Welcome aboard to the new fantasy sports blog for baltimoresun.com. Well, it's not exactly new -- the plot will be similar but the characters have changed.

My name is Dave Golokhov and I'll be your fantasy sports big brother for the next while. To get started, let's stir some controversy.

In virtually every fantasy football league, there's always one owner who is looking to do what the Miami Dolphins did during the first-round of the 2007 NFL Draft: pull a shocker.

Maybe he's crazy, maybe he's attention-starved, but maybe -- just maybe -- he's shrewd.

Here's a theory that will have you thinking that I fall into one of those three categories:

We know that LaDainian Tomlinson is the top take of the draft, but from the second pick on, consider taking Peyton Manning.

First of all, let's establish that Manning is head and shoulders above the rest of the quarterbacks.

Manning is a stud to begin with but you have to factor a number of changes on the roster that point to this being his best statistical season to date.

On defense, the Indianapolis Colts have lost two starting cornerbacks (Nick Harper and Jason David) and an outside linebacker (Cato June) to free agency. Stud defensive tackle, Anthony McFarland, who helped shore up the run defense in the playoffs, is injured long term. Throw in a severe lack of depth all the way around and it is plain to see that the Colts defense, which allowed a league-worst 173 rushing yards-per-game a season ago, is worse off.

When the defense drops the ball, you know who has to pick it up.

On offense, time-controlling runner, Dominic Rhodes, has defected to Oakland, which could lead to even less running this year.

That means the scoring burden falls on the shoulders of Manning and the thought of that will have his fantasy owners salivating.

The second reason you should consider Manning so early is that this year, more than in either of the last two fantasy seasons, there is so much depth at the running back position.

In a 10-team league, there will be 16 picks by the time you take Manning second overall and the clock comes back to you in the second round. Assuming every single owner takes a back, here is who still projects to be available:

Cedric Benson, Cadillac Williams, Ahman Green, Edgerrin James and Brandon Jacobs.

You'll also have an early pick in the third round, which means you can either beat the rush on wide receivers or grab a second running back.

Here's is what it boils down to: would you rather the top quarterback (Manning) and two second-tier running backs or would you rather an A-list running back, a B-list running back and a B-list quarterback.

It's an interesting model.

My theory heading into drafts this year will be to take Manning as early as the second pick, depending on the size of the pool.

With eight owners or less, I would take Manning second because with less picks in between, I won't be so concerned about getting a quality back in the second round. With 10 or more people in the pool, I would value Steven Jackson higher in the second slot and only take Manning from the third spot and beyond.

Manning's average draft position is 5.8 right now, so taking him a few spots higher isn't necessarily crazy or a cry for attention; I would call it shrewd.

--Dave Golokhov