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September 30, 2007

Ravens Week 4 fantasy flash

Steve McNair, QB: Steve McNair might not have a breakout game this week, but it is definitely one of his better matchups this season. Heck, the Cleveland Browns are everyone's best matchup of the year. Now we know the Browns hung 51 on the Cincinnati Bengals, but they also allowed 45 and nearly lost on the last drive. As Jamison Hensley pointed out in the scouting report for this game, the Browns have given up 11 passing touchdowns this season -- most in the NFL. Safeties Brodney Pool and Sean Jones are biting on fakes a lot and are getting burned deep. McNair should have a decent day, but I think the Ravens will be run-heavy.

Willis McGahee, RB: Willis McGahee is starting to hit his stride in this offense, and I wouldn't be surprised if he is the most effective starting fantasy running back today. The only thing the Browns' defense, which is the second-worst in the NFL, has going for it is that it's at home. In his only previous game against the Browns, McGahee had two touchdowns and 105 rushing yards.

Mark Clayton, WR: Mark Clayton is starting to get on some fantasy nerves because he was expected to break out and has only caught six passes for 33 yards so far this season. If you are in desperate help at the position, you might need to drop him. If you have depth, keep him around. He is listed with a calf injury this week and might be limited to passing plays. Keep him on the bench until you see a good game from him.

Todd Heap, TE: Aside from McGahee, Todd Heap is likely to have the most productive fantasy day for this offense. As mentioned before, the safeties are really struggling and the secondary is desperately missing veteran Brian Russell, who helped everyone get lined up in the proper positions. Heap down the seam, Heap past the first down marker and Heap in the red zone will be available all day.

Derrick Mason, WR: Derrick Mason, tabbed as merely a possession receiver at the beginning of the season, is fourth in the AFC with 23 receptions. Once again, facing a feeble pass defense and probably rookie cornerback Eric Wright, this might be Mason's best opportunity to get a touchdown. No need to be down on him -- he's a good start this week.

Ravens Defense: The Browns have moved the ball effectively since Derek Anderson took over, but I have little faith in him this week. Both him and Jamal Lewis will get a shot at their former teams, and they will probably struggle. The Ravens have the top-ranked rushing defense, which doesn't bode well for Lewis. As for Anderson, he's not facing the Cincinnati Bengals or Oakland Raiders this week.

September 29, 2007

The mailbag

If you have any fantasy questions or need any fantasy advice, shoot me an e-mail - I answer all questions.

Messy QB situation: Drew Brees is on a bye and my options are David Carr, Jake Delhomme or Matt Schaub?

Jake Delhomme missed three consecutive practices this week with an elbow injury, so he's not a great option. Factor in the uncertainty of whether he or David Carr will start, and it doesn't look like a good situation. Furthermore, the Carolina Panthers are playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this week, a team that has proven to have a very stiff defense over the first three weeks.

I think your best option is Matt Schaub, who has proven to be an effective passer so far this season. He's coming back to the franchise that traded him and will be without his top two wide receivers, but against Atlanta this week, he's your best talent with the best matchup.

I think Mason Crosby's star is starting to fade - who is another good option?

I'm not sure why you are down on Mason Crosby already; he plays on a team that moves the ball effectively through the air and can't move it on the ground. That means they will be getting stuck inside the red zone a lot.

If you are looking for better options than that, Jeff Reed in Pittsburgh has probably been the best fantasy kicker to date. If he isn't available, I'd look at a guy like Jason Hanson, who is getting ample opportunities to kick field goals (and extra points) for the Detroit Lions.

I Need to start two runners. I have Joseph Addai, Ronnie Brown and Marshawn Lynch. Addai is the obvious choice, but who's my second man?

With your main man out of the way, I'd go with Ronnie Brown as his wing man.

Marshawn Lynch might have a good day against the New York Jets, whose defense is suspect, but there are too many factors that are going against that. For starters, the Buffalo Bills are missing as many as seven starters, including quarterback J.P. Losman. What that means is backup rookie Trent Edwards will get his first start. With that in mind, expect the Bills' offense to be extremely conservative since Edwards doesn't fully know the playbook. On top of that, the Jets should be able to move the ball at will, which will lead to the Bills playing from behind and being forced to abandon the running game. Also, without many offensive weapons, the Jets know that all they have to do is stop Lynch and they'll win the game.

As for Ronnie Brown, he's facing the Oakland Raiders at home and apparently head coach Cam Cameron pushed the start button on his engine last week. Brown had over 200 combined yards and is facing a defense that is susceptible to the run. I see mistakes in this game, short fields for both teams and lots of points, which puts Brown in a better position to rack up more points than Lynch for this week.

September 28, 2007

THE Hardcore Fantasy Show

Ever heard an NFL player talk about his fantasy team? Or whether he drafts -- or plays -- himself on a weekly basis? Tune into to Hardcore Sports Radio, Sirius Channel 186 on Saturday at 12:00 PM ET to hear Chris Cooley, tight end of the Washington Redskins, talk about his team.

Also, Will Carroll of SI.com, who is an injuries expect, will remove all of the questions about the 'questionable' players for this week of NFL action.

You can also listen live or catch the podcast at www.hardcoresportsradio.com.

September 27, 2007

Looking for help: Tight ends

Apparently I'm not the only one looking at -- or for -- tight ends. Sexual innuendo aside, a reader posted a comment on my latest waiver wire entry about needing to add a tight end. Here's a rundown of players you should consider picking up if they're available.

Just a reminder, if you have any fantasy questions or blogs topics you would like to see covered, shoot me an e-mail. I will read and respond to every e-mail I receive.

Jeff King (CAR): I won't rehash this guy, since he's in my last post, but this second-year player has caught at least four passes per week and the Carolina Panthers have said they are focused on getting their tight ends the ball.

Bubba Franks (GB): Franks is a former Pro Bowl player who has been N/A for the past couple of seasons. He has resurfaced this season, particularly as a red-zone threat. He might only have 42 receiving yards this season, but he also has two touchdowns. The Green Bay Packers don't have much of a running game at this point and are using the tight ends quite a bit in the short passing game to supplement what the ground game should be giving them.

Donald Lee (GB): While Franks is more of the red-zone threat in this offense, Lee is being used more overall. Lee has caught four passes in each of the first three games and his yardage totals have increased each game. He also has a touchdown, which means he isn't ignored in the red zone. The Packers like their two-tight end sets.

Owen Daniels (HOU): With Andre Johnson and Jacoby Jones out for the Houston Texans, Matt Schaub has been getting the ball to Daniels with more consistency. Daniels was one of David Carr's favorite targets last season and know how to get open. Among AFC tight ends, Daniels is tied for fifth in receptions.

Greg Olsen (CHI): This recommendation is mostly on potential, but Olsen could be a real factor for the Chicago Bears shortly. For starters, he'll have a veteran quarterback throwing to him now that Brian Griese is in the lineup. While Desmond Clark will be the safety valve, Olsen can be the downfield threat down the seams if the Bears' offense can wake up.

Marcedes Lewis (JAC): Here's another former first-round pick to keep your eye on. Lewis has already been compared to a rusted Lada, but he might not be a bust quite yet. He's a tough player to gauge as far as whether he is developing or not, probably partially because he isn't playing with a great quarterback, but there are positive signs. He has nine receptions on the season and is averaging 13.1 yards-per-catch, both are good for second-best on the team. The Jags need more red-zone options and would be thrilled if Lewis could help them out inside their opponents' 20-yard line.

September 26, 2007

The waiver wire

Daunte Culpepper, QB (OAK): Daunte Culpepper subbed in for the turnover machine, Josh McCown in the Oakland Raiders' win over the Cleveland Browns Sunday and should be taking over the starting role shortly -- possibly as early as this week. McCown has McFumbled seven times (one lost) and thrown five interceptions in two-and-a-half games. He's dealing with injuries on his foot and throwing hand. Culpepper finished 8-of-14 for 118 yards Sunday and led the Raiders on their game-winning drive. The Raiders' offense is much better than it was a season ago, and with two capable receivers and a decent running game, Culpepper might have some value.

Brian Leonard, RB (STL): From the quick fix category, take a look at Brian Leonard -- otherwise known as Steven Jackson's backup -- for the short term. The St. Louis Rams prepped the second-round pick heavily in the preseason -- he had 39 carries and 10 receptions -- with the intention of using him as a change-of-pace to Jackson in the regular season. But now that Jackson has a slight tear in his groin and is out for Week 4, Leonard all of the sudden hops into the limelight. The Rams' offense is still trying to get into a rhythm but Leonard becomes a very valuable player if they do start to hit their stride.

LenDale White, RB (TEN): After dealing with Kirstie Alley-type weight problems in his rookie season, LenDale White has looked fit in his sophomore season. White may be sharing time with Chris Brown in Tennessee's backfield, but he's not sharing the rock near the end zone. His eight touches inside the 5-yard line lead the NFL. White has touchdowns in each of his last two contests and figures to be a scoring threat all season long.

Roddy White, WR (ATL): I know what you're thinking: first I'm suggesting Atlanta wideouts, next I'm suggesting Jacksonville Jaguars receivers. Yes, that's exactly what I'm going to do.

It may have taken a while, and maybe Michael Vick should take some of the blame, but it appears that Roddy White is finally maturing. The former first-round pick is Joey Harrington's favorite target and has 208 receiving yards and a touchdown over the last two weeks. He is a big-play threat and his four receptions of 20 yards or more is tied for third-most in the NFC. The Falcons will be playing from behind all season, which translates into ample opportunities for White to pile up yardage in catch-up time.

Reggie Williams, WR (JAC): Tread with extreme caution here, but Reggie Williams has seemingly developed a good rapport with Jags quarterback David Garrard. Williams -- on talent alone -- is the best weapon in the Jags' offense, but he rarely plays like it. The good news is that with Garrard's scrambling style, Williams has developed a knack for breaking off his route and finding a soft spot to catch a pass. His numbers are not great to date (four receptions, 52 yards, two touchdowns) but he is the Jags' best red zone receiving option, as evidenced by his two touchdowns. Keep a close eye on the situation.

Jeff King, TE (CAR): Tenth in yardage and tied for 8th in receptions among tight ends is the relatively unknown, Jeff King. Who? Exactly. He has caught no less than four passes in each of the first three weeks and is quietly emerging as that elusive second option to Steve Smith in the Carolina Panthers' offense. He has been targeted six times per week and is available in virtually every type of league. The Panthers and offensive coordinator Jeff Davidson have been talking about emphasizing their tight ends a lot more for the better part of the offseason, and King is the result of that push. In his second NFL season, he might only be getting better.

Houston Defense/Special Teams: Maybe drafting Mario Williams ahead of Reggie Bush wasn't such a bad idea after all. In his second season, Williams is proving to be more of the impact player on a defense that is averaging 2.3 sacks and one interception per week. In leagues where special teams and defense are lumped together, the Texans have been stellar, scoring a touchdown in each of their first three games.

September 23, 2007

Ravens Week 3 Fantasy Flash

Steve McNair, QB (BAL): After a week off, Steve McNair is set to make his second start of the season. There are questions -- in fantasy and reality -- as to whether he is on his last legs, so we'll get a better idea of that answer on Sunday. McNair was sloppy in the first week and defenses don't believe he can test them down the field any more. If that's the case, McNair's fantasy value is fairly low and he is also hurting the value of wideouts Mark Clayton and Demetrius Williams.

Derrick Mason, WR (BAL): So you thought he was just a possession receiver? Well, actually you were right. Derrick Mason isn't a very good fantasy wide receiver anymore unless you are in a point-per-reception league. Mason has 15 catches in the first two weeks, which is pretty good, but his longest grab has gone for 12 yards. He's not going rack up many touchdowns -- or big plays -- this year, which means he's a No. 3 fantasy wideout at best.

Mark Clayton, WR (BAL): Pegged as a potential breakout candidate, injuries have hampered Mark Clayton's production to date. But judging the quarterback play so far, you have to wonder what Clayton's real potential is this season. He doesn't exactly have Peyton Manning throwing to him and the offense is supposedly run-oriented. On most other teams, I'd say 1200 yards and five touchdowns were realistic but factoring his situation in Baltimore along with his early season injuries, I'd say 1000 yards is already a stretch. Kyle Boller's strong arm might help Clayton's value.

Demetrius Williams, WR (BAL): Demetrius Williams has filled in for Clayton in the first two weeks and has looked pretty good. Unfortunately, given the fact that Mason has performed steadily along with the fact that the first and second wide receivers don't offer a whole lot of fantasy value, it doesn't bode well for Williams, who figures to slide into the third slot with Clayton back starting.

Willis McGahee, RB (BAL): Some people want to lump Willis McGahee along with a number of other early-season fantasy running back flops, such as Maurice Jones-Drew or Ronnie Brown, but McGahee is not with them. He's definitely a No. 1 fantasy back but is still getting acclimated to this offense. Expect him to get stronger as the weeks go and he does have a decent matchup this week against the visiting Arizona Cardinals.

September 22, 2007

NHL Fantasy: Prospects Watch

Let's try something new here: some NHL fantasy. Like it? Hate it? Want to see more or less of it? Shoot me an e-mail and let me know.

For now, with NHL fantasy drafts rapidly approaching (and underway), let's take a look at some rookies who should make a fantasy impact this season:

Nicklas Backstrom, C (WAS): Backstrom, a talented center, will be playing along side either Alexander Semin on the second line or Alexander Ovechkin on the top line. Either way, he's going to rack up a lot of points playing next to both of those snipers, and should be the early Rookie of the Year candidate. He could have played last season, but the Washington Capitals were extra patient with his development. He should be ready to go and ready to make an impact this year.

Patrick Kane, W (CHI): Selected first overall in the 2007 NHL Entry Draft, Kane will have a tough time making a Sidney Crosby/Evgeni Malkin-type impact. But he is a skilled scorer on a team that doesn't have high expectations for this season. Keep your projections low, but I have a sneaking suspicion that Kane will be a contributor this year. The Chicago Blackhawks might keep him on the team, rather than sending him down, because they need to sell seats and he's a good draw.

Jonathan Toews, C (CHI): Toews has the potential to make a much stronger fantasy impact for the Blackhawks, simply because he's not so raw. In keeper leagues, Toews is a must, but even in regular leagues, expect Toews to be a factor. He should make the top two lines as the coaching staff keeps raving about him.

Carey Price, G (MTL): Of all of the rookie goaltenders, Price probably has the best shot to make an impact, but it might not be much of one to begin with. The Montreal Canadiens' goaltending situation is convoluted as Cristobal Huet and Jaroslav Halak are also in the mix. But Price had an outstanding developmental season last year, and since the Habs are going through a youth movement everywhere else, it only makes sense for him to crack the lineup at some point. Price could provide the spark at the back end that gives this young team some confidence to make a playoff run.

Peter Mueller, C (PHX): The Phoenix Coyotes have been a decrepit organization so it is hard to trust them any time they are high on a prospect, but if you have to put faith in one for fantasy, Mueller might be your guy. He'll bang along the boards and has more quickness than speed, but the bottom line with Mueller is that he is going to get a ton of playing time. There aren't many other scoring options in Phoenix, which makes Mueller a person of interest.

Edmonton Oilers: The Oilers are chalk full of prospects, but it is difficult to differentiate who is ready and who will get minutes. Sam Gagner was outstanding in the Canada-Russia Super Series with 15 points in eight games. Andrew Cogliano, a 2005 first-round pick, has had a good preseason so far and is making a push. Robbie Schremp is a deep sleeper, mostly because he is recovering from an MCL and quad injuries, but is possibly the most NHL-ready prospect the Oilers have. Kyle Brodziak and Robert Nilsson are other prospects that are jockeying for time.

September 20, 2007

Leftwich In Atlanta

Byron Leftwich's situation in Atlanta is eerily similar to his situation with the Jacksonville Jaguars.

He is in a pass-heavy offense but has the support of two capable, versatile running backs. He's also in an offense that has wide receivers with a history of underachieving.

Let's think positive, though. The Falcons signed him for two years to be the answer at the position and not just to push Joey Harrington. While the receivers might not give anyone nightmares, they are better than what Jacksonville offered for Leftwich. Tight end Alge Crumpler is a better safety valve than Leftwich has ever worked with.

Joe Horn is as close a receiver to Jimmy Smith as Leftwich has seen since Smith retired, and Michael Jenkins and Roddy White have a much higher ceiling than Matt Jones and Reggie Williams.

Right now, it's just a matter of how quickly Harrington gets injured or how quickly Leftwich can learn the extensive playbook. Chris Redman, who played quarterback under Bobby Petrino at Louisville and is now a backup in Atlanta, talked about the scheme being extremely complex in the preseason.

Leftwich might have value as a backup fantasy quarterback by Week 7 or 8. If you have a roster spot in a deep league, stash him away or closely monitor the situation.

The waiver wire

David Garrard, QB (JAC): He isn’t a great fantasy -- or reality -- No. 1 starter, but as a backup, he is serviceable. In two weeks, in what was supposed to be a run-heavy offense, Garrard has 13 more passing attempts than handoffs and a touchdown in each game. The upside is limited in this offense but you can do much worse than Garrard as your backup QB.

DeShawn Wynn, RB (GB): After burning the New York Giants for an impressive 38-yard touchdown run, Wynn has been the hottest fantasy pickup this week. But keep in mind that the seventh-round pick had only 12 yards on his other nine carries. Wynn’s role is expected to increase and at worst, he’s still the goal-line vulture in Green Bay, which means he’s worthy of a roster spot, but he's not the receiver that Brandon Jackson is out of the backfield.

Jason Avant, WR (PHI): Eight receptions, 109 yards and one touchdown don’t exactly jump out at you but the numbers that Avant has posted in the first two weeks of the season are the best among receivers on his team. While Reggie Brown, Kevin Curtis and L.J. Smith were all drafted long before him, Avant not only has more receptions and yards than all of them, but he’s the only one to have found the end zone. The fact that he catches the ball in traffic bodes well for him long-term.


Ben Watson, TE (NE):
He has been an underachiever throughout his career but he appears to have turned the corner. Watson is one of only three tight ends with two touchdowns this season, and he doesn’t appear to get much attention in the red zone with Randy Moss around. It’s early, but he is on pace to set career highs for receptions and touchdowns.

San Francisco 49ers Defense: The San Francisco 49ers have been outgained virtually everywhere -- in total yards, first downs and time of possession -- but not on the scoreboard. They’ve allowed an average of 16.5 points per game while notching seven sacks and forcing four turnovers. With a paltry offense, the 49ers should be playing many low-scoring games, which should make them valuable in leagues where points allowed is a critical stat.

The last guy is probably not on your waiver wire, but this is more of just a good omen for a start him/sit him:

Chris Cooley, TE (WAS) – Cooley only has three catches on the season with one going for a touchdown, but a meeting with the New York Giants should get him back on the successful track. The Giants have allowed 174 receiving yards and three touchdowns to tight ends so far this season, which bodes well for Cooley.

September 18, 2007

NFL Week 2: Injury Ripple Effect

Week 2 wasn't nearly as devastating as Week 1, but let's cycle through the key injuries and the ramifications they will have going forward:

Andre Johnson, WR (HOU): Johnson left Sunday's contest in the fourth quarter after grabbing seven receptions for 120 yards and two touchdowns. Originally deemed as cramping, an MRI revealed a sprain and Johnson is now doubtful for next week. Hard to speculate, but it looks like he'll miss a couple of games. While the Texans are thin at wide receiver, and many owners will reach to grab preseason star Jacoby Jones off the waiver-wire, I think tight end Owen Daniels benefits the most if Johnson’s out.

Justin Miller, CB/KR (NYJ): Justin Miller, a Pro Bowl returner for the New York Jets, appears to be lost for the season with a knee injury. In fantasy leagues where special teams and defenses are grouped as one, the Jets’ defense take a hit. If you are wondering about the ramifications, Leon Washington's value should increase a little bit as he takes over the role. He's not being used much in the running game, so he doesn't offer much value outside of receptions and returns.

Plaxico Burress, WR (NYG): The New York Giants are dealing with a rash of injuries already and can ill afford to lose Plaxico Burress for any prolonged period of time, especially since they just lost rookie wide receiver Steve Smith for two to four weeks (fractured shoulder blade). Burress has been battling a sprained ankle through training camp and may have re-aggravated it. He also sprained his pinky finger. Even while battered and bruised, Burress said he's fine and will play next week. He is a No. 1 fantasy wide receiver, especially considering how much the Giants will be playing from behind this year.

Randy Thomas, G (WAS): A week after losing right tackle, Jon Jansen, for the season, the Washington Redskins will now have to deal without Randy Thomas (triceps) for possibly the rest of the season. The Redskins have now lost the whole right side of their offensive line, which means more blocking for tight end Chris Cooley and likely less yardage for running backs Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts. No team can lose two starters of this caliber and continue without missing a beat.

Kevin Jones, RB (DET): Kevin Jones skipped the PUP list before the season and -- as per his word -- made it back prior to the six weeks he would have had to miss if he wasn't physically unable to perform. Jones is probable to return for this week, although head coach Rod Marinelli says he'll only get 15-20 touches. The Detroit Lions running game is bleak without Jones and it looks like they've lost confidence in Tatum Bell. Jones is an excellent receiver out of the backfield, which makes him a much better fit -- and a greater asset -- to this offense.

September 15, 2007

Ravens Week 2 Fantasy Flash

With six turnovers in Week 1, it is safe to say the Ravens' offense gave away a victory against the Bengals Monday night. Expect a much better performance this week.

Kyle Boller, QB: Has Kyle Boller turned the corner? Could he actually still become a starting quarterback again in the NFL? Those are questions I thought were put to rest after Boller was labeled a bust but now I'm not entirely sure. Maybe Boller looks better now simply because of how poorly Steve McNair performed in Week 1?

As far as fantasy goes, Boller is actually in a pretty good situation this week, if he in fact gets the start and McNair sits out. The New England Patriots dissected the New York Jets' secondary last week and Boller could be good for one or two touchdowns in what is predicted to be a blowout.

Steve McNair, QB: It's uncertain whether McNair start -- he's listed as questionable and will be a game-time decision. He is dealing with a groin injury and did some throwing Thursday and Friday while Boller ran the first-string offense in practice. If he does play, my guess is that he serves as janitor and makes the safe throws.

Willis McGahee, RB: If Boller is at QB, McGahee might be in line for a pretty good game. With McNair at the helm, opposing defense are crowding the line of scrimmage and begging McNair to beat them deep. Boller has a much stronger arm, which opposing defense will have to respect. That means McGahee might have more space to work with in the box.

Mark Clayton, WR: The former Oklahoma stud is still battling an injury (listed as 'toe' on injury report) and his value is limited until he's back at full speed. He's questionable for this week and had limited work in practice on Friday. Keep him on your bench.

Demetrius Williams, WR: Williams will likely take most of Mark Clayton's reps this week and he's already a waiver-wire guy that many fantasy owners are eyeing. Last week, Williams had three receptions for 55 yards and had he caught a touchdown, he'd be on rosters everywhere. Until Clayton is healthy, Williams has some fantasy value and could flash his downfield speed with Boller filling in.

Todd Heap, TE: I think Heap bounces back after a shaky opening game. He did catch a touchdown, which was wrongly called back, then dropped another sure one. Boller and McNair both feel comfortable throwing to him.

Baltimore Defense: The Ravens' defense was in excellent shape on Monday night and should look even better this week. Typically, the Ravens haven't fared so well against Carson Palmer but this week they get a freebie when second-year quarterback Kellen Clemens likely gets his first career start. With Thomas Jones struggling, the Jets will be one heck of a one-dimensional offense. Factor in that their offensive line is struggling and the Jets are in an awful situation and might not score until mop-up time this week.

September 12, 2007

The waiver wire

Kellen Clemens, QB (NYJ): Kellen Clemens was a quick add as everyone watched New York Jets starting quarterback Chad Pennington limp off the field against the New England Patriots. Clemens, a second-year product and the future at the position, has superior physical tools but might not be a superior fantasy option right away. The Jets offensive line is struggling and the offense is complex scheme with a lot of no-huddling. The Jets wouldn’t be crazy to start him this week, if Pennington isn’t able to go with a sprained ankle, but you’d be crazy to start him on your fantasy team as the Jets head to Baltimore.

David Garrard, QB (JAC): In a disappointing season-opening loss for the Jacksonville Jaguars, the offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter called 30 passes for Garrard and only 13 handoffs, even though the game was tight the hole way. Garrard's value has quickly spiked but expect head coach Jack Del Rio to have a heart-to-heart with Koetter, and tell him that if he is only going to be calling 13 running plays per week, he is going to be fired. Garrard is not better than a No. 2 fantasy quarterback once or twice a month.

Ronnie Brown, RB (MIA): If you were an owner that spent a first- or second-round pick on Dolphins running back Ronnie Brown, you might be feeling a little sea-sick after watching the preseason and Week 1. Head coach Cam Cameron made plenty of mention of backup runner Jesse Chatman, but fantasy owners derided the theory that the two would split carries. Cameron stayed true to his word, though, and Chatman had 13 touches in Week 1 to Brown’s 17. Seeing Brown at fullback and Chatman getting two goal-line carries should cause further anxiety for Brown’s owners. Now is a good time to pick up Chatman.

Kenton Keith, RB (IND) It might seem like a distant time ago now, but on the opening carry of the opening game Thursday night, Joseph Addai took a big lick and had the wind knocked out of him. Kenton Keith stepped in seamlessly, but then Addai returned and posted a monster fantasy outing. Most people have already forgotten Addai's early injury, but I haven't. If you have a roster spot, keep Keith stashed in case Addai goes down again.


Donte' Stallworth, WR (NE):
There seemed to be a lot of uncertainty surrounding the production of Randy Moss heading into the regular season but it is another New England Patriots’ free agent wideout that might disappoint. Donte’ Stallworth was New England's fifth receiver in Week 1 and played 26 fewer snaps than Jabar Gaffney. Stallworth might have a couple of good games this year but it looks like he’s at the back of a crowded lineup in New England.

Shaun McDonald, WR (DET): The fourth wide receiver on most teams doesn’t usually boast much fantasy value, but in a Mike Martz offense, things are different. Roy Williams, Mike Furrey and Calvin Johnson are on most fantasy rosters but even with those three targets around, McDonald totaled 90 yards receiving and a touchdown in Week 1. The Lions have an awful defense and will be passing a lot to stay even on the scoreboard. With the big three in front of him, his ceiling is low but with an injury and a bump up the depth chart, his value will shoot up.

Eric Johnson, TE (NO): Johnson isn’t a new name; you just haven’t heard from him in a couple of seasons (or since I blogged about him after the Thursday night season-opener). In 2004, he led the San Francisco 49ers in receiving but spent 2005 on injured reserve. In training camp, Johnson was Drew Brees’ favorite target near the red zone and led the Saints in receptions and receiving yards in the opening game of the season. I'm high on Johnson because I never invest heavily into tight ends on draft day and typically wait for one like Johnson to emerge on the waiver-wire. In a high-octane offense, he can be a quality fantasy tight end.

Minnesota Defense: Joey Harrington did throw two touchdown passes in Week 1 -- they just both went to the Vikings' defense. In 2006, Minnesota boasted the top run defense in the NFL but also had the league’s worst passing defense. Their main fault was their inability to generate pressure on opposing quarterbacks as they finished with only 30 sacks. They showed that their feeble pass rush has strengthened as they racked up six sacks in Week 1 to go along with two touchdowns, two interceptions and a forced fumble. Not only are they a good waiver-wire pickup, they could be a top-10 fantasy defense this year.

September 11, 2007

NFL Week 1: Injury Ripple Effect

The opening weekend of the NFL season looked like an episode of MASH as the injuries continued to pile up all the way through Monday Night Football. While your fantasy studs may not be the man down, they still could be affected by the injuries to their supporting casts. Let's take a look:

Eli Manning, QB (NYG): Obviously, Manning is a heavily owned player and a reliable No. 1 fantasy quarterback that can't be replaced. The Giants already look like a horrific defensive team and now without Manning, this team is going to get shredded on a weekly basis. Backup Jared Lorenzen is awful, which means that Plaxico Burress and Jeremy Shockey automatically regress in value. The only bright spot is that Manning is not done for the season.

Brandon Jacobs, RB (NYG): Jacobs is an upright runner and is a 10-game season waiting to happen. Well, now it's happened. Jacobs, in his first day as the full-time Giants running back, sprained his MCL and is out 3-5 weeks. Somewhere, Tiki Barber is smiling. With Manning also out, backup Derrick Ward doesn't have much value. This offense will not be able to move the ball until Manning comes back.

Orlando Pace, LT (STL): Of all of the long-term injuries, this one might have the biggest fantasy ripple effect. While it is under the radar, the St. Louis Rams lack of depth on the offensive line is about to be exposed. Pace is a perennial Pro Bowler and will not be replaced. Quarterback Marc Bulger now has to be more weary of his blindside and the push that the offensive line gets on Steven Jackson’s rushing attempts will be diminished. Right tackle Alex Barron will move to the left side, which will inherently mean that tight end Randy McMichael will once again be forced to spend more time blocking than he’d like.

Jon Jansen, RT (WAS): Jansen, the stalwart right tackle for the Washington Redskins, suffered a several ankle injury Sunday and is done for the year. This is bad news for the backfield tandem of Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts, but mostly for tight end Chris Cooley. Undrafted rookie Stephon Heyer will step in for Jansen and you can expect a drop-off. Since it is on the right side, Cooley will do more blocking now that Jansen is out for the second time in four seasons.

Chester Taylor, RB (MIN): This is an injury that will definitely sting Taylor. A year removed from signing a lucrative free agent contract, the former Raven has already been back-seated to stellar rookie Adrian Peterson. Now he's going to be hampered somewhat with a hip pointer and will lose even more playing time. Fantasy owners were hoping to get at least a half season from Taylor but it looks like Peterson will be the feature back now. Taylor still has value though. Peterson is a brittle player.

*Just a final note about offensive line injuries. While losing Pace or Jansen may not directly affect the skill players on the team, often at the end of the season, when you look back and say -- "why did my guy underachieve on this offense?" -- it is usually because the supporting cast was not as strong or not as healthy.

September 8, 2007

Ravens Week 1 Fantasy Flash

Each week I'll go through the Ravens’ fantasy prospects and give a fantasy assessment of their game. This week the Ravens are in Cincinnati to face the Bengals on Monday Night Football. They have lost four of the last five meetings against the Bengals.

Ravens Defense: They are basically the LaDainian Tomlinson of defenses in the sense that you typically don't even look at the matchups and just start them. But interestingly enough, they don't play awesome against the Bengals like they do against the rest of the league.

They've only sacked Bengals quarterback Carson Palmer nine times in the last five meetings. Given time to pass, Palmer has posted a QB rating of 108.2 and completed at least one bomb of 40 yards or longer in each of those five games.

Willis McGahee, RB: The Ravens have averaged 23.3 points-per-game on Monday Night Football, which bodes well for McGahee. He had a fairly uneventful preseason but I wouldn't be too concerned. The bigger issue will be if left tackle Jonathan Ogden (toe) can't play -- or play at full speed. The Bengals’ run defense is soft and as long as the Ravens’ offense doesn't come out as flat as the New Orleans Saints’ offense did against the Indianapolis Colts, McGahee should have one of the better fantasy matchups for a running back this weekend.

Steve McNair, QB: McNair isn't a great option to start as your No. 1 but he might just pass as a No. 2 this week. You can expect the Bengals to put a lot of focus into shutting down McGahee, particularly in the red zone, which might open up some passing lanes for McNair.

Mark Clayton, WR: Clayton is battling an ankle injury but will probably play Monday night. The question is: will he be at full strength? He practiced with his ankle taped on Thursday, which may indicate that he’s not completely healthy. Even so, the injury is not serious and Clayton is still the big-play receiver in this offense. He should be a good No. 2 fantasy wideout this year.

Demetrius Williams, WR: Obviously, if Clayton takes a step back at all, Williams will be the guy who will step up in the lineup. Even in that scenario, I think McNair would look more to Derrick Mason and Todd Heap. We don't know enough about Williams right now to rely on him as a fantasy starter of any sort.

Todd Heap, TE: Heap is a must start every week. He has 18 receptions for 231 yards and two touchdowns in his last four games against the Bengals.

Derrick Mason, WR: Mason is more of a possession receiver at this point and might not have more than two or three good fantasy games this season. If you are in a league that doles out points-per-reception, he becomes a potential No. 3 fantasy wideout on some weeks. On the flipside, though, he's only caught five touchdown passes over the last two seasons and two have come against the Bengals.

September 7, 2007

MLB Pickups: Who's Hot And Available

Here's a look at the guys who are burning it up in baseball and should find their way onto your roster:

Rick Ankiel, OF (STL): If you thought Ankiel was the heart-warming story that sparked the St. Louis Cardinals resurgence in the National League Central, you are partially right. His return makes a good plot for a Disney movie, but it has been his big bat in the lineup that has reignited St. Louis. He has nine home runs, 29 runs batted in and is hitting .358 in 23 games this season. If you project his numbers over 370 at-bats, which is how many teammate Chris Duncan has this season, he would have 41 home runs and 132 RBIs.

Adam Wainwright, P (STL): Sticking with the Red Birds, Wainwright, the Cards' bullpen sensation in the 2006 postseason, has been fantastic since the All-Star break and should be on more than 48 percent of rosters, which is the percentage of ESPN.com fantasy leagues that he is owned in. He is 6-2 since the break with an ERA of 2.43. He has 57 strikeouts and only 19 walks in his 66 2/3 innings pitched, which ranks him among some of the best fantasy starters in baseball right now.

Garret Anderson, OF (LAA): Anderson is chilling on waiver wires, mostly because the general perception is that he is past his prime. In fantasy, disregard gossip and stick to facts. His 10-RBI game was a good sign to pick him up and his nine-game RBI streak (with six home runs in that span) is a definite green light. He has 34 RBIs in his last 20 games.

Alex Gordon, 3B (KC): Gordon, who was drafted high in many drafts, had been a chump for most of the season but has turned it around. He batted .173 in April and .195 in May, which landed him a pink slip from most fantasy owners. But he has 40 runs, 21 doubles, three triples, eight home runs (three in September) and 10 stolen bases since. That's quality production across a number of categories. Since he's a rookie, he should be poised for a strong finish.

Scott Baker, P (MIN): Another player who had an awesome outing in real life is still being neglected in fantasy. Baker, who had a perfect game going into the ninth inning on Aug. 31, is a guy worth keeping your eye on. He did get touched up for 11 hits and three earned runs in his last start, but was stellar in August. Baker posted a 3-2 record with an ERA of 2.59 in August, striking out 26 batters in 41 2/3 innings pitched and holding opposing batters to a .272 average. Although the potential is here, the Twins are tailing off down the stretch, which is why you should take a wait-and-see approach with Baker.

Pick Him Up: Eric Johnson

In training camp, New Orleans Saints tight end Eric Johnson was one of Drew Brees' favorite targets and now that we have the evidence to back it up in the regular season, it's time to give Johnson that call to invite him to your roster.

Johnson is a converted wide receiver who has a successful track record in the NFL. He led the San Francisco 49ers with 82 receptions for 825 yards in 2004. Johnson missed all of 2005 with an injury and with the addition of former Terp and athletic freak Vernon Davis, Johnson became expendable in the Bay Area.

On opening night, Johnson led the Saints with eight receptions and 57 yards and was the consistent safety valve that Brees relied upon.

Fifty-seven yards is a decent day for a fantasy tight end and if he can throw in some touchdowns, he will be a nice waiver-wire-pickup-turned-starter for your team.

September 5, 2007

NFL Opening Night -- Fantasy Watch

So you know that Peyton Manning and Drew Brees are fantasy studs. Congratulations.

But what is really important in fantasy sports is not only keeping an eye on what's now, but also, what's next.

So when you are watching the opening night of the NFL season, here are some fantasy stories to keep an eye on:

Reggie Bush, RB, (NO):

We know that Bush is going to be an integral part of the offense, but we also want to gauge just how valuable he can be. He's going to catch a lot of passes and pick up a ton of yardage, but will his role be expanded in the red zone?