by Paul West

This is John McCain’s moment. Suddenly, to the surprise of many, he’s very much alive in the Republican presidential contest. It’s even possible to see him as the sole survivor when the demolition derby finally ends.

At the same time, he could easily be out of the running in less than three weeks, which says as much about the wild ride the candidates are embarking on as it does about his campaign.

His prospects have clearly brightened—thanks, in no small part, to Rudy Giuliani’s slide in New Hampshire, where McCain has climbed into second place. With the primary less than three weeks away, he’s gotten lots of positive buzz and a fistful of new endorsements. For the first time in a long time, rivals are looking over their shoulder at the 71-year-old senator.

That’s a big change from last spring and summer, when his campaign was effectively broke and far down in the polls. His support for a comprehensive immigration overhaul, which Republican voters strongly oppose, was only one of his problems (and one he’s been unable to fix).

Drawing the wrong lesson from his loss to George W. Bush in the 2000 campaign, he had made the mistake of running an establishment campaign, as Bush did in 2000. McCain led the charge for Bush’s re-election, changed his position on some issues, such as cutting taxes, and was the most vocal proponent of the war in Iraq. In the process, he undermined his most precious asset—a reputation for independence that goes to the heart of his appeal. When he blew through $25 million in campaign money, with little to show for it, the vultures started circling.

But even at his lowest point, McCain figured to bounce back. Like John Edwards, who nearly won Iowa’s caucus four years ago and needs a victory in that state to remain viable, McCain retained a core of supporters in New Hampshire, where he defeated Bush in the 2000 primary. Out of money and options last summer, he adopted a one-state strategy and went back to the straight-talking, town-hall campaign style that worked for him before.

"Maybe it is wishful thinking," McCain was quoted as saying the other day, "but I think we are starting to see some of the same thing we saw in 2000."

The question is whether he’ll see enough of it. A McCain comeback, all the way to the nomination, wouldn’t be unprecedented. At this point four years ago, John Kerry was in the process of lifting his cash-short candidacy from the edge of disaster all the way to the nomination.

The ‘08 campaign is even more wide open than the last one, and the Republican race looks particularly volatile. Like Kerry, McCain hopes to benefit from party infighting, and that seems to be happening. In New Hampshire, support has ebbed for Giuliani who, after investing $2 million on TV ads and considerable time in the state, appears to be going nowhere.

The latest McCain scenario is laid out by his campaign manager, Rick Davis, on the campaign’s website (see "Path to Victory" at http://www.johnmccain.com/Informing/Multimedia/). It relies heavily on momentum from winning New Hampshire, which Davis describes as McCain’s "home state." Davis also argues that McCain is the most electable Republican and that the campaign’s chronic cash shortage would be solved by a New Hampshire victory.

He also makes the point, indirectly, that McCain’s fate is effectively in the hands of others, starting with Mike Huckabee. Fortunately for McCain, the former Arkansas governor has nothing but good things to say about him. "I think he's one of the most honorable individuals in this nation. I personally like him. I also professionally respect him. You won't ever hear me saying something unkind or untoward toward this person who I believe to be a great American hero," Huckabee said on CNN the other day.

But it’s Huckabee’s performance in Iowa, not kind words, that would make the difference for both men, who could, conceivably, wind up as the Republican finalists and—don’t be shocked—on the same ticket in November, depending on how the campaign goes.

A Huckabee victory in Iowa, five days before New Hampshire, may be the only thing that can stop Mitt Romney from winning the New Hampshire primary. Romney, the former governor of next-door Massachusetts, currently leads McCain by about 10 points in the latest New Hampshire polling.

Because religious conservatives are less of a force in New Hampshire than Iowa, Huckabee hasn’t got much of a shot at winning the primary. But if he beats Romney in Iowa—a distinct possibility—he would likely draw some conservative votes from Romney in New Hampshire and help put the Granite State very much in play.

Fred Thompson has little support in New Hampshire, according to the polls, but he’s making a late Iowa push (as is McCain) and has a chance to finish third on caucus night, Jan. 3. Most of the votes that Thompson gets in New Hampshire would likely come at McCain’s expense, since Thompson was a strong McCain supporter in 2000 and has a similar image and ideological profile.

Another wild card: Ron Paul, now rolling in money and growing support in New Hampshire. He could top out above 10 percent on primary day, according to New Hampshire Republicans. The question, as one of them put it, is to what extent Ron Paul, the lone antiwar Republican, is a "but-for" candidate ("but for" Paul, these voters would not turn out at all). Still, he seems likely to siphon away some independent-minded votes that might otherwise have gone to McCain.

McCain is trying to win back more of the moderate independents who voted for him in 2000, and who may now be more interested backing a fresher face, like Barack Obama (in New Hampshire, voters are free to choose either a Republican or Democratic ballot on primary day, Jan. 8). That won’t be easy, since most of the independents supporting Obama reject McCain’s support for the Iraq war.

Polls suggest that at least two in five primary voters could change their minds between now and the election. McCain’s national campaign manager acknowledges that New Hampshire is must-win for him. And if this all sounds complicated, it is.

What it means is that, for two more weeks, McCain is on the bubble. To win New Hampshire, some bad things have to happen to other candidates and even more good things have to happen for him. His path to the nomination is anything but straight and clear, but at least he’s got one.

Paul West is the Baltimore Sun's bureau chief in Washington. He joined the paper as national political correspondent and has covered every presidential campaign since the 1980s. Before coming to Washington, he was a reporter in Texas and Georgia, where he covered education, the federal courts and local and state government and politics.