Tsongas wins in Bay State, sign of times in '08?

by Jill Zuckman

Political parties often look to special elections as a harbinger of things to come.

Tuesday night, Democrat Niki Tsongas beat Republican Jim Ogonowski to represent the 5th Congressional district of Massachusetts. Tsongas, the widow of 1992 presidential candidate Paul Tsongas, succeeds Democrat Marty Meehan, who resigned to become chancellor of the University of Massachusetts at Lowell.

Less clear is what the election results mean for congressional races in 2008, if they mean anything at all. Democrats, not surprisingly, are hoping to increase the size of their majority, while Republicans, plagued by retirements of senior lawmakers, would like to take back control of the House.

The National Republican Congressional Committee was quick to point out that no Republican candidate for the U.S. House in Massachusetts has won more than 43 percent of the vote since 1996. Ogonowski, the brother of an American Airlines pilot killed in the Sept. 11 attacks, was expected to finish with 46 percent.

But by night's end, the final tally was 51-45 in Tsongas's favor.

"Jim's hard-fought, grassroots campaign, exposed a shift in the political tide, and most impressively, he did it in the bluest of blue states,'' said NRCC Chairman Tom Cole (R-Okla.). "He proved that a Republican challenger, who centers their campaign on the core issues of lower taxes, less government spending, respect for the rule of law and most importantly, the issue of bringing change to Washington, can effectively garner votes from independents and swing voters.''

An NRCC memo described the race as a "severely under-performing single-digit victory," portending the end of the Democratic wave that swept Republicans out of Congress in 2006.

"In what is clearly shaping up to be a change election, Democrats have reason to worry as they are no longer seen as the solution to the problem in Washington," the memo said, citing "rock bottom" approval ratings for Congress.

Not surprisingly, Democrats interpreted the results as more evidence that voters oppose the war in Iraq, just as they do. And in a week when Democrats are trying to override President Bush's veto of legislation to provide health care coverage to low-income children, they saw it as proof that voters want representatives who share their goals.

"She is a lifelong advocate for children and working families in Massachusetts. Niki will be a tremendous asset to the Democratic Caucus,” said Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “Massachusetts voters sent a clear message, they support candidates who fight for their values to provide children’s health care and work to end the war in Iraq.”

DCCC officials pointed out that the district, which includes the old textile town of Lowell, is the most conservative in the state, routinely voting for Republicans in statewide races. Even Deval Patrick, the Democratic governor, barely eked out 50.5 percent here during his overwhelming romp to victory last year.

"The reality is that MA-05 has a long history of electing Republicans. Tonight, voters chose someone to stand up to President Bush in support of children's health care and ending the war in Iraq," said Jennifer Crider, the DCCC communications director.

"The former NRCC chair said it best last year," she said, referring to Rep. Tom Reynolds (R-N.Y.). " 'There aren't any moral victories. You either win or you don't in this business.' "