by Frank James

Here's some news that may help the campaign of Sen. Barack Obama get through what's expected to be a difficult couple of primaries tomorrow and next Tuesday in West Virginia and Kentucky, respectively. Gallup says he's pulling ahead of Sen. Hillary Clinton in its national polling for the first time in three weeks.

Among Democratic voters, Obama has a seven-point lead, 50 percent versus 43 percent, in its polling over Clinton, Gallup said. Here's a snippet.

Although Obama did not achieve an immediate bounce in national Democratic support after last week's primary elections in Indiana and North Carolina, it could be that the subsequent political punditry, proclaiming the Clinton campaign is effectively over, is affecting voters.

Not good for Clinton, certainly. But there was still a nugget of good news for Clinton which was bad news for Sen. John McCain, the all but official Republican nominee.

by Mark Silva

Now that Barack Obama claims a narrow majority of the Democratic Party's super-delegates, and with Obama poised to claim a majority of the pledged delegates in primaries on May 20, he's looking for a breakaway with the nation's Democrats.

In daily tracking of the sentiment of Democratic voters, Obama and Hillary Clinton have run a close contest for months. But neither has claimed more than 50 percent of the Democrats in the three-day averages of voters surveyed by the Gallup Poll.

With results in from the first three days of polling following Obama's big win in North Carolina and Clinton's squeaker in Indiana on Tuesday, Obama has gained another slight advantage in national daily tracking.

Yet, Gallup's Frank Newport notes, while "Obama's margin over Clinton is now larger than it has been over the last several days, he has yet to move into a significant or commanding lead, despite much discussion about the inevitability of his becoming the Democratic nominee.''

The standoff certainly has a lot to do with a lot of Democrats unwilling to give up on Clinton's candidacy as she struggles to keep a dwindling claim on the party's presidential nomination.

The results are based on a May 7-9 survey of 1,270 Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters, with a possible margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. For more, including a look at the contest from the start of January, see the Gallup Poll.

by Mark Silva

This posting may defy the sentiment behind it: People say the media have over-covered the story of the Rev. Jeremiah Wright.

"The latest round of news about Barack Obama and his former pastor Rev. Jeremiah Wright dominated campaign news coverage last week,'' the Pew Research Center finds its latest news-interest survey. "Wright's comments are by far the biggest political event of the campaign to date: Fully 62 percent say they have heard a lot or a little about Rev. Wright's recent speeches.''

And look at this: "Most Americans (59 percent) think that news organizations have overcovered the Wright controversy,'' Pew's Andy Kohut reports. "About two-thirds of Democrats (66 percent) and nearly as many independents (59 percent) say that news organizations have devoted too much coverage to Wright's recent speeches. But as many as half of Republicans agree that Wright's comments have received too much coverage.''

With all of that exposure of Obama, the Democrat who stands the strongest chance of claiming his party's presidential nomination now, and the most inciteful remarks of the fiery, longtime and now-retired pastor of Obama's church on the South Side of Chicago, comes a certain political price.

. "By the end of the week a quarter of all Americans, including 26 percent of Democrats, said their opinion of Obama had become less favorable in recent days;'' reports Kohut, president of the Pew Center. "Fewer than half as many (11 percent) said their opinion of the Illinois senator had become more favorable. ''

Those whose opinions had changed were asked about any specific incidents that prompted that. "Overall, a majority of those who said their opinion of Obama had become more negative volunteered a specific incident, with the Wright controversy mentioned most frequently (by 60 percent of those who cited a specific event).''

Of course, nearly four in ten Americans surveyed said they also had seen the photographs of Miley Cyrus that had stirred an uproar over the young skin of Hannah Montana. And that didn't do much for her image either -- among those who saw the bare-backed photo and more, 59 percent thought they were inappropriate.

Read more, here, from the weekly News Interest Index, a project of the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press and The Project for Excellence in Journalism.

by Frank James

Here's an interesting finding from Gallup's pollsters -- almost as many Jewish voters say they would vote for Sen. Barack Obama for president against Sen. John McCain, the all-but-official Republican presidential nominee, as say they would vote for Sen. Hillary Clinton against McCain.

According to Gallup, 61 percent of Jewish voters surveyed said they'd vote for Obama in the general election versus 32 percent who say they'd vote for McCain.

That compares with 66 percent of Jewish voters who said they'd vote for Clinton to the 27 percent who said they'd vote for McCain

Gallup suggested the poll indicated that Obama hasn't been noticeably hurt by his past relationship with his former pastor, Rev. Jeremiah Wright Jr., who has spoken positively of Minister Louis Farrakhan of the Nation of Islam and has rebuked Israel for the plight of Palestinians.

Evidence of Obama's concern about Jewish support for his candidacy stretches back to at least January, when he first publicly refuted Web-fueled rumors that he is or has been a Muslim -- the implication of the rumors being that he would be sympathetic to Muslim political concerns and anti-Israel in his worldview. At the same time, he also disassociated himself from the anti-Semitic remarks of black activist Louis Farrakhan, and has recently disassociated himself from his former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright.

Thus, any damage to Jews' perceptions of Obama as someone who would be sympathetic and fair to their interests could have occurred much earlier in the campaign. However, in terms of recent events -- particularly the ongoing controversy about why Obama would have belonged to a church led by someone with Wright's anti-Israel views (among other criticisms of Wright) -- Gallup trends suggest Obama's Jewish support is holding up.

Why is this important? Here's one reason. Think Florida, which has a significant Jewish population.

by Mark Silva

A growing number of Democrats believe that the continuing contest between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton is "doing more harm than good'' for the Democratic Party.

Six in ten - 62 percent - of the Democrats surveyed by the Gallup Poll over the last weekend said so. That's up from 56 percent in late March.

This is particularly true among Democrats who support Obama, Gallup's Frank Newport reports - "this is no doubt because Obama is the current leader in both the popular vote... and the overall delegate count. Continuing to campaign has very little upside potential for Obama and a lot of downside potential -- as may be occurring now, with Obama having to deal with continuing controversies surrounding his relationship with the Rev. Jeremiah Wright.

Fewer Clinton supports believe so.

"Given that Clinton's only realistic chance of winning the nomination is to continue to campaign and hope events will help convince superdelegates to switch and vote for her, this pattern is not surprising,'' notes Newport, editor-in-chief of the Gallup Poll.

For more, see the Gallup report.

by Mark Silva

In the state that Barack Obama calls his "tie-breaker,'' a new Indiana poll of likely Democratic voters shows Hillary Clinton gaining an edge heading into Tuesday's primary election.

"Hillary Clinton appears to have improved her electoral fortunes considerably,'' Michael Wolf and Andrew Downs report from the Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics at Indiana University and Purdue University-Fort Wayne, noting that Clinton has started peeling independent, swing voters from Obama.

Their newewst survey shows 52 percent of likely Democratic primary voters backing Clinton, 45 percent Obama. Their survey, conducted Monday through Wednesday, marks a turning of the tables from the last poll they conducted, April 14-16, when Obama had the backing of 50 percent, Clinton 45. The survey of 689 voters carries a possible margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percent.

"The latest poll fell during the latest Reverend Wright controversy, with Barack Obama publicly separating himself from Wright on the second day of polling,'' the professors note. "Further, the poll was completed before Democratic superdelegates, Rep. Baron Hill and former Democratic National Committee Chairman Joe Andrew, endorsed Barack Obama. Consequently, the effect of all of these events is unclear.

"What is clear, however, is that Clinton has expanded her lead among strong Democratic identifiers and dramatically turned the tables on Obama with independent voters and those concerned about the worsening economy,'' they report.

"Obama's ability to attract independents paid off in earlier nomination contests, and our mid-April poll found that Obama was well ahead among this group,'' they say. "Clinton has now flipped these voters into her category with nearly the same advantage Obama held two weeks earlier with a lead among pure independents (56 percent Clinton to 38 percent Obama) Republican-leaning independents (54 percent Clinton to 46 percent Obama), and has drawn even with Democratic-leaning independents at 47 percent.)"

By Glenn Thrush

Barack Obama gobbled up a major Hillary Clinton superdelegate Thursday -- but he's suffering from a decline in the polls that coincides with the national tour conducted by his firebrand former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright.

Former Democratic National Committee Chairman Joe Andrew -- who endorsed Hillary Rodham Clinton last year -- defected to Obama Thursday, the 15th superdelegate to back him in the last week.

"We have two good candidates, but we have two people who've run their campaigns in two different ways," said Andrew, an Indiana superdelegate. "Barack Obama is serious about changing the process in politics. ... I'm inspired by someone who says, you know we don't have to play the game."

At the same time, a bevy of new polls seemed to show Obama is suffering from the "Wright Effect."

Clinton has widened her lead in Indiana, cut Obama's edge in North Carolina down to 7 points and lurched ahead in a major national poll, following a week of wall-to-wall coverage of controversial remarks by Obama's ex-pastor.

A Gallup national daily tracking poll showed Clinton jumping to a 49 to 45 lead over Obama, her biggest lead nationally since mid-March. Obama led Clinton by 10 points in the poll on the eve of the April 22 Pennsylvania primary.

A CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll released Thursday showed Obama and Clinton in a statistical dead heat nationally, with Obama surrendering a 7-point lead in the last six weeks.

Tom Bevan, founder of Realclearpolitics.com, which tracks poll data, termed the shift a "rather dramatic tightening" of a Democratic presidential race many had considered finished prior to Clinton's Pennsylvania victory, Wright's resurfacing and Obama's belated denunciation of the pastor.

by Mark Silva

John McCain's greatest liability in November may be George W. Bush, a new poll run by NBC News and the Wall Street Journal suggest: "43 percent of registered voters say they have major concerns that McCain is too closely aligned with the current administration.

Hillary Clinton's problem may be shifting positions on issues: 36 percent say that Clinton seems to change her position on issues such as driver licenses for undocumented immigrants and the North American Free Trade Agreement, which her husband signed but she now opposes.

Barack Obama is confonting his own own words: With 34 percent saying they are bothered by his remarks about the "bitterness'' of working class voters and 32 percent voicing concern over Obama's associations with the Rev. Jeremiah Wright of Chicago nd onetime 1960s radical and now-Illinois professor William Ayers.

"That Bush might be the biggest albatross heading into November's presidential election is yet another sign of the difficult environment facing the Republican Party,'' NBC News reports today.

The survey found that 73 percent of voters disapproved of the president's handling of the economy and 81 percent believe the United States is in a recession. "You look at the political atmospherics, they are so clearly tilted to the Democrats," Republican pollster Neil Newhouse, who conducted the survey with the Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart, reports. Republicans "will need every break they can get."

by Mark Silva

Are you struggling? You're not alone.

Are you thriving? You're not alone.

Nearly as many Americans are struggling as are surving, says the Gallup Poll, which has surveyed more than 100,000 Americans since the beginning of 2008. Gallup has found: 49 percent of Americans say they are "thriving," 47 percent are "struggling," and nearly 4 percent are "suffering." The suffering, it seems, is not as bad as expected.

"The Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index builds upon Gallup's long tradition of representing the "voice of the people," and ultimately, what it is that people believe constitutes a good life,'' Gallup reports. "With measures that reflect Americans' evaluations of their day-to-day lives as well as their daily emotional experiences, Gallup is now able to provide an unprecedented view of public well-being in the United States.

"The Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index asks Americans to evaluate their lives by imagining a "ladder" with steps numbered from 0 to 10, where "0" represents the worst possible life and "10" represents the best possible life.

"Nationally, 49 percent of Americans say that they presently stand on steps 7 or higher of the ladder. When asked where they will stand about five years from now, Americans report that they expect to stand on steps 8 or higher. Gallup considers this group of Americans to be 'thriving.'... While nearly half fall into this category, the percentage of citizens in the thriving group is down from 60% in 2006.

"On the low end of the spectrum, 4 percent of U.S. residents say they presently stand on steps 0 to 4 of the ladder. When asked where they will stand five years from now, Americans in this group report that they expect to stand on steps 0 to 4 of the ladder, as well. Gallup considers this group of Americans to be "suffering."

For more, see the Gallup Poll report.

by Mark Silva

If there's a little bounce in Hillary Clinton's step since her Pennsylvania primary win, there's a little bounce in her poll numbers, too.

That daily tracking survey which the Gallup Poll has been running -- charting an uncannily close contest nationally between Clinton and Barack Obama for the hearts of Demoratic voters -- shows Obama and Clinton virtually tied again. Obama at 48 percent, Clinton 47 percent. And Clinton has closed the gap in the days since Pennsylvania.

The Gallup tracking from Tuesday through Thursday includes two days of interviews conducted entirely after Tuesday's Pennsylvania Democratic primary, Gallup notes. And undecided voters have left the fence.

"Support for Clinton is significantly higher in these post-primary interviews than it was just prior to her Pennsylvania victory, clearly suggesting that Clinton's win there is the catalyst for her increased national support,'' Gallup's Lydia Saad reports.

"Obama's lead dwindled steadily all week, falling from a high of 10 percentage points in interviewing conducted in the three days just prior to the Pennsylvania primary,'' Saad adds. "However, the percentage of Democrats supporting Obama has changed little (declining from 50 percent in April 19-21 polling to 48 percent today). Most of Clinton's increased support (from 40 percent to 47 percent) has come from previously undecided voters.

"Both Clinton and Obama have experienced surges in support for their candidacies at various times since the start of the primary season -- several of them linked with primary wins and other high profile events -- only to see the race revert back to a near tie position,'' she adds.

See the full report here.

by Mark Silva

Barack Obama has called Indiana his "tie-breaker'' in the three-state series of primaries that started with Hillary Clinton's victory in Pennsylvania this week.

With Obama holding an apparent advantage in North Carolina on May 6, the question remains: What will Indiana's Democrats do on the Sixth?

Two polls coming out of Indiana suggest that Obama and Clinton both have a lot of work to do in Indiana in the next week and a half.

The South Bend Tribune's poll potrays a dead heat: 48 percent of the Democrats surveyed supporting Obama, 47 percent Clinton. The poll of 400 voters likely to take part in the primary was run Wednesday and Thursday by the Tribune and three Indiana TV stations, and carries a possible margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.

The Indianapolis Star has reported on a survey run Sunday through Wednesday, with another virtual tie: Obama 41 percent, Clinton 38 percent. The survey of 535 likely Democratic primary voters carries a possible margin of error of 4.2 percentage points.

Looks like the Indiana campaign ahead could indeed be a tie-breaker.

by Frank James

It looks like President Bush has achieved a historical mark but it's certainly one he could have done without.

Gallup says Bush's 69 percent disapproval rating is the highest it's ever recorded in history.

That's right, his disapproval rating even surpasses that of President Richard Nixon at the height of Watergate.

But while Bush has the highest negative ratings Gallup has ever recorded for a president, he doesn't have the lowest positives. President Harry Truman had a 23 percent favorable rating. Bush isn't far from that at 28 percent but he still can hang onto the fact that he has higher approval ratings than Truman.

Gallup explains that seeming inconsistency between approval and disapproval ratings thusly:

President Bush's approval rating now is at 28%, which ties for the lowest of his administration, but is not the lowest in Gallup Poll history. Harry Truman reached a 23% approval rating in 1951 and in 1952, and Richard Nixon had two 24% job approval scores in 1974.

Harry Truman's two 23% approval ratings were accompanied by 61% and 67% disapproval ratings, leaving 16% and 10% of those interviewed who did not offer an opinion about his job performance. Richard Nixon's two 24% job approval ratings in 1974 were paired with 63% and 66% disapproval ratings, leaving 13% and 10% with no opinion.

by Mark Silva

A 10-point advantage that Sen. Barack Obama held over Sen. Hillary Clinton in Gallup's national daily tracking poll just one week ago has vanished - with Gallup reporting Clinton's first marginal lead over Obama among Democratic voters in a month.

Clinton's 46-45 percentage point edge over Obama - a statistical tie, really, but the first time that Democrats have leaned in Clinton's direction since March 18-20 - follows the contentious debate in Philadelphia last week that Obama derided as a "gotcha'' fest but Clinton claimed as a victory.

The newest survey results reported Saturday come from polling April 16-18, including two days following the debate. "Support for Hillary Clinton has been significantly higher in both of these post-debate nights of interviewing than in recent nights,'' Gallup's Frank Newport reports.

Newport, editor in chief of the Gallup Poll, notes that there "has been no change in the general election trial heats, with Obama's margin over Republican John McCain at 45 percent to 44 percent among registered voters nationally, and Clinton's margin holding at 46 to 44 percent.

It's a tie, all the way around -- a remarkable backdrop for the campaign unfolding over the next six and a half months.

For more, see the Gallup Poll.

by Mark Silva

It's a safe bet that either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama could fare well this year in states where the Democratic presidential nominee had a comfortable lead in 2004, and that John McCain can perform similarly in comfortably Republican-voting states.

But in the competitive middle-ground - what some like to call "the purple states'' - who might hold the advantage in November? As it stands now, with a survey of polling throughout the past month, Gallup reports that the Democrats hold the edge in those battlegrounds.

Obama holds a four-point advantage over presumptive Republican nominee McCain among registered voters in states that were competitive in the 2004 election, Gallup reports, based on an aggregate of more than 13,000 interviews with voters nationwide in Gallup's daily tracking polling so far in April.

Clinton also holds a four-point advantage over McCain in these states, Gallup reports - but this part is noteworthy: "She does not fare quite as well as Obama does in blue states, and she trails McCain by a slightly larger margin than Obama does in red states,'' Gallup's Jeff Jones reports.

The states in question: New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Florida, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Oregon - where 31 percent of the nation's voters reside.

by Mark Silva

The first fresh and reliable look at the mood of Pennsylvania voters since the controversy over Barack Obama’s comments about the bitterness of working-class voters flared up over the weekend has arrived: Hillary Clinton holds a steady 6 percentage-point advantage over Obama in a critical state holding its primary one week from today.

Clinton is the choice of 50 percent of the Pennsylvania Democrats surveyed and Obama 44 percent, according to the results of a new Quinnipiac University Poll. The pollsters, who surveyed Pennsylvanians on Saturday and Sunday, conclude that Clinton has “stalled… Obama’s drive’’ in Pennsylvania – with the two candidates’ standing unchanged from the last Quinnipiac Poll released on April 8 – Obama then had been closing a gap with Clinton in earlier surveys taken there.

“Sen. Hillary Clinton is fighting off Sen. Barack Obama’s drive to make it a close race in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary, holding the six-point edge she had a week ago. She seems to have halted the erosion of whites and white women in particular from her campaign,” said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

“She even gained back some ground in the Philadelphia suburbs – the area where elections are won and lost in the Keystone State,'' Richards said in a release this morning. "She now trails Obama by just two points in this critical area, while she was 11 points behind a week ago.”

Yet most of the Democrats surveyed in Pennsylvania tell pollsters they still believe that Obama will win the party’s presidential nomination – including 32 percent of the Clinton supporters surveyed.

by Mark Silva

Sen. Barack Obama appears to be "weathering the storm'' over his remarks about the bitterness of working class voters -- at least on the national stage -- according to the Gallup Poll.

Obama has maintained a 10-percentage point advantage over Sen. Hillary Clionton in Gallup's daily tracking poll, with results in from surveys taken Friday through Sunday.

Obama 's 10-point advantage among surveyed Democrats matches his best standing in the campaign so far, Gallup reports today. And his support "remained strong in tracking interviews conducted on Saturday and Sunday'' in the midst of the controversy over his reported remarks about working class voters -- for which his rivals have accused him of elitism and being "out of touch.''

"It is likely Clinton and Republican John McCain will continue to remind voters of the remarks, and the possibility remains that it could affect voters in the coming days,'' Gallup reports. "But so far they seem unaffected by the controversy.''

The impact of the controversy within Pennsylvania remains another question. The argument has occupied center stage one week from the state's presidential primary. Reliable polls in coming days will gauge the impact of the controversy in the Keystone State.

See the results of Gallup's tracking here.