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How much is just right for Markakis?

Pull up a stool and get your calculators out. Get your wallets out, too. This might not be your money, but in a sense it is.

Every time I am on a radio talk show or someone finds out what I do for a living these days, I get asked about Orioles right fielder Nick Markakis. I get it. Everyone out there wants Markakis signed to a long-term deal.

In today’s paper, we have a story that negotiations between Markakis, who is under the club's control through 2011, and the Orioles have stalled and likely won’t be picked up for six weeks or so.

Apparently, the Orioles have made a good offer, but it is less than what the Markakis camp was hoping for. Therein lies the eventual negotiation process.

All of this is Monopoly money to us. Fifty million, 60 million, 70 million. It’s incomprehensible to normal folk. And I think we all agree that no one, in any entertainment field, should have his or her own gross national product.

That said, those numbers -- and higher -- are the reality in Major League Baseball. So let’s put aside the "no ballplayer's worth millions" argument, because in this day and age that’s what they get paid. Whether you like it or not.

The Orioles have never agreed to a contract larger than the six-year, $72 million deal they gave Miguel Tejada in 2003. I don’t know that Markakis is looking for more than that, but it’s probably not too far off.

I want to know what you think is the right price for the 25-year-old right fielder. He is the club’s best player, top marketing tool and most stable young building block. He probably isn’t near his peak and would be giving up three years or more of free agency in exchange for long-term security in an Orioles uniform.

He is seemingly healthy and loves to play the game, but you can’t discount that injuries could happen to him -- like anyone else.

Keep in mind Markakis enters his first year of arbitration as one of the best right fielders in baseball. He made $455,000 this season, but will get millions in arbitration this February -- a rough guess, and that’s all this is -- is $4 million or so for 2009.

For comparison’s sake, here’s a list of some young, promising hitters who have agreed to extensions since 2006. Some play different positions from Markakis and others were at different levels in service time when they agreed to deals. It’s impossible to pinpoint a perfect comparison, but this may give you an idea of potential market worth. (All ages are as of the end of this calendar year.)

New York Mets shortstop Jose Reyes, 25, signed a four-year, $23 million deal in 2006.

Mets third baseman David Wright, 26, signed a six-year, $55 million deal in 2006.

Cleveland Indians center fielder Grady Sizemore, 26, signed a six-year, $23.5 million deal in 2006.

Philadelphia Phillies second baseman Chase Utley, 30, signed a seven-year, $85 million deal in 2007.

Toronto Blue Jays right fielder Alex Rios, 27, signed a seven-year, $70 million deal in 2008.

Florida Marlins shortstop Hanley Ramirez, 24, signed a six-year, $70 million deal in 2008.

Detroit Tigers first baseman Miguel Cabrera, 25, signed an eight-year, $152 million deal in 2008.

Now you are on the spot.

What is your top value for Markakis? What should the Orioles offer and then feel confident they did their best if he doesn’t accept? I’d say length of the deal is probably in the five- to seven-year range, so go with six years. How much dough is right for a six-year deal for Nick?

Daily Think Special: How much is just right for Markakis?

Comments

I'd give him 5 years/60 million. But the way talks are going - slow - will have to give him more and a no trade clause.

Markakis will be the best right fielder in baseball averaged over the next ten years, if he can be signed for Rios numbers, that would be a steal.

whatever it is ..do it noe 7 years for 77 million sounds good to me.

6 years - $65,000,000

I say 6 and 72 mill,somewhere in that neighborhood.He's our best most marketable player,and if we were to sign a Tex or even have Huff batting behind him all year,his numbers would just get better.

I don't know what the exact dollar and year amount is, but I do know this...if the O's screw this up it will be 100 times worse then if they didn't make a significant purposal to Tex...Let's say 5 years, 50 million. That puts him at 30 and gives a great barometer as to where he is and if he is everything us O's fans truly hope he is.

$80 million over eight years

$75 M over 5 years is the starting point, Dan. Go as high as $100 M, because at the end of 5 years, Nick will look like a bargain with the escalation in salaries.

If Alex Rios got 7 and 70, and many of the "experts" believe that Markakis is better than Rios, it stands to reason that Markakis deserves better money than $10 million a year (that is as hard to type as hard as it is to comprehend). I say 6 years for $72 million should do it for Markakis. It is fair in today's market and gets him under the Orioles control until 2015.

A seven year $77 million dollar deal!

Well, the Cabrera contract borders on insanity. Six years - $60M. I believe that would get it done. Markakis would have some pocket change and the Orioles would get a bargain for their best player.

If he would get, say $10 million in 2 years of arbitration, I would try to sign him to a 5 year deal with an option year at an annual average of $12 million per year. The Tejada deal was for a superstar with a great durability background and proven numbers.

6/60

It makes too much sense. It's on par with the Rios contract. It basically overpays him for the first three years (while he's under club control) and probably underpays him for the last 3 (when he would probably make more than 10/yr in the Free Agent market)

Plus it's a nice round number. What more could you want?

Go as high as 6/66 if you need to.

Top value for a six year deal? I'd go up as high as 80 million. Now that's not were I'd start but that would be my ceiling. If that doesn't get him to sign an extension than he probably has no real interest in staying with the O's.

The idiot lawyer/owner and his Duke educated son had a chance last year to lock up Nick for much less. Penny wise and pound foolish.

7/$70 is what he will ask for. If little Napoleon won't throw the big dollars at one of his own ( a fellow Greek), we're doomed.

Heck, give his agent a blank contract and tell him to fill in the amount for a 7 year deal.

I'd ask him, "Nick, how much do you want?" Then when he gave me an amount, I'd open my desk drawer, take out the company checkbook and write that check. I don't care how much he asks for, he's worth every penny. Do you think any other team in the league wouldn't take this kid and pay him respectably? The O's slow, deliberate negotiating ploys absolutely kill me!!

There's no rush to sign him. Player salaries appear to be undergoing a downward correction and that may continue through next year. There's no harm in going to arbitration this year and talking afterward. The fan base should not pressure the Orioles to sign Markakis long-term, at least until 2010. Remember Tejada -- as great a signing as it seemed at the time and for the first two seasons, it eventually became an albatross. Six-year contracts are often regretted by the team, rarely if ever by the player.

7yrs for 80mil

I agree Tim Puff, why does the organization have to be so slow? If he was with the red sox he would have been locked up before last season. I wonder why it's hard for us to get free agents?

Totally love that you maintained AP Style in the blog post: "Fifty million, 60 million, 70 million." That's the sign of a dedicated writer.

In response to the topic, $10 a year is definitely fair given his potential and his numbers to date.

Don't you think he can use the Orioles situation against them? He knows he's the only young top shelf talent the team has. I think you'll have to overpay to keep him in town. Either way he knows he's going to make a few million through arbitration until 2011. If the front office doesn't overpay he'll be lost after 2011. That being said they will probably have to be in the $90 million range for six years.

The O's are in a bad position. 11 years of overpaying for retreads has set the bar high for young future talent

Nick has shown his improvement and work ethic.Most think his talent has yet to be unbundled.

So we pay for now and the future. 6 fot $80 with a top side at 5 of $20 and the 6th is an option at the team buy out of $5

A fair starting point for the Orioles is 6 yrs/$60M. A very reasonable offer that nobody could call cheap would be 6 yrs/$66M. A truly reasonable offer with a better than 50/50 chance to get it done (me thinking) would be 6 yrs/$72M. If it were me, I'd offer the 6-66 and see what happens.

Given that Markakis is not only our best young player, the cornerstone of our franchise, I would start somewhere between the kind of deal that David Wright got and upwards of what Chase Utley received.

Markakis has all the tools so a 7 Year 74 Million Dollar contract wouldn't be out of the question or unfair. He would be worth every penny and we'd likely end up with a bargain towards the end of the deal.

10years $10,000,000 and I'll take it. Wait this isn't about me?.....6 years $60 mill. sounds good.

I think Nick is the kind of player you want in your Organization for their entire career. With that said, you want him to retire as an Oriole. I would offer a 7 year deal for 85 million. Then I would even put a 3 year option which gives the O's the option to keep him for longer. There is always a risk for injury, but being a RF, you have limited risk. Pitchers never should be offered a long term deal like that. They can end their career shortly after signing a big contract. Nick has not peaked yet as a player and has even more upside. His power numbers have improved every season. He has one of the strongest arms in the league and always seems to be in the league leaders for OF assits, which is very difficult to do on a consistent basis.

It's probably going to take at least $60M over six years to get it done. That's actually more like a reasonable starting point to show that the Orioles are serious about doing right by Markakis. But that's a fair point for both sides, really. At the end of the contract Markakis would be 31 and still in his prime, able to sign another long term lucrative deal. In the meantime it gives him a locked in deal. Let's face it, this first year of arbitration eligibility is the year that he first gets the big payday that should be able to set him for life. Put it this way - his next year's salary will be more than I am going to make in my lifetime, even after paying his agent and the higher marginal tax rate.

The whole point is to avoid generating the hard feelings while going through the arbitration process so that there is a realistic chance to keep the player beyond the arbitration years. I'd start the negotiations at that point, work on how to structure the amount each year, be prepared to go to as much as 6yr/$72M if necessary. But if it takes more than that, then just do the arbitration process for a year or two and take it as it comes.

Markakis is my favorite Oriole and I think he deserves as much money as he wants since he is a 5 tool player. However, if I were MacPhail, I would try to sign him for 6 years and $50 million and then build in somewhat easy to obtain incentives such as plate appearances, or top 5 finish in rbi. Maybe also include incentive clauses for winning a gold glove, MVP, making the all-star team, silver slugger, etc. With some attainable incentives, he raises his annual salary a bit. I'd also throw in a no-trade clause except for the teams he chooses. That way, you get him relatively cheap ($8 million+/year) and you aren't on the hook for a ton of money if he gets injured or pulls a Vernon Wells (big contract, no performance after signing big contract). Additionally, you give him job security, plus an escape clause if he wants out of town. When the contract is over, he has only 2-3 more prime seasons so you can let him walk at that point if you choose.

Dustin Pedroia just signed a 6-year $40.5 million extension.

the question is not what is he worth to the orioles, but to the yankess and red sox who both have aging right fielders.

I'd say 6 years @ $66M - but if it takes a bit more the Orioles should do it as they need Markakis for a lot more than his on-the-field skills. So, if it makes anyone feel better, consider anyhting paid extra as his "personal services" bonus. The Orioles need that good PR.

Pedroia just got 6 yrs/$40.5M. One of those years is year #3, for which the O's paid Markakis $500K. Let's say MacPhail uses this contract as a benchmark. You would give Markakis $40M for his first five years, matching Pedroia for service years 4 thru 8, then tacking on ?$16M? for the sixth year? Does it sound like Pedroia settled low? If this contract is a benchmark, you would offer Markakis $56M maybe for six years.

I don't care what it takes to sign him. But if this team wants to project a better image to the fans and prospective free agents, they had better learn to pull the trigger faster and offer fair money. Why would a top player sign with Baltimore if they knew every contract would be like pulling teeth.

Both Roberts and Markakis should have been wrapped up last year. How can the front office say they are building through our minor league when they let the two best position players developed in recent years dangle out there.

Very top offer today:

6YRS/77M. 12.8M/YR.
or
5YRS/65M (6th yr vests or can be bought). 13M/YR.

7 years 60 million. Should be enough and it covers a long period of time. He gets over 8mil a year right now which is good for him and the Orioles get to keep him at 8mil a year for the next 7 years no matter how great he becomes which is good for them.

6 years - 57 million. seems quite fair to me, especially after looking at what Dustin Pedroia just got.

I'd go 6 years at the tune of $65 million.

Markakis 7yrs 60mil, Roberts, 5yrs 35mil, Big Tex 10yrs 180mil and unlimited supply of Marylands finest steamed crabs for the length of his contract.

I would give him SIX TRILLION DOLLARS, the majority stake in three Icelandic banks and ENDLESS BOOGMEAT!!!!

Look, you HAVE to pay the man. He's stuck around here and not complained about being on a terrible team. The O's have the potential of having a great outfield and Markakis should be part of that. You sit him down, ask him what he wants, and add $5 million to that because he is THAT important to this organization.

5 years-55 million with two options years at 14 mil then 16 mil with 500,000 buyouts. Total Package-7years-85million, with a limited no trade clause. He will me in his peak for the duration if not most of it, and, save for injuries, will be a steal at that price.

I really do not think that anyone is taking into consideration that there are fewer people working, many companies are going out of business, sponsorship dollars are hard to come by, and maybe, just maybe, some professional sports teams may not be around. That said, and the fact that one of the most beautiful baseball parks in the country, Camden Yards, cannot fill up except when the out-of-town fans come, where the heck is the money that everyone wants to spend coming from? If you cannot afford to buy a ticket to the ball park how can you even fathom paying the amounts being thrown around. Just like the auto-workers, some athletes are going to come to the conclusion that having a job is better than asking for the moon. If the poor fellows cannot get along on $5 million a year and save a couple of bucks for the days when he will not be playing ball then he is an idiot. Most of us get along on less than 1% of that.

You think MASN is having trouble selling add space now? I got thirty some years worth of Orioles memorabilia I'll be selling cheap (everything but the signed by Brooks Norman Rockwell print) if they don't sign this guy.

Length is more important than money. Since the kid is ours for the next three years anyway, it has to be long enough to make the money worthwhile. If we only get him for an extra two years out of the deal, what's the point?

So make it $80M/10 years and be done with it. And do it tomorrow.

Well, let's see now. The Red Sox just gave Justin Pedroia less than 7 mil a year for 6 years.......and he has a rookie of the year and MVP award in his first two years. And the guy is a complete spark plug for that team. So what is Markakis seeking? In my humble opinion it just took a hit with that "reasonable" contract. How about 6 years and 40mil? Seems about right. I've got a feeling he's seeking alot more than that. Of course, there is that obvious advantage of playing for a team that actually gets things done and perhaps that's why Pedroia gave the Sox a "deal".

Yes but the Red Sox were only buying out 2 years of Pedroia's free agency. Pedroia was already under control for the next 4 years for practically pennies. So the deal is in fact very generous. Pedroia's deal doesn't hurt Markakis.

Three years, $61 million

First of all oldetoys, its Dustin Pedroia not Justin but beyond the point....give him a contract that is similar to the one signed by the Brewers' Ryan Braun. They are both young extremely talented outfielders who, as Milwaukee correctly did, deserve to be signed into a long term contract

8 years $65 million

Worry not, my fellow fans, no matter how much time seems to elapse.
The Orioles will NEVER let this one get away.
He's Greek, folks.

7 years at $80 million, if he passes on that then he really doesn't want to be here....I think he'd sign for that in a heartbeat.

7 years $83 million but really Id give him what ever he wants so he can be a long time oriole

Get it done, six years $70 million

8 years at 96 million, that $12 million per year - and it would carry him through until he was 33. If you assumed an average increase at arbitration, and factored that in over his remaining three years, I'd guess he'd get $21 million over the next three years. Under the new contract, he'd get $36 million - and we'd get get 5 years at $12 million beyond that. I'd then include a team option for two years at $16 million per year.

At least we do not have to worry about Greene and Renteria, looks like the Cards are locking a trade in for Greene and the Giants are signing Renteria also today. The O's will try to break there record year of 6 different shortstops!

I still say that Mr. Angelos is waiting for a Patriarchal Discount (PD) to go with the Hometown Discount (HD). Nick is buying a home in the area so Mr. Angelos is thinking I can lock this young man up for less.

Lawyers are Lawyers, always looking for an angle.

As for how much to sign him for, didn’t the Tampa Bay Rays sign Evan Longoria to a long term multi million dollar deal? He didn’t even play a full season when he signed: his current deal is 08:$0.5M, 09:$0.55M, 10:$0.95M, 11:$2M, 12:$4.5M, 13:$6M, 14:$7.5M club option ($3M buyout), 15:$11M club option, 16:$11.5M club option. 2014 and 2015 are club option years. That is 39.5 million over 9 years. Throw away 2008 salary and it is 39 million over 8 years with 22.5 million as a club option. See http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/

This sounds fair.

All the crap about injuries is simply the cost of doing business, unless you’re looking at signing a soon to be overpaid from Monkton. Yeah lets sign him – his ride to and from work will be shorter. Hey maybe he would take less because he would be saving a bunch on gas!

Personally I think that 8 years at 50 – 55 million would be a good deal. Don’t forget that Adam Jones is watching this also. What are the Orioles going to do if Adam Jones becomes as good as or a better player that Markakis? Either the Orioles are going to step up and pay for the young players or we can keep losing games.

For me I will not be attending any games again this year unless they prove to me that the organization is willing to field a winner. I only ask for POSITIVE steps toward that goal. Signing Markakis to a long term contract is one of those steps.

Yasou!

Nick (and Adam Jones) are invaluable to the future of the Orioles. They will be the draw for years to come.

Put a dollar figure on our right fielder: 6 years, $70 million.

Add in great bonuses for winning a Gold Glove, going to the All-Star game, MVP, Silver Slugger and a no-trade or limited no-trade clause (maybe one that can be converted to a total no-trade after 3 or 4 years based on performance over that time period) and I think both parties could walk away happy AND make a few happy fans as well.

They have to sign him no matter what the cost. He needs to be the face of the franchise for at least five years, maybe more. If they're willing to go 5/50 (which seems reasonable), why not go to 5/75 or 6/100? Think about it: would you rather have Markakis or some middle-of-the-road right fielder and someone like Trachsel? Rarely do you regret paying an improving 25-year-old who can play a large amount of money. More often you regret paying a mid-level amount of money to a couple of boringly mediocre veterans.

Agree Nick is good and worth whatever. Want to point out the money available to pay may become less going forward as the US is going to be in financial trouble for a number of years. Ad revenue will fall (note NASCAR already in trouble) and folks will be buying a lot fewer outrageously priced stadium food / drinks and be attending fewer games at the current ticket price. Pro athletes' salaries have been in a bubble like many other things. They will regress to the mean also.

6 for 66 with a player option for 14 million for 2015. that would be 7/80. That is just above Rios and right under Hanley. If that is far from what the O's are thinking, then we are all doomed for another 25 years of defeat because they are just plain out of touch.

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About Dan Connolly
An Irish Catholic who grew up in Parkville (technically Baynesville, the final stop on the No. 3 bus) while the Orioles were rock stars and the Colts were stinking and then leaving, Dan Connolly couldn’t avoid certain inevitabilities. He was destined to be an altar boy, love baseball, and eventually frequent Charm City’s many watering holes. To his saintly mother’s chagrin, he gave up altar serving at age 13. He’s been a journalist for 17 years, including the last eight covering the Orioles/baseball, and is in his fourth season as The Baltimore Sun's national baseball writer. And now that he’s sneaking up on 40 with a wife and three young kids, his bar-hopping days are long over.

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