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Baseball preview: Seattle Mariners

After finishing in second place in the AL West behind the Los Angeles Angels, the Seattle Mariners decided that an upgrade in their starting rotation was needed.

First, the Mariners signed right-handed pitcher Carlos Silva to a four-year, $48 million contract in December. Then, as everyone in Baltimore already knows, they made an even bigger splash by trading five players, including reliever George Sherrill and outfielder Adam Jones, to the Orioles for left-handed pitcher Erik Bedard.

Bedard will combine with Felix Hernandez to give the Mariners one of the best starting duos in the major leagues. Silva gives Seattle a veteran pitcher who will throw around 200 innings per season. Although he won’t pick up many strikeouts, Silva has mediocre value because he will win 10-15 games for the Mariners in 2008.

The Mariners allowed more runs (813) last season than they scored (794). By adding Bedard and Silva, Seattle hopes it’ll be able to reduce the amount of runs allowed. In order to surpass the Angels as the top team in the AL West, Seattle needs to give up 50-100 fewer runs than it did in 2007.

Seattle Mariners

2007 record: 88-74 (2nd in AL West)

Key additions: LHP Erik Bedard, RHP Carlos Silva, RF Brad Wilkerson

Key losses: RF Jose Guillen, LHP George Sherrill, OF Adam Jones, 1B Ben Broussard

Most valuable fantasy performers:

1. Erik Bedard, LHP – Last season, Bedard emerged as one of the best starting pitchers in the majors by going 13-5 with a 3.16 ERA before an oblique injury forced him to miss the last five weeks. He’ll have another good year, especially since he doesn’t have to pitch in the AL East this season. However, Bedard won’t reach maximum value until he throws over 200 innings in a season. Draft him in the second or third round and hope that he finally reaches that mark in 2008. He could win 20 games in Seattle this season.

2. Ichiro Suzuki, CF – It’s good to grab Ichiro if you’re looking for someone to hit for a high batting average and pick up 35-45 stolen bases. He won’t hit more than 10 home runs, but Ichiro will score 110-115 runs. In his seven-year career in the major leagues, Ichiro has scored exactly 111 runs on four different occasions. Talk about a level of consistency. Unless you’re focusing on power hitters with your first few selections, you should draft Ichiro in the third or fourth round.

3. J.J. Putz, RHP – Putz has quietly become one of the best closers in the major leagues. Last season, Putz was 6-1 with a 1.38 ERA and 40 saves. He’s likely to save 35-40 games again this season and his ERA will be around 2.00. Putz should be one of the first closers taken, so be sure to grab him in the fifth or sixth round if you’re interested.

4. Felix Hernandez, RHP – Even though he won’t turn 22 until the second week of April, Hernandez has already been pitching in the majors for 2 1/2 seasons. He’ll win 15-20 games in 2008 with an ERA around 3.75. Hernandez will also have 165-175 strikeouts, so he’ll make a good addition to your fantasy team. Hernandez should be drafted in the eighth or ninth round in most formats.

5. Adrian Beltre, 3B – Beltre probably won’t have numbers similar to 2004 when he hit .334 with 48 home runs and 121 RBIs, but he’s still a valuable option at third base. Beltre will likely hit around .280 with 25-30 home runs and 95-105 RBIs in 2008. He’s among the best third basemen in the AL, so grab him in the eighth or ninth round.

6. Kenji Johjima, C – In his first two seasons in the majors, Johjima showed that he is capable of hitting around .290 with 15-20 home runs per year. It’s a good idea to grab Johjima in the middle rounds of your draft, but you may need to pick him earlier if the other owners grab the best available catchers quickly. You don’t want to be stuck with a catcher who doesn’t provide any offensive help. Johjima will at least help your team’s batting average and contribute slightly to your power numbers.

Hidden gems:

1. Raul Ibanez, LF – Ibanez will hit at least .285 with 20-25 home runs and 100-110 RBIs. However, there’s a good chance that he’ll still be around in the later rounds of your draft. Other owners in your league may be turned off by his age – he’ll be 36 in June – and the fact that there are plenty of other outfielders available. Grab Ibanez with one of your later picks and he’ll give you an excellent backup in case someone gets injured.

2. Richie Sexson, 1B – Last season wasn’t very good for Sexson because he only hit .205 with 21 home runs and 63 RBIs. Nevertheless, he’ll probably hit closer to his career batting average (.263) in 2008. Since he had such a poor season, you could probably grab Sexson with one of the last picks of the draft. If you’re lucky, Sexson will hit 30-35 home runs with 100-110 RBIs and your gamble will be successful.

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About this blog

Dave Golokhov
Fantasy sports are to Dave Golokhov what a lack of power is to the Orioles lineup; it is not just a hobby, it is a way of life. Dave has been a fantasy expert for Rotowire and hosts a weekly fantasy show on Saturdays at 12 p.m. EST on Hardcore Sports Radio, Channel 186 on Sirius Satellite Radio. From draft day decisions to waiver-wire watching, he'll be the fantasy version of your fantasy Dr. Phil: just ask the questions and he'll dole the advice. E-mail Dave
Dean Jones
Dean Jones Jr. is a Web producer at baltimoresun.com. Thanks to fantasy sports, he is able to make decisions that he wishes the Orioles and Ravens would make for their teams. He will be a regular contributor to the fantasy blog.
E-mail Dean
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