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June 25, 2009

A look ahead to Terps hoops season

Sure, it's 90 degrees out. But what is stopping us from looking ahead for a moment to the hoops season? Absolutely nothing. So let's proceed.

What do you think of Gary Williams' recent tweet? The one where he said: "With Greivis (Vasquez) back and our 09' class and the rest of our team improving every day, I truly believe we have the chance to be top 25 next year."

Here's my take:

Maryland could be a top 25 team, but some things would need to happen.

Greivis coming back is welcome news for Maryland, but it still needs more offense. The Terps certainly hustle on defense -- trapping and pressing and clogging the lane. But what happens when they get into a shootout such as when North Carolina hit 11 of its first 14 three-point attempts to begin a 108-91 victory in Chapel Hill?

Maryland needs more scoring options. Sean Mosley averaged 5.3 points per game and Adrian Bowie averaged 9.0. The Terps need more scoring from these backcourt guys not named "Vasquez." Note: an improving Eric Hayes averaged 10.3 points.

I'm looking at Mosley and Bowie -- and Landon Milbourne-- as sources of more scoring. I think the Terps need to have at least two of these three players pick it up offensively.

And it could well happen. Mosley, a freshman, is such a hard worker and does other things so well, particularly rebound. But he was 5-for-21 on threes (23.8 percent). We've all seen players make big strides once their freshmen season is behind them.

Bowie, so speedy to the basket, can also improve his outside game. He was 13 of 58 on threes (22.4 percent).

But I see Milbourne as the key. He was Maryland's second-leading scorer, behind Vasquez, at 11.4 points per game. But he frequently got beat up playing out of position against taller opponents.

Milbourne should benefit from increased maturity, confidence and -- more important -- from the arrival of inside guys Jordan Williams of Torrington, Conn., and James Padgett of Brooklyn, N.Y.

At least some of Milbourne's inside burden will be lifted if Williams, who told me he is almost 6 feet 10, and Padgett, who is 6-9, can contribute immediately.

The overachieving Terps averaged 69.8 points per game in conference play last season. I think they can do better, and I think they'll need to.

Posted by Jeff Barker at 7:00 AM | | Comments (27)
Categories: Terps basketball
        

Comments

For years, the terp trademark has been they NEVER quit, often cutting deficits with tough D and transition hoops. If the new big kids can contribute something right away, that could lead to higher % 2 and 3 point shots that wouldn't take a disproportiate amount of energy to get.Combine that with their usual energy and you have the makings of a high scoring, good defending team.

I see them as a top 25 team if they can get some more scoring as you point out - that is the key. Last year was a special type of team as they really meshed down the stretch. If they get anything from a big - be it Burney, Williams or Padgett and some balanced scoring from either Bowie and Mosley who missed some easy shots last year - the team will increase thier PPG avg. be in the top 25 all year long. Milbourne will break out this year and don't forget about Tucker. I really think we will see some improvement from last year. I hope the chemistry carries over - I feel this is why they stopped pursuing Lance as to not mess with the chemistry and having GV come back. I like the prospects for this team and can't wait for the season to start.

Don't forget the instant offense that "Born Ready" will bring! j/k

I think Andy Katz has the Terps #17 in his pre-season rankings. I believe he thinks Williams and Padgett will shore up the inside enough that the Terps can play with anyone.

Also, what about Tucker? I thought he showed enough offensive potential that he should get some more PT. Was he in the doghouse for some reason?

And don't forget Kim - he should be much better this year. If Williams & Padgett are as advertised, I really like this team.

The number of points a team scores, by itself, tells you nothing about how efficiently they score, or how good they are offensively. It tells you something about the average TEMPO of their games. I don't care if Maryland scores 69 points a game, 62 points a game or 85 points a game. I do care about how efficient they are on the offensive end though, and I agree that Milbourne and Moseley are linchpins.

What about Tucker. He shows so much energy, but he is aleays looking over at the bench to see if Gary is replacing him. He needs to be given a longer leash. i am always looking at the bench as spectator to see if he is being released. Not a good way to exist.

The Newbies.
Williams and Padgett need to make their presence know - I'm talking solid; not necessarily exceptional. I'll take court-smarts, hustle and effort while the learning curve takes place. Plaese just dont stand there looking dumb-founded whatever you do.

Fans need to remember where these two rank compared to other bigs who will be attending other ACC schools. Give these two time. If they arrive at a solid playing level ahead of schedule - all the better - but I'm not going to put unrealistic expectations on either of them.

The Dino Factor:
Jeff - you failed to mention Dino. I for one think Dino may be a bigger inside presence than the two newbies. Last years experience will go a long way in developing Dinos confidence. He showed great effort, pronmise and development. I'm not talking All-ACC or 10-15 points a game - I'm talking Dino just being Dino and doing whatever he can to be consistent solid contributor. Stay grounded and play within himself. Maybe develop Neal-like court smarts attributes.

We'll miss Dave Neal.
More than soem think. His court smarts have to be replaced. The kid may not have had the natural talent you think of when it comes to the basketball court, but he was a leader, a warrior, and as court smart as anyone.

And yes - losing Jerome Burney to injury is a killer. So much potential. We certainly could have used a healthy JB last year as well as this coming year. Jeff - any good news about the hope that Jerome might be able to play again? Last I heard awhile ago wasnt very promising ...maybe theres hope?


Its Landon Time:
The development and play of the big 3 - if good - will allow Landon to be more like a 3 than a 4 - which is good. Open short jumpers. Slashing and driving to the basket. Contributing on the boards. Work the ball in and out, set screens, and give the man open short jumpers. Landon had some impressive games last year and unfortunately also got into foul trouble early and disappeared a few times in ket games. I'm looking for cosistent senior play and leadership from LM. Its his turn.

Mosely, Bowie, and Tucker. We know they all need to improve their outside shooting. Stretch the court, create openings. All three have something valuable to contribute. Mosely's a scrapper. Bowies a driver. Tucker - when hot - is a shooter. You'll probably continue to see all in varied role-playing positions again this season. This isnt a slam at any of them becuase any of them - while regularily seeing relatively fewer minutes than starters - has the ability to play starter minutes and drop in 20+ points if they get hot. But none I think can sustain it on an every game basis.

If its about "TEAM" and not self, then all understand that playing their roles is more important than anything. Wish some fans could learn to understand this too! I'm sure all are working on indivisual weaknesses and improving overall skills during the off-season.

Personally I think Mosely has the potential to blow up in a good way big time as a Soph. He has so many skills and is the constant hustler. He was a good shooter in HS, no? All-time state scoring leader...had to be a good shooter. His touch will improve this year - count on it. He now has last year under his belt as well as that early ankle injury behind him. Remember you read it here first :)

The Eric Hayes factor:
Not exactly your typical full-time starter but a major contributor. Court smart, great assist man who has the best outside shot of anyone on the team. Ice like personality. But deep inside you know his guts are churning. No, he's not Steve Blake but who is or ever will be. Trying to live up to fan comparisons and unrealistic expectations had to have hurt for awhile but I think GW finally found the role best suited for Eric's talents. Time for those fans who still havent come to accept and appreciate Eric for who he is and his contributions to Maryland basketball to take another look.

Addition by subtraction factor.
While I liked Beaxton Dupree and Stev Goins, one never lived up to the expectations (Brax) and the other (Goins) never played. So while we never got to see if either could in the end be a contributor, with both places on the roster now filled by hopefully hard-working, healthy, potentially good incoming freshman prospects its a plus for the team. I hope both Brax and Steve find hapiness and success at their new schools.

The Wild Card factor.
JSK and Tucker. Kim got here a year ahead of schedule. A big adjustment not only to level of play but culturally and generally with school. Lets see what happens now that he's hopefully settled and can focus completely on Bball. Lets see that 3ball fly!
Cliff - like Bowie, Mosely and Hayes has streaky ability. Hopefuly he can accept a role-playing position on this team and be a positive contributor.

Bottom line:
GV will again run the show. Glad he's back. Hope he's been soaking in as much off-season experience as he can...learning, growing, and improving through all of the NBA pre-draft camps. Key for me is his continued maturity and leadership. Better shot selection and really trusting teammates - not having to be the only option - when its crunch time. Leadership doesnt mean having to do it all yourself .

No matter what, GW, GV, and this whole team will be fun to watch, and it will never be boring.

GO TERPS!
A Top 25 team, competing again in the top of the ACC, and the Sweet 16 are not unrealistic goals.

Agree completely that Tucker is the wild card. He's got the game if he can get his mind right. Milbourne, on the other hand, seems to me lacking in the skills of a 3. Can he put it on the floor and beat someone to the lane? To me, he's more like a 4, with baseline and midrange jumpers, in a 3 body. We shall see. And hopefully Burney gets healthy because they need him defensively.

Without Born Ready they definitely look like a top 5 ACC team and a Top 25 team nationally. Cliff Tucker and Mosley will pick up the perimeter scoring and don't forget the freshmen that can actually give us a semblance of an inside scoring game.

I agree 100%. I've been saying for months now Milbourne is the key to next year. Moving back to his natural SF position should give him the freedom in his senior year to have a real break out season and be the consistent #2 guy behind Greivous (especially if the LS recruitment really is over?). I look for Dino Gregory Jr. to use his experience and tenacity to beat out Padgett at PF. My projected starting 5:
C- Jordan Williams
PF- Dino Gregory Jr.
SF- Landon Milbourne
SG- Sean Mosley
PG- Greivous Vasquez

With those 5 and guys like Bowie, Tucker, Padgett, Hayes, and maybe Kim and Goins off the bench the Terps should be a top 25 team this year. And they shouldn't be sweating out NCAA selection come March. Joe Lunardi of ESPN currently has them at an 8 seed but I think it could be higher for sure.

I usually start the season as a bit of a skeptic, but I have to say, I'm feeling pretty confident that the Terps will be modestly under-rated by the prognosticators going into 2009. With so many ACC starters leaving, the ground seems pretty fertile for Terp run at the top of the conference. How many teams in college basketball history have made it to the second round of the NCAA tourney, returned 8 of their top 9 players (not to mention adding two quality recruits) and NOT been a Top 25 team the following year. I'm guessing there are a few examples, but not many.

See no sure starters in this team except Greivous and Landon in the start of season.

Consistency and play defense earn playing minutes from Gary, which is Tucker yet to show from game to game last season. Or you going to be pull very often. Gary did that to Juan Dixon in his first season, too.
Goins is not gone yet, and with Kim, will compete with the two new big men. Players are not fashion clothes -this season is definitely better than the one just passed. And please don't dismiss Jordan W. as some of you did to Dupree if he doesn't turn out to be a start immediately. Neal might be a good example as patience pays.

Finally, Gary will have the luxury to play more players in earlier season this year to help building up the confidence of his young players, where as last year he had to win earlier and no time for experiments due to lack of sure big men and facing strong ACC conference teams.
This year, Terps are one of the stronger teams in ACC. Expect Gary to rest the upper classmen more and mix in the young guys in non-conference games, and we will see who will emerge as the other factors.


defence is the key! They cannot guard against the 3 the way they currently play. It must improve. Memphis torched them in the tourney. Duke and Carolina also made them pay.

I see MD starting five this season as
PG: Hayes
SG: GV
SF: Landon M
PF: Dino G
C: Jordan Williams

With the Backups
PG: Bowie
SG: Mosely
SF: Tucker, Kim
PF: Padgett,
C: Burney if healthy, Goins
other than maybe an injury three of the players on the backup list can start at anytime, and MD fans know that the players you start the season with may not be the ones we finish with.

I would sit Dino Gregory down this summer and let him watch tape after tape of Derrick Lewis. Shot blocking aside, these two have similar bodies. Let Dino see how Derrick managed his game going against bigger, heavier centers everytime out.

Apr 30 internet "article" has Goins leaving. http://turtle-soup.com/wp/2009/04/30/steve-goins-to-leave-terps/

May 20 internet "article" has Goins staying. http://terptalk.com/2009/05/19/steve-goins-decides-to-remain-at-maryland/


Not sure how accurate some of these things are...

I liked the little I saw of Goins early before he got hurt. Could be a four year 'project' with a better upside than anyone thinks? Not sure but if he wants to stay and work harder, works for me.

Let "Born Ready" go already. Dont want him, his self promoting self-absorbed ego/'tude or his "handlers".

I like the idea that we're strong and capable deep into the bench...it will take the entire team to do well...creates and promotes good team spirit as opposed to reliance on one individual.

John,

They could not guard the 3s last season because they had to help out/double team the post all season long due to they did have much of size inside. That probably won't be the case this year.

bowie, mosely, and tucker are each better than hayes....if he is starting during acc season then hof gary is desperate for 3 pt shooting

the terps still aren't real big this year, but somewhat bigger. Hopefully that will help them with their biggest weakness---rebounding. A little fundamental positioning by everyone will help too. They need to shore up the boards--so many 2nd and 3rd shots by the other teams while our guys stood still---get an @$$ on somebody and keep em out!! Solid rebounding= possesion of the ball=opportunities to score--it's that simple--play smarter.

J.B.,

What is the scoop on Kyrie Irving? I know you said this is a long shot, but I believe we are closer than most people think in signing this guy. It just make sense in a lot of ways for him to come to MD versus the other schools in the running. This is also the type of recruit we usually do a better job at landing since he is not from our hometown and Jersey guys like to come to UMD due to proximity.

Also, have we offered Jones a scholly yet? I know Scout shows we have not but that does not mean anything. Scout does not even have us recruiting Parker at this point.

We are due for some big news soon!

Come on Irving, Smith, Parker, Harris, and Coleman. We want you as a Terp!!!

harry-
the terps are bigger as the frontcourt guys with beef and size and beef are actually going to see floor time this year. no 2 minute stints like braxton dupree put up.

just having williams and padgett in the rotation makes them a much better team. hopefully williams AND padgett will make the starting rotation with gregory and burney coming off the bench to provide stability. unfortunately losing dave neal takes alot away from the team's on-court intelligence. vasquez has to surrender the ball far more frequently if the team is going to succeed, even if this teammates don't make their shots. they will get used to scoring if they get used to the 'opportunity to score'. that wasn't afforded last year as vasquez almost phased out everyone except neal who as a senior knew when to go after his own shot.

milbourne is the key player in my opinion same as he was last year. he was always tasked with sticking the teams most athletic front court scorer, while obligated to defend everyone else and still find time, energy and ways to score. coach williams needs to make milbourne an offensive focal point to get him going early. his speed, size and length make him more NBA material than vasquez. he needs a MINIMUM of 14 shots PER game. he will get many more second chance shots with the new front court addidtions, but he will lose several of the put-back buckets he would get from being the only man down low. the terps will benefit from playing more team philosophy or just giving milbourne and the two new big men the 'green-light' to shoot. same goes for mosely. just give him the green light.

overall i DO NOT pick the terps as top 5 in the ACC simply because so many other teams had established bigs before the season ended, then picked up loads of top 100 talent to further beef up their front court. unless milbourne turns ACC superstar and padgett and williams turn 'joe smith 2010' i think its going to be another barely scrape just to get near the tournament type season. good luck terps.

I see Regan committed to VA.

Terps is going to be the top three of ACC this year because 1) they have three seniors who've improved each year during the past three seasons; 2) good team chemistry last season; and 3) players actually listen to their coaches. Teams are going to fear the turtle again.

I like the Terps prospects this fall. The team chemistry was coming on at the end of the year. Lost Neal, picked up Williams and Padgett. Its a shame Neal could not have been healthy those 2 years. He will be missed. But I agree with what a previous poster wrote, there is little quit in GWs teams. I thought the turning point last season was, and you may blast me for saying it, but the game AT UNC. They were getting pummeled, but they kept after them until the final buzzer. I think that was when I knew, they keep playing with that intensity, they will win some games. I think this team will be much more complete.

I tend to be a Terps optimist, but I see a broad spectrum of possibilities coming this year. With the departures at Duke and UNC, there is vulnerability at the top of the ACC. Miami & FSU are without their leading scorers in McClinton & Douglas and Wake Forest is depleted by the draft. If experience is what it takes to win the ACC, Maryland may be at the top of the class.

Unfortunately, programs like Duke & Carolina re-load as quickly as Georgia Tech nabs McDonalds All-Americans. For this team to be successful, someone needs to get a consistent outside shot. Neal was the glue for last year's run. If Milbourne doesn't step up in big games, it won't matter that Greivis returns. Dino will be a spark down low and hopefully Padgett & Williams will learn quickly.

It's not too optimistic to think this team could be dancing into the elite 8 if players finally buy into their roles like the teams of 1998-2003.

space--

i agree--you apparently had more time than i did to spell it out specifically--still, i think there are certain fundamentals (like boxing out, and/or getting a rebound, instead of all 5 of them starting the fastbreak) the Terps can focus on to be much more effective. Yeah, a mature Vasquez is an oxymoron...but the guy has the potential and talent to be one of Md's best ever, and make his teammates much better in the process...prove me wrong, Grevious, please! Not being up on the rosters of the other ACC teams, I won't predict Md's placing, but I do know after watching Gary all these years, they'll be better than picked just on the strength of his intensity...Go Terps!

very interesting posts. I agree w/ the rotation shown above with Hayes as starter, but it would be as SG not PG. Hayes finished the season very strong, showing an ability to drive relentlessly for his own shot, especially in last few moments against State. Most people would probably assume Mosely as starter. Will be interesting. Regardless of that i think the key to the season is getting minutes from Burney. Williams, Padgett and Gregory won't combine for 80 minutes a game, so its crucial to have a healthy Burney; otherwise Milbourne will be right back at the 4 position at least some of the time. Gregory does remind of Derrick Lewis. I had never thought of that, but its spot on.

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About Jeff Barker
Tracking the TerpsJeff Barker has been a Baltimore Sun sports writer since 2004, handling stories and projects including Terrapins basketball, the NFL, sports economics, congressional steroids hearings and youth coaches who run afoul of the law. Before that, he covered news -- including the 2002 Beltway sniper attacks -- and politics for The Baltimore Sun, the Washington bureau of The Arizona Republic and The Associated Press.

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