Must win?
An early December game against a non-conference opponent is certainly not a must-win situation for any team, but tonight's matchup against Michigan at Comcast Center is very important for Maryland's psyche as well as for not losing any more of its seemingly dwindling fan base.
I watched some of last night's Duke-Purdue game and was struck by the atmosphere at Mackey Arena. It had the feel of a big game, between a pair of top 10 teams. I will be curious to see if there's a sellout in College Park between a pair of teams expected to finish in the second division of their respective conferences.
The Terps and Wolverines had similarly dire predictions made about them going into the season, both have beaten top 5 opponents (Michigan upset UCLA, Maryland over Michigan State, and both have been outclassed by better teams (Michigan by Duke, Maryland by Gonzaga and Georgetown).
Matchups shouldn't be a problem for the Terps tonight since Michigan's top scorer, Manny Harris, is a 6-5 wing player and its best inside player, DeShawn Sims, is about the same size as Braxton Dupree. The Wolverines are not voracious rebounders, and don't shoot particularly well -- making under 29 percent on threes.
The other curiosity I have with tonight is whether Gary Williams, who is 9-3 in these ACC/Big Ten Challenge matchups and 4-0 at home, will change his starting lineup again. There are any number of possibilities, but I think switching things up after the debacle against the Hoyas could get the message to his players that no positions are safe.
It's only early December, but somehow tonight's game -- one of the few against teams from bigger conferences until the Terps hit the ACC -- seems to have long-reaching ramifications.
Is that a reach?
Comments
The only MUST win was World War II. And we won it on the road!"
-Marv Levy
Posted by: mclean | December 3, 2008 2:29 PM
yes that is a reach. mich hasn't been good in seeveral yrs so losing to them won't be good. i don't think with this md team there will be a must game because i don't think they have a chance of going to the ncaa's. if your team doesn't rebound, doesn't shot very well and isn't athletic enough to play a constant pressure defensive style you won't win many games. i hope i'm wrong about them but early indications are they are a bad team. prove me wrong terps!
Posted by: fkterp | December 3, 2008 3:14 PM
Good article Don. Must win, maybe. Very, very important....absolutely. A win against Michigan State and Michigan would be great if we could then close out the rest of our non conference schedule, which I admit will be not be easy by any means.
Posted by: Garrett | December 3, 2008 3:26 PM
Yes! This is a must game, if we are to get into the NIT.
Posted by: cmr | December 3, 2008 3:36 PM
Not quite a must-win but its huge. Maryland has a weak non-conference schedule (although a few opponents may be tough to beat) so they really need this one to boost their RPI. If Maryland wants to be playing in a real tournament in March, they need to win tonight. Otherwise, it looks like another NIT year early on.
Posted by: Biz | December 3, 2008 4:47 PM
UMD must win 16 of these 19 games
12/3 Michigan
12/7 GW at Verizon
12/12 Delaware State
12/22 American
12/27 Byrant
12/30 Elon
1/3 Charlotte
1/7 Morgan State
1/10 GaTech (W)
1/14 @Miami (L)
1/17 @FSU (L)
1/20 UVA (W)
1/27 BC (W)
1/31 Miami (W)
2/8 @GaTech (W)
2/14 VaTech (W)
2/17 @Clemson (L)
3/1 @NCST (W)
3/7 @UVA (W)
These are the remaining 8 OOC games, and 11 conference games excluding UNC, Duke, and Wake.
They play 5 OOC teams that 'could' beat them - Michigan, GW, American, Charlotte, and Morgan.
MD has no excuse losing to any of them, and I do not expect that they will.
However, American still has the guards that beat MD last year, and almost beat Tenn in the NCAAT… Morgan has beat Marshall, lost by 1 to Manhattan, and lost by 8 to Mississippi.
Both have HC's with a lot of experience in Jones, and Bozeman… should either beat MD? No, of course not…… is it completely out of the realm of possibility? No, it is not.
Neither GW or Charlotte are anything special, but they are in the A10… and while the A10 is just a step above mid-major, those teams have the players to play with Major conference teams and will not be intimidated…
Obviously GW's players are very familiar with MD, spending a lot of time on the CP campus running with the Terps during the Summer…… Charlotte and Moxley have direct knowledge on Gary's system…
Again, in all 5 games MD should (and really has to) win… and while it is not out of the realm they could lose any of the five… the only semi-acceptable loss would be to GW on the neutral court.
I have MD beating GaTech, UVA, BC, Miami, VaTech at home for 5 wins… I have them going 3-3 vs GaTech, Miami (L), FSU (L), Clemson (L), NCST, UVA on the road…
That gets them to 8-3 with 5 games vs UNC, Duke, and Wake… all 3 home games are winnable… they did go 3-2 vs those 3 teams last year…
They go 8-0 in the remaining OOC, and 8-8 in Conference play, they are 20-10 heading to the ACCT.
The RPI will be strong because of the ACC, and having had played MSU, Gonzaga, and Georgetown.
MSU on a neutral court will be a strong victory.. The 5 conference wins at home will be solid, Michigan will be solid, the 3 conference road wins will be solid, and Vermont, American, and Morgan are all capable of winning their conferences (Am East, Patriot, MEAC)… not going to help, but not games that should pull your overall weight down either.
Getting blown out by Gonzaga, and G'town (even on a neutral court) will not help at all.
20-10 (8-8) in this scenario will have them on the bubble… a win in the ACCT will have them in.
A win over any of UNC, Duke, or Wake to get to 9-7 will also have MD in….
Posted by: Chris | December 3, 2008 5:02 PM
Changing the lineup again would be a good thing. It's pretty clear that we must get a big guy to step up. I don't know why Burney isn't getting more time. Toward the end of last year, he was getting minutes and contributing on the boards and defensively. This year, he has played very little.
Posted by: bob b. | December 3, 2008 5:19 PM
This is a joke, the MD game isn't even on TV. Can someone at The Sun please write an article about our local coverage. It's beyond pathetic we don't get EVERY football and basketball game. MASN sucks, CSN sucks and now ESPN sucks. They're showing the FSU-Northwestern game at 9:30 but we can't get our local game?!?!
Posted by: Nick | December 3, 2008 7:44 PM
I don't know if it is a must-win game but they need to do distinguish themselves in their non-conference schedule, any win during this period would be a good thing. Who knows what this team will do in ACC play so it's important to win as many in the non-conference part of the schedule. A loss tonight would show this maybe a real ugly year.
Posted by: Marcus | December 3, 2008 9:11 PM