three games. The two teams are currently headed in opposite directions. The Orioles have dropped below .500 (24-25) after five consecutive losses and the Yankees are on a five-game winning streak, including the final two games of last week’s series against the Orioles.

Over the weekend, New York scored 31 runs in a three-game sweep against the Seattle Mariners. Former Oriole Erik Bedard pitched for Seattle on Friday night and allowed nine runs in 4 1/3 innings. He suffered the loss as the Yankees won, 13-2.

After scoring 12 runs last Tuesday in New York, the Orioles have only scored nine runs in their past five games. It’s pretty obvious that they’ll need to score more runs in order to end the losing streak, but it won’t be easy against the resurgent Yankees.

Pitching matchups

Monday 5/26: Garrett Olson (3-1, 5.19) vs. Darrell Rasner (3-0, 1.89)
Tuesday 5/27: Brian Burres (4-4, 3.16) vs. Ian Kennedy (0-3, 7.27)
Wednesday 5/28: Jeremy Guthrie (2-5, 3.62) vs. Andy Pettitte (4-5, 4.27)

Who you should play from the Yankees

Andy Pettitte, LHP – In his career, Pettitte is 23-6 with a 3.77 ERA in 35 games (33 starts) against the Orioles. He pitched seven scoreless innings at Camden Yards on April 20 and the Yankees beat the Orioles, 7-1. Pettitte is only 4-5 with a 4.27 ERA this season, but there’s a pretty good chance he’ll pitch well on Wednesday. Make sure he is activated for the start if you’ve got him on your fantasy team.

Who you should bench from the Yankees

Derek Jeter, SS – Unless you have another solid option at shortstop, you probably shouldn’t sit Jeter under any circumstances. He only has two hits in his past 21 at-bats, so it might be a good time to give him a break if you have someone else to carry the load. In 190 career games against the Orioles, Jeter has a .315 batting average with 21 home runs and 101 RBIs. However, he is 4-for-22 against the Orioles this season. Jeter is arguably one of the best clutch hitters in the major leagues, so you should never count him out. Just make sure you know that he hasn’t been hitting well lately.

Who you should play from the Orioles

Brian Roberts, 2B – Let’s go with Roberts in this spot because he’s got the highest batting average (.263) of any of the regulars. OK, so it’s not exactly an impressive average for fantasy purposes. He’s hitting .286 with 71 runs scored and 30 stolen bases in 101 career games against the Yankees. Forget the fact that he is 2-for-21 against New York this season. Call it a hunch, but I think Roberts will have a solid series.

Who you should bench from the Orioles

Nick Markakis, RF – Markakis is clearly struggling at the plate right now. It’s getting to the point where fantasy owners should begin exploring other options until he begins hitting again. Markakis is 3-for-24 in his past six games. His batting average has dropped to .247 and he has only six extra-base hits in May – two doubles and four home runs. Markakis typically hits well against the Yankees – .312 batting average in 41 games – but I wouldn’t count on him at this point. Don’t panic, but be aware of his struggles.

May 23, 2008

O's vs. Rays preview: May 23-25

After dropping the last two games of their three-game series against the New York Yankees, the Orioles head to Tampa Bay for three games against the Rays.

The Orioles will look to Jeremy Guthrie to get the team heading back in the right direction after last night’s 2-1 loss, but the bigger issue is whether the offense will show up in Tampa Bay.

The Orioles scored 12 runs in Tuesday’s victory, but they managed only one run over the final two games of the series. The team is currently ranked 25th in the major leagues with a .248 batting average. They rank 25th in on-base percentage (.317), 22nd in slugging percentage (.386) and 28th in hits (386).

Tampa Bay is currently 27-20 and in second place in the American League East. They had consecutive one-run victories in the first two games of their series with the Oakland Athletics before losing yesterday’s game, 9-1.

The Rays are 16-8 at Tropicana Field this season. They have beaten the Orioles in five of eight games this season.

Pitching matchups

Friday 5/23: Jeremy Guthrie (2-4, 3.86) vs. Matt Garza (2-1, 4.86)
Saturday 5/24: Steve Trachsel (2-4, 6.75) vs. Edwin Jackson (2-3, 3.29)
Sunday 5/25: Daniel Cabrera (5-1, 3.48) vs. James Shields (4-3, 3.38)

Who you should play from the Rays

Cliff Floyd, DH – Since coming off the disabled list in early May, Floyd is 7-for-27 with no home runs. However, he should be in your lineup against the Orioles this weekend because it’s only a matter of time before he starts going deep again. Floyd was 2-for-7 with a home run and three RBIs during the first series of the year in Baltimore. In 23 career games against the Orioles, Floyd is hitting .364 with six home runs and 23 RBIs.

Who you should bench from the Rays

Eric Hinske, OF – Hinske was hitting .293 with five home runs and 14 RBIs when the Orioles hosted the Rays on May 1. Since then, he has only two home runs and six RBIs and his batting average has dropped to .254. With Gabe Gross playing well, Hinske could see a reduced role in the offense if he continues to struggle. If you’ve got Hinske on your fantasy team, be sure to keep an eye on him in the next several days.

Who you should play from the Orioles

Daniel Cabrera, RHP – It’s tough to find anyone worth playing offensively for the Orioles at this point in the season, so let’s go with their hottest pitcher. Cabrera is slotted to start Sunday’s game, so make sure he’s in your fantasy lineup. The big right-hander, who turns 27 on Tuesday, hasn’t walked anyone in his past two starts. He’s pitched at least seven innings in all four starts this month. In his career, Cabrera is 6-0 with a 3.43 ERA in 13 starts against the Rays.

Who you should bench from the Orioles

Melvin Mora, 3B – Whether Mora is healthy or not, he shouldn’t be starting for your fantasy team this week. Mora has only four hits in 30 at-bats against the Rays this season. In 121 career games against Tampa Bay, Mora is hitting .246. He does have 24 career home runs against the Rays – easily the most by Mora against any team – but recent history shows that he likely won’t be hitting any home runs this weekend, especially if his hand is still bothering him.

May 22, 2008

My fantasy lineup -- this week's transactions

I'm currently participating in a 12-team mixed league with 11 members of Hardcore Country.

The scoring system is 5x5 roto with one DL spot. Each week I'll list my rosters, the moves I made and a brief update on what I'm thinking with some of the players.

Currently, I'm in sixth place.

Transactions:

1. Added: Clint Barmes 2B, SS (COL):

I've been playing without a shortstop for a little while since Rafael Furcal landed on the disabled list, and with Eric Gagne getting knocked around yet again, then complaining of shoulder problems, I figured now was as good a time as any to address this situation. Clint Barmes has been outstanding so far this season. He's hitting .391 with 3 HR, 9 RBI, 7 R and 2 SB in May. He's only a short-term solution, but that's what I need with Furcal coming off the DL shortly.

1. Dropped: Eric Gagne, RP (MIL):

This guy has quickly become the bane of my existence in my fantasy league. He'll get saves down the road - I guarantee it - but I'm tired of the headache. Getting Joe Borowski back - hopefully soon - also factored into this decision.

2. Added: Jermaine Dye, OF (CHW):

Jeremy Hermida provides runs and RBIs, but not power and steals. Jermaine Dye just offers more across the board and he is pretty hot right now. Dye has six home runs this month with 11 RBIs and 14 runs. That's pretty solid.

2. Dropped: Jeremy Hermida, OF (FLA):

I've had Jeremy Hermida a couple of times this year, but his average has dropped nearly 40 points over the last week or so. Outfield isn't a big need, but I felt that Dye offered more than Hermida's contributions.

3. Added: Jose Guillen, OF (KC):

I might be splitting hairs here, but I picked Jose Guillen over Jermaine Dye to be my third/fourth outfielder. Guillen has 34 RBIs and 21 runs and is batting .318 this month. He's the eighth most valuable outfielder over the last week. I like that he's hitting cleanup for the Royals and I'm going to keep him while he's hot.

3. Dropped: Jermaine Dye, OF (CHW):

Dye has been outstanding this month, but I like Guillen's RBIs. The key difference for me was the batters in front of these guys. Guillen has a few decent guys from 1-3, including a good lead-off hitter. Dye isn't producing as many runs simply because the White Sox have been without a legitimate lead-off hitter since Scott Podsednik. If the rumored Chone Figgins deal works out and he moves to the top of the White Sox order, my opinion might change.

4. Added: Tim Redding, SP (WAS):

Over the last month, Tim Redding has been the 35th-best pitcher in my league, which means he'll probably get rocked in his next start now that I own him. But seriously, his ERA is 3.10, his WHIP is 1.16, he has six wins (on a team that only has 20 total) and he has a respectable 36 strikeouts. Welcome aboard!

4. Dropped: Tom Gorzelanny, SP (PIT):

A bad start by Tom Gorzelanny turned me off. He allowed seven earned runs and four home runs, which is a very bad indication. I just want someone steady with upside and he's not that guy for me.

5. Added: Dioner Navarro (TB):

I'm just looking for a fill-in while Jorge Posada is mending on the DL, but apparently Chris Iannetta isn't willing to oblige. Dioner Navarro has been the fifth-most valuable catcher in my league over the last month. In that span, he's hitting .368 with 15 RBIs and 11 runs. That's what I'm talking about. This is the best stretch of his career, so there is risk involved, but I'm hoping he can tide me over until Posada returns.

5. Dropped: Chris Iannetta, C (COL)

Only two hits in his last 17 at-bats earned him a pink slip off of my team. The truth is that I had much higher hopes, but he's just not being productive right now. And the problem is that the worse he struggles at the plate, the more Yorvit Torrealba will work his way back into the time-share.

Current Lineup:

C - Dioner Navarro (TB)
1B - Albert Pujols (STL)
2B - Dustin Pedroia (BOS)
3B - Alex Gordon (KC)
SS - Rafael Furcal (LAD)
OF - Curtis Granderson (DET)
OF - Carl Crawford (TB)
OF - Jose Guillen (KC)
UTIL - Conor Jackson (ARI)
BN - Milton Bradley (TEX)

SP - Erik Bedard (SEA)
SP - Matt Garza (TB)
RP - Francisco Cordero (CIN)
P - Jose Valverde (HOU)
P - Dan Haren (ARZ)
P - Ervin Santana (LAA)
BN - Brett Myers (PHI)
BN - Joe Borowski (CLE)
BN - Matt Cain (SF)
BN - Tim Redding (WAS)

May 21, 2008

Pitcher 6-Pack

Andy Sonnanstine, SP (TB):

Time to get on the Tampa Bay Rays bandwagon - even if Andy Sonnanstine got lit up today. I've seen a lot of people add Sonnanstine even though he has an ERA over 5.00. If I had the choice, I'd probably go for the next guy on the list even though Sonnanstine's six wins are sexy. He's inconsistent, but when he's on, he's definitely worth owning. Don't reach for wins if the guy is trashing your other categories - Sonnanstine is on the borderline, but a little too inconsistent to keep around.

Matt Garza, SP (TB):

Matt Garza is another Rays pitcher who was knocked up in his last start, but he's still worth picking up in deep leagues. Even after allowing six earned runs in 4.1 innings pitched in his last outing, Garza still has an ERA of 3.38 and a WHIP of 1.33 in May. He also has two wins. If the Rays keep winning, their pitchers are going to have more value than the general public perceives and Garza could be a good source for wins.

Todd Wellemeyer, SP (STL):

Tood Wellemeyer has come out of nowhere to be a stellar fantasy starter - one that nearly 20% of fantasy owners haven't noticed yet. He's 5-1 on the season with an ERA of 3.25 ERA and a 49:22 K:BB ratio. His numbers are even better in May - he's allowed only five earned runs in 24 innings pitched this month. St. Louis Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan is known as a magician - not like Michael Cuddyer - and he's helped several supposed scrubs overachieve in the past. Wellemeyer looks to be the next on that list.

John Lannan, SP (WAS):

John Lannan is a borderline waiver-wire guy that has some hidden value. Take a look:

Home: 14 IP (3 starts), 11 ER, 2 HR, 10 BB, 5 K, 7.07 ERA, 2.07 WHIP, ,322 BAA
Away: 39 IP (6 starts), 9 ER, 2 HR, 9 BB, 29 K, 2.08 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, .252 BAA

If you are only counting his road starts, Lannan is probably - roughly speaking - a top 50 pitcher. Add him and start him on the road - clearly, he doesn't like his team's new stadium.

Tim Redding, SP (WAS):

Here's another Nationals pitcher that is growing on me. Tim Redding has allowed more than three runs in only two of his 10 starts. Better yet, he's only allowed one earned run in his last 12.1 innings pitched. His strikeout-to-walk ratio (36:22) is respectable and his WHIP (1.16) is excellent. Redding has six wins for a team that has only won 20 games - that speaks volumes to me. One caveat is that all but two of his starts have come at home, though he has been decent in those starts.

Vicente Padilla, SP (TEX):

Over the last month, Vicente Padilla has an ERA of 3.19 over 36.2 innings pitched. He has four wins over that span with a tidy WHIP of 1.28. Yeah, I know what you're thinking. He's Vicente Padilla, he's never pitched this well for a season and he pitches in a park that very few pitchers have success. The Rangers are shopping him right now so this might not last, but ride it out while it does.

May 20, 2008

O's vs. Yankees preview: May 20-22

The Orioles begin a three-game series with the New York Yankees tonight at Yankee Stadium. At this point in the season, the two teams seem to be heading in opposite directions.

Although many people picked the Orioles to finish with one of the worst records in the major leagues, the team has continued to exceed expectations and currently sits in third place in the American League East with a 23-20 record.

On the other hand, the Yankees are 20-24 and in last place in the division. They have lost five of their past six games, including a two-game sweep by the New York Mets over the weekend. The Mets outscored the Yankees, 18-6, in the series.

The Bronx Bombers have only scored in double digits one time this season – a 15-9 victory over the Boston Red Sox on April 16. They are tied with the Orioles for 11th in the American League in runs scored (179).

However, their offense should receive a boost with the return of third baseman Alex Rodriguez tonight. Rodriguez is set to return to the lineup after missing almost three weeks with a strained right quadriceps.

Pitching matchups

Tuesday 5/20: Daniel Cabrera (4-1, 3.58) vs. Mike Mussina (6-3, 3.99)
Wednesday 5/21: Garrett Olson (3-0, 3.47) vs. Darrell Rasner (2-0, 3.00)
Thursday 5/22: Brian Burres (4-4, 3.47) vs. Ian Kennedy (0-3, 8.48)

Who you should play from the Yankees

Alex Rodriguez, 3B – Is there really anyone else that should be in this spot? When he’s healthy, Rodriguez is one of the best hitters in baseball. It’s important to activate him immediately if you’ve got him on your fantasy team. In his career, Rodriguez has a .311 batting average, 42 home runs and 135 RBIs in 154 games against the Orioles.

Who you should bench from the Yankees

Johnny Damon, OF – Damon is hitting .250 with five home runs and 17 RBIs in 2008. He leads the team in runs scored (28) and stolen bases (five). However, he’s been struggling offensively in May. Damon is hitting .207 with two home runs, five RBIs and nine runs scored in 14 games this month. He is 3-for-30 in his past seven games. In his career, Damon is 4-for-24 (.167) against Daniel Cabrera and 1-for-7 against Brian Burres. He’s never faced Garrett Olson. If he’s on your fantasy team, sit Damon on your bench until he starts hitting again.

Who you should play from the Orioles

Nick Markakis, RF – In 17 career games at Yankee Stadium, Markakis is hitting .304 with three home runs and 14 RBIs. He is 4-for-12 with two doubles against Mike Mussina in his career, but the best matchup for Markakis in this series is Darrell Rasner, who starts tomorrow night’s game. Markakis is 5-for-5 lifetime against Rasner. The 24-year-old right fielder is only hitting .217 in May, but it won’t be long before he gets hot again.

Who you should bench from the Orioles

Aubrey Huff, DH – In the first month of the season, Huff had five home runs and 19 RBIs. He did an excellent job of making fans forget about his offseason comments. However, Huff is only hitting .238 with one home run and four RBIs in May. After scoring 15 runs in April, Huff has only scored six this month. It might be good idea to put him on your bench and only use him in certain matchups for now.

RE: My Fantasy Lineup & Question

Question courtesy of Those Fantasy Guys reader Jeff:

Another great idea. I think I am going to start doing this on my blog, perhaps on the weekly links section where I will start including links to what you guys have each week. Good stuff.

Question for you: Which of the following struggling hitters do you think is most likely to turn it around and be big the rest of the way:

Andruw Jones, Brad Hawpe, Travis Hafner, Paul Konerko. I own all of them (gulp). Thanks.

Answer: I'm done with Travis Hafner, especially since I'm in a roto league. Consider the fact that he might have a good month somewhere down the road, but the reality is that if I plug someone in from now until that time, it will make up for anything crazy he does.

But to that point, I think he's done as a top-tier fantasy contributor. This "slump" has lasted more than a year and I'm done dealing with it. Never mind the average - a lot of batters struggle out of the gates and can't hit anything - but he only has four home runs. A complete power outage.

The same can be said for Andruw Jones. I have even less faith in him for two reasons:

1. Last year was a contract year and if an athlete can't show up for a pay day, then something is definitely wrong.

2. He just got paid so there is less reason for him to be working hard to correct his mistakes.

I'd also add that he's competing with a number of capable bodies in the outfield and he can easily be the odd man out the rest of the way.

I like Brad Hawpe, and I was remiss that I didn't add him when I had the chance, but now he's back on the waiver-wire and I'm debating between him, Jermaine Dye and Jose Guillen.

He is in a 5-for-36 slump, but the whole Colorado Rockies team is out of sync right now. I think he'll get hot and turn it around.

If I'm not adding Hawpe, I'd add Paul Konerko. Like the Rockies, the Chicago White Sox are struggling. But both teams are in hitter's parks so you know they'll come around when it gets warm.

Why I like Konerko is the fact that he went through a two-month slump to start the season last year, but after May, he averaged six home runs, 16 RBIs and 12 runs per month the rest of the way.

I'm done with Hafner and Jones, but I do like Hawpe and Konerko to turn it around.

May 16, 2008

O's vs. Nationals preview: May 16-18

After losing five consecutive games against the Los Angeles Angels and Oakland Athletics last week, the Orioles have won five of their past six.

Now they’ll face their ultimate rival.

No, I’m not talking about the Washington Nationals, who come to Camden Yards for three games beginning tonight.

I’m talking about interleague play.

According to Roch Kubatko’s story in today’s Sun, the Orioles are 79-114 since the beginning of interleague play in 1997. That’s the worst record among American League teams and second only to the Pittsburgh Pirates (57-94) in the major leagues.

The Orioles have exceeded expectations so far this season, but will they be able to conquer their interleague past?

The Nationals are 18-24 this season. Jason Bergmann allowed three hits in seven shutout innings as the Nationals defeated the New York Mets yesterday, 1-0. After being swept at home by the Florida Marlins last week, the Nationals took three out of four games from the Mets at Shea Stadium.

Pitching matchups

Friday 5/16: Garrett Olson (2-0, 2.95) vs. Shawn Hill (0-0, 3.56)
Saturday 5/17: Brian Burres (3-4, 3.59) vs. Odalis Perez (1-3, 3.71)
Sunday 5/18: Jeremy Guthrie (2-3, 4.18) vs. John Lannan (3-3, 3.40)

Who you should play from the Nationals

Cristian Guzman, SS – Guzman has been a pleasant surprise for the Nationals so far this season. The 30-year-old shortstop is hitting .295 with three home runs, 18 RBIs and 27 runs scored. Although he was only 3-for-17 in the four-game series against the Mets, Guzman provides fantasy owners with a solid option that should be relatively inexpensive to obtain.

Who you should bench from the Nationals

Austin Kearns, RF – Like Guzman, Kearns could be a cheap option for a lot of fantasy owners. Unfortunately, he’s struggled so far in 2008. Kearns is only hitting .192 with three home runs and 16 RBIs. He had four multi-hit games in the first week of May, but he is 2-for-29 in his past eight games. Keep an eye on Kearns for later in the season, but he doesn’t belong on your fantasy team at this point.

Who you should play from the Orioles

Kevin Millar, 1B – Want a first baseman for this weekend’s games that is almost certainly available in your league? Pick Millar up and put him in your lineup against the Nationals. In 140 interleague games, Millar is hitting .300 with 10 home runs and 66 RBIs. Although he was 1-for-7 in the two games against the Boston Red Sox, Millar has six RBIs in the past seven games.

Who you should bench from the Orioles

Luke Scott, LF – Although he hit a three-run home run against the Red Sox on Tuesday night, Scott should be seeing less time in your fantasy lineup. Scott is 7-for-30 in May, including the three hits he had on Tuesday night. He is 5-for-19 with a solo home run in seven career games against the Nationals.

May 15, 2008

My fantasy lineup -- this week's transactions

Thanks to Jeff for the nice comments. If there are any readers that want to get involved, don't hesitate. Although I'm the writer and you're the reader, I view this blog as a general fantasy discussion. Send me your advice (pickups, sleepers, drops) and feel free to ask for mine.

I'm currently participating in a 12-team mixed league with 11 members of Hardcore Country.

The scoring system is 5x5 roto with one DL spot. Each week I'll list my rosters, the moves I made and a brief update on what I'm thinking with some of the players.

Currently, I'm in fourth place.

Transactions:

1. Added: Milton Bradley, OF (TEX):

So Mike Cameron clearly isn't the answer for me - yet. With Curtis Granderson struggling, I needed help in the outfield and Milton Bradley was my guy. He gets on base a lot and is in an excellent situation in Texas. I wrote him up in my position player six-pack, so I don't need to add much more here.

1. Dropped: Eric Gagne, RP (MIL):

Personally, I don't care too much about Eric Gagne's blown saves, or ERA, or WHIP. In the grand scheme of things, the amount of innings that he pitches in comparison to my starters, his lofty digits in the other categories won't hurt me that much. But at this point, he was pulled from the role and I had to make a move.

2. Added: Jeremy Hermida, OF (FLA):

Jeremy Hermida is solid, but not spectacular in 5x5 leagues. The average (.298) runs (20) and RBIs (19) are sexy, but he has mediocre power (four home runs) and he doesn't steal bases. He's solid and I just wanted a positive influence for my outfield. I'm tired of Mike Cameron's negative impact on my team.

2. Dropped: Mike Cameron, OF (MIL):

Mike Cameron's average has plummeted from .269 to .190 over his last nine games. In that span, he has three RBIs, two runs and one stolen base. This isn't what I signed up for. Tony Gwynn Jr. is now stealing some of his playing time, which indicates that the Brewers are looking for other solutions. If they are, so should I.

3. Added: Tom Gorzelanny, SP (PIT):

Tom Gorzelanny has had a brutal start to the season but part of the problem has been dealing with back spasms. He's been tossed aside like Ashlee Simpson albums and I figured I'd take a chance after he produced two quality outings. He's allowed only two earned runs in his last 12.1 innings pitched. He doesn't strike out a lot of hitters but I remember the guy who won 14 games with an ERA of 3.88 and a WHIP of 1.40 last year and I'm banking on him doing something similar from here on out.

3. Dropped: Randy Wolf, SP (SD):

Thanks for nothing Randy Wolf. I picked him up after he did 6 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 9 K, 3 BB in Philadelphia, thinking that he was underrated because of two bad outings. But his 3.57 ERA has ballooned to 5.16 in his last two starts. He's given up 12 ER in his last 10 innings pitched. Both starts were on the road but I didn't like seeing nine walks and only three strikeouts in that span.

4. Added: Eric Gagne, RP (MIL):

I picked Eric Gagne back up after he found his way back into the closing role. I didn't expect him to get back so quickly, but the potential saves he can provide are valuable. As mentioned above, I don't really care about Gagne's high ERA and WHIP simply because he doesn't pitch enough innings to have a serious impact on those categories for me. I need Gagne for saves and he has 10 already. That's only one less than Jonathan Papelbon and Mariano Rivera.

4. Dropped: Travis Hafner, DH (CLE):

I have cut the cord. In one of the most shocking moves in my pool, I have dropped Travis Hafner. He's picked up his batting average (.278 over his last seven games), but he only has one RBI over his last nine games. I'm done with this guy. Regardless of whether you think he's a steroid candidate or not, the bottom line is that he struggled for a year and a half now. I also have Conor Jackson as my UTIL fill-in, so I'm hoping he keeps it up.

5. Added: Matt Garza, SP (TB):

Matt Garza is a nice little sleeper who just might get to double-digit wins. Since coming off the DL, he's allowed only three earned runs in 19.2 IP, lowering his ERA from 7.62 to 3.86. He doesn't strike out a lot of hitters, but he doesn't walk many either. Best of all, he has two wins in his last three starts. I like Garza to be a sneaky source for wins.

5. Dropped: Johnny Cueto (CIN):

Some people say that Johnny Cueto is a young pitcher and you should be patient. They point out that his WHIP (1.25) is respectable for a guy with an ERA of 5.61. But the bottom line is that he doesn't bring much to the table in a 5x5 league outside of strikeouts. He's the pitcher's version of Adam Dunn - if he isn't striking batters out they are hitting home runs off of him. I'll wait until he settles down.

Thinking About:

Barry Zito, SP (SF):

I have been monitoring Barry Zito and I have to say that I'm getting a little tempted. Since the Giants told him to leave the rotation and go stand in a corner for a little bit, Zito has returned with a couple of decent outings. He's allowed five earned runs in his last 11 innings pitched with seven strikeouts and only three walks. Don't forget, the guy rebuilt his delivery in the offseason so maybe we should be a little more understanding about his early season struggles. I'm not close to adding him yet, but he is somebody I am monitoring.

C - Chris Iannetta (COL)
1B - Albert Pujols (STL)
2B - Dustin Pedroia (BOS)
3B - Alex Gordon (KC)
SS - Rafael Furcal (LAD) - A little concerned with his back problems
OF - Curtis Granderson (DET) - Finally out of a terrible cold spell
OF - Carl Crawford (TB)
OF - Jeremy Hermida (FLA)
UTIL - Conor Jackson (ARI)
BN - Milton Bradley (TEX)

SP - Erik Bedard (SEA)
SP - Matt Garza (TB)
RP - Francisco Cordero (CIN)
RP - Eric Gagne (MIL)
P - Jose Valverde (H