RPI could be RIP for Terps
Just looked at the latest RPI from the NCAA, and it doesn't bode well for Maryland.
Most of you figured the Terps would keep climbing in that confounding stat chart known as the RPI (Ratings Percentage Index) because they kept playing ACC teams, including North Carolina and Duke in the past two games.
You figured wrong.
While Maryland moved to No. 80 after beating the Tar Heels in Chapel Hill a week ago Saturday, the Terps slipped to 82 after losing to the Blue Devils in College Park Sunday night. Does that mean more slippage is in store, regardless of the outcome, after playing Virginia tomorrow night at Comcast Center and Georgia Tech in Atlanta on Saturday?
Not to add to Gary Williams' already formidable us-against-the-world complex, but Clemson jumped from 33 to 27 despite losing Sunday at Miami, and the Hurricanes jumped 11 spots to 32. Are they that much better than Maryland, or Boston College for that matter?
The Eagles fell 22 spots to 84. Given that most consider BC the third-best team in the ACC behind Duke and North Carolina, it means that no team aside from the top two is a lock for the NCAA tournament. That's good news for Maryland, which needs to hold serve at home and win a couple on the road to sneak into the field of 65.
But if you can't move up after playing Duke, it doesn't look too good.
Comments
Don,
I think you are making a mountain out of a molehill here. Home losses hurt, regardless of who it is to. If MD WINS games, that takes care of itself. MD needs to win their home games and steal two on the road. That gets them to 9-7, and is probably good for 4th or 5th in the ACC, right on the bubble. You are right that only 2 ACC teams are locks right now, but that doesn't mean the ACC will only get two teams in the NCAAs. It just means the rest of the conference still has to shake itself out.
Who said BC was the 3rd best ACC team, by the way? They were lucky to win @MD, and lost to Robert Morris at home.
Posted by: Greg | January 29, 2008 12:53 PM
Who exactly considers BC the third-best team in the conference?
Posted by: Andrew | January 29, 2008 1:15 PM
SOS went up to 17th...
1/30 - Virginia W
2/2 - @GaTech L
2/6 - @Boston College W
2/9 - NCST W
2/13 - @Duke L
2/16 - FSU W
2/20 - VaTech W
2/23 - @Miami L
2/28 - @Wake Forest W
3/2 - Clemson W
3/9 - @UVA W
= 10-6 in conf... believe FSU is the only ACC team to not make the NCAAT after winning 10 games in conf play.
Posted by: Chris | January 29, 2008 1:39 PM
I think you are misunderstanding the RPI. Home losses hurt even if it's against Duke. The only reason their RPI didn't drop more after losing was because the game made their strength of schedule go up about 20 spots. This will continue to happen as they go through the ACC, the strongest RPI conference. If they win games, especially on the road, their RPI will continue to shoot up, as it did after the UNC game. But you can't say they are in trouble because their RPI dropped after a home loss - that is supposed to happen.
Posted by: Robert | January 29, 2008 1:52 PM
in the ACC, RPI is just another measurement of Wins & Losses. you win enough games, you will have a good enough RPI to make the tourney. you don't make the tourney, you didn't have enough wins. simple as that. this doesn't apply to all other conferences.
Posted by: joe | January 29, 2008 2:03 PM
Probably the same person who thinks a team that lost to AU and Ohio at home can sneak into the NCAA tournament.
Posted by: mclean | January 29, 2008 2:28 PM
Anyone talking about the terps making the NCAA tournament doesn't realize how many other BETTER teams are out there.
If they do make it, they don't deserve it.
For some reason terps fans think they are always the best. Don't let the fluke win at UNC think you have something.
Posted by: hmmm | January 29, 2008 4:48 PM
Embittered UVA fan perhaps?
Either way, I'm guessing you didn't watch the UNC game or the Duke game or any other MD games this month. If you had you wouldn't honestly try to call the UNC win a fluke. The Terps dominated about 35 minutes of that game. Every commentator I respect has been observing the Terps have a chance to be a very good team and end up in the top portion of the conference standings. They are an excellent defensive team and a decent but very inconsistent offensive one.
As it stands right now, MD is #42 in Ken Pomeroy's rankings (a better measure than the RPI). This will go up after the win tonight. The Terps will probably need to win at least 20 total incl. the ACC tourney to get in. I think they can do that, as long as they stay injury-free and the freshmen keep improving.
And OBTW, there is no way BC is the 3rd best team in the conf. I doubt they finish with more than 7 wins.
Posted by: hmmm is not a word | January 30, 2008 10:15 PM
Based on their resume now, they do not deserve to be in--regardless of being one of the top three teams in the ACC in January. But, they do not select the NCAAs on Jan. 31. They have time to build their portfolio but have little margin for error after home losses to Ohio and AU.
Posted by: Charlie Goldberg | January 31, 2008 4:21 PM
One of the key factors looked at by the selection committee is what have you done lately? The Terps have to win games, and have shown they can do it. Now they have to do it consistently. If they do, they can make the NCAA. If they don't, they won't. They won't get in with an 8-8 record, and 9-7 probably won't cut it because of some of their non-conference losses. But a 10-6 conference record will give them a respectable RPI and enough "quality" wins to offset the ugly losses, of which the one to American is the most damaging.
Contrary to what hmmmm says, if the Terps make the NCAA they definitely WILL deserve it because they are not getting in unless they are winning enough games the rest of the season.
Posted by: Jack | January 31, 2008 5:17 PM
To the idiot who stated on Jan 29th that Md fans think they are better then others must not realize who is in the ACC. Try Duke-bunch of snobs! The players reflect their coach. Coach Williams' team play hard and never give up
2nd-Md has lost some easy games, but so has other teams this year like Kentucky & Michigan St. But sometimes those loses wake a team up. As for the NCAA field, I think people have to stop looking at Bracketology(with Joe the GEEK). Md just has to win their games. If they finish 3rd in ACC, they will get in. ACC may not best the strongest but no way will they only take 2 teams from ACC.
Posted by: bob turlington | February 15, 2008 5:21 PM
As for Terps not getting into the Big Dance. Many teams have gotten in the big dance that "did not deserve it". 1994-Michigan 16-14. 2000-N.Carolina 18-13. I rest my case!
Posted by: bob turlington | February 15, 2008 5:24 PM