New Iowa Poll expected tonight: The Swamp
 
The Swamp
-
Posted December 31, 2007 7:30 AM
The Swamp

by John McCormick

DES MOINES – It is one of the worst kept political secrets in this town: the last Iowa Poll before Thursday's Iowa caucuses is expected to be online this evening, before it is published Tuesday in The Des Moines Register.

As the most closely watched and respected measure of public opinion in the state, the poll will likely have significant influence on the media storyline in the final days of campaigning in the first-in-the-nation-caucus state.

The paper traditionally runs a tracking graphic that shows how support measured each night (typically at least two or three) that the telephone bank was dialing for poll participants.

Any positive trend from night to night in that graphic will likely be seized on by the media as a sign of "momentum" or a "surge" heading into caucus night.

With a significant number of voters still believed to be undecided in both the Democratic and Republican contests, the poll could give those people help in making their decision, if they want to go with a "winner."

The media is awash in polls of likely Iowa caucus participants, a difficult sample to find under the best of conditions, much less during a holiday week like the one we are in the middle of now.

A Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll released last week had Sen. Hillary Clinton leading in Iowa at 31 percent, followed by former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards at 25 percent and Sen. Barack Obama at 22 percent. The poll was conducted from Dec. 20-23 and Dec. 26-27.

A Reuters/C–SPAN/Zogby poll released over the weekend, meanwhile, also showed Clinton ahead in Iowa, also with 31 percent, followed by Obama at 27 percent and Edwards at 24 percent. On the Republican side, the poll showed a re-tightening race in Iowa between former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckebee and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

A McClatchy-MSNBC poll, also released over the weekend, showed Edwards at 24 percent, Clinton at 23 percent and Obama at 22 percent, while Romney was just ahead of Huckabee.

They are all different polls, with different results and different methodologies.

USA TODAY, a Gannett newspaper like the Register, jumped the gun just a bit on announcing the release of the Iowa Poll, when it reported in its Friday edition that the poll was "due in Sunday's editions" of the local paper.

It is possible that was the original intended publication date, but perhaps finding enough -- and the right mix -- of likely caucus participants is taking longer than expected this holiday week.

Watch the Swamp this evening for a posting on the Iowa Poll numbers.

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Comments

It's pretty obvious that the people here who suport Obama do so only because of his winning smile and smooth patter.

Educate yourselves, folks. Become informed electors, rather than sheep.

To that end, I present the following informative pieces published by respected mainstream publications earlier this year.

Barack Obama Inc.: The birth of a Washington machine
http://www.harpers.org/archive/2006/11/0081275

PACs and lobbyists aided Obama's rise
http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2007/08/09/pacs_and_lobbyists_aided_obamas_rise/


Barack Obama for President.

It's time for America to Rise and Shine again.


"HUCKABEE SPEAKS"

IOWAINS, I WAS WITH GEORGE BUSH ON EVERYTHING. I WAS WITH GEORGE BUSH ON 0/11. I WAS WITH GEORGE BUSH ON THE MORNING OF KATRINA IN ARIZONA GETTING THE ELDERLY TO SIGN UP FOR A 250.00 BY AMERICAN ONLY PRESCRIPTION DRUG RIPOFF. I WAS WITH GEORGE BUSH, ON THE PATRIOT ACT, I WAS WITH GEORGE BUSH ON EVERY VETO, EVERY NEW QUARTELY BILLIONS OF DOLLARS EMERGENCY SPENDING MEASURES. I WAS WITH GEORGE BUSH FLYING OVER KATRINA. I WAS WITH GEORGE BUSH DURING HIS MILITARY DAYS, I WAS WITH GOERGE BUSH THE MORNING HE DECIDED TO GO AWOL.

I WAS, I WAS, I WAS, I WAS, I WAS, THE ONE WHO AGREED TO ISOLATE THOSE BLACK FOLKS, THOSE GAYS, THOSE LESBIANS, THOSE MEXICANS THAT HAVEN'T ATTESTED TO BEING HERE ILLEGALLY. I WAS I WAS I WAS.

I WAS WHO CLEANSED DAVID VITTER OF HIS PROSTITUTIONAL WAYS. I WAS THE PREACHER AKA EVANGELICAL NOT ON OXYCONTIN THAT CONSOLED LARRY CRAIG. IT'S OKAY TO BE GAY. IT'S OKAY TO BE GAY. I TOLD HIM. I DID NOT ROMNEY OR GUILLIANI OR THAT ABSENTEE STATESMAN FROM ARIZONA, WATERBORDED JOHN MCCAIN.


Wow, those articles are pretty powerful and reveal some damning things about Obama. I am in shock.


@ Charles Scumbag:

"It's pretty obvious that the people here who suport Obama do so only because of his winning smile and smooth patter."

The only obvious thing going on here is that you are a product of inbreeding - who knows absolutely nothing about politics. Silly rabbit, tricks are for kids.

"Educate yourselves, folks. Become informed electors, rather than sheep."

That would be great advice, if you could at least provide some links proving your point. But the links that you provided fail miserably - total shocker.


Obama 08'


God has sent someone to deliver this country and unfortunately it is a Black man.

He is clean and has great candor and character.

But because he is black many won't vote for him. At the end we will only have our selves to blame.

Vote your heart not what the media tells you.


Your websites are very deceptive and bend the truth a great deal. The ethanol part is very disturbing to me. Although it isn't the most efficient to use corn the money spent on ethanol gets paid to farmers which spend the money 6-7 times over in the community and has had major economic value. It has raised food prices but what prices didn't go up. You raise minimum wage prices are going to go up. Mrs. Clinton calls to raise it more if elected which will only raise inflation more. The great thing about ethanol is that it is helping OUR economy and not going to some middle east country. I will say the payments that farms receive are unfair and big factory farms reap the benefits and that needs to be changed.


Obama is the most sincere of the candidates despite whatever hit pieces others want to run on him. I've had a chance to meet them all now, and kicked Obama's tires three times looking for any leaks. There are none. He is the real deal. And he will lead this country forward in profound ways.


Obama is the most sincere of the candidates despite whatever hit pieces others want to run on him. I've had a chance to meet them all now, and kicked Obama's tires three times looking for any leaks. There are none. He is the real deal. And he will lead this country forward in profound ways.


"That would be great advice, if you could at least provide some links proving your point."

Posted by: jay | December 31, 2007 2:29 PM


John E, it comes as no shock to me (and probably nobody else) that you can't understand these links... too, too many words and not enough pictures, right?


Hey, as long as we're stirring the cesspool called Obama's Recent Past, let's not forget that lovable rascal, Tony Rezko!

Obama's Rezko ties deeper than land deal
http://www.suntimes.com/news/politics/184540,122306obama.article


Obama's a great guy, and candidate, but he's running too much on a 'Mr. Nice Guy'/can't we all just get along platform. He's not short on specifics, but Hillary is significantly stronger. It's time to stop electing presidents based on who we'd like to hang out with. In a weird way, Obama is like a dem version of W - he's the 'feel good guy'. Emotion has a place in politics, but not at the expense of effectiveness and results, especially after the last 8 years.


Barack Obama Inc.: The birth of a Washington machine
http://www.harpers.org/archive

PACs and lobbyists aided Obama's rise
http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2007/08/09/

_____________________________
Yeah we can see YOU have no agenda!


Obama is the most sincere of the candidates despite whatever hit pieces others want to run on him. I've had a chance to meet them all now, and kicked Obama's tires three times looking for any leaks. There are none. He is the real deal. And he will lead this country forward in profound ways.

Posted by: Mike in Iowa | December 31, 2007 4:02 PM

Great posting Mike.

Why is it we never see this type of common sense intelligent comment from one of our regular wing nut contributors in regards to the Republican candidates?


Obama seems sincere, but I think the only qualified candidate who stays on the issues without fear is Ron Paul. The others seem like robots sold out to special interest groups and corporations.


I smell a rat, along with Huckabee's comments for today regarding McCain's heroism:…………..THERE WAS ALSO a weird display of clumsy Machiavellianism Sunday morning. On ABC, McCain claimed to be profoundly disturbed by Romney's attacks on Huckabee, who he called "a good man." At the same time on Fox, Huckabee was claiming to be profoundly disturbed by Romney's attacks on McCain, who Huckabee likewise described as "a good man."


You don't smell a rat, you smell a politician.


the latest poll is here and it is accurate as always..
here is the link
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071231/NEWS09/71231044/-1/iowapoll07#pluckcomments

you can start reading it ...

Obama was the choice of 32 percent of likely Democratic caucusgoers, up from 28 percent in the Register's last poll in late November, while Clinton, a New York senator, held steady at 25 percent and Edwards, a former North Carolina senator, was virtually unchanged at 24 percent.

The poll reflects continued fluidity in the race even as the end of the yearlong campaign nears. Roughly a third of likely caucusgoers say they could be persuaded to choose someone else before Thursday evening. Six percent were undecided or uncommitted.

The poll also reveals a widening gap between the three-way contest for the lead and the remaining candidates. No other Democrat received support from more than 6 percent of likely caucusgoers.

The findings mark the largest lead of any of the Democratic candidates in the Register's poll all year, underscoring what has been a hard-fought battle among the three well-organized Iowa frontrunners.


It is also the only recent poll of Iowa caucusgoers showing Obama with a lead larger than the survey's margin of sampling error, which is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

The telephone survey of 800 likely Democratic caucusgoers was taken Dec. 27-30.

In an indication of the Obama's appeal in Iowa, Democratic caucusgoers say they prefer change and unity over other leadership characteristics. Selecting a candidate who represents a sharp departure from the status quo is 56-year-old Lansing Democrat John Rethwisch's priority, and his main reason for backing Obama.

"I have been seeing more and more something Kennedy-esque coming from Obama," said Rethwisch, Lansing's water and sewer administrator. "But it's always a gamble when you get somebody in there who hasn't got a proven track record."

Thirty percent of the poll's respondents said a candidate's ability to bring about change is the most important, followed by 27 percent who said their priority is choosing a candidate who will be the most successful in unifying the country.

Asked which candidate would do the best on these themes, caucusgoers most commonly name Obama. The first-term U.S. senator has argued in the closing weeks of the campaign that his newness to Washington, D.C., would help him bridge a politically divided nation and improve its standing overseas.

Having the experience and competence to lead, which has been the crux of Clinton's closing argument, was seen as the most important to 18 percent of caucusgoers, with Clinton as the candidate most commonly rated best on this trait.

The candidates routinely argue they are the best able to win in November, although only 6 percent of the poll's respondents identified being best able to win the general election as the top priority.

Rethwisch is also part of the majority of caucusgoers who plan to attend their first caucus Thursday. Sixty percent would be attending for the first time, reflecting the emphasis the campaigns have put on expanding the pool of participants.

All of the three leaders in Iowa draw a majority of support from new caucusgoers, although Obama benefits the most with 72 percent of his support coming from first-timers compared to 58 percent of Clinton's and 55 percent of Edwards'supporters.

Longtime Democrat Darlene Inman, 72, is a first-time caucusgoer who supports Clinton. The Mason City retired homemaker represents the heart of Clinton's support base, older women who are registered Democrats.

"She talks straight about helping everybody. She tells it like it is," Inman said.

Inman said she first motivated to participate in the caucuses because of dissatisfaction with President Bush. But she said she hesitated to back Clinton until she settled on her as the most qualified, in part because of her association former President Clinton.

"I was kind of doubtful, but then I stopped and thought that when Bill Clinton was president, jobs were plentiful and the country was running well," Inman said. "With Bush in there, it's been very worrisome and I think she can get in there and turn it around."

Clinton has made an aggressive effort to court female, first-time caucusgoers, especially younger women and those who are retired. Women account for 58 percent of caucusgoers, according to the survey.

Clinton has rebounded among female caucusgoers in general, pulling even with Obama at 32 percent after losing her edge among this key group to him in the previous Register poll.

Clinton receives more support from women 55 years old and older than her rivals, and she and Obama draw evenly from the pool of female caucusgoers between 35 and 54 years old.

However, she trails Obama badly among women under 35, with just 15 percent to his 57 percent.

Obama's advantage among younger women reflects his decided advantage among younger voters in general. A majority of caucusgoers under 35 support Obama, more than three times the support Edwards receives from them and five times Clinton's.

Caucusgoers under the age of 35 represent 17 percent of likely attendees, higher than any Register poll this year but lower than any other age group.

Clinton led narrowly in the Register's October poll, but slipped in the survey taken in late November. During that period Obama and Edwards sharpened their criticism of Clinton, who has led in national polls of Democratic preference. Likewise, Clinton went on the attack in November, questioning Obama's experience and characterizing his health care proposal as less than comprehensive.

Clinton remains the favorite of the party faithful, with support from a third of self-described Democrats. However, Obama is the clear choice of caucusgoers who affiliate with neither the Democrat or Republican parties, with roughly 40 percent of them backing him in the survey.

The support from non-Democrats is significant because a whopping 40 percent of those planning to attend described themselves as independent and another 5 percent as Republican. Only registered Democrats can participate in the caucuses, although rules allow participants to change their party registration on their way in to the caucuses.

Edwards' support has changed little since the last poll, when he was the choice of 23 percent of likely caucusgoers. He led the Register's May poll with 29 percent.

He remained the choice of older men and drew evenly with Clinton from caucusgoers 55 and older.

One such Democrat, 84-year-old Ruth Paulsen of Milford, said Edwards' charisma and message of economic fairness appeals to her.

"I like the way he speaks, with energy and enthusiasm," said Paulsen. "The others are all right, but I like Edwards because he talks the most about change."

Despite aggressive campaigns in Iowa by Delaware Sen. Joe Biden, Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, none has been able to break into the pack at the top. In fact, support for Biden and Richardson slipped somewhat in the new poll.

An analysis of likely caucusgoers' second choices showed that the results would change little if the votes for the lower-rated candidates were redistributed among the front-runners.


Barack Obama Inc.: The birth of a Washington machine
http://www.harpers.org/archive

PACs and lobbyists aided Obama's rise
http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2007/08/09/

_____________________________
Yeah we can see YOU have no agenda!

Posted by: rncbs | December 31, 2007 5:54 PM


Wrong, I certainly do have an agenda. And thank you for reposting these links!


As a member, in good standing, of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, I prefer to refrain from making judgments regarding Mitt Romney’s eternal salvation. I can, however, submit that Romney, in my view and based upon the intimate knowledge I have regarding Romney’s Latter-day Saint faith, is an unethical and dishonest politician. I cloud go on and on about the many dishonest and unethical things Romney has said and done as a politician. Suffice it to say, for Latter-day Saints, being honest in our dealings with our fellow man is considered a fundamental standard of behavior necessary to attend the temple and be a member in good standing. According to the late Bruce R. McConkie, the most renowned and highly respected Mormon theologian of the 20th century, “honesty is one of the characteristics exhibited by all who are worthy to be numbered with the saints of God. Honest persons are fair and truthful in their speech, straightforward in their dealings, free from deceit, and above misrepresentation or any other fraudulent action.” I have been utterly shocked and dismayed as I have witnessed Mitt Romney – arguably the most well-known Latter-day Saint in the United States – mock and disregard some of the most sacred and fundamental principles of his own faith for worldly gain and glory. I implore all good Christian men and women to abstain from voting for Mitt Romney. Those who do vote for Romney will share the responsibility for promoting a corrupt and dishonest man to the highest office in our land.

http://republicansagainstromney.blogspot.com/


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