by Mark Silva
For the first time in a month, Sen. Hillary Clinton holds a “statistically significant’’ advantage over Sen. Barack Obama nationally in the daily tracking pools of the Gallup Organization.
Sen. John McCain, the Republican Party’s presumptive nominee, also holds an advantage over either of the two Democratic candidates in the latest survey – including a statistically significant advantage over Obama, a first for the Arizona Republican in Gallup’s tracking.
The two Democrats had been locked in a statistical tie nationally since Super Tuesday, yet Obama has held a marginal lead over Clinton in several of the polls, most recently March 11-13.
The turn could reflect the controversy that has surrounded Obama since the words of his longtime pastor in Chicago gained public attention last week. However, they do not reflect what impact the senator from Illinois may have had with his speech on race and unity in Philadelphia this week. The latest survey results come from three-day surveys taken through Tuesday.
“John McCain may be benefiting in the short-term from the highly charged Democratic race,’’ Gallup’s Jeff Jones reports. “He holds a statistically significant lead over Obama, 47 percent to 43 percent in registered voters' preferences for the general presidential election.
“That is the first time any of the candidates has held a statistically significant lead since Gallup Poll Daily tracking began reporting on the general election,’’ Jones reports. “McCain's 48 percent to 45 percent advantage over Clinton is not statistically significant, but it is the first time he has had an edge over her in Gallup Poll Daily tracking.
The March 16-18 test of Obama and Clinton included 1,209 registered voters, with a possible margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points. The March 16-8 test of McCain against each of the two Democrats included 4,376 voters, with a possible margin of error of 2 percentage points.
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Comments
wow... how do you like them apples? I won't get too excited, but good to see its at least a race!
Honestly, when I voted for Romney in the primary, it felt like I was just teeing up a ball for the dems to wack... but these recent polls are offering some hope to us Repubs.
Posted by: Steve Hussein S | March 20, 2008 10:04 AM
OK Brucie - here is the type of poll that The Swamp never publishes.
Happy now?????
Posted by: BobinATL | March 20, 2008 10:16 AM
McCain's rise is not surprising. The cost of gasoline is not going up as fast as the cost of dignity for Hillary Clinton......
http://thefiresidepost.com/2008/03/20/hillarys-dignity-tank-is-on-empty/
Posted by: Ohg Rea Tone | March 20, 2008 10:23 AM
The Reuters poll has McCain up 46 to 40 over Obama and 48 to 40 over Clinton. Rasmussen polls also show trouble for both Democratic candidates against McCain.
Posted by: John D | March 20, 2008 10:27 AM
Looks like the 'experience' factor is finally taking place.
Or, the reverend factor...
Or, the Rezko factor....
Paulo
Posted by: Paulo | March 20, 2008 10:40 AM
Black people can want and hope all they want in America - THEY WILL NEVER GET A BLACK PRESIDENT. Obama is as close to perfect as you will ever get to a candidate, but Nothing and Noone BLACK will EVER be enough for America. Now ask yourself - where would Jeremiah get those crazy notions from??? He must be crazy to call America racist.
Posted by: Keith Lifetime Southsider | March 20, 2008 10:41 AM
Obama is going to lose. With all the info coming out on his pastor, he will be not be able to defend himself. The voters and media are starting to catch on to him.
Posted by: MK | March 20, 2008 10:56 AM
Johnny D:
And all those polls had Giuliani winning the Republican nomination 6 months ago.
Once this is a one on one contest, then we will see what happens.
Posted by: BobinATL | March 20, 2008 11:14 AM
It appears Obama's speech, hailed by the media as the greatest speech since Christ's Sermon on the Mount, the speech Swamp scribbler Frank James called "genius", moved people....
To vote against Obama.
Obama is falling in all the polls, among every demographic--except newspaper reporters, where his support remains at 99%.
Posted by: Dunham | March 20, 2008 11:15 AM
I suppose if Obama were a practicing Catholic lot of people would be branding him a pedophile...
Posted by: Jim | March 20, 2008 11:32 AM
Silva still love polls! Good to know he's being consistent.
Posted by: Jeff | March 20, 2008 12:14 PM
Dunham: did you happen to notice the timing of the polls, i.e., that they were taken BEFORE his speech?
Posted by: tony.s | March 20, 2008 12:21 PM
I suppose if Obama were a practicing Catholic lot of people would be branding him a pedophile...
Posted by: Jim | March 20, 2008 11:32 AM
Only if he sat, watched and did nothing to stop the crime-
And then lied about not seeing the crime-
And then faked all of the disciples with a " this is everyones issue " speach-
Thank you might have a point.
Posted by: heartburn | March 20, 2008 12:48 PM
My gay-dar must be malfunctioning today... i thought John Weiner E would be all over this thread.
Posted by: Steve Hussein S | March 20, 2008 4:42 PM
Good point, Tony, Obama's numbers are definitely worse now after that CYA speech.
Posted by: Jeff | March 20, 2008 4:46 PM
As much as I don't like Mac's policies, they do seem suited to Californians. If he wins there, and Hispanic voters are ardently anti-Obama, it is game over. National polls are just filler.
Posted by: whatnow | March 20, 2008 6:02 PM
When is John McCain going to leave the Baptist church which is bigotted against homosexuals? When is every sermon of his Baptist minister going to be examined for anti-gay hate speech?
Posted by: Michael | March 20, 2008 6:18 PM