I really don'tbelieve the terps deserve to be in the NCAA tournament. Take away the gimmy wins over much inferior teams and they have just about an even record. They would have to win the ACC tournament to even have a chance to make it.

No ACC team has ever been left home with a 9-7 record in ACC play and 20 wins. If Maryland wins its next two games, they will acheive 20 wins and a 9-7 mark in the ACC.

If I'm on the selection committee, the Terps don't get in unless they win the ACC Tournament. Too many bad losses and way too inconsistent.

On the plus side, we get another home game for the NIT! And now we can start McAlpin, since Gary is so intent on getting him meaningful minutes.

The ACC Finals? You have no idea at all of what you are talking about. The only way we need to get to the finals on sunday is if a truckload of upsets are taking place in the one bid conference tournaments. We just need to win the next three games...and do not get all hyper about it saying they havent won three in a row in a while. It's not like they are playing Duke or UNC...(as of 3.4.2008) its Virginia, NC State, and Va Tech. The only team MD has lost to is Va Tech...and both times they dominated the game. If you are thinking they can't win their next three you don't know anything about basketball.

And, F.Y.I.; every bracketologist has MD in every bracket that they put out.

Don,

Here is the issue. You are putting way to much emphasis on the RPI. It is flawed, and the committee realizes this. It will NOT be a determining factor on whether a team does or does not get in.

The other issue is that you appear to be looking at MD's resume in a vacuum. You cannot do that. You have to compare it to other teams near MD on the bubble. When looked at from that perspective, MD is in much better shape than your article suggested the other day.

Finally, you ask about the last time MD won 3 straight. The committee looks at your last 12 games. Should MD win their next 2 and lose in the ACCT quarterfinals, they would be 7-5 in their last 12, not great, but not bad for a team on the bubble.

If MD beat UVA and wins just 2 ACCT games, they are a 100% lock. If they win just one game in the ACCT, they will still have a 75% chance or better of getting in, depending on upsets in other conference tournaments.

Unfortunately, you are probably right. The only caveat is that there aren't any other at large bubble teams winning their way in either. This year's field appears weak and someone has to fill the spots. 20 wins may still be enough.
On the other hand, let's go win the ACC tourny and then we don't have to worry about the selection committee.

Don,

I believe you are 100% correct about the Terrapin bubble status. My successful son, who recently completed a detailed analysis of Melanesian economies that is likely to attract attention from the Nobel committees, took time out from his busy schedule to run one million simulations of the rest of the college basketball season including conference tournaments and he concluded the Terps must win 4.3 games to mathematically ensure a bid. I believe he is more credible than Internet airheads and their pals going nowhere who do not understand the tournament selection process. Thank you for laying it out for us.

-FT44

Don, You don't know poop !!! :-) just kidding.... when teans are just above, on, or just below the bubble like our Terps are (depending on who yah talk to) then it's SWAG for what the Terps have to do and what other teams may do that will effect our position within the selection committee. Like that crazy man in Oakland always says..."Just Win Baby" and the rest will take care of itself. Having said that, i don't like our chances at all unless we take 3 in a row like you have stated, mostly due to the recent home losses to VT and Clemson and the way those games were lost. In my Ray Charles eyes they were just inexcusable losses at the wrong time in the season and i'm thinking the selection fellas will hold that against us...just a feeling... hope i'm wrong. My Disclaimer: I don't know poop either !!!! I kept it clean in case the lil shortys were reading this...

Go Terps !

I personally believe that the RPI is a joke. I know that the selection committee uses it as a guide, but it is outdated and not a true reflection of the strength of a team. The bottom of the at-large field is watered down this year. If Kentucky at 16-11 has a chance then the Terps should be right there also. A win puts us at 9-7 in the conference and a win or two in the tournament should do the trick. I know you love the RPI, but more has to go into the analysis of qualified teams. We played #1 UCLA on a neutral court and beat #1 UNC on the road (not to mention Duke twice). I believe that Memphis is the only other #1 team to lose on their home floor this year. Joe Lunardi still has us in and says that the UVA game is obviously a must-win. Why do other pundits have us in and you believe we are out? Is it just the RPI?

I agree with you. The terps themselves only have one RPI 50 win (UNC), and have struggled to the finish. Those early non conferences really hurt our RPI. With an RPI in the 50s, I believe we're on the outside looking in. I think 3 wins will put us in though.

I think 3 wins would be needed. Looks like even with a win over UVA, the Terps will probably finish 6th. With Duke or UNC going 1 and 2, Clemson 3, and Tech 4, and Miami at 5. That would mean probably facing Clemson if they win the first round of the ACC tournament. A win over Clemson would be a quality win and most likely get them in, depending how other bubble teams do, and barring many upsets in the smaller conference tournaments.

Don,

Your wrong! The Terps need to win against Virginia and win the ACC Tourny outright. Otherwise were headed to the NIT.

Don,

I don't always agree with you, but in this case I have to. MD definetly needs at least 3 more wins to have a good shot at the NCAA's. Since MD doesn't have tiebreakers with VA Tech or Miami, it is conceivable they could fall to the sixth seed. If they get to the quarters, they could face #3 Clemson which would be a nice chance to get a quality win and heal some of the sting from Sunday's debacle. Of course, if they see Duke or UNC in the semis, they have to make sure not to get blown out.

I think they need to get to 20 wins. With the Va. Tech win last night, I don't see a way MD can end up 4th in the ACC, and it may help if they end up 5th or 6th. They would get a somewhat easier first round game and then would get to play either Va. Tech or Clemson in the second round. With a Duke or UNC rematch after that. With that said, they need to beat UVA on Sunday, because if they don't the only way they get in is to win the ACC Tournament.

They are out of it, they are going to lose to Virginia, then lose in the first round of the ACC tournment, then to finally complete the disappointment they will lose at home again in the first round of the NIT, just like they did to Manhattan.

Despite the Clemson collapse most bracketologists still have Maryland in. So I think they have to beat Virginia and then win a game in the ACC tourney to get in. A couple of things to remember: The ACC hast the highest RPI of all the conferences so the selectors aren't going to leave a team with 20 wins and a winning conference record in the nation's top conference out, also Kentucky 1 of Maryland's chief rivals for an at-large bid lost it's best player for the season something that will count significantly against them. Bottom line if the Terps beat Virginia and win an ACC tourney game their in.

They need to win at least 2 more games. I think they have a good shot if they win 20 games. In addition, they will be 9-7 in the toughest conference in America. That record has ALWAYS been enough to get into the NCAA's. It used to be 8-8 would get you in.

With the mid-majors doing so well, I think that they need to be 9-7. They need to be Va and then come back and beat NC State or Va in the opening round. If they do that, they'll more than likely face Virginia Tech on Day 2. We have proven we can beat this team, we've just blown the last 5 minutes in each game.

The bottom line - win the next two and you should be in the tourney. I can't see them only taking 3 or 4 teams from the ACC. I expect to see 5 teams - Duke, UNC, Maryland, Clemson and Miami. Virginia Tech has a half-way decent chance, too.

There was a story about the field and they listed the team chances as "pretty good, iffy, pretty bad" and the Terps fell into the pretty bad category. Personally I don't think they belong in the tournament.

Maryland needs to be UVA (no question) and then assuming they are the #6 Seed, beat #11 Seed (BC, Virginia, or Georgia Tech) and then beat #3 Clemson to ensure a berth.

I have seen that no ACC team with a 9-7 Regular Season has not been left out. This is not true. Florida State finished the 2005-06 regular season at 9-7 and in the ACC Tournament lost in the first round to Wake Forest. They ended up going to the NIT and lost to South Carolina in the second round.

1 or possibly 2 wins in the ACC Tournament is needed, plus we need to watch out for upsets in the mid-major tournaments (Go Butler, Drake, VCU......). That will take away a-large bids as well.

They need home wins over Ohio, AU, and VCU to get in the tourney.

I think it will come down to how many upset there are in the mid-major and below tournaments. There are many mid-major teams that will get in over MD outright. If they win their tourneys, better for MD. If they get upset and a weak team gets the auto bid for that conference and the regular season winner gets an at-large, MD's chances get very slim. There are a finite amount of at-large slots, and upsets in the lesser conference tourneys will reduce those slots. The Clemson game killed them.

Wow. A lot of people getting really scientific about trying to squeeze a bad basketball team into the NCAA tournament. I really don't care either way. The program has gone nowhere but down since its national title, so what's the difference between a first- or second-round NCAA loss or not going?

The Terps don't belong.

Will, if you don't care then why are you reading about it and more so, posting about it?

Terps win 2 they can sqeak in,
3 and a lock.

Maryland's issue is that the only team they've beaten is North Carolina....which is a big win....but it's the only big time win that they really have.

Teams like Illinois (12-17) and Wake Forest (4 losses in a row) are not looking like big wins. All of the teams above them in the to top half of the ACC (except North Carolina) have swept them (Duke, Clemson, Virginia Tech, and Miami). That means that 8 of their 9 ACC wins (assuming they beat Virginia) will be against teams with a losing conference record.

Assuming they beat Virginia and then win their first game in the tourney, they will then likely face Virginia Tech in a 4-5 matchup or Clemson in a 3-6 matchup.

If they lose to Virginia Tech, who is also sitting on the bubble, for the third time this season, I don't think they get in.

Don,

I kind of get what you're saying about the quality of wins. However, you're looking at this based on how bad the last loss was and not based on the math of the tournament.

First, every projected bracket has us in right now. So if we take care of business (beat UVA, win at least one, and probably two ACC tournament games) we certainly won't lose ground. Right now, you are casing the issue as if we need to play our way into the tournament, when all other projections have the Terps in even after the Clemson loss. If the Terps are in after the Clemson loss, then we should certainly be in if we tack on 2 or 3 wins even if the wins are against bad teams.

Second, you're viewing our chances of making the tournament based on our recent lousy play, and not relative to the other teams that we are competing for a spot in the tournament against. The bubble is extremely weak this year. Everyone can do the team comparisons themselves, but what you'll generally notice is that shockingly few mid-major teams are worthy of bubble consideration. The shortage of worthy mid-majors is opening the door for more spots to go to major conference teams.Remember, they have to take 34 at-large teams, even if the last 5 stink.

Bottom line: We have a few must win games coming up. We must beat UVA, must win our first round ACC tournament game, and probably must win our quarterfinal game. If we do that, I guarantee we get in, unless an abnormal amount of mid-major regular season champs lose in their conference tournaments. I think this team has enough left to win the games needed to get in, but they still have to get it done on the court.

Everyone is way ahead of themselves. The team has done nothing lately to make me believe they can win at Virginia this Sunday. They should focus on playing a complete game instead of just the first 30 minutes this time. My alma mater needs to step up! Go Terps!

I have to agree with the 9-7 record needed. A shame each year we are constantly on the bubble, essentially a .500 team in the ACC the last 5 years. Given that the ACC is rated the top or one of the top conferences in the country again this year, 9-7 should be enough, with one win in the ACC tourney....

Plain and simple for UMD, beat UVA which they will, and then win 1 lousy game in the ACC tournament and they will.

20 wins + 9-7 conference record in the number 1 leagues in America in mens basketball get my Terps a dance ticket and anything can happen ask George Mason with less talent then UMD has when they made their run all the way to the final 4. Don't count GW Terps out this is when they play their best basketball.

When some of you guys give up on them don't come back saying Fear the Turtle. Clemson is sorry, and so is VT, they got some good calls along the way.

What makes any of you think that the Terps can actually win these games? They have shown us all season that you can't expect them to win any game. Losing to American at home is inexcusable and should be the sole basis of the committee leaving them the out.

the terps do not belong in the ncaa
tourney....no matter what happens in
the next few weeks

Terps need to beat Virginia and at least get to the semifinals of the ACC tournament, which I feel is doable for them as they are capable of geting really hot. Will it happen? Who knows, I expect them to at least beat Virginia. If they don't beat Virginia than they have to win the ACC Championship, which I don't think they are capable of doing.

I just think Maryland has shown that they aren't a very dynamic team in terms of upsets. They have one (albeit incredible) win over a ranked team. That, combined with the RPI, combined with the mess in the ACC this year, combined with a lackluster finish, should push the Terps out of contention for the NCAAs unless they either win 3 games or a bunch of the bubble teams crash toward the end.

FT-44

What does your son predict will happen in the Melanesian conference tournaments?

"aj":

I went to Maryland and follow Terrapin sports (especially basketball, lacrosse and soccer) pretty closely. I don't care in that I am no longer really emotional about sports and don't refer to them as "we." However, in the sense of wishing to see the program reestablish itself nationally, I almost feel another NCAA miss might prompt change more than a disappointing showing by a team many nationally will feel (barring an ACC tourney win or deep run) doesn't belong there.

I said this in another blog, but one thing Gary hasn't admitted or addressed publicly is that the program has declined markedly since its national title.

You know it is being discussed by Yow and others internally. If you think it stands out to fans, it definitely burns inside College Park offices and among boosters.

But what were you insinuating, anyway, that only ray-rah "we"-sters should be posting on blogs like this?

Maryland probably DOES need to get to the ACC final to feel confident in their NCAA Tourney Hopes. Maryland also needs to pray that VCU wins the CAA tournament this weekend, so the CAA doesn't get two bids. Maryland's loss to VCU early in the season could really come back to haunt them if the committee is trying to decide if VCU or Maryland should get the 65th spot. But if Maryland doesn't win at least get to the semis of the tournament, forget about it.

A lot of good comments and food for thought. I'll add mine. I think 20 wins and 9 ACC wins should get them in. That being said, if they do make the NCAA, don't expect a long run. Could possibly be one and done.

It aint just about what MD does. Its what MD does in relation to what others like KY, Oregon, Syracuse, maybe even AZ ST do.
We know this. MD is not part of the discussion if they don't win at least 2 straight. At 20 wins and 9-7 ACC record, you think they're in, even if they're the 6th team in the ACC. But having only won 1 of 7 games against top 50 teams, and having a record slightly above .500 in their last 10 games works against them.
Remember Syracuse last year - won 22 games, beat GU late in the year - the committee bounced them for Air Force.
How about MD wins 3 straight and stops worrying about it?

Twenty wins and 9-7 in the ACC and they're in. However, I agree with the poster who raised an interesting point. What will the fallout be if they don't get in? Clearly, the staff has not recruited a dominant player since the title and it could be argued the personnel has gotten worse every year since the title. Clearly, there has been a decline in talent that raises serious questions about the direction of the program. Clearly, a University that should be in the tournament every year has been reduced to a regular bubble team. What gives? Both the men's football and basketball programs have had difficulty recruiting. Keep in mind that early run Fridge made was with Vanderlinden's players. Something is going on at Maryland. it's hard to figure out exactly what. I know this, a lot of people inside Maryland bring up Yow, not Gary and Fridge. But it's hard to see how she could be blamed.

Whoever wrote in and said, "They would have to win the ACC tournament to even have a chance to make it". . .is an IDIOT!!! If we won the ACC tournament, we would BE in IT. Having a CHANCE would have nothing to do it. Can someone at the Sun please bar idiots from writing in?

That being said, very few of the comments posted here consider that the Terps play in the ACC, not the Patriot League or some other pansy conference. One sure way to get a high RPI is play a questionable schedule, which Maryland doesn't.

Bottom line - If they win at Virginia, they are iffy. . .if they win at Virginia and at least a game in the ACC Tourney, they are in.

period

FT44 -
Melanesian Economies and NCAA Basketball... Yeah, I see the correlation. Find somewhere else to brag about your son.

The Maryland Terps Men ae just not that good. They are so inconsistent.
There point guard play is extremely inconsistent and for those that may quetion that, when was the last time you saw a Duke or North Carolina team have a point guard and reckless as Maryland?....the answer to that is NEVER!!
Yes, Maryland is young....but they have sealed their own fate, the NIT.
With loses to Virginia Commonwealth, Ohio Univ., and lowly American....along with two to Va. Tech and one to Boston College,,,,,then the debacle to Clemson.....NIT here they come....they have earned it.....so no crying from the Terps is warranted!!

We got 'em just where we want 'em!!

Just saw ESPN College Gameday at Duke University for the Duke/UNC game. They played IN OR OUT and they didn't even mention the Terps. Looks like 2005-2006 all over again. We were on the bubble after sweeping Duke that year and at the end nobody was even talking about us. We are being looked over and did not have a chance to build our resume this week with so much time off. Doesn't look good. Kentucky is in at 17-11 and losing their best player. West Virginia is in along with Ohio State. I hope they are talking about teams in shifts because the UVA game might not even matter. We will have to win the ACC outright. Go Drake! Go Butler! Go Davidson! Go VCU!

I hate to say it, but since the national title the expectations are alot higher and fans who support the basketball team expect acc title runs and ncaa bids. I am a Terp follower with the best of them but I really think to have that expectation with the type of system Gary runs is not realistic.
As far as this year, I think from the type of team Gary has inconsistency can be expected from the team with some of its underclassman. Vasquez at times shows brilliance and at times makes ill advised drives or passes. Hayes needs to get his confidence back and I personally believe the offense runs better when he is bringing the ball up the court. Gist for being the senior that he is really does not have the "leadership" capabilites nor does Osby. What I mean by that is Gist appears to be a guy who gets along with everybody, not a person who will get in your face and hold you accountable. Vasquez has to ability to be the leader but defers to Gist or others. The inconsistency is frustrating from a fan's perspective but can be expected if you look at the players themselves. BOTTOM LINE: If MD beats VA I think they are in regardless of the ACC tourney. However, if their are alot of upsets in the other conference tournaments don't be surprised if they are left out.
I believe Maryland has the makings of a team that can go on a run if all is clicking and that means Gist, Osby, Vasquez, Hayes, Milbourne are all in double figures. If someone would step up and play JUAN DIXON we would have that go to guy.

The Acc will get 6 teams including the Terps.The Terps will be a 9 seed or lower. Ray charles can see that. They can beat the best, and they can lose to the worst.Which makes them a dangerouse team. . For all you doubters dont watch. Cinderella Baby.

Terps need to start work on next season

George... time to put down the crack pipe, ok? The Twerps have lost 5 out of their last 6 games. That includes losses to B.C. and Virginia! How on God's green earth are they gonna get in now???

Trainwreck, baby. Trainwreck