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October 31, 2007

NBA stock market

Yeah, yeah, forgive the cheesy fantasy article/stock market analogy. This entry is going to regularly focus on players to either "buy low" or "sell high" in your fantasy basketball league.

Buy Low:

Martell Wesbter, F (POR): You and a ton of other people are going to click away and add Webster to your roster after opening night, and rightfully so. I added him during the preseason when he was tearing it up, averaging 18.0 points per game along with 2.8 three-pointers, and watching him last night against the defending champion San Antonio Spurs just further reinforced my belief. He played 39 minutes -- the most out of any Trail Blazer -- and scored 21 points (9-of-15 FG), including three three-pointers, three rebounds, an assist and a block. He looks like he will be a solid source of points and an excellent source of threes -- I'm not sure what to expect in the other categories but he is definitely worth owning.

Joel Przybilla, C (POR): One thing stood out to me watching the Portland Trail Blazers last night: they have no muscle at center outside of "Ghostface" Pryzbilla. That means you pick him up immediately. As long as he's healthy, he's a double-double threat and good for two blocks per game. Playing in the Western Conference, the Trail Blazers can't leave LaMarcus Aldridge or Channing Frye to bang with any bigs, so Ghostface is going to see a lot of playing time.

Jason Williams, PG (MIA): Similar to Portland's situation at center, the Miami Heat have no other options at point guard besides Williams. Yes, that is a shot at Smush Parker, who is a backup at best and can not create consistently for others. "White Chocolate" is a playmaker and as long as he's healthy, will be a healthy source for assists. Now that Antoine Walker is gone, the Heat will get to split up the 30 shots per game that he sucked up, and that fact combined with Dwyane Wade's injury, means that White Chocolate should be decent for points in the early going as well.

Rafer Alston, PG (HOU): You were probably deterred from drafting Alston when the Houston Rockets acquired Steve Francis, Mike James and Aaron Brooks. Or maybe it was the fact that he stabbed someone. ... But regardless, Alston is the starting point guard in Houston and the guy most capable of running their offense. Alston ranked in the top 11 in three-pointers and steals per game last year. With the offense opening up in Houston, expect him to be legit as long as he doesn't relinquish the starting role. New head coach Rick Adelman has already cut Francis out of the rotation, which is a vote of confidence for Alston. Alston may look inconsistent, but ignore his game-to-game box scores and focus on his averages.

Ronnie Brewer, SG (UTA):
Not that I'm strictly focusing on guys from opening night, but I just like to see good preseason play continue once the games mean something. Brewer averaged 17 points per game and 2.3 steals per game in the preseason, but more importantly for Jerry Sloan, he played solid defense. Brewer worked hard in the offense to become the answer for the Jazz at shooting guard and he's developing into a nice sleeper. Mehmet Okur is dealing with cartilage damage in his right foot, which is an injury that will linger and will eventually create the necessity for a third scorer outside of Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer. Brewer appears to be that guy right now.

October 30, 2007

NFL waiver wire

Kellen Clemens, QB (NYJ): Now that he is officially the starter in New York, Clemens is worth picking up off the waiver wire. With one touchdown, four interceptions and a quarterback rating of 46 so far this season, don't expect Peyton Manning, but you can expect him to improve as the season moves along. Clemens' strong arm should open things up for the Jets' conservative offense. The Jets have only three passing plays of 40 yards or longer this season, two of which were completed by Clemens when he started for Chad Pennington in Week 2.

Justin Fargas, RB (OAK): While Justin Fargas has been used sparingly by the Oakland Raiders, his role is expected to change down the stretch of the season. The two games that he has received more than 10 carries this season, he has totaled 240 yards, averaging more than seven yards per carry. With Dominic Rhodes in the doghouse, Fargas is a LaMont Jordan injury away from being a valuable starter. As we've seen in the past, a Jordan injury is fairly common.

Lee Evans, WR (BUF): After speaking out in favor of quarterback J.P. Losman a few weeks ago, it was no surprise to see Lee Evans thrive when Losman got into the lineup in Week 8. Evans caught his longest pass of the season and his first touchdown once Losman took over for injured rookie Trent Edwards. While Evans is a borderline decent fantasy receiver with Edwards, it is clear that his explosiveness is directly linked to Losman's strong arm.

Kevin Walter, WR (HOU): With the latest rib injury to Andre Davis, the Houston Texans are running out of healthy wide receivers. That has benefited Kevin Walter, who quietly tallied 401 yards and a touchdown on 30 receptions in October. Walter has been targeted an average of 13 times per week over the last four weeks and that number might go up if Davis can't play in Week 9. The lack of a feasible running game and consistent deficits has also helped his totals.

Vernon Davis, TE (SF): Injuries and a feeble passing game have kept Vernon Davis from translating freakish talent to on-field effectiveness, but he did post his best game as a pro this past Sunday. He caught six passes for 71 yards and a touchdown and figures to be a focal point of the passing game if he remains healthy. With only 176 receiving yards on the season, it is hard to rely on him from week-to-week, but the good news is that the 49ers' quarterbacks don't have any other receiving threats they can trust.

Atlanta Falcons Defense: With the Chicago Bears on a bye this week, some of you will probably be looking for a one-week fix at defense. Try the Atlanta Falcons, who host the sluggish San Francisco 49ers this Sunday. The 49ers have averaged 12.6 points-per-game this season and have scored only 35 points over their last four games. The Falcons are by no means the 2001 Baltimore Ravens, so consider this more of a rejection of the 49ers offense than it is an endorsement of the Falcons defense.

October 26, 2007

Ravens bye week fantasy flash

So you laughed when I said the Baltimore Ravens would struggle in Buffalo. I was even derided in a couple of e-mails I received. But as I predicted, the Ravens stunk it up on the road and their fantasy performance left quite a bit to be desired. The good news was Willis McGahee found the end zone and so did Derrick Mason. Those two have been the lone fantasy bright spots for the season.

Here's a look back at the Ravens season and how their players have done in the realm of fantasy football:

Steve McNair, QB: Injuries have been an evident problem, but so has age. Steve McNair has thrown only two touchdowns this season after tossing 16 last year. He's only completed three passes of 20 yards or longer, even though he's averaging nearly 40 pass attempts per game. An offensive line that has had as many starting fives as an Isiah Thomas New York Knicks squad doesn't help, but the fact is that McNair isn't a starting fantasy quarterback right now and his ceiling is a No. 2 fantasy quarterback at best.

Willis McGahee, RB: "First round production from a second-round back" is a line you heard me say frequently if you listened to our fantasy football draft on Sirius Satellite Radio and although Willis McGahee hasn't disappointed in yardage total (second-most rushing yards in NFL), the fact that he only has two rushing touchdowns is hampering his owners. As the Ravens get healthier on offense, expect him find the end zone with a little more frequency.

Mark Clayton, WR: Entering his third NFL season, Mark Clayton was tabbed as a breakout candidate by many observers, but an early ankle injury, combined with inadequate play at quarterback, has limited Clayton to 153 yards this season. He is waiver-wire scraps for now but keep an eye on how this offense functions after the bye week.

Derrick Mason, WR: Derrick Mason was supposed to be a write-off but he has been one of the best fantasy parts on this decrepit offense. Mason leads the NFL in receptions, which is great in point-per-reception pools. 529 yards and two touchdowns is also very respectable in non-point-per-reception pools, particularly as a second or third wideout. Unless you are in a shallow pool, he should be on your roster.

Todd Heap, TE: Todd Heap has only 19 receptions and one touchdown this season, which is not what many fantasy owners expected out of him. He's been battered and bruised, which has likely compounded the team's struggles in the red zone. He is still the main receiving threat in the red zone so if you own him, you've got to hold on to him and hope the passing offense improves after the bye week.

Ravens Defense: Fifteen sacks is fairly low for a defense that notched 60 sacks last season and has been more dominant in the past than this season. Even so, they aren't giving up many points per game, which is likely the key stat for defense in your fantasy league. The Ravens also have 14 takeaways, which is the third-highest total in the NFL.

October 25, 2007

NFL waiver wire

Brian Griese, QB (CHI): Since throwing three interceptions in his first start against the Detroit Lions in Week 4, Brian Griese has settled into his role in Chicago. He's playing extensively for the first time in a couple of years, so it is understandable that the guy needed to shake some rust off. Since that start, he has thrown only three picks since and has six touchdowns. He is averaging just over 300 yards passing and two touchdowns per week over the last four weeks and after last week's Peyton Manning-like two-minute drill, he has displayed confidence in his weapons. The Bears aren't moving the ball on the ground with any success, which means Griese should continue to post starting fantasy quarterback numbers.

Kurt Warner, QB (ARI): With weapons like Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin and Bryant Johnson, and a running game that still isn't running cleanly, Kurt Warner is a quarterback that should be owned in all leagues -- while he's healthy. He's already displayed that his pin-point accuracy is still present and has six touchdowns over the last five weeks -- most of which came while splitting time with Matt Leinart. Warner is a decent starter and definitely a quality No. 2 option.

Kevin Jones, RB (DET): After gingerly recovering from a LisFranc sprain, Kevin Jones made his first start of the season this past Sunday. Offensive coordinator Mike Martz received a lot of pressure to run the ball, and he responded by calling 15 carries for Jones, which resulted in 76 yards and a touchdown. Even if Martz goes back to his passing ways, Jones still has excellent value as a receiver out of the backfield - he finished fourth in yards-after-catch in 2006 despite only playing in 12 games.

Lee Evans, WR (BUF): After finishing with only 101 yards receiving through four September games, Evans nearly doubled his total last week with 98 yards. Rookie quarterback Trent Edwards has been looking his way more frequently, and Evans has averaged four catches and 60 yards-per-game with the rookie instead of J.P. Losman. Evans' value is still stronger in point-per-reception leagues since he still hasn't found the end zone. Edwards doesn't throw downfield bombs like Losman did, which has curtailed the time that Evans spends in the end zone.

Donald Lee, TE (GB): With fellow tight end Bubba Franks expected to miss a couple of games with a knee injury, Donald Lee's value increases. Lee has averaged about 55 yards receiving per week over the last three weeks, which included Franks stealing two or three catches per week. Franks has also been used more in the red zone, which betters Lee's chances to score now that he takes over that role.

Robbie Gould, K (CHI): After totaling only 24 points in September, Robbie Gould has already kicked past that total in three games in October. With Griese and the Bears' offense moving the ball once again, Gould is getting ample opportunities for field goals and extra points. As long as Cedric Benson continues to struggle, expect the Bears' drives to continue to stall in the red zone, giving Gould an opportunity to come and finish up.

October 19, 2007

The mailbag

Here's some of the NFL fantasy questions I've received recently, along with the feedback:

I need to start two wide receivers and T.J. Houshmandzadeh is a given, but who out of Bobby Engram, Dwayne Bowe, Reggie Wayne or Wes Welker would you start?

Bobby Engram is one of the guys I'd bench, even though he's going up against St. Louis, which is atrocious defensively. The Rams' run defense is atrocious and Shaun Alexander should be able to get his mojo going and the Seahawks will probably be playing with a lead, which leads to less passing.

Dwayne Bowe is on the road in Oakland this week. Damon Huard isn't the same quarterback on the road as he is at home and furthermore, you're going to see a lot of Larry Johnson again this week.

Donte Stallworth's breakout game last week helps Wes Welker. With people keying on Randy Moss and then Stallworth, Welker seems to always be able to beat his coverage. He's solid, doesn't drop passes and has good chemistry with Tom Brady. Two other special factors for this week: Ben Watson limped off the field last week and might not play -- if he doesn't play that helps Welker -- and also, Welker is playing his former team. That always seems to add some flavor to the mix.

My advice is that you should stick with your top gun, who is Reggie Wayne. He'll like playing these Jacksonville Jaguars a little more so than usual. Their safeties used to be stout and the Indianapolis Colts receivers didn't like getting thumped by them. Now, the guys they have -- Reggie Nelson, who isn't playing well at the pro level, and Sammy Knight, a spent veteran -- don't strike a ton of fear. More importantly, if the Jags don't get pressure, they might give up more than a couple big plays. The Jags simply don't give up yards on the ground, and the Colts will have to pass to win.

I have Brian Griese and Jay Cutler available, who should I start?

I would go with Jay Cutler over Brian Griese.

For starters, he's more talented. Secondly, he's at home after a bye week.

Griese heads to Philadelphia -- a high-pressure defense -- and his offensive line hasn't been protecting him. Also, they will probably run the ball a lot to keep the game out of Griese's hands. Otherwise, he'll make some mistakes.

Javon Walker is out and the Pittsburgh Steelers secondary has been tough, but their stats are padded from opponents like the Cleveland Browns (before they were hot), the San Francisco 49ers and the Buffalo Bills. The Broncos are 14-4 in their last 18 games following a bye week.

Should I pick up Kevin Jones, who is a free agent or should I start Marshawn Lynch or Lendale White, the two of them I already have?

Marshawn Lynch and Kevin Jones have tougher matchups than LenDale White, but White is on the road, while both Jones and Lynch are at home. The Titans are averaging only 2.9 yards per carry in their last three games.

I like Jones. They've been talking about including him more in the offense all week and he's a factor in the passing game, so he has value even if he doesn't run. The Lions are a high-octane offense and it's only a matter of time before he gets in on that.

Lynch probably is a good option because he's already shown that he will get his yards regardless of who he faces. The Ravens defense is beaten up this week and if Buffalo does get into the end zone, it will probably be him taking them there.

Do you like Anquan Boldin or Andre Davis or Jerricho Cotchery? I have to start 2 of the 3.

I would skip Anquan Boldin, who is making his first game back after a prolonged injury and might have Tim Rattay throwing his passes.

Jerricho Cotchery is a good option this week. The Bengals' defense is just awful and I have a hunch that he gets into the end zone.

Andre Davis has been good for yards since he got into the lineup and had a touchdown catch reversed last week. Both him and Cotchery are better options than Boldin.

I'm trying to pick up the Philadelphia Eagles defense off waivers to start them this week instead of the Denver Broncos defense, what do you think?

I think that's a good call. The Denver defense at home should give a valiant effort, particularly since they play well after bye weeks and are commemorating Darrent Williams and Damien Nash, but the Philadelphia Eagles get Brian Griese at home this week.

Griese has been mistake prone -- he has eight turnovers in three starts. Is that really better than Rex Grossman?

More importantly, the Eagles' defense is getting healthy as cornerback Lito Sheppard is expected to start and safety Brian Dawkinspracticed late in the week, which might indicate a return for him as well.

THE Hardcore Fantasy Show - 2-Hour NBA Draft Special

On THE Hardcore Fantasy Show this week, which starts an hour early at 11:00 a.m. ET on Saturday:

Jay Feely (Miami Dolphins) talks some fantasy football and will talk about beating down Roy Williams' team last week.

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Will Carroll (SI.com), who has hot friends like this:

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will get us caught up on all sorts of NFL injuries and let you know who is good to go, and who is hampered.

The Hardcore Fantasy Basketball Draft will commence at 11:30 a.m. ET and run until 1:00 p.m. ET. Each pick will be live-blogged on hardcoresportsradio.com.

As always:

1-888-9-HARDCORE and thefantasyshow@hardcoresportsradio.com!

Ravens Week 7 fantasy flash

Just to preface this post -- I think the Ravens are in for a much tougher game this week than most people are willing to admit. Their defense is not as dominant or aggressive as it used to be and will be without Chris McAllister and Trevor Pryce, who's been out since he suffered a broken wrist in Week 2. On offense, they only have six touchdowns this season, have struggled painfully to find any sort of consistency and are starting the league's youngest offensive line. That last note might be the most crucial, since the Buffalo Bills' strength on defense is their front four. The Ravens lost at Cincinnati, got trashed in Cleveland, and barely squeaked by the Trent Dilfer-led San Francisco 49ers in the Bay Area -- no road game is a given for this team right now.

Kyle Boller, QB (BAL): Boller will get his first road start in two seasons and if his home stats are any indication, there isn't much to get excited about here -- even against a feeble Buffalo Bills defense. This offense just hasn't run smoothly all season long and Boller clearly is not anything but an emergency solution -- in fantasy or reality. He's averaged 185 yards passing in two home starts against the New York Jets and St. Louis Rams -- two teams that have combined for one win this season-- so don't hold your breath for stellar production in Buffalo.

Willis McGahee, RB (BAL): Sure, there is the side story of McGahee's return to Buffalo, but that is an overrated angle. McGahee is averaging about 85 yards-per-game on the ground and only has two runs of 20 yards or longer, which is not the type of explosive weapon the Ravens thought they were getting. It's not his fault, though, he's been one of the Ravens' better weapons. You can expect the Bills to be on him -- they will try to do everything in their power to force the Ravens to win this game through the air.

Derrick Mason, WR (BAL): Mason still leads the league in receptions (49) but his paltry 9.2 yards-per-catch doesn't help you much unless you are in a point-per-reception league. He's not an explosive weapon but obviously both quarterbacks feel comfortable looking to him on a consistent basis.

Mark Clayton, WR (BAL): Three receptions for 23 yards is all that Clayton had to show after facing the Rams secondary last week. Surprisingly, though, those three catches double his total on the year. If he is on your bench, the waiver wire is looking like a more suitable home.

Demetrius Williams, WR (BAL): He's shown flashes of potential but with zero touchdowns and no more than 63 yards in any game, Williams should still be on the waiver wire. Like Clayton, it's difficult to see his value improving unless there is better play at the quarterback position.

Todd Heap, TE (BAL): Heap is dealing with a hamstring injury and is unlikely to play in Week 7. Along with the rest of the passing offense, Heap has been a disappointment.

Ravens Defense: The Ravens have only 13 sacks this year after averaging 3.75-per-game last year. They have the league's fourth-ranked defense overall, and the eighth-ranked scoring defense, which is a little lower than what we have come to expect from them, particularly against such an easy early schedule. They still have 13 takeaways, which is second-best in the league but that might be more of a testament to opponents' mistakes, rather than turnovers they've forced.

October 17, 2007

NFL waiver wire

Jason Campbell, QB (WAS): Part of the Redskins' resurgence back to relevance has been due to the play of Campbell. He has five touchdowns and only two interceptions in the last four games and is averaging just over 217 passing yards per game. Those numbers indicate he is a serviceable backup fantasy quarterback and a starter for desperate teams.

DeAngelo Williams, RB (CAR): With the quarterback situation influx in Carolina, look for the running backs to be the biggest benefactors. Foster, Williams' backfield competitor, only has big games against the Atlanta Falcons. Of Foster's 404 rushing yards, 122 came against the Falcons. That means in his other five games he's averaged 56.4 rushing yards. That should allow the sophomore, Williams, to pry away the job. Williams is averaging 5.5 yards per carry and finished with 121 rushing yards and a touchdown last Sunday.

Chris Chambers, WR (SD): Chambers was the biggest name dealt at the trade deadline as general manager A.J. Smith decided to get the San Diego Chargers some help at wide receiver. It's been a while since they had an impact player at wide receiver but some people wonder if Chambers is in fact an impact player. The former second-round pick is a good player and has been suffering from awful quarterback play in Miami. Here's some of the guys he's played with: Jay Fiedler, Sage Rosenfels, A.J. Feeley, Joey Harrington, Gus Frerotte and Ray Lucas. Even Philip Rivers on a bad day is better than all of the aforementioned ring tossers. This definitely helps Chambers' value.

Bobby Engram, WR (SEA): With Deion Branch and D.J. Hackett sidelined, Engram has stepped into the No. 1 receiving role in Seattle. The 12-year veteran might be older and might be slower, but he is one of the few reliable receivers on the team. He led the Seahawks with nine receptions and 120 yards this past Sunday and is on pace for over 1,000 receiving yards.

David Martin, TE (MIA): Martin was a Cam Cameron signing in the offseason but had been a disappointment while Trent Green was under center. He recorded only seven catches over his first four games. But since Cleo Lemon took over, Martin has five catches in his last two contests, including two touchdowns. Part of the problem was that Martin was inconsistent and also dropping passes -- two themes that have been prevalent throughout his career. But it looks like things are trending upward for Martin with Lemon throwing the passes.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense: They were supposed to be old and expired, yet Monte Kiffin's defense is once again a top-10 scoring defense. They are allowing only 14.5 points-per-game, and if you subtract their Week 5 meeting with the Indianapolis Colts, the Bucs have allowed only 20 points over their last three contests. They are also forcing turnovers -- their 12 takeaways is tied for third-most in the NFL.

October 14, 2007

Ravens Week 6 fantasy flash

Steve McNair, QB: With McNair's status up in the air, as he is listed as a game-time decision because of a stiff back, he isn't a good fantasy option as a starter -- even if you are desperate. Regardless of whether McNair or Kyle Boller took all the snaps with the first-string offense on Thursday and Friday, they will probably be handing the ball off a lot to running back Willis McGahee.

Kyle Boller, QB: At this point, for this week alone, Boller has more fantasy value than McNair, in my opinion. McNair just doesn't look right at this point and injuries are hampering his accuracy. Boller, on the other hand, is healthy and has a stronger arm. He's in a better position to take advantage of the weapons around him.

Willis McGahee, RB: McGahee should be licking his chops against the 28th-ranked rush defense. He'll likely get his first rushing touchdown of the season this year, particularly with the ambiguous situation at quarterback. McGahee has rushed for at least 77 yards in each of his starts and ranks third in the NFL in rushing, so he remains a must-start every week.

Derrick Mason, WR: If you are in a point-per-reception league, Mason is one of the most valuable receivers. He is averaging about 74 yards receiving on a weekly basis and his 44 receptions lead the league. Touchdowns are always a stretch but he is seeing the ball a lot.

Mark Clayton, WR: Clayton has been a huge disappointment this season and you can blame injuries and an unhealthy McNair. Another factor is the fact that the Ravens are not looking downfield a lot, something Clayton himself has mentioned. Right now, Clayton should stay on your bench.

Todd Heap, TE: Heap, like Clayton, has been a disappointment this season. His problems, like Clayton's, are a microcosm of the Ravens' offensive struggles, particularly in the red zone. He only has one touchdown this season and only one catch in the red zone, which was the aforementioned touchdown grab. For health purposes, he did fully practice on Friday and is listed as probable.

Ravens Defense: The Ravens' defense has had a fall from grace. They are still strong overall (fourth in NFL) and in opposing third-down conversion percentage (third in NFL), but they aren't pressuring the quarterback like we are used to seeing. They have tallied only nine sacks (19th in NFL). Terrell Suggs is struggling and combined with Bart Scott, the tandem only has one sack. Last year, they combined for 19. Fewer sacks means fewer turnovers. The Ravens have only four interceptions this season -- none by any of their cornerbacks. They are still a must-start but are clearly not worth the sixth-round pick that most owners had to spend to get them.

October 12, 2007

NBA Fantasy: Monitoring Pre-Season Injuries

The preseason has already kicked off in the NBA and there are some key injuries to monitor as fantasy draft day approaches.

Chris Bosh, F (TOR): Chris Bosh is having some knee problems, which appear to be more serious than some people are letting on. Bosh is also dealing with plantar fasciitis, which hurt Tim Duncan's fantasy production two seasons ago. He recently had an MRI on his knee, as the soreness seems to be persisting. The good news is that the team has basically shut him down for the time being, which is the only way his fasciitis will heal. Even so, these are the types of injuries that might linger throughout the season.

Etan Thomas, F (WAS): Etan Thomas underwent open-heart surgery on Thursday and is expected to miss the entire season. First of all, I hope he heals fully and comes back healthy for next season. For the time being, bump up Brendan Haywood on your draft sheets. Haywood could have been a decent starter at center last year but was mired in a time-share with Thomas. Now the job should clearly be his with Andray Blatche backing him up.

Rashard Lewis, F (ORL): Although he had to be helped off the court, a sprained ankle doesn't concern me too much with Rashard Lewis. X-rays were negative and he should have enough time to rest before the regular season kicks off.

Monta Ellis, G (GS): After nearly being paralyzed, Monta Ellis escaped with a just a minor neck sprain. All signs are go with Ellis and he appears to be back battling Marco Belinelli for the starting shooting guard spot.

Eddy Curry, C (NYK): Eddy Curry is dealing with a lingering shoulder injury, which probably won't hamper him too far into the season, but is limiting his ability to build chemistry with his new teammates, particularly Zach Randolph. The New York Knicks look great on paper with all of their new additions but might not be much more than that on the court because of chemistry issues. Wins and losses shouldn't affect his fantasy value too much, though.

THE Hardcore Fantasy Show

Fresh off his best NFL start to date, Indianapolis Colts' first-round pick Anthony Gonzalez joins us to talk fantasy football on THE Hardcore Fantasy Show Saturday at 12 p.m. EST, on Hardcore Sports Radio, Sirius Channel 186.

To listen live or for a podcast of the show, visit hardcoresportsradio.com.

Also, we'll talk about the importance of commissioners -- and good ones, at that -- in fantasy pools. What makes a good commissioner? How can a commissioner ruin your league?

Need to vent? Need advice? Dial 1-888-9-HARDCORE.

October 10, 2007

The NFL waiver wire

David Garrard, QB (JAC): Garrard isn't going to any Pro Bowls in the near future but he isn't going to the bench either. Garrard has been just solid and consistent for the Jacksonville Jaguars and is growing into a decent No. 2 fantasy quarterback. He has yet to throw an interception in 68 pass attempts this season and has tossed one touchdown pass in each game. His 239 total yards support his case to be a decent backup, especially if he continues to avoid mistakes.

Kurt Warner, QB (ARI): The quarterbacking split between Matt Leinart and Warner won't work now that Leinart has a broken collarbone and is out for the season. Warner was pushing for the main role anyway and has run the offense more efficiently this season. Warner has five total touchdown in the last three games and a quarterback rating of 102.3 -- potential No. 1 fantasy quarterback numbers -- making him valuable in virtually all leagues.

Najeh Davenport, RB (PIT): Without Jerome Bettis around last season, Willie Parker rushed for 1494 and 13 touchdowns. But it looks like he's back to a time-share situation as Najeh Davenport has been stealing his touchdowns. Parker has only one touchdown on 121 attempts while Davenport has three on 28 attempts. Considering Parker is averaging 2.4 yards-per-carry in the red zone, and that Davenport received all of Pittsburgh's three carries inside the 5-yard-line last week, don't expect double-digit touchdowns for Parker this season.

Andre Davis, WR (HOU):Without Andre Johnson in the lineup, Davis has become Matt Schaub's top target. While starting over the last three weeks, Davis has caught at least four passes, at least 70 yards and at least one pass longer than 40 yards each week. His 20.5 yards-per-catch average leads the NFL. Even when Johnson returns from his knee sprain, Davis will still have some value.

Greg Olsen, TE (CHI): With the wide receivers really struggling in the Bears' offense, quarterback Brian Griese has been targeting his reliable tight ends more often. Griese looked for Olsen frequently as the Bears' first-round pick led the team with four receptions, 57 yards and a touchdown this past week against Green Bay. With Minnesota, Philadelphia, Detroit and Oakland coming up on the schedule -- all pass defenses ranked 20th or worse -- look for Olsen to become more of a focal point in this offense.

Tennessee Titans Defense: While Adam "Pacman" Jones lobbies to get back on the field, the Titans might not want -- or need -- him back. The Titans, who owned the 32nd-ranked defense in 2006, have climbed up to the fifth spot this season without their oft-troubled cornerback. More importantly, they are only allowing 14.8 points per game. Their seven interceptions rank sixth-best in the NFL and is on pace to top their total of 17 from last year. They've also returned two of those picks for touchdowns.

October 7, 2007

Ravens Week 5 fantasy flash

The Ravens head to the Bay Area today in desperate need of a win. The 2,821-mile trip is their longest of the season and considering it's their second consecutive road game, the Ravens will have to keep their focus, even against a seemingly shorthanded, weak opponent.

Steve McNair, QB: McNair was limited by the groin injury earlier in the week, but practiced Friday. He's a trooper and will probably play but be somewhat hindered. Nonetheless, the bottom line is that Brian Billick and the Ravens probably don't want to see him put up 53 pass attempts again. Fantasy owners, on the other hand, probably won't mind. I don't expect a good day from McNair fantasy-wise. The San Francisco 49ers know that they have to win this game on defense and coach Mike Nolan should have them ready to face his former team.

Willis McGahee, RB: McGahee continues to increase his rushing yardage each week, piling up 104 yards on 14 carries last week against the Cleveland Browns. While the rest of the offense seems to be lost, he is getting stronger by the week. He is a must start and will likely be a major factor in whether the Ravens win the game, considering the 49ers' run defense is ranked 25th in the NFL.

Derrick Mason, WR: Although he has vowed to play, Mason is dealing with nagging injuries. It looks like he took Friday off just to rest, but I don't see him offering a ton of fantasy help going up against Nate Clements or Walt Harris -- two Pro Bowl-caliber corners.

Mark Clayton, WR: Is this the week Clayton breaks out? Ask Lady Jane, not me. He hasn't been as much of an enigma as people think -- he's just been dealing with injuries. But with Mason and Todd Heap battling injuries of their own, I could see Clayton being the McNair's top offensive target this week. Maybe that's just a hunch, though.

Todd Heap, TE: Listed with a thigh injury, Heap is questionable for this week's game. He would be a nice weapon in what figures to be a closely contested game, but it is tough to gauge whether he will be available/effective. Watch the news wire to make sure that he's active before making a decision on whether to start him.

Baltimore defense: So at first, they were struggling to close out games in the fourth quarter. Now they are just struggling. The Ravens should keep things simple and be aggressive this week, but I don't know if we'll see what is supposed to be the best fantasy defense. They are going up against Trent Dilfer, who finished with a passer rating of 0.0 last week, but keep in mind that the Ravens are playing their second straight game on the road. They aren't completely healthy on defense and haven't been getting much help from the offense in the points department. Even so, if you have them, you have to start them this week -- and pretty much every week.

October 6, 2007

NHL waiver wire

Mike Comrie, C – New York Islanders

Is it time to face the music? Are the New York Islanders a good team? Yes, after just one game in the 2007-08, I'm emphatically stating that they are.

Listen, their roster was a bunch of makeshift scraps last season and Ted Nolan made it work – why won't it work now that they've got their personnel in place?

Mike Comrie heads the top line on what I consider to be a playoff team. I think he is going to have enough value to keep in your lineup for a while. There is enough upside to pick him up even if you are skeptical of the Islanders.

Dainus Zubrus, C – New Jersey Devils

I'm not as high on Dainus Zubrus as I am on Comrie, but Zubrus does have a track record. Zubrus has posted back-to-back 20-goal seasons, topping 50 points both times. Now he plays on the top line in New Jersey next Patrik Elias and Brian Gionta, which is probably the best spot he's been in for a couple of years. The Devils will once again be a defensive team, which hurts his value.

Jonathan Bernier, G – Los Angeles Kings

Younger skill players are getting a chance to shine at the pro level earlier than ever and although that mostly applies to forwards and skill players, Jonathan Bernier is benefiting from the youth movement in Los Angeles. The Kings should be around .500 and it seems that in many leagues there is a scramble for starting goaltenders. The key for me is that Bernier got the start over Jason LaBarbera in the season opener and looked pretty good in his first outing. Keep an eye on him.

Sergei Fedorov, C – Columbus Blue Jackets

Ken Hitchcock is turning around the Columbus Blue Jackets slowly, which might mean some of their players have some fantasy value to offer. Sergei Fedorov isn't exactly perceived to be a Hitchcock guy, but that is hard to gauge. In his final 20 games last season, Fedorov had zero multi-point games. He already notched one in this season's opener. Playing alongside Rick Nash and David Vyborny, Fedorov could be fairly productive if he stays healthy.

Phil Kessel, W – Boston Bruins

Phil Kessel is arguably the Boston Bruins' best up-and-coming talent on the front lines. The key here is to watch which lines he plays on. If he skates with the second line along with Patrice Bergeron and Marco Sturm, whom he seems to be comfortable with, Kessel could push 50 or 60 points. If he's on the third line, he should stay on the waiver-wire.

October 5, 2007

THE Hardcore Fantasy Show

Is there ever a week to bench Peyton Manning and the members of the Indianapolis Colts offense? Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pro Bowl linebacker, Cato June, thinks so. He joins us on THE Hardcore Fantasy Show Saturday at 12:00 PM ET, on Hardcore Sports Radio, Sirius Channel 186.

To listen live or for a podcast of the show, visit hardcoresportsradio.com.

We'll also talk NHL fantasy and some early reflections on what has transpired so far as well as some long term player projections.

Need to vent? Need advice? Dial 1-888-9-HARDCORE.

October 3, 2007

Rams Bench Bulger

After an unfathomable 0-4 start, the St. Louis Rams have put starting quarterback Marc Bulger on the bench for the time being. Bulger had been playing with two broken ribs and has been a shadow of his former self since signing a six-year, $65 million extension.

This move will help the Rams in the short term, particularly for this week at home against the Arizona Cardinals. New Rams starter Gus Frerotte is an experienced veteran, but more importantly, he knows this offense well and has worked with head coach Scott Linehan in the past. Cardinals offensive coordinator Greg Olsen has been demoted for the time being and Linehan will take over the play-calling.

The problem for the Rams, though, has been their offensive line. Bulger was getting pummeled and the running game was non-existent. But I get the feeling that a lot of pressure will come off of this team now that Steven Jackson and Bulger are out and any expectations for this season have dissipated.

They should be more relaxed and even though "more relaxed" doesn't necessarily equal wins, it should mean that the Rams' talented offense will produce more fantasy points than they have so far this season.

Look for this to help the value of tight end Randy McMichael. Linehan will probably use him more now that he's calling the plays and McMichael and Frerotte played together in Miami. McMichael has been an afterthought in the offense so far this season.

October 2, 2007

The waiver wire

Matt Schaub, QB (HOU): People keep waiting for Matt Schaub to fail but he has established himself as a valuable fantasy quarterback. His completion percentage of 74% rates third-best in the NFL, two spots behind Tom Brady. Schaub is averaging 251.2 passing yards per game, which is far superior to Donovan McNabb, Eli Manning and Philip Rivers. More importantly, he has proven that his production isn’t linked to the parts around him as he’s still thrived the last two weeks without his top target, wide receiver Andre Johnson. As he grows more comfortable in this offense, he’s moving toward becoming a No. 1 fantasy starter.

Joey Harrington, QB (ATL): ***WARNING*** So Joey Blue Skies has looked fabulous the last couple of weeks, but hasn't that been the story of his inconsistent career? Maybe so, but his recent numbers are hard to ignore. Before we break down the stats, let's face it -- he's probably working with the best supporting cast he's had in his career.

Harrington is completing 71.2% of his passes and his 984 passing yards (584 in the last two weeks) rank ninth in the NFL. More impressively, he's looked fine in the face of pressure and seems to be making his wide receivers better. Granted, his last two games were at home but Harrington has looked better in those two games than he has in any other two-game stretch in his career.

Steven Jackson, RB (STL)
: Steven Jackson’s goals of a 2,500-yard season have long been fumbled away and for fantasy owners stuck with the supposed No. 1 back, the news might not be getting better. A groin injury for a running back is never minor and given the severity of Jackson’s groin strain, expect it to hamper him until he has the offseason to fully heal. Factor in that the Rams' offense is dysfunctional and Jackson didn’t look so hot to begin with and you’re looking at one of the biggest fantasy busts in recent memory. My advice is to trade him right now. I know that his value is low and you won't get much for him but I don't see him being a reliable fantasy contributor this season.

Dominic Rhodes, RB (OAK): Dominic Rhodes is currently serving a four-game suspension but after watching former Terp LaMont Jordan get carted off the field on Sunday, you have to pick up Rhodes immediately. Justin Fargas went berserk this week with 179 rushing yards against the Miami Dolphins but Rhodes will be the starter when he gets back, if history serves as evidence. Rhodes is a Lane Kiffin signing and if we can draw anything from the quarterbacking carousel in Oakland, it is th