by Mark Silva, and updated
Video by Sabrina Fang
The Bush administration today is downplaying any imminent threat of nuclear weapons in the hands of Iran -- which appears to have suspended its development of a weapons program since the fall of 2003 and has no clear aim of resuming it, according to a new intelligence report. Yet the White House insists that Iran still must be pressed to suspend nuclear enrichment.
The report, contained in select elements of a National Intelligence Estimate that were released today by the director of national intelligence's office, concludes "with high confidence that Iran will not be technically capable of producing and reprocessing enough plutonium for a weapon before about 2015,''' but also that "Iran has the scientific, technical and industrial capacity eventually to produce nuclear weapons if it decides to do so.''
The select portions of the NIE released today follows a series of such releases by the Bush administration, which often has made public edited elements of the top-secret consensus of the nation's intelligence-gathering agencies to support its case -- a case, for instance, that al Qaeda continues to pose a threat to the national security of the United States.
But in this case, it would appear to be a matter of tamping down the political fires surrounding the debate over Iran and whatever intentions the United States might have about preventing Tehran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. "With high confidence,'' the NIE reports that Tehran "halted its nuclear weapons program'' in the fall of 2003. .
Until then, the report concludes, Iranian military entities "were working under government direction to develop nuclear weapons.'' But, with "high confidence,'' the report finds that Tehran had not restarted that program as of the mid-point of this year.
"We do not know whether it currently intends to develop nuclear weapons,'' the NIE concludes. But "Tehran's decision to halt its nuclear weapons program suggests it is less determined to develop nuclear weapons than we have been judging since 2005.''
This public concession -- Iran has maintained that it is not building a bomb, but rather developing civilian nuclear power with its nuclear enrichment program -- could signal a softening of the hardline approach that the Bush administration has taken to Tehran at a time when both the future of Iraq and a potential for peace in the Middle East are being discussed in the region.
Yet the White House insists that the new assessment makes it no less urgent that the U.S. and international allies urge Tehran to suspend its enrichment of nuclear fuels.
"I think there is going to be a tendency of a lot of people to say -- 'Uhp, the problem is less bad than we thought'... That would be a mistake,'' said Stephen Hadley, the president's national security adviser, in a briefing today. "Having mastered that ability to enrich uranium, they will have the capacity to make weapons-grade uranium. That is the long pole in the tent.''
The full report can be read at the DNI Web-site
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid today said that he had requested this assessment "early last year so that the administration could not rush this Congress and the country to another war based on flawed intelligence. I am very glad that the administration has finally provided the NIE and I will examine carefully the full classified version in coming days.
"I hope this administration reads this report carefully and appropriately adjusts its rhetoric and policy vis-à-vis Iran,'' said Reid (R-Nev.) " The administration should begin this process by finally undertaking a diplomatic surge necessary to effectively address the challenges posed by Iran. President Reagan had the wisdom to conduct diplomacy with America’s adversaries in order to advance U.S. interests. President Bush should follow Reagan’s example.”
This new report follows some of President Bush's toughest rhetoric on Iran -- stating recently that anyone who wants to avert a World War III wants to avert nuclear weapons in Iran.
"We got a leader in Iran who has announced that he wants to destroy Israel,'' Bush said at a White House press conference in October. " So I've told people that if you're interested in avoiding World War III, it seems like you ought to be interested in preventing them from have the knowledge necessary to make a nuclear weapon. I take the threat of Iran with a nuclear weapon very seriously.''
The intelligence community was working on its Iran report before Bush's remarks at that Oct. 17 press conference and delivered the results to the president just last week, according to Hadley -- "He would have made that comment before the intellligence community got this information, he would have made it after,'' Hadley said.
"The president was told that we have some new information -- give us some time to analyze it, and we will come to you and tell you what it means,'' Hadley said. "They came to their judgment on Tuesday of last week and they told the president on Wednesday.''
In some respects, Hadley said, the report confirms what was previously believed -- that Iran had indeed started down a path of developing nuclear weaponry.
"What we can say now is, they actually had -- which we did not know at the time in 2005 -- they actually had a covert weapons program; We were right to be concerned,'' Hadley said. ". But that program, that covert nuclear weapons program, has been suspended. Therefore it is important... to continue to put diplomatic pressure on Iran... so that the halting of their nuclear (weapons) program continues and that they suspend the uranium enrichment program.''
"That is the long pole for a country like Iran toward the path of having a nuclear weapon,'' Hadley said. "As the president says many times, we are asking people to do hard things. We are asking people to put pressure on Iran... I'm sure some people will try to use this as an excuse or pretext for flagging on the (issue).. Our argument is it should be exactly the reverse.''
Asked about how this report affects the credibility of the administration's previous statements about the threat that Iran poses, Hadley said: "All the intelligence community can do is try to get the best information they can... (and) be straight with that information...
"These are not puzzles that, once you solve them, you solve them for all time,'' he said. "These are challenges. ... Welcome to the real world. ''
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Comments
Huh Oh! This will be contested to the end. This would take a lot of the fear factor away from the republicans. If they don't have fear...what else do they have?
Posted by: bill r. | December 3, 2007 2:21 PM
Iran has shelved nuclear bomb program, intel finds.
Don't worry little Wingnuts, I'm sure Uncle Buckshot Dick will find another reason for you to invade Iran.....doesn't Iran have any other kinds of WMD's that the Wingnuts can use as an excuse for another pre-emptive invasion?
The Notorious Veep:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/63054028@N00/131229717/
Posted by: John E | December 3, 2007 2:22 PM
First of all, this is the lead item on most outlets. Second of all, saying that this NIE represents the admin line is sorta strange. It represents the assessment of the intelligence community. Perhaps the fact that the admin is releasing the contents says something, something like it would be politically devastating down the line to attempt to suppress this info. At any rate, it casts certain members of this admin in a sorry light.
Posted by: Joe | December 3, 2007 2:25 PM
Don't worry the neo nut cases still have uranium enrichment. Let us see them play that up. You know the go to issue we used in Iraq even after the French squashed the link to Africa. Uranium enrichment, terrorists, rouge regime practices. This is what we go to for war for these days.
Posted by: klan | December 3, 2007 2:38 PM
I'm shocked to hear our government has been lying to us about weapons development in an OPEC nation.
Posted by: Cheryl | December 3, 2007 2:43 PM
All the more reason to bomb them now!
How dare they deviate from the Script! It's a rogue nation! It's dangerous I say! Daaaaangerous!
Posted by: crafty b | December 3, 2007 3:01 PM
These intelligence agencies are "just guessing".
Posted by: GWBush | December 3, 2007 3:16 PM
The Prophecy says we must war with Iran! Christian soldiers take up your arms and you will be saved!!
Posted by: Malachi Branson | December 3, 2007 3:32 PM
Guess the intel didn't go through the VPs office for "massaging."
Posted by: Kenny Bunkport | December 3, 2007 3:41 PM
Another Big Lie from the wing nuts.If just a few more voters in Ohio had any brains,we could have avoided the last fours years of this disaster.
Posted by: Raving Loon | December 3, 2007 4:00 PM
Hey, Where are John D, Paulo and Bruce? They usually love to discuss Iran and nukes. I wonder why they are sitting this one out?
Posted by: AJF | December 3, 2007 4:30 PM
Why are we building that missile shield in Eastern Europe again?
Posted by: Nick | December 3, 2007 4:32 PM
From IranAffairs.com:
Posted by: hass | December 3, 2007 4:55 PM
"That is the long pole for a country like Iran toward the path of having a nuclear weapon,'' Hadley said.
Okay...is he getting these lines from Ashcroft or Rumsfeld? They are the only two I can think of right now that would utter lines like this.
Posted by: Anonymous | December 3, 2007 4:56 PM
And now the spin doctors will come out of the walls to defend this administration yet again. I like the line "what we can say now, is that they had, but we didn't know in 2005, that they had ceased in 2003". Geezzzz
Posted by: Tex | December 3, 2007 5:13 PM
Did you twist yourself into a pretzel writing that lead, Silva? Anything would be better than telling the truth: The Bush administration knew what what is that report for quite awhile, kept it from us, and continued to use Iran's nuclear program as a pretext for its war mongering. I hope you can untwist yourself in time to drive home.
Posted by: J.E. | December 3, 2007 5:27 PM
Laughing my butt off at you liberals. Did you read the entire article? Or do you just read the headlines and then formulate your opinion? My guess is that you just read the headlines. The article states that Bush's pressure on Iran has been successful and recommends that we continue to apply this pressure. You cannot cherry pick which parts of a story you wish to believe
Posted by: Stewart | December 3, 2007 6:00 PM
So essentially, since 2003, GW and Gang, have pushed the Iran nuclear crisis to increase the price of oil, creating instability in the market for financial gain. Afterall, it is the American intelligence network that is saying this, and I think GW somehow gets their reports.
Posted by: True American | December 3, 2007 6:05 PM
"The article states that Bush's pressure on Iran has been successful and recommends that we continue to apply this pressure."
Stew-
Incorrect. The "article" does not state that. The article quotes Stephan Hadley, the President's National Security Advisor as saying that. It is his opinion, and should be taken into account, but it is a matter of opinion not fact.
Posted by: Nick | December 3, 2007 6:12 PM
So I guess we don't get an encore of Bomb Iran by John McCain??? Dick Cheney must be mad as hell. I'm sure the thought of SHOCK & AWE redux was a big turn on for Dick!!!
Posted by: Logic Prisoner | December 3, 2007 6:32 PM
What a terrible day for the Republican war machine.
Iran isn't working on the bomb and Chavez didn't become dictator. Two countries that the Republican justification for war against disappeared in one day. They must be very depressed. Now they're going to have to work reasons to attack some other country to satisfy their bloodlust and craving for destruction.
Posted by: Luke | December 3, 2007 7:46 PM
Looks like President Bush's strategy has worked again. Carrot and stick diplomacy. Just like North Korea. He'll get no credit from the Leftist media, but the proof is in the advances through the Israeli-Palestinians peace initiatives, the involvement of Arab nations, the renewed relationships with Germany, France, Britain and Canada, the decried but successful multi-nation approach to the Korean peninsula, the new alliances with Poland, Czech Republic etc. Good things are happening. You just won't read about them or hear them acknowledged by a Democrat party invested in defeat for America.
Posted by: Addison | December 3, 2007 7:47 PM
'Shelved' is the key word. Beyond that, our military can't win in Iran. We could bomb the place back to the stone age, yet resistance would persist. This is a classic case for diplomacy.
Not to GWB and any subsequent Demo Prez;
Please don't kill more American kids by attacking Iran...
Posted by: C.Morris | December 3, 2007 8:06 PM
A bunch of posts from Iran's best friends: the loony left. Well, the U.S. media likes Iran too.
I mean, apparently Mark Silva is all for Iran having nuclear capabilities: "Yet the White House insists that Iran still must be pressed to suspend nuclear enrichment."
Posted by: John D | December 3, 2007 8:30 PM
A bunch of posts from Iran's best friends: the loony left. Well, the U.S. media likes Iran too.
I mean, apparently Mark Silva is all for Iran having nuclear capabilities: "Yet the White House insists that Iran still must be pressed to suspend nuclear enrichment."
Posted by: John D | December 3, 2007 8:30 PM
Congratulations John D, you have just said.....NOTHING. Did you even read the article? Are you so war hungry that you must stick your fingers in your ears, close your eyes and babble? Good grief, buy yourself a plane ticket and go war with Iran.
So, to illustrate your 'logic', Iran doesn't have the machine to make cotton candy and has decided not to make it, but we better bomb the heck out of them because they might want to make cotton candy in the future and Mark Silva wants them to have it.
Posted by: DD | December 3, 2007 11:23 PM
The Prophecy says we must war with Iran! Christian soldiers take up your arms and you will be saved!!
Posted by: Malachi Branson | December 3, 2007 3:32 PM
Reaction:
Which "profecy" are you babbling about Malachi(Cohen?)Branson? Its about time you used your own cannon fodder and money to do the dirty work for you. Please leave the Christian soldiers out of it! 2,500 years ago (your?) Queen Esther already had 100,000 innocent Persians slaughtered ,still heartily celebrated as "yom kippur" by the elected.....I think you should read a bit more in the New Testament if you like to refer to the bible at all!
Pastor Robin
Posted by: Anonymous | December 4, 2007 1:34 AM
The Prophecy says we must war with Iran! Christian soldiers take up your arms and you will be saved!!
Posted by: Malachi Branson | December 3, 2007 3:32 PM
Reaction:
Which "profecy" are you babbling about Malachi(Cohen?)Branson? Its about time you used your own cannon fodder and money to do the dirty work for you. Please leave the Christian soldiers out of it! 2,500 years ago (your?) Queen Esther already had 100,000 innocent Persians slaughtered ,still heartily celebrated as "yom kippur" by the elected.....I think you should read a bit more in the New Testament if you like to refer to the bible at all!
Pastor Robin
Posted by: R.Zijp | December 4, 2007 3:25 AM
It looks as if Israel has been prempted from pushing us to bomb Iran as their price for 'painful concessions' in the peace talks .
I wonder why the President kept talking as if he didn't know (he knew in August) this news was not going to come .
Posted by: cjjoy | December 4, 2007 7:42 AM
What we have here is just another horrible example of Bush's dishonesty.
He started a terrible war before, knowing full well the facts of Iraq's weapons status.
He has been lying through his teeth about Iran.
If anybody believes the cover story that this estimate is brand new, he or she should contact me about a bridge I want to sell.
The President is given weekly intelligence estimates, along with periodic priority updates as required. Would Americans want it to be any other way?
I think what we have here is the intelligence community trying to prevent another disaster. Many in the military and intelligence community understand the truth about Bush.
There are stories that a number of senior military officers are prepared to tender their resignations should Bush attack Iran.
This man is a narcissistic liar, one of the key requirements for a psychopath, who believes only his inner voice, regarding the thoughts of others as meaningless.
Posted by: John Chuckman, Toronto, Canada | December 4, 2007 8:34 AM
"A bunch of posts from Iran's best friends: the loony left. Well, the U.S. media likes Iran too."
Oh, John D, the left has a long way to go to match the Republicans as Iran's friends.
Starting with Republican Hero Ronald Reagan who illegally sold them arms as a result of terrorism they supported.
Now, George W. Bush has made them the stringest power in the region by completely destroying their counterweight in Iraq as a military power.
George W. Bush has also increased Iran's prestige internationally showing that Iran has been being honest when saying that don't have a nuclear weapons program, when the US has been saying the opposite.
Republicans can always be counted on to act to in the Iranians best interest.
Posted by: AJF | December 4, 2007 9:47 AM
The leftnuts have finally found an intelligence estimate they agree with....
But an obvious question remains, regarding the article's statement that: "Iran ... appears to have suspended its development of a weapons program since the fall of 2003..."
To you Sherlock's out there: what happened in 2003 in the Middle East that might have changed Iran's mind? Anything come to mind? Say, for example, a big event that happened in next door Iraq?
Hint: The event was in all the newspapers. And even the Tribune.
Posted by: Bruce | December 4, 2007 10:06 AM
Bruce-
So now we invaded Iraq to get rid of WMD's in Iran?
Posted by: AJF | December 4, 2007 10:44 AM
What a terrible day for the Republican war machine.
Iran isn't working on the bomb and Chavez didn't become dictator. Two countries that the Republican justification for war against disappeared in one day. They must be very depressed. Now they're going to have to work reasons to attack some other country to satisfy their bloodlust and craving for destruction.
Posted by: Luke | December 3, 2007 7:46 PM
Funny! Yet because they most likely will find someone to bomb not so funny...LUKE I AM YOUR FATHER!
Posted by: Beavis | December 5, 2007 5:07 AM