by Christi Parsons
COLUMBIA, S.C.-So just how well does Barack Obama have to do in this state's primary to score a "win" today?
It depends on whom you ask, of course. Sen. Hillary Clinton this week has tried implicitly to downplay expectations for her own performance, continuing her campaigning in Feb. 5 precincts and making a few strategic touchdowns in the Palmetto State.
And Clinton aides this afternoon are reminding everyone of Obama's large lead in voter opinion polls.
But the Obama camp recalling the lessons of the New Hampshire primary; even when the poll numbers suggest Obama is doing pretty well, you can't underestimate the power of the Clinton operation to turn out votes.
Also, don't forget that Bill Clinton has been working the small towns of South Carolina vigorously this week. Bubba's not bad on a Southern stump, and could help his wife cut into Obama's support.
That makes it all the harder to guess what today's turnout -- quite healthy, from the latest reports -- portends for either side.
In any case, with African American voters poised to play such a crucial role in the voting, Obama needs to perform pretty well to meet expectations.
Voter surveys suggest black voters may favor Obama by as much as 5-to-1 -- no small matter, if African Americans cross the halfway mark in the number of Democrats who show up to vote today.
And don't forget the role John Edwards supporters will play today. The South Carolina native is back by double-digits in the polls, but he's hoping a decent showing could keep hope alive among his core of progressive backers as the three Democrats head into the 20-plus state primary a week from Tuesday.
Notables to keep an eye on: Will Obama's demonstrated strength among white voters hold up in South Carolina? And what will happen to the storyline of the gender gap on Sunday morning?
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Comments
There has been talk about a "reverse Bradley effect". The Bradley effect is where a white voter will tell a poller they might vote for a black candidate, knowing that they won't, because they don't want to admit their bias to another person. Apparently, there is a discrepancy in S.C. polls between automatic surveys and those with live people doing the interviewing. The automatic surveys show that the Obama support among blacks is more like 80% and that he has single-digit support among whites. It will be interesting to see what the outcome of today's polls are, if there are demographics available.
I wonder how many voters will be throwing their votes away on John Edwards today. He's turning out to be a real source of confusion about the voters who vote based on gender, race and regionalism. I wonder how long it's going to take, after today's election, before he starts being ridiculed publicly for running as the ineffectual token white male.
Posted by: Annette Keller | January 26, 2008 2:04 PM
I do not want Obama to get sucked into the petty misrepresentations and ugliness that the Clintons bring up. They are much better at nastiness. He is better at issues. Obama should stick to the issues and to his themes. They finally give us some hope.
Posted by: deborah gray | January 26, 2008 2:19 PM
I don't care what people think about the Clintons. Hillary I believe can get this mess cleaned up with G.W BUSH!!!! People are afraid of that... We can't change the system right away because the American People need to change the system... STOP LOOKING FOR A SAVIOR LIKE EDWAEDS & OBAMA WHO HAVE NO IDEA WHAT IS AHEAD OF THEM.. BABY POLITICS IT'S GOING TO BE FOR THEM... REALLY!! START LOOKING FOR THE BEST LEADER WHO CAN START THIS HEALING PROCESS OF THE AMERICAN PEOPLE AND GET IT DONE WITH IN FOUR YEARS. A I don't want a new puppy back or white , male or female it does not matter that will have to be trainned to run this country!!! I'm just saying what Hillary dose not have Bill dose and he will surround Hillary with the best advisors and HELP THIS COUNTRY GET BACK ON THEIR FEET... I THINK IF YOU GIVE HILLARY A CHANGE SHE WILL SHOW HER SKILLS , KNOWLEDGE AND EXPERIENCE TO CHANGE USA FOREVER.. SHE'S YOUR LEADER...JUST GIVE HER A CHANCE....
Posted by: lori | January 26, 2008 2:45 PM
Barack should tell us which ideas made the republicans deserve the title, the "party of ideas".
-FJ Stratford.
(About me: I am a person of innovation, because I am a person. Nevermind that I wont tell you what innovations I have done.)
Posted by: FJ Stratford | January 26, 2008 3:08 PM
First, Hillary has been elected to how many offices? If being a spouse counts as experience, well, then I need to add some experience to my resume.... Have you seen the nice picture of Hillary pressing Rezko flesh? How about her refernces to Reagan in her recent book? Go read the whole quote by Barack. While he said the Republicans were the party of ideas, he also said they were tired ideas. As far as Clintons supporting women lets talk about Bill's first nomination for Attorney General. A woman. Who he did not support when the question of her hiring of 2 illegal aliens to work in her support staff came up. In fact he first denied knowing about it. Which was a complete lie. Lets talk more about all the minorities in Bills cabinet. Oh thats right, GWB has hired more than anyone in history. So if you want another 4 years of lies vote for Hillary.
Posted by: jbrady | January 26, 2008 3:21 PM
If Obama didn't have to fight the 'ignorance' half his battle would already be won!
Posted by: RuthieM | January 26, 2008 3:25 PM
So far, the only good thing I have observed in this democratic primary election is in the progressive wing of the party. So far, the youth, and educated men and women in america, regardless of skin color are overwhelmingly voting in vavor of change. They have rejected the destructive ways of the past being offered by the Clintons. It is a look into the future of our country, and it is a very promising one. The world is taking notice and they are waiting for clean leadership from America. Barrack Obama is a breath of fresh air.
Posted by: Julio | January 26, 2008 3:30 PM
Clinton won NH by 3 percentage points after leading by 20 at one point. Yet the media crowned her the "comeback Queen" because she was "trailing" going into election day.
Clinton later won the popular vote (like Al Gore) but lost the delegate count in NV and was declared "the winner." Huh?
It's the press, baby. It will spin what it wants to spin.
The truth is, if Obama wins by 1 percentage point, he wins.
Super Tuesday will be the tell-all.
NOTE TO OBAMA: Stick to the issues and let the Clintons continue to make fools of themselves. Bill esp. has no cred. He was "a big disappointment." Remind the voters that Bill was "a big disappointment" (i.e. couldn't keep his pants on). That will shut him up.
Posted by: Bud McFarlin | January 26, 2008 4:18 PM
FJ,
Perhaps you should ask Bill or Hillary Clinton....they have both had glowing things to say over the years.
As a matter of fact, in 2002, BILL CLINTON HIMSELF said the republicans had all the ideas, and the reason dems lost was because dems needed to come up with some good ideas, too.
Posted by: jds | January 26, 2008 4:47 PM
As an Obama supporter, I would just say that Mr. Edwards has certainly earned this moment, that he is enthusiastic and has good things to say. His results should be taken seriously and give some speculators pause to see how those votes might be applied to delegates, where applicable, and later perhaps to osome of the other candidates. Also one would hope that, however this turns out, that both Mr. and Mrs. Edwards would have important roles to play in the next Democratic administration.
Posted by: Robert Campbell | January 26, 2008 5:44 PM
Mrs. Clinton should be address as Mrs. Clinton. People are a little to friendly. And Osama sound like obama. Are you kidding me!
Posted by: Carl R. Callison | January 26, 2008 6:08 PM
everybody vote for obama he the best
Posted by: dominique | January 26, 2008 6:11 PM
Both Bush and Bill Clinton are named after presidents.
They must be alike.
That is just as stupid as NOT voting for someone because their name sounds like someone else.
George Washington is revered. Will George Washington Bush be revered as well?
Posted by: preatorius | January 26, 2008 6:38 PM
KENNEDYS TREND ... OBAMA !!!
CAROLINE KENNEDY SCHLOSSBERG, THE LAST SURVIVOR OF THE CAMELOT WHITE HOUSE, IS SET TO PASS THE TORCH TO A NEW MESSENGER OF HOPE ... SEN. BARACK OBAMA !!!
Posted by: Martin Edwin Andersen | January 26, 2008 8:36 PM
The Clintons just got stomped in SC. The rest of America is seeing right through them. It's not even Hillary anymore. Bill is completely stealing the spotlight from her, and nobody wants to see him anymore. Bill should have just run for president again. He probably would have won, but he is absolutely pulling down his wife now.
Posted by: karl | January 26, 2008 9:00 PM
While Hillary says she's taking her campaign to American Samoa, Obama-mania is sweeping Indian reservations around the country ...
Indian Country Could Back Obama on Super Tuesday
New America Media
Ketaki Gokhale
Jan 24, 2008
Editor's Note: Barack Obama is doing well with Native American voters, but - perhaps more significantly - the exciting race is having an empowering effect on Native communities across the country.
Barack Obama is big in Indian Country ...
He has ... somehow, managed to capture the imagination of Indian Country, say Native American commentators and community activists.
Whether that wave of goodwill is enough to carry him to "Super Tuesday" primary victories in the states of Alaska, New Mexico, Oklahoma, North Dakota and Arizona, remains to be seen.
"Obama represents a break from the old"something fresh and new," says Paul DeMain, managing editor of the Northern Wisconsin-based newspaper News from Indian Country. "Native people are looking at him as someone who can empathize with other people of color." ...
Over in Nebraska, Kevin Abourezk, a reporter with the Lincoln Journal Star and a prominent Native affairs blogger, agrees. "Obama is appealing to younger voters across the ethnic spectrum. He"s just exciting, and he harkens back to people like John F. Kennedy." ...
A recent column in Indian Country Today, however, argued that Obama is reaching out to Native Americans, and that he is the only candidate to have a page on his website dedicated to his Native American supporters. The site, First Americans for Obama, includes a post on a bill Obama cosponsored last year that aims to improve the Indian Health Service, a federal program that operates medical clinics and hospitals on Indian reservations.
The close race between Clinton and Obama ... had an empowering effect on Native communities across the country.
In states like Alaska, where 16 percent of the population is Native Alaskan, New Mexico, where 10.2 percent of the population is Native, and Oklahoma, where is 8.1 percent of the population is Native, the way Indian Country votes, if it votes as a bloc, could influence the Democratic Party pick for a presidential nominee.
Compounding the political strength of Indian Country is the strong Democratic streak that runs through it. ...
Posted by: Martin Edwin Andersen | January 26, 2008 9:57 PM