Posted by Dave Golokhov at 5:47 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
                    

Well if you can't trust Erik Bedard as a fantasy option on the Orioles, who can you trust?

That's how things have been going for the Orioles since they extended the contact of Dave Trembley and were spanked 30-3 by the Texas Rangers.

Bedard, who was piecing together a flimsy case for a Cy Young, got knocked around in his most recent start on Sunday. He was 9-0 in his last 12 starts and hadn't lost since June 10^th prior to Sunday’s outing.

Interestingly enough, Bedard seems to have trouble with the Minnesota Twins. He's only allowed six runs three times all season but twice it has happened against the Twins.

He's struck out less than five batters in only three outings this season and once again, twice at the hands of the Twins.

The good news is that the Orioles don't face the Twins anymore this season and Bedard is still one of the best fantasy – and reality – pitchers in the game.

If you are looking for fantasy help elsewhere on the Orioles’ roster, you'd sooner find an ounce of fat on Nicole Ritchie's thin frame.

The Orioles have averaged 3.5 runs-per-game over their last 10, which doesn't exactly excite the fantasy crowd.

Catcher Ramon Hernandez is Mike Jacobs-cold at the plate. He is hitless in his last 21 at-bats and 1-for-37 in his last 10 games (Jacobs, the Florida Marlins' first-baseman, also had an 0-for-31 spell earlier this month).

Here is how some of the other Orioles have batted in their last seven games:

Nick Markakis: .192

Melvin Mora: .200

Brian Roberts: .259

Kevin Millar: .200

The lone bright spots have been Miguel Tejada, who has three of his 14 home runs over the last seven games, and Corey Patterson, who has 11 hits in his last seven games.

For the upcoming series against the Devil Rays, though, here are some players who have hit Tampa Bay pitching fairly well this season:

Aubrey Huff is batting .372 with four home runs, nine runs batted in and four doubles in 43 at-bats against his former team this season.

Maybe Hernandez will break out of his funk – he is hitting .318 when facing Tampa Bay pitching this season.

Daniel Cabrera, who is starting on Tuesday, is 3-0 with a 3.15 ERA in three starts versus the Devil Rays this season. He has pitched 20 innings in those starts and Tampa Bay is batting .188 against him.

Jeremy Guthrie, who is slated to start Thursday, is 2-0 versus Tampa Bay this season with 2.16 ERA.

The Orioles are 10-2 against the Devil Rays this season.

Posted by Dave Golokhov at 10:50 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
                    

If you are considering drafting Larry Johnson, you might want to think again.

There are more questions surrounding the Chiefs superstar runner than there are about Kevin Federline being a father.

Johnson did finish second in NFL rushing last season and also notched the second-most rushing touchdowns, but he also set a record for carries in a season, with 416.

That number is key because when you look at his per-carry average, which was 4.3, you see that his lofty numbers were a result of bulk, not skill. That's not to say he's not talented; but his 4.3 yards-per-carry average ranked 18th among fulltime backs.

To contrast, if Frank Gore had 416 carries last season, he would have had 2246 rushing yards.

The Chiefs have spent ample time this offseason discussing how to shorten Johnson's workload, which means you can expect his carries to come down around 350.

Next in line for my criticism is the deterioration of the Chiefs offense line – and offense – in the past two seasons.

Remember a few seasons ago, when the Chiefs were one of the highest scoring teams in the league, engaged in weekly offensive shootouts and Priest Holmes was high-stepping into the end zone?

Now their offense looks like the picture of Dorian Gray – a shadow of what it used to be.

Last season, perennial Pro Bowl left tackle Willie Roaf retired. This season, Pro Bowl guard, Will Shields hung it up. This offensive line could be contending for worst outfit in the NFL.

As a result, Pro Bowl tight end, Tony Gonzalez, has had to spend more time blocking than receiving over the past two seasons, which has curtailed his effectiveness in the passing game.

Without Gonzalez releasing on passing routes as often, and without any other real conceivable receiving threat, opposing defenses have continued to move closer and closer to the line of scrimmage to crowd Johnson's running lanes.

At quarterback, the Chiefs will either be starting veteran Damon Huard, who is battling a calf injury, or second-year prospect, Brodie Croyle.

In the latest Chiefs preseason game this past Thursday, the Chiefs first-string offense gained 79 yards and five first downs in three quarters. Croyle finished 5-of-17 for 45 yards and an interception. And the Chiefs defense allowed 30 points.

Johnson has yet to play in the preseason but it looks like he is going to take a beating this season. Expect his yards-per-carry average to dip and expect him to see about 70 less carries.

Don't forget that he just signed a lucrative contract and has security. Last season, he was playing to get a fat paycheck and now that he's got it – like most athletes in their first year of a big deal – expect a significant drop-off.

--Dave Golokhov

Posted by Administrator at 8:48 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
                    

Welcome aboard to the new fantasy sports blog for baltimoresun.com. Well, it's not exactly new -- the plot will be similar but the characters have changed.

My name is Dave Golokhov and I'll be your fantasy sports big brother for the next while. To get started, let's stir some controversy.

In virtually every fantasy football league, there's always one owner who is looking to do what the Miami Dolphins did during the first-round of the 2007 NFL Draft: pull a shocker.

Maybe he's crazy, maybe he's attention-starved, but maybe -- just maybe -- he's shrewd.

Here's a theory that will have you thinking that I fall into one of those three categories:

We know that LaDainian Tomlinson is the top take of the draft, but from the second pick on, consider taking Peyton Manning.

First of all, let's establish that Manning is head and shoulders above the rest of the quarterbacks.

Manning is a stud to begin with but you have to factor a number of changes on the roster that point to this being his best statistical season to date.

On defense, the Indianapolis Colts have lost two starting cornerbacks (Nick Harper and Jason David) and an outside linebacker (Cato June) to free agency. Stud defensive tackle, Anthony McFarland, who helped shore up the run defense in the playoffs, is injured long term. Throw in a severe lack of depth all the way around and it is plain to see that the Colts defense, which allowed a league-worst 173 rushing yards-per-game a season ago, is worse off.

When the defense drops the ball, you know who has to pick it up.

On offense, time-controlling runner, Dominic Rhodes, has defected to Oakland, which could lead to even less running this year.

That means the scoring burden falls on the shoulders of Manning and the thought of that will have his fantasy owners salivating.

The second reason you should consider Manning so early is that this year, more than in either of the last two fantasy seasons, there is so much depth at the running back position.

In a 10-team league, there will be 16 picks by the time you take Manning second overall and the clock comes back to you in the second round. Assuming every single owner takes a back, here is who still projects to be available:

Cedric Benson, Cadillac Williams, Ahman Green, Edgerrin James and Brandon Jacobs.

You'll also have an early pick in the third round, which means you can either beat the rush on wide receivers or grab a second running back.

Here's is what it boils down to: would you rather the top quarterback (Manning) and two second-tier running backs or would you rather an A-list running back, a B-list running back and a B-list quarterback.

It's an interesting model.

My theory heading into drafts this year will be to take Manning as early as the second pick, depending on the size of the pool.

With eight owners or less, I would take Manning second because with less picks in between, I won't be so concerned about getting a quality back in the second round. With 10 or more people in the pool, I would value Steven Jackson higher in the second slot and only take Manning from the third spot and beyond.

Manning's average draft position is 5.8 right now, so taking him a few spots higher isn't necessarily crazy or a cry for attention; I would call it shrewd.

--Dave Golokhov

Posted by Administrator at 11:25 AM | Permalink | Comments (5)
                    

This blog is taking a brief hiatus but will return with a new author.

In the meantime, I will be writing about the NFL at Moving the Chains. This is a crucial time for fantasy owners, considering football drafts will take place within the next month. I'll roll out my player rankings at Moving the Chains in the next couple weeks. And as always, feel free to e-mail me with specific questions.

Posted by Sheil Kapadia at 11:48 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
                    

Baltimore Ravens - Where should Willis McGahee be drafted?

I'm looking for McGahee to be a big-time fantasy producer, and I'm not just saying that so I don't get swamped with disparaging e-mails from Ravens fans. I kind of enjoy those. Baltimore's new running back was not much of a factor last season with the Bills, rushing for 990 yards and six touchdowns. That led to critics questioning his toughness and heart. So why do I like the prospects of McGahee rebounding with the Ravens? For starters, he's the undisputed No. 1 back. That may not have meant much 10 years ago, but in today's NFL, it's a big deal. Secondly, while he's only produced 11 touchdowns over the last two seasons, McGahee proved in 2004 (13 TDs) that he can have a nose for the end zone under the right circumstances. And finally, he's playing with something to prove. McGahee thinks he's the best running back in the NFL, and now he gets a second chance to prove it. The concerns? McGahee's never proved to be much of a factor in the pass game. And number two, can the Ravens' offensive line do a better job in the run game than it did last year? I say yes. We all watched Jamal Lewis struggle to gain 1,132 yards and nine touchdowns last year. And at this point in his career, McGahee's a better back. He should be picked towards the end of the first round or the beginning of the second round.

Cleveland Browns - Should we expect a big year out of Jamal Lewis?

If you read the country's most popular NFL writer Peter King, you'd be inclined to grab Lewis as a No. 2 running back. King says Lewis is a lock for 1,300 yards, is in great shape and is out to prove that the Ravens made a mistake in getting rid of him. I haven't been to Cleveland's training camp, but I'm not sold on Lewis this year. He's looked worn out over the past two seasons, averaging 3.6 yards per carry last year and 3.4 yards per carry in '05. He's joining a Cleveland rushing attack that ranked 31st in the league last season when the Browns ran for just seven touchdowns. The bright side with Lewis is that he appears to be the undisputed starter and he could be running with a chip on his shoulder. Still, don't expect big things. He's no more than a third running back.

Cincinnati Bengals - Is Carson Palmer the best fantasy QB not named Peyton Manning?

I say yes. But it's close. Palmer returned from a knee injury in '06 and was tremendous, throwing for 4,035 yards, 28 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. He's more than capable of finishing the season as the No. 1 fantasy quarterback, but it would be foolish to pick him over Manning. Palmer has playmakers at wide receiver, an explosive offense and possibly the best mechanics in the game. It will be interesting to see where he gets picked because the quarterbacks behind him -- Tom Brady and Drew Brees -- also could finish the season as the top-rated fantasy QB. Would you take a shot on Palmer as the second quarterback off the board if you thought you had a shot at Brady, Brees, or even Marc Bulger or Donovan McNabb with your next pick? I don't think I would.

Pittsburgh Steelers - Can Ben Roethlisberger bounce back in '07?

The Steelers quarterback had a rough go last season after a motorcycle accident and appendectomy. On the field, he threw 23 interceptions in 15 games, an atrocious number. That being said, Roethlisberger still threw for 3,513 yards in 15 games, the eighth-highest total in the league. The interceptions were puzzling considering he was picked off only 20 times in 26 games the previous two seasons. It's tough to know what to expect with Bill Cowher gone, but my initial feeling is that Roethlisberger could be a solid sleeper. He's obviously talented enough and is a good bet to complete around 60 percent of his passes. If Santonio Holmes (824 yards, 2 TDs as a rookie) can emerge as a legitimate No. 2 receiver opposite Hines Ward, Roethlisberger could finish this season as a top-10 QB. That's pretty good value, considering he'll likely be around the 15th quarterback off the board in most drafts.

Posted by Sheil Kapadia at 9:35 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)