by Ricardo Alonso-Zaldivar
Although Democrats are tangled in a fractious primary contest, both Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama probably would win the White House against presumptive GOP nominee John McCain if the election were held now, according to a new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll.
Arizona Sen. McCain remains competitive, but the poll identified one important vulnerability: Voters ranked him lowest among the three candidates on who could best handle the nation's economy -- by far the most pressing concern for the public irrespective of party, gender or income. Of the three main candidates, New York Sen. Clinton inspired the most confidence on the economy.
In a hypothetical matchup, the poll gave Illinois Sen. Obama 46% to McCain's 40%, with 9% undecided.
Clinton led McCain 47% to 38%, with 11% undecided. The nationwide poll, conducted May 1 through Thursday and released Friday, had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
The results represent a shift from a Times/Bloomberg poll in February, when McCain led Clinton by 6 percentage points and Obama by 2, within the poll's margin of error.
"Although there is such infighting now between the two Democratic candidates, we are finding that both Democrats are beating McCain, and this could be attributed to the weakening of the economy," said Times Polling Director Susan Pinkus, who supervised the survey.
For example, among the 78% of voters who said they believe the economy has slid into a recession, 52% would vote for Obama, compared with 32% for McCain. A Clinton-McCain matchup showed nearly identical results.
The poll was based on telephone interviews with 2,208 adults nationwide -- 1,986 of them registered voters -- several days before and after Tuesday's primaries in Indiana and North Carolina, which Clinton and Obama split.
Those primary results were a disappointment for Clinton, who trails Obama in delegates and the popular vote and had hoped for a much stronger showing to swing momentum her way.
It now appears all but inevitable that Obama will be the Democratic nominee, though Clinton continues to campaign aggressively ahead of the final six primaries.
The poll offered fresh insights for Democrats weighing which candidate, Obama or Clinton, would have the best chance against McCain in the fall.
For example, among voters 65 and older, Clinton and McCain were essentially tied; but McCain led Obama 47% to 41%.
Among people ages 18 to 44, Obama led McCain 55% to 35%. Clinton led McCain 48% to 35%.
African Americans would vote overwhelmingly for Obama, the first black candidate with a realistic chance of becoming president. In the poll, he carried 79% of African Americans, with 3% supporting McCain.
In a matchup with Clinton, McCain's share of the African American vote rose to 9%, roughly in line with the performance of past GOP presidential candidates. Clinton had 60% of the African American vote; 23% of respondents in this cornerstone Democratic constituency said they were undecided.
Among baby boomers -- the giant post-World War II generation that will begin to reach retirement age in the next president's term -- both Democrats edged out McCain: Clinton 47% to 39%, Obama 45% to 37%. Whoever is elected will face serious Medicare and Social Security shortfalls.
McCain remains competitive because of his showing among older voters and independents -- constituencies both parties are vying to win. McCain leads Clinton among independents and is essentially tied with Obama.
Beyond divisions of race, gender, politics or income, voters' dominant concern is the state of the nation's economy, the poll found.
Although recent government data showed that the economy continued grow from January through March, many experts believe it was running on fumes and may well be shrinking this quarter.
Fifty-six percent of voters said the economy should be the top priority for the presidential candidates to address. Thirty-four percent said the war in Iraq should be the top priority. Healthcare and illegal immigration were the only other issues to break double digits, with 11% apiece. (Respondents could choose two.)
More than three-quarters of voters said they believed the economy was in a recession, and about a quarter said they thought the downturn was be mild.
The same percentage said the recession was serious.
The gloom was evident in answers to one of the basic questions pollsters ask: whether the country is headed in the right direction or is on the wrong track.
Seventy-seven percent of voters, and 76% of adults overall, said the nation was "seriously off on the wrong track."
Liberals were most likely to say that -- 90% did -- but so did 62% of conservatives. Among independents, 82% said the country was off-course.
Half of Republicans said the country was going in the wrong direction.
Overall, only 15% of voters and 17% of adults overall believe things are going well.
"The right direction/wrong track question sets the stage for the pessimistic and gloomy view about the economy," Pinkus said. "The last time we had 'wrong track' in the 70% range was back in 1992." That was the year Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton won the Democratic nomination and went on to defeat the incumbent president, George H.W. Bush, on the heels of a recession that lasted from 1990 to 1991.
Regardless of their choice for president, voters judged Hillary Clinton the most capable of the three candidates in handling economic policies. She garnered 32%, compared with 26% for Obama and 23% for McCain.
"This is an issue that McCain really has to work on to turn people's attitudes around," Pinkus said.
"This is an issue that is a positive for Democrats, and that may explain why they are doing better -- even though they are still fighting each other and McCain is getting a free ride."
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Comments
"Although there is such infighting now between the two Democratic candidates, we are finding that both Democrats are beating McCain,
Wait till they can turn their sights only towards McBush....ouch. I believe Jeff will be on soon to talk about the liberal media....blah blah blah!
Posted by: bill r. | May 10, 2008 12:28 PM
Virtually the entire Republican brain trust and its amen corner in the media agree. Or at least they did four years ago, when the subject was Democrat Theresa Heinz Kerry and her vast fortune. Despite eventually releasing a two-page summary of her 2003 income, the Kerrys were pilloried by the same conservative machine that is silent now.
Remember this republicans?
Posted by: bill r. | May 10, 2008 12:43 PM
It's only going to get worse for the Republic Party (McCain) when Obama is officially named the Dem nominee (May 20).
Posted by: John E | May 10, 2008 12:48 PM
Jeff will have to wait while his tag-team partner, bruce, scours the nation's polls to find one that favors McCain. And then the usual rant; The DNC Swamp, blah, blah, blah...what liberal institution did the pollster attend? and so on.
Posted by: dt | May 10, 2008 1:09 PM
Of course the polls show either one will beat McCain right now, the dems are getting all the press. I think the McCain/Obama debates are going to be great. They are both very articulate.
Posted by: Matt P | May 10, 2008 1:11 PM
McCain did not learn from Clinton. Like Hilary McCain will lose in landslide.
Posted by: diogu | May 10, 2008 1:21 PM
Any Democrat should be beating the stuffing out of any Republican challenger. And yet they're not.
McCain has been mostly off the radar for months now and he's still within easy striking distance. This shows you how hollow his competition is.
Obama has rarely been examined by the national press. But they're like schooling fish... they all go in one direction but they turn on a dime. Rest assured, after the Republicans gear up their campaign and shine a bright light on Obama's record, then that's where they'll go.
Bye-bye, Barack.
Posted by: MJ | May 10, 2008 1:22 PM
McCain trying to link Senator Obama to Hamas is a sign of desperation. Senator McCain has lost his ethical bearings. Senator McCain said he was going to run a clean campaign but It is the same old tired politics. Apparently he did not watch what happened to Clinton when she tried to pull this garbage. The newest thing is for some supporters of McCain to suggest that a middle eastern policy adviser to Senator Obama is a Hamas agent. This is utterly ridiculous. By that logic Bush is guilty of the same thing since Senator Obama's adviser reports to our government as part of his job.
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/05 /09/obama_adviser_tied_to_hamas_me.html
If you bet against the intelligence of the American people this time you are going to lose. The problem with the McCain argument about various people saying they like Senator Obama is the fact that most of people in the world would rather have Senator Obama as president than Senator McCain, including the majority of the American people when ask.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/p olitics/election_20082/2008_presidential_electio n/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
The Wright thing is a dead issue for McCain unless he wants to bring his own paster problems into the fray (Hagee, Parsley, Falwell).
I am unsure of how the McCain idea is going to play with the economy issue. The gas tax holiday pander is going to be a problem for him. When it fails to materialize by the end of the summer his goose is going to be cooked on that front.
http://www.artba.org/economics_research/current_ issues/indiana-illinois_gas_tax_2001_.pdf
The health care issue for McCain is dead in the water since it basically does nothing for anyone. This becomes evident if you examine his refusal to back the GI bill put forth by Webb. Instead he has rolled out a political cover piece he calls his "GI bill" which does very very little for the Vets beyond what is already policy.
http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/webb-urges-m ccain-to-sign-onto-gi-bill-2008-03-19.html
Suggesting he will make CEOs accountable is equally a non starter since his campaign is essentially being run and substantially funded by lobbyist.
http://mediamattersaction.org/freeride/lobbyists /
The suggestion by McCain that the Supreme Court should continue to be packed with judges who would overturn R v W, put American citizens rights back 50 years and continue to allow politicians to use the Constitution as toilet paper is not politically popular right now. The American people view the legal system as broken so this does not play very well with them.
To be honest I don't know what platform McCain is running on other than to keep the war in Iraq going indefinitely.
A vote for Bush in 2000 is a minus not a plus in the mind of most voters in my estimation.
If you would like to know about Senator Obama's plans you can visit his web site under issues.
http://www.barackobama.com/issues/
My vote is for Senator Obama.
Posted by: Deward Bowles | May 10, 2008 1:49 PM
You don't give the Republican spin machine enough credit. They will twice and mangle the truth and will keep repeating their lies over and over until nobody recognizes what is real. The media will lap it up as they did in 2000, 2004 and during the start of the war. With real news no longer profitable they’ll chase the stocking headlines and weird sound bites to make their ratings and the GOP will feed them their lies like a child feeding their puppy. In the end the huge issues facing American and the world will be ignored, glossed over with fabrications about preacher’s sermons and flag pins, add hate and race which will be the new gay marriage since the fear and division are the Republican’s tried and method for winning elections. In the end McCain will win, Big Oil will continue to suck the life out of the middle class, crooked trade deals will drain the our jobs and the super rich will be richer leaving the broken middle class to fight the poor for the scrapes left behind.
Posted by: Jpe | May 10, 2008 1:59 PM
Gee, the Trib found a poll it liked, albeit by its leftwing cousin, the LA Times. But the Tribune totally ignored the recent Gallup poll which showed McCain beating both Dumbocrats handily. By the way, Trib, the Gallup Poll is cited in Steve Chapman's column today.
Posted by: Dexter | May 10, 2008 2:05 PM
While the popular vote is an interesting metric, the last two elections have reminded us that it's the electoral college that matters. Beating McCain requires the Democratic nominee to grab 270 electoral votes.
Karl Rove's state-by-state tracking poll shows that John McCain would lose to Clinton, but beat Obama. And like another poster has said, that's even without the Republican machine turned on the other candidate.
I think the Obama campaign and it's supporters are going to be eating their words for frankly driving Hillary's supporters out of the Democratic party. They need her voters much more than the other way around.
For all the rhetoric from the Democrats and their leaders about how it will be a united party come November, things appear to be heading in a very different direction. It's wishful thinking at best. Obama will pay the price for the divisive campaign, and frankly he deserves to pay it. He has fought for disenfranchising FL and MI, which will surely go to McCain, and there are only a couple of states he can hope to turn from red to blue come November. He's dug his own grave.
Posted by: shaneleopard | May 10, 2008 2:12 PM
I am a Democrat! an will vote for Hilary over McCain or McCain Over Obama.She can not screw itup no more then the last one did.Obama uses the black thing he is half white or did he forget and will forget all the whites
Posted by: Bob Martel | May 10, 2008 2:15 PM
Obama has never been vetted thanks to the lazy Press. This folly will cost us Democrats the election in Nov...If they had done it at the onset he would be toast and HRC would run against McCain and beat him...Everyone wants change and all the Obamanites are just handing the election to McCain/Bush 4 more years....If you want our Soldiers to come home vote for HRC...Forget which one you like best. Vote for the party....We have sunk under Republican Rule and will continue to do so...Rezko, Wright and all the others are just a taste of what's to come out if the MEDIA ever gets back to doing their real job. Which is to inform the people...
Posted by: kaye c. | May 10, 2008 2:18 PM
Obama has rarely been examined by the national press. But they're like schooling fish... they all go in one direction but they turn on a dime. Rest assured, after the Republicans gear up their campaign and shine a bright light on Obama's record, then that's where they'll go.
Bye-bye, Barack.
Posted by: MJ | May 10, 2008 1:22 PM
It's already been done and they/you failed.
Bye-bye, John McBush/MJ
Posted by: John E | May 10, 2008 2:22 PM
I'm an Obama supporter but am not smitten by him.
McCain, though a decent, mostly honorable guy, just has little to offer the average voter.
He's Bush minus the deceit and lies. And while he espouses environmental and other issues alien to most Republicans, he simply offers nothing regarding healthcare costs or practical energy ideas.
In the end, voters will be more willing to gamble on Obama than give McCain a third Bush term.
Posted by: Kevin | May 10, 2008 2:26 PM
Obama will pay the price for the divisive campaign, and frankly he deserves to pay it. He has fought for disenfranchising FL and MI, which will surely go to McCain, and there are only a couple of states he can hope to turn from red to blue come November. He's dug his own grave.
Posted by: shaneleopard | May 10, 2008 2:12 PM
HAHAHA!!!
-
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y2kyXN4ZVQg
Posted by: John E | May 10, 2008 2:34 PM
Nice try ! ......the Republicans have just been sitting back enjoying the show. Watching the Dem's destroy each other has been the best entertainment this year. Not a chance on God's green earth will this country put a radical like Obama in the White House. McCain and Republican "gains" in 08.
Posted by: joe | May 10, 2008 2:43 PM
To bad for the Democ"rats" the election is not TODAY.
Posted by: VJ Machiavelli | May 10, 2008 3:33 PM
And Bill Clinton was third in June 1992 losing to Peroit and Bush
Posted by: robin | May 10, 2008 3:39 PM
That's right and Dukakis was leading Bush Snr in all the polls as well. Keep believing the hype you pinko liberals, wait until you get slapped around, yet again. One day you will understand that this country has conservative values.
Posted by: Paul Frampton | May 10, 2008 3:44 PM
Keep believing the hype you pinko liberals,
Posted by: Paul Frampton | May 10, 2008 3:44 PM
Wow...how can you argue with that. I guess America has rocks for brains too. Say hi to your brother Peter.
Posted by: bill "Hussein" r. | May 10, 2008 4:08 PM
Lots of well thought out, intelligent post on this thread, except for Dexter (Bruce) and his same old tired rant.
I want to believe Mr. Bowles, because common sense dictates that things should play out that way. But recent experience tells me there's still enough ignorant, gullible people to succumb to the Swiftboating tactics that jpe describes.
MJ also makes a valid point, given the record of the last seven years, the GOP has no business even being competitive in a Presidential race, so why are they? I can think of a few reasons; brain-dead voters who will follow their Party off a cliff, Bruce, John D., Paulo, Jeff, Jerry White, Terry...Also the propaganda machine of Hate Radio and Faux News.
If McCain prevails, it will be business as usual. The next generation will be the first in America to see their standard of living drop. But don't expect to see the top 5% to suffer any.
Posted by: dt | May 10, 2008 4:16 PM
It sad to think that just because you are black it would be a mistake to to be President of the United States.I support change not change for the sake of change but change that will work!!! There has been plenty jobs given and lost because of skin color I believe Obama deserve the benefit of of all American to prove that he is up for the job not me only but of the millions that voted for him. He is a great American as all of us are. Let's vote him in for the sake of CHANGE in America fand time out from race baiting and pastors sermons to electing the best man for the job.
Posted by: Michael McKinney | May 10, 2008 4:43 PM
If poll numbers can be believed America is "Down the Tubes" for the next 4 years. GOD Help US !!!!
Posted by: Bud | May 10, 2008 4:48 PM
This is so misleading--we DON"T vote like the polls--The electoral college complicates things.
Hillary needs Barack.
And vice versa.
Posted by: Get Real | May 10, 2008 4:48 PM
Hey MJ where have you been throughout this election? While the press does give Obama some good press they certainly got on his case about Rev Wright, Rezko, and many other things.. Shut up already!
Posted by: Scot S. Blakeley | May 10, 2008 4:52 PM
Obama will get the nomination. He is leading now and has more delegates than Hillary.
Obama will beat McCain but Hillary will not beat him. Too many people who voted for her are Republicans and will vote for McCain if she runs against him.
I will never give her a vote even if she ran for the Dog Catcher's job.
I am white middle class and am backing Obama
Posted by: Elaine | May 10, 2008 5:22 PM
"The results represent a shift from a Times/Bloomberg poll in February, when McCain led Clinton by 6 percentage points and Obama by 2, within the poll's margin of error."
Take a wild guess which Tribune political blog DIDN'T publicize this LAT/Bloomberg February poll showing McCain leading, but publicizes above the same poll showing a Democrat lead?
Posted by: Bruce | May 10, 2008 8:07 PM
Anyone who can vote for the Rabid Right or Senator John " questionable conduct " McCain, are either deaf and dumb or they are fanatics and can't see the damage being done to America by this faulty way of voting!! Right now, America needs to vote for a Democratic candidate, if for no other reason than a change in the mindset of this nation. The last eight years have been terrible for most of us, Americans. I will not present the litany of blunders, misdeeds and out right lying that this administration has engaged in, we all know the litany!! If you want it repeated than vote for Senator John " questionable conduct " McCain!!!
SUPPORT OUR TROOPS, BRING THEM HOME, ALIVE. NOW.
Posted by: Don Fitzgerald, Chicago | May 10, 2008 11:54 PM
"Right now, America needs to vote for a Democratic candidate, if for no other reason than a change in the mindset of this nation. The last eight years have been terrible for most of us, Americans."
Posted by: Don Fitzgerald, Chicago | May 10, 2008 11:54 PM
Don Fitzgerald!! has inadvertantly pointed out what is a serious (ultimately fatal) flaw of the Democratic Party. Their impotence and irrelevance. Every Democratic victory for the past 30-plus years has been predicated on the electorate being PO'd at or tired of Republican stewardship... NOT because the Democrats have good ideas... because they have no ideas. So Democratic success is always short-lived.
Like the fromer day Whigs, the Democrats are irrelevant and they're ripe to be replaced.
THANK YOU FOR BOLSTERING MY ARGUMENTS, DON. YOU ALWAYS DO, EVEN IF YOU DON'T MEAN TO.
Posted by: MJ | May 11, 2008 10:52 AM
I don't believe any of the candidates are worthy of being President and after 30 years of voting in every election I will sit this one out.
This election is a joke and so are the candidates. It's a shame that we can not have a political party or a politician that would represent the publics best interest over that of special interest.
This government needs to be replaced and I believe most people, who are not brain washed, see that.
The current voting public continues to legitimize these career whores who will sell the American people down the road if it gains them money and political power.
Not one of them care about you, your jobs, your health, your retirement, or what ever else seems to plague the public during elections. All they care about is your vote and when elected will only further what the lobbyest and special interests want them to further.
You, the electorate, no longer matter after November and until the voters wake up, this trend will continue.
Posted by: A Average Joe | May 11, 2008 11:37 AM
Every Democratic victory for the past 30-plus years has been predicated on the electorate being PO'd at or tired of Republican stewardship...
THANK YOU FOR POINTING OUT WHY THE DEMOCRATS WILL WIN THIS YEAR.
Posted by: bill "Hussein" r. | May 11, 2008 12:27 PM
Every Democratic victory for the past 30-plus years has been predicated on the electorate being PO'd at or tired of Republican stewardship...
THANK YOU FOR POINTING OUT WHY THE DEMOCRATS WILL WIN THIS YEAR.
Posted by: bill "Hussein" r. | May 11, 2008 12:27 PM
And so your point is that you don't care about what's good for the nation or about being in the right, but only about winning. I already knew that about you so you didn't have to tell me.
By the way, Gomer, Dukakis was a shoo-in too.
Posted by: MJ | May 11, 2008 10:09 PM
And so your point is that you don't care about what's good for the nation or about being in the right, but only about winning.
Posted by: MJ | May 11, 2008 10:09 PM
Leave it to a republican to feel they know whats better for the American people than the American people themselves.
Posted by: bill "Hussein" r. | May 12, 2008 8:54 AM
I love it how the swamp only offers the polls up that show what they want it too. Rasmussen released the same poll on Sunday and McCain and Obama are in a dead tie at 48% each. Also CNN ran one with McCain up by 2% points in the same day. Gee I wonder why those polls were not mentioned.
Posted by: Vinny | May 12, 2008 9:31 AM
Obama is nothing but a face mask! MSNBC MEN wear so much makeup to cover up who they really are.They are AFRAID.They been trying to pull the pulg from day one on Sen.Clinton .Ohio she needs to get out. Texas,she need to get out, PA she needs to get out Indaina she needs to get out.Now saying it's Obama win.even befor the race is over.Thje truth is what msnbc msm and some of Obam's pundits knows the truth about Obama as well as some of our dnc members.Florida and michigan voters are giving no chance to have their voice hears,even if Howard Dean and (pepsi)because look waht's happening they been calling her to get out even whenshe has been ahead.They don't want her to get pass the rest of the races they reather call her out by useing msnbc msn in bashing with their pundits on the untruth.THEY HOLD BACK ON WHO obama really is why?because they do not want the change in our country.They want the contineing taking money from the american people with their lobbyist.The rules will never be change for the people who need the change for our country.I see what's gioing on.How can anyone stand up in a pa debate who could not handle any debate."I CAN'T BE HELD REPONSBIE FOR SOMEONE I KNEW WHEN I WAS 8.OK,OBAMA AYRES WORKED TOGETHER AS OBAMA WAS A CHAIRMAN AS WELL.THIS GUY AYERS WENT AN BOOMED OUR CAPITAL,TRADE CENTER.AND OBAMA CONTIUNE WORKING WITH HIM.BUT WILL MSNBC MSN SOME PRESS TELL YOU THE TRUTH?NO.SO WHY OF ALL THESE TERRORIST THAT OBAMA HAS BEN AND STILL IS WHY ARE THEY OVERLOOKING THE OBAMAS DEALING WITH THESE PEOPLE?WHY ARE THEY NOT PUTTING THE TRUTH OUT?TRESZO, AND SO MANY MORE.WHY ARE THEY PUTTING OUR COUNTRY AT RISK?SOME DNC MEMBERS AND MSNBS MSN HAVE SOMETHING IN IT FOR THEM.AND ARE OVERLOOKING THE REAL ISSUES OF WHAT MAY BE A DANEROUS TO OUER COUNTRY.OBAMA HAS RANNED A CHEATING CAMPAING,CAUGHT ON TAPE.HE HAS ALSO BEEN CAIGHT ON TAPE IN LIEING AND JUST TO TURN AROUND IN ANOTHER INTRVIEW WHEN ASK.I DIDN'T SAY THAT,I DIDN'T KNOW.IT WASN'T ME.OBAMA HAS PUT A TIGHT BL;ANKET OVER THE REAL ISSUES BY AVOIDING ISSUES THAT HE WILL BRING UP SOMETHING THAT HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH OUR ISSUES WE FACE TODAY.HE POINTS-TALKS ABOUT HILLARY MCCAIN TO GET HIMSELF OUT OF THE ISSUES WE FACE TODAY..HILLARY'S CAMPAIGN IS NOT OVER SHE HAS RANNED A FAIR HONEST CAMPAIGN.THE TRUTH IS THAT THEY ARE REAL AFRAID OF HIULLARY BECAUSE SHE WON'T LET THEM TAKE ANY LONGER FORM THE AMERICAN PEOPLE!LOOK WHAT HAPPENED 1999 CAMPAIGN O OF BUSH.THE NUMBERS WERE RUNNING TAGED INTO POLLS ARE TAGGED INTO.THERE IS A VIDEO OF OBAMAS PEOPLE AND NEWS WHO MADE MANY CALLS WATCHING THE POLLS AND SAYING WE GOT IT COVERERED VIDEO OF TEXAS PRIMARY'S AND CAUCAS OF VOTES BEING STOLEN BY THE WORKER AND PEOPLE COMING IN.MANY PEOPLE HAVE WATCHED THOSE VIDEO.MANY OF COPIES FOR ARTICALS SEM TO FALL OF THE FACE OF THE EARTH WHEN HONEST MEIDA/PRESS REPORT THEM. BY SOMEONE WHO DOES NOT WANT US TO KNOW.wATCH YOUR COMPUTER.PINK
Posted by: David | May 12, 2008 9:47 AM