by Mark Silva
Both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are virtually tied with Republican John McCain in national daily tracking polls that Gallup has been running, but an analysis of nearly 20,000 interviews conducted over the course of the month of March reveals the strengths that each holds among different voters.
“At this point….there would appear not to be a major difference in the overall strength that either Democratic candidate would bring to bear in the general election against McCain,’’ Gallup’s Frank Newport reports. “But...the way in which the two Democratic candidates arrive at that parity with McCain is quite different.’’
Obama fares better than Clinton among independent voters and Republicans, for instance, while Clinton fares better among white voters in general and Obama stronger among black voters.
Gallup looked at 19,076 interviews conducted between March 7 and 29, which makes for an exceptionally small possible margin of error, plus or minus one percentage point.
Both of the Democrats fare best among liberal Democrats, and “progressively worse among moderate Democrats, conservative Democrats, "pure" independents (who do not lean toward one party or the other), and moderate/liberal Republicans,’’ Newport, Gallup’s editor-in-chief, notes. “ They do worst among conservative Republicans.’’
Obama’s advantage over McCain among non-Hispanic black registered voters is 85 points, while Clinton's margin is 69 points. “In other words, while both Democrats dominate McCain among black voters, Obama has a significantly larger margin over McCain than does Clinton. (It appears that black voters are less likely to say they would vote for Clinton against McCain and more likely to say they don't have a preference between the two.)’’
Clinton fares slightly better than Obama against McCain among Hispanic voters.
“In general, Clinton does better among…. white Democrats against McCain than does Obama,’’ Newport writes. “The difference between Obama and Clinton is largest among conservative white Democrats. In fact, among this group, Obama manages to get only 50 percent of the vote to McCain's 35 percent, while Clinton wins by a much larger 68 to 25 percent margin.
“Obama makes up for this, however, with a stronger relative performance among independents and Republicans,’’ Newport notes. “While McCain outpolls both Clinton and Obama among "pure independents," Obama is somewhat more competitive with him among this group (trailing by 22 points, compared with 32 points for Clinton).
“McCain, of course, beats both candidates by significant margins among the two groups of Republicans used in this analysis. But again, Clinton loses by slightly larger margins than does Obama.
“At this point in the election cycle, there are more Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents than there are Republicans and Republican-leaning independents,’’ Newport says in summary. ‘McCain has been able to hold his own against the two Democratic candidates in the general election trial heat ballots in the face of this disparity mostly because he does very well among conservative Republicans and wins among independents.’’






Comments
Actions Speak Better than Words
Before the negative press regarding Mr. Wright, Mr Obama had on numerous occasions declared Mr. Wright as his mentor and spiritual teacher for the past 20 years and even went so far as to include Mr. Wright in his election staff, these are the actions of Mr. Obama. When the press found out about the Hitleresque personality of Mr. Wright, Mr. Obama’s staff writers immediately created a rebuttal of hyperbole that amazingly some people actually believed.
It is interesting to note, as soon the public became aware of the Obama/Wright connection, following a phone call to Mr. Wright from Mr. Obama, Mr. Wright was instantly silenced, retired and rewarded with a 1.6 million dollar home. Is there something more we are not supposed to hear from Mr. Wright?
And now Mr. Obama says he would distance himself from Mr. Wright because of Mr. Wight hateful message, but what about the other 20 years of Mr. Obama choosing to sit in the pew while Mr. Wright lectured? After 20 years of choosing to listen to Mr. Wright, Mr. Obama has just now come to conclusion that he wouldn’t listen to Mr. Wright starting now? Does Mr. Obama think we are stupid?
But regardless of what Mr. Obama’s staff has spun for Mr. Obama’s rebuttal, Mr. Obama cannot retract his clear public proclamation that Mr. Wright has been his mentor and spiritual teacher for over these past 20 YEARS. And that up to recent negative press, Mr. Wright was on Mr. Obama’s Spiritual Advisor Committee campaign team. There is no denying this.
And the Obama’s team efforts to downplay the violent rhetoric of Mr. Wright are like trying to make excuses for Hitler. Hitler and Mr. Wright both convey hateful and paranoid messages that should send shivers through the average American. The words of Mr. Wright are violent, hateful and terrifying. This should be a wake up call to every white, Jew, non-Christian, Christians of other faiths, government officials, peoples from other countries and so on. Didn’t Hitler do this too before unleashing his cruelty on the world?
If Obama made the choice to listen and learn from this so called spiritual mentor for over 20 years, do you expect me or any other rational being to believe that he wouldn’t be or want to be influenced by his ideas? And what does that say of Mr. Obama’s integrity?
Action is the real measure of a person, not their words. We know who Mr. Obama is by his life and choices, not the words he spins. And we can only imagine the amount of hatred Mr. Obama will unleash once he achieves ultimate power.
And also consider recent announcement that the chief of the firm involved in the State Department’s passport breach is one of Obama’s adviser. (And why is this not being discussed?) And that Obama has been caught lying about Rezko, regarding the amount of money Rezko gave him, and that Obama still hasn’t come clean about his Rezko land deal. Or further, how Michelle Obama makes a phenomenal $317.000 a month at a hospital in Chicago that is famous for turning away the poor, especially the black poor. And Michelle Obama’s separatist-racist connection to Farrakhan and Chicago's Trinity United Church trumpeting Barack Obama AKA Barack Hussein Obama as the second coming of the messiah. And Michelle Obama’s statement she “has never been proud to be an AMERICAN in her adult life".
And for those who don’t know that Obama campaign was originally funded by Islamic Extremist via the Food for Oil Program in Iraq, I suggest you read the following article:
http://www.americanthinker.com/2008/03/obamas_iraqi_oil_for_food_conn.html
If Obama were to become president, what would stop Mr. Obama from appointing Mr. Wright to his cabinet? And after Mr. Wright’s appointment, if anyone complained no doubt they would be called racist. And it seems as if this strategy - that it is racist to criticize a black man - is already in effect as Mr. Obama can do anything corrupt with minimal impunity by the public or the press.
But if Hillary so much as sneezes, she is taken through the laundry and hung out to dry and then beaten some more. Such an obvious bias treatment towards Mr. Obama because of his race is racial discrimination. And I believe another reason why Mrs. Clinton is unfairly criticized to such an extreme is because a handful of powerful men in the media can’t stand the idea of a woman for president – likely a libido thing.
We should have as our country’s leader someone with wisdom and knowledge, whose goal is the selfless betterment of the world. We should not elect someone with a personal agenda for personal power or select them because of the fashionably of their race or the preference for a gender.
With all the red lights in Mr. Obama’s resume, and all the hyperbole that he spins that keeps us from knowing the real Mr. Obama, are you sure this is the person best to lead our country? Should we gamble away the American future to a man who associates with and is taught by men who hate this country and its people?
Posted by: Thomas Richards | April 2, 2008 1:00 PM
Man, that graph is very misleading:
at first glance it looks as though Hillary beats McCain, but a closer look shows she does slightly worse than Obama against McCain.
On the graph on the right, the words below it are the opposite of the graph itself.
Posted by: greg | April 2, 2008 1:05 PM
Thomas don't be jealous because obama will be our next president.He will make a good president !
Posted by: heather | April 2, 2008 1:08 PM
The answer is really a no-brainer for the democratic party. Clinto & Obama
run on the same ticket. The party would win as a team ticket.
Reality seems to be a fight until the convention.
I believe in the democratic values, and hope to God the candidates make PEACE. This would be peace for the entire world since we are still on top.
The republicans would be happy if the war went on for 100 years.
God Bless,
Jim
Posted by: jim sawyer | April 2, 2008 1:12 PM
The tussle between Obama and Clinton is going to cast democrats a very dreadful fate. longer the primaries , more ghastly revelations about personal faith and beliefs. Z
Posted by: Gulzar khan | April 2, 2008 1:21 PM
Wright and Rezko, Wright and Rezko. If you folks can't really progress past that, then the notion that he's an electoral time-bomb waiting to happen becomes mostly the wishful thinking of die-hard Clinton supporters.
Hillary's lost because she seems to have a tin-ear for positive politics. She appeals to fears and anxieties, class divisions and racial, rather than inspiring people to disregard such differences and unite. In a country as tired of self-destructive division as ours, this is Obama's strength. He hasn't long ago written off the other side's supporters.
Posted by: Stephen Daugherty | April 2, 2008 1:28 PM
I really think we should only vote for those patriotic flag waving men and women that tell us how much they love us and this nation until they get in office. Once they're in office it's "bend over and grab your ankles" so they can show you how much they love you and this nation. God help us if Obama can do worse than those patriotic flag wavers that have us in this predicament we are in now. Only fools keep voting for the same kind of people and expect different results!
Posted by: Jim | April 2, 2008 1:29 PM
wow, thnx greg i work in opinion research and create charts/graphs/tables all day, and i misread that graph completely! so both dems are slightly behind mccain, but obama by slightly less.
Posted by: dk | April 2, 2008 1:35 PM
The 100 years remark was taken so far out of context that even the AP felt the need to correct the democrat candidates.
The poll's show McCain is the man most americans believe in.
Posted by: Jeff | April 2, 2008 1:36 PM
I’d like to respond to Thomas Richards on the tired Reverend Wright Bashing. I’m an Obama supporter for all the wrong reasons; I’m the first one to admit it. I even think Hillary Clinton has a better plan for governance. Edwards was’ even better if you ask me. But Presidential Elections are American Idolesque these days.
“Qui aime bien chatie bien.” A French saying meaning you should be the first to chastise the ones that you love. I wonder if I have to roll on the floor laughing or weep for you when you’re comparing Rev. Wright to Hitler. I don’t think Hitler’s ever called Germany out saying She(or It – Germany) will endure God’s punishment if she continues to commit evil.
You know, 9/11 was vile, evil etc. But that had to come from somewhere, friend. No one questions that. However, to some extent, you HAVE to admit that the US brought that on themselves though. Empowering Bin Laden, Providing undying support for Israel, committing what the Islamic world views over, over, and over as terrorism against them.
Posted by: Kiki Dravie | April 2, 2008 1:48 PM
I couldn't trust Obama according to fact that's exposed by the media. There might be much more that we don't know yet... By the way, we didn't even know his name until recently...
I don't know you, but for me, I wouldn't elect someone just emerged in front of my eyes as my leader.
Posted by: Faye | April 2, 2008 1:56 PM
Any Democrat should be polling far ahead of any Republican contender, and yet these two fluff balls are in a virtual dead heat with McCain.
Posted by: MJ | April 2, 2008 2:01 PM
If consider this as selecting a leader for your own family, who would you vote for? The one who claims he could do things better but without much history to support his claim? Or the one who has much more experience and also made some mistakes on the way (like everyone else)?
Posted by: Faye | April 2, 2008 2:06 PM
I liked Obama ok at the beginning- but something is just not quite right with how the Campaign has sold him to the public and with his record. He has been running for President for a very long time- playing the political game in Chicago and in the Democratic Party--he is an insider of the Party--has been for a very long time..so his presentation is at odds with the reality.
Hillary Clinton is Hillary Clinton--what you see is what you get. No smoking mirrors- she's been vetted.
I think the momentum is going to shift her way and she will be the Democratic Nominee.
It's like the Spring Fling with Obama is over!
Posted by: Evelyn | April 2, 2008 2:10 PM
The Bush/Clinton/Bush/Clinton dynasty has been a national nightmare. Hillary and GW are one and the same with their corporate connections and stubborn "we never quit" whether it's Iraq or a losing campaign. The Clintons seem determined to destroy the Democrats if they won't nominate her. They are the most divisive politicians in America.
Posted by: Layla | April 2, 2008 2:29 PM
wheres your polls i want to take them????????????
Posted by: Scher | April 2, 2008 2:32 PM
The Wright's relationship and his lack of experience in National security will be make him loose to McCain.
The reason why we don't hear much about it now, is because the mainstream media continues to favor Obama by either not vetting him or carry any negative news about him.
check out Lou Dobbs' show yesterday and see the report from the media ethics group, showing a obvious bias from the media towards Obama.
This is extremely harmful for both Obama personally and the party because it is better than we know now and have time to react, vs. loosing at the general election.
Posted by: vote4thebest | April 2, 2008 2:47 PM
I agree with Greg, the label to the graph on the right is very misleading. You should fix that.
Posted by: eduardo | April 2, 2008 2:50 PM
I find it interesting that the graph is depicted to mislead people into believing Clinton is slightly ahead. Sites like this should be shut down. Are we that simple minded to let extremist trick us into believing something that's clearly in front of us? Come on, switch the Clinton and McCain names around so as to not confuse the silly minded Clinton supporters into believing something that's not true. I can't wait for the Dems to make her the nominee, blacks will return to the republican party in droves!
Posted by: Loyd in California | April 2, 2008 2:58 PM
Evelyn wrote:
"Hillary Clinton is Hillary Clinton--what you see is what you get. No smoking mirrors- she's been vetted."
Has Hilary been vetted? We haven't seen her tax records or a list of the donors to the Clinton library (can anyone say donations for pardons?). Why is she holding off until after the April 22nd primary to release those tax records? I think there's a lot more vetting that needs to take place where Hilary is concerned.
Posted by: Paul | April 2, 2008 2:59 PM
Obama’s Economic Plan
In fact, what is far more worrisome than the Trinity Church "commitment to Africa" is Obama’s call for "economic parity."
Economic equality is the justification for an exploding welfare and entitlement state.
Economic parity implies government-coerced wealth redistribution, perpetual minimum wage increases; government subsidized health care for all and so on. Essentially this translates to socialize wages.
CNBC economic analyst Larry Kudlow estimates that Obama's vision for government-run everything will cost Americans $800 BILLION.
Obama was described in a 2004 Men’s News Daily Report during Obama's 2004 US Senate campaign:
Obama’s closest religious advisers and bible/political teacher -- Fr. (Michael) Pfleger, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright of Chicago's Trinity United Church of Christ, and Illinois State Sen. James Meeks, who moonlights as the pastor of Chicago's Salem Baptist Church – may have quotes from Scripture always handy, but are theologically closer to Karl Marx and black nationalism, than to Christianity.
Posted by: Richard Williams | April 2, 2008 4:03 PM
Kiki, I, for one, question whether or not 9/11 was "America's chickens coming home to roost" as Wright put it. I'll go to my grave saying nearly 3,000 innocent people did NOT deserve to die.
But please keep saying that Wright was right to say that. It will only help the other side. Despite what you may think Islamic radicalism does not "have to come from somewhere" as a reason for its existence. Its entire raison d'etre is irrational hatred of all things Western. Don't believe me? Ask Theo Van Gogh or any of the families of the people who died in 9/11. Or the USS Cole bombings. Or the embassy attacks. Or the Pan Am Flight 111. Or the London train bombings. Or the first World Trade Center bombings. If you're not too busy blaming America, that is.
Posted by: Jeff | April 2, 2008 4:21 PM
Dems: this election is a lock.
After all the flaps over the last month, and the lack of a nominiee, either candidate is running even with McCain in his golden honeymoon.
These 3-way polls are inherently flawed because both Obama and Clinton supporters still have a horse in the race. Asking a Clinton supporter whether he/she will vote for Obama is an inherently flawed question.
These polls are worse than meaningless until the Democrats have a nominee. From that point on, I doubt McCain will ever be able to stay within 10% of the Democratic nominee.
Republicans, are you getting ready for a long, cold, presidential winter?
Posted by: JTS | April 2, 2008 6:37 PM
Staying in a church for 20 years is not only based on the Pastor. How can we assume that all his sermons were "hateful'. I am a member of a church who has mostly not in agreement of how my pastor leads. I have not left because of him..........there are other factors involve that are pure and noble. Don't jump to conclusion on a few sound bites.
If you are Christian...remember Jesus spoke to hard even considered hateful words against the Jewish Political establishment of day.........and yes they crucified him...go ahead cast the first stone Thomas Richards.
Posted by: Rick - Toronto | April 2, 2008 10:46 PM
To suggest that any country has a 9/11 coming because of politics is cruel and downright lousy thinking. All countries have flip-flop positions with countries depending on best and worse case choices. In general, countries trying to do the right thing, make friends with those that normally they would find unpleasant but because the world has gone global the US and many other honorable countries must do business with slime. It appears that at some point Barack felt that being "friendly" with Rezko was in his best interest. Now he says that was a bonehead decision. I have news for Barack. Rezko is just the first of many characters that Barack will be forced to do business with if he is elected. US elections have become a circus. It is an opportunity to "get even", even though republicans and democrats live together in the same country. So for the past 8 years half the country has been very unhappy because the other party was in office. It would not have matter what did or didn't go right or wrong. It only matters to hate the other party. It is highly unlikely that McCain will become our next president. Rarely does the same party win a 3 term. So we swing back to the left and now the other half of the country is unhappy. I look at it all this way. If Barack gets elected and things in general improve then I win too. I want things to do well no matter who is in office. If things go badly the "happy" side of our country might finally realize that no matter how much a candidate promises it is extremely difficult to change the course of any country. Sometimes in theory something sounds good, but when put to the test the flaws start popping up. An example would be the well intentioned decision to move this country towards the use of ethanol. Gore brags he saved ethanol, but now many realize that subsidizing ethanol has been a huge mistake. Instead of growing corn for feed, we are growing corn to put in our cars and therefore causing food prices to rise rapidly. This has been a huge blunder because theory got in the way of logic. A moron should have known that we could not grow enough corn to both feed and fuel our cars and that everybody was going to suffer.
Posted by: Verycold | April 2, 2008 11:01 PM
With regard to the BO supporter who wrote Bush/Clinton/Bush/Clinton, how about Bush/peace & prosperity/Bush/clean up after Bush.
Pleeeze, what's with the graph comments. I got a C in math, and I got it!!! Follow the key!!!! Hello! Enough whining.
As for these polls about McCain leading.... big deal....it's a tied ballgame at this point meaning it's anybody's game. Too close to call. So Hillary, you go girl. Anyone watching the debates knows who's the best qualified for the job. BO is all beefcakes and no beef. Bring on the super delegates.
Posted by: michelle | April 2, 2008 11:27 PM
Thank you, Greg, for your keen observation about the bar graph's misleading information! If someone is color blind regarding greens, it will be even a tougher call to spot the captions' deception.
For those upset over the Rev. Wright flap, I recommend that we all look at the actions of the candidates to assess them. Obama wrote a book about his life leading up to Harvard Law School, when approached to do so when he became the first African-American to be elected to the position of editor-in-chief of the prestigious Harvard Law Review. Obama worked briefly as a corporate lawyer before deciding to leave New York to work as a community organizer and help the less fortunate in southside Chicago. He was an Illinois state senator for 8 years, before becoming a United States senator. During his campaign for U.S. senator, he argued against the United States going to war in Iraq, a bold position--backed with sound reasons.
Clinton worked for 15 years as a corporate lawyer. She did some public service work as First Lady of Arkansas. As First Lady of the United States, she tried to force universal health care, using a secretive approach that backfired, alienating both Democrats and Republicans in the process. She helped bring some women's groups together during the England/Ireland negotiations, and later claimed a greater role than she actually had.
McCain was a terrible student and a lackluster serviceman during the Vietnam War. He had the misfortune of having been captured after being shot down. He stayed a POW longer than he had to, because he chose to follow the "last in, last out" guidelines, rather than leave after a relatively brief stay when his captors learned his dad was THE admiral in their area. He served in the U.S. Congress for many years, during which time he had some notoriety for his inappropriate conduct regarding the Keating criminal matter. He's known for his volatile temper and inappropriate language on the floor of the Senate. Upon his return home from Vietnam, he left his first wife, who had been very injured in an accident while he was in the service, and began an affair with his current wife before he divorced his first wife. His second wife comes from a very wealthy family, which had connections with the Keatings.
Posted by: laura q | April 2, 2008 11:46 PM
Had Obama been beating McCain this article would have been at the top and the wording would have been Obama beats McCain....McCain beating Clinton.
However, since the poll shows Clinton is beating McCain the article now says ...they are practically tied and the article is at the very bottom of the page.
Additionally the article continues to manipulate the viewer by emphasizing Obamas plus and only focusing on Clintons negatives.
What happened to the reporters and columnist of before who were fair and balance?
Does the media think we don't notice these things?
This continued bias towards Obama is getting old...so please be fair and do the right thing!
Posted by: ann | April 3, 2008 3:37 AM