by Frank James
The Washington Post on Monday carried a front-page story about congressional supporters of the immigration agreement being more optimistic about the bill's prospects, based on the slow-down in calls and e-mails to their offices. They took that as an indication that opposition was slackening.
"You just have to recognize you will get 300 calls, you'll get conflicts at town hall meetings -- all of them negative," said Rep. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.), who consulted with (fellow Arizonan Sen. Jon,) Kyl and hopes to carry a similar deal through the House in July. "The last few days have really turned things around."
Public opinion polls seem to support Kyl's contention that Americans are far more open to the deal than the voices of opposition would indicate. In a Washington Post-ABC News poll released today, 52 percent of Americans said they would support a program giving illegal immigrants the right to stay and work in the United States if they pay a fine and meet other requirements. Opposition to that proposal was 44 percent.
That seemed like a misreading of the public mood. What would have turned things around so quickly? was an obvious question.
Yes, President Bush had gone to some lengths to market the compromise to the public. But could he have turned things around so dramatically? Doubtful.
But Flake, a well-respected lawmaker from a state that borders Mexico, is on the front lines of the problem so his opinion is certainly as valid as anyone else's, perhaps moreso.
A new Gallup Poll suggests, however, that the opposition to the compromise bill in the Senate is anything but diminishing.
PRINCETON, NJ -- Although the majority of Americans claim that they don't know enough about the controversial immigration bill now being debated in Congress to have an opinion about it, opposition outweighs support by a three to one margin among those who do have an opinion. Among those who say they are following news of the immigration bill most closely, opposition is at the 60% level. There are only minor differences between Democrats and Republicans in terms of views of the bill. Independents are most likely to be opposed. Those who are opposed to the bill are most likely to cite that it provides "amnesty" to illegal immigrants in this country as the reason for their opposition.
So among those most familiar with the bill, six of 10 of them are solidly opposed to the bill.
And one possible reading of the poll seems to be that when it comes to the immigration bill familiarity breeds contempt, at least on the public's part. The more people learn know about it, the greater their opposition.
The poll does say that most Americans don't have an opinion on the bill, 58 pecent to be precise.
One of the important findings here is that a majority of Americans simply don't have an opinion on the immigration bill -- despite its prominence in news coverage and talk show discussions in recent weeks. This is consistent with the data showing that only 18% of Americans say they are following news about the bill very closely.
So it appears the best case for the bill's supporters would be to hope most Americans continue to ignore the debate.
But Senate and other opponents of the legislation will likely make as much of a stink about the bill as they can, guided by polls like this one.
Here's a very important paragraph from Gallup's report.
The second important finding is that among those do know enough about the bill to have an opinion, there is roughly a three to one level of opposition over support. Additionally, a majority of opponents to the bill feel strongly about their views, while a majority of those who favor the bill say they don't feel strongly about their opinion.
Political debates are generally won by the side with the strongest passion, those who support their positions most vocally who can credibly raise the specter of a voter rebellion. In this case that would obviously be the opponents of the immigration compromise.
Here's Gallup's bottom-line.
In short, there is a core group of about one-third of Americans who are opposed to the bill, counterbalanced by only about one-tenth who support it. This is in the context of the largest group of Americans -- a clear majority -- that says they don't know enough about the bill to have an opinion about it.
If you're a lawmaker you ask yourself which group is more likely to punish you at the polls? The answer is obvious., which is one reason why the legislation continues to be in so much trouble in the Senate right now.
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Comments
People need to really read the bill - they will then understand that the purported "triggers" happen immediately (at the will of the government). The bill is amnesty - pure and simple. What astounds me is that people are demonstrating against the bill and the politicians aren't hearing it - they're too busy pandering to the illegals and big business.
Posted by: Linda | June 6, 2007 2:58 PM
As I talk with my Democrat, Republican, and Independent friends, the one overwhelming response from them is that "We are a nation of laws. Don't are elected officials get it?" The politicians that support this bill do so to pander for the Hispanic vote."
Posted by: Rich | June 6, 2007 3:30 PM
It doesn't install confidence in the Senate's ability to write a law meeting our needs when one of the main supporters of the bill - Senator Reid calls illegal aliens "undocumented Americans" on the Senate Floor.
Just what does this man have going on in his head and head and his heart?
Posted by: Win brown | June 6, 2007 3:51 PM
Anyone think if they had a year of "Secret Negotiations" with a dozen members from the Swamp we could come out with a bill that wouldn't give away the Country.
These Senators know the public is against them but they continue to reject amendments that WOULD NOT allow felons a path to citizenship.
And remember, Z visa's, you automatically become legal and NEVER have to bother with Green-cards, Permanent Residency, Citizenship.
http://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/vote_menu_110_1.htm
This bill has crossed Party lines, Contact your Washington Politician.
Posted by: Anonymous | June 6, 2007 3:55 PM
Do you really wonder that Washington politicians don't listen when America speaks? You shouldn't.
Remember the impeachment proceedings against Bill Clinton? Regardless of whether you think they were a good idea or not, the opinion polls all showed the American public was largely against them, as well as against the overplayed media coverage of the event. Yet, neither the politicians nor the media relented.
Why? Because politicians and news media types view themselves as the elite - the aristocracy of our country, as it were. They care less about public opinion than they do about following their own ideology. After all, what do ordinary people know about politics?
This business about the immigration bill is further evidence that we need better, popular control over politicians who get "too good" to listen to their own voters. Term limits, shorter terms and recall procedures are all beginning to sound more and more attractive every day.
Posted by: John W. | June 6, 2007 4:41 PM
in Spanish: no recompensarlos, deport ellos!
in English: don't reward them, deport them!
NUFF SAID!!!
Posted by: andy filkins | June 6, 2007 5:44 PM
This immigration bill gives business a huge pool of cheap labor and it gives the Democrats a huge group of angry, alienated America-haters who will be demanding free health care, in other words, a reliable Democratic voting bloc.
What do the American people get out of this? The finger.
Posted by: S. Sherman | June 6, 2007 8:14 PM
I will vote against anyone who favors this bill..enforce the work place and border, the mexican consulate in LA is telling illegals how to get free health care and how to avoid deportation...I can name three restaurants in Dupage that only hire illegals because they can pay them cash, Sat nights we all have to tip out so the owners can pay them..why are ESL programs free to illegals at COD? I am angry..more people were killed in the US by illegals in the past three years than in IRAQ....also you don't have to be legals to get health or drivers insurance..
Posted by: karin | June 6, 2007 8:22 PM
the bill is downright stupidity at its greatest.
Posted by: Dante calfetnastine | June 6, 2007 10:33 PM
why aren't the laws that we have enforced, people need to start reporting those in violation of the law..report the companies that hire illegals, demand that the anchor baby law is dropped, ask why with this bill illegals get 4 years to get basic ENGLISH skills and 8 years to be fluent..(the ESL programs will be paid for by the taxpayer), why the illegals get 5+ years to pay the fines and penalities (that should be paid upfront) this is a joke..also their is no cap on how many farm workers could work here legally..the farmers like hiring illegals because under the program they have to provide health care, housing and a decent wage..I am watching who is in favor of this and will vote 3rd party the future..did anyone ask kennedy why he screwed up so badly with the last amnesty and where is that fence?
Posted by: tony | June 6, 2007 11:40 PM
What do you propose instead? Status Quo?
Posted by: Alex | June 7, 2007 12:36 AM
THE NEW SCAPEGOATS ???
I am Mexican.
Part of my family lives in USA, part of my family is in Mexico. Some of my uncles fought in the Second World War. A cousin of mine went to VietNam. One of my nephews has been to Irak (twice). Other nephew is presently in Afghanistan. Both of my nephews belong to the Marine Corps.
Did you know that President carter gave pardon for those that did not join the war in Vietnam? Many went to Canada, and others flew to Mexico.
You sure know that President Ford Gave full pardon to Nixon because of the Watergate scandal.
And according to what it is known, Nixon violated blatantly the law in many issues and in a great scale. This does not mean that therefore, others must violate the law. But what I am saying is that in your own history there are some examples of amnesty or whatever you want to call it.
The Rule of law during liquor prohibition was zero alcohol and looked what happened. The black market prevailed and Mafia’s rings sprout all over the country.
“Rule of law” means enforcing laws that are capable of enforcement, otherwise people merely learn disrespect for the law. Obviously, immigration laws that refuse to recognize the inevitable attraction of a lack of unskilled labor on one side of the border and a lack of employment for unskilled labor on the other is not workable no matter how much of the taxpayers' billions get poured down a rathole of “enhanced enforcement
Why are you claiming the rule of law against people that came here to work? Work that many of you don’t want to perform.
Why do you hate us so much, why do you want to harm us? We are not terrorists.? Do you believe in God? Do you have a religion?
What does it prove to the valuable and strained military resources to round up all the indocumentados if radical Muslims manage to pull off another 9-11 or worse?. Let me remind you that some of the terrorists and all failed attempts came through Canada not through Mexico. Let’s concentrate in chasing our real enemies. Not us.
Canada is changing and becoming more accepting and tolerant of the Islamic culture, which not always but sometimes does include violent extremes which we have seen far too often. In Canada there are greater concentration of Islam followers than in all the countries together south of the border.
Let me point out that our countries in north and South America belong to the only continent in the world, besides Europe, with common origins in religion and cultural heritage. No other continent in the world has such homogeneity. Our countries are not in war against neighboring countries. There are no conflicts because of religious differences. But, one thing is sure, we are not your enemies, we are not terrorists. As a matter of fact, down the road, we are your only potential allies against international terrorism.
I do not understand why you cannot see who our common enemy is, nor why you would have us waste time and effort chasing down immigrant workers, instead of chasing terrorists, such as the Fundamental/ radical Islam followers that hate the West, us included.
Please do not forget what happened with Hitler and Jews in Europe.
Your arguments sound familiar. Similar to the attacks made to Jews that escalated until deport them to concentration camps and exterminate a great deal of innocent people. All based in hate. Hate against other race. Hate against other people.
Not so long ago, the biggest dictator on earth came to power driven by anger and hate.
Everything started little by little in Germany. Jews started to be blamed for everything. Just take a look to some of the movies made by Hitler about Jews. In these films, they are depicted as criminals, thieves, a disgrace to Germany, they are filthy, they bring diseases, they are greedy, they should be removed, they should be deported, etc.
America had to go and rescue Europe from Hitler and his fanatics. Maybe some of your relatives fought abroad. Maybe some or many died in this fight against hate.
The hate against Jews made Hitler to climb to his actual position. As a result of his ascent and silence and approval of the German population, the killings and destruction were countless. This is also what the Ku Klux Klan tried to do against African Americans in USA, luckily without success. The white supremacists, Nazis, and the KKK are closely related.
Perhaps unknowingly or unwittingly you are helping them.
Don't make the mistake that Germans made with Hitler.
"We lead the world because, unique among nations, we draw our people -- our strength -- from every country and every corner of the world... Thanks to each wave of new arrivals to this land of opportunity, we're a nation forever young, forever bursting with energy and new ideas, and always on the cutting edge, always leading the world to the next frontier."
- Ronald Reagan
God bless America as a country and as a continent!!!
Posted by: Memo | June 7, 2007 1:00 AM
I cant wait until the movie comes out... "The Amnestybill Horror".
Posted by: fritobandito | June 7, 2007 1:15 AM
In relevant part Memo wrote (above):
"'Rule of law' means enforcing laws that are capable of enforcement, otherwise people merely learn disrespect for the law."
Dear Memo,
You are flat wrong. The "Rule of Law" means that laws, and not individual opinions, determine the rules of human conduct in a given society. It is never a question of enforcing only those laws that are capable of enforcement. All laws are passed with the understanding they can and will be enforced. Until a law is repealed, everyone in the jurisdiction must obey it. Moreover, everyone whose job it is to enforce a law has a good faith duty to see that those laws are carried out. Difficulty in enforcement is never an excuse to avoid trying to enforce a law.
If we did not enforce our laws - as is true of our immigration laws for the past two decades - then our government has lost its very reason to exist. In any given situation, government consists of only two things: 1) a law, and 2) the force to make people comply with the law. If either is taken away there is no law and no government. Therefore, we have only two choices. The first choice is to insist that our laws be enforced. The second choice is to cease to exist as a society and a nation as we know it. It’s that simple.
For example, let’s just say your neighborhood has been overrun by burglars and pickpockets, and a friend of yours was the victim of a burglary. Let’s also say that you and your friend went to the police to complain about the burglars. How would you or your friend feel if the police told you, “I’m sorry, we don’t enforce the laws against burglary or theft in your neighborhood. Besides, those guys are harmless, and some of them are good for the economy – because they keep the glass company in business. Oh, and don’t get any ideas about defending your homes or taking the law into your own hands. We’re the police, and not you.” Your natural reaction would be one of anger because your government cared so little. If you have a head on your shoulders, you would immediately know that its time for a new city hall, a new police force, or both. You would also know that you could no longer live in peace in that town as long as the laws were disregarded.
And these are precisely the feelings of many Americans with regard to the question of illegal immigration and the lack of enforcement. It is not impossible to enforce the immigration laws. We can do it just like we enforce every other law: one case at a time.
You soft sell of open immigration was very touching, but unconvincing nevertheless. We have already made the mistake would repeat with the new immigration law. In 1986, we had another amnesty bill that promised a path to citizenship. A lot of people signed up for it; some didn’t. But the enforcement provisions of that law weren’t enforced. Employers of illegal workers were never caught or punished, and millions more people flowed across a porous border the government chose not to protect. As a result, we are now in a situation three (3) to five (5) times worse. Instead of four million illegal aliens like we had in 1986, we now have 12 to 20 million illegal aliens. Instead of setting the immigration situation straight, the 1986 law simply encouraged more illegal immigration, which is why we find ourselves in our current predicament. If we repeat the process, we will simply be inviting yet more illegal immigration.
Oh, and one more thing. Opposition to illegal immigration isn’t about hatred, racism or xenophobia. Many people who oppose amnesty and illegal immigration are children of immigrants – myself included. Immigration isn’t the problem; its the illegal part that gets us. If we don’t have laws that get enforced, then America is no better than the places in the world from which our parents fled. But anyone who gets here legally is always welcome.
Posted by: John W. | June 7, 2007 3:24 AM
Memo, no one hates Mexicans. As an American citizen and one living in a border state I have perspective and a vision of what will be if this bill passes. It will benefit large companies with a good supply of cheap labor. The 12-20 million number being bandied about is just the beginning. You and I both know that with families added in, that number will total well above 50 million. That is a huge pool of mostly uneducated, unskilled added to the population of this country. Schools, hospital/healthcaresystems, and welfare resources are already being severely tested. I see very little assilimation from those already here. In Houston, for example, I can take you to many parts of town where all signs are in Spanish and the Mexican flags outnumber the American flags 3 to 1. I see resistent to English emersion being taught in schools. The Asians and others from mideastern countries did not pander for these services. Why? Simply put, America, as we American citizens have know it will change forever if this bill is passed into law. And by the shear volume of illegals being legalized, the changes will not be good.
Govchance
Posted by: Art | June 7, 2007 8:25 AM
Memo,
I find it highly offensive that you compare those who want to enforce our borders to Nazis. Every nation enforces its borders. Mexico enforces its borders. Why is it somehow unacceptable for the United States to do it?
Posted by: S. Sherman | June 7, 2007 10:43 AM
Fuego los senadores, los congress, fuego los titulares.Es amnistia!
(Fire the senators, the congress, fire the incumbents. It's amnesty!)
Perhaps they understand that...it seems to be all they listen to. Can we have a do-over?
Posted by: Tar and Feathers | June 7, 2007 3:02 PM
I do agree with this new era in immigration at some point for it will serve as a security in the country. It can also be the solution to the problems of maintaining a lower supplies of backlogs. It is very important nowadays to get the key immigrants at their most in a short period of time.This is not yet approved right? but I'll support this newly introduced legislation.
_____________________________
LiLi
New York Immigration Lawyer Marina Shepelsky, located in Brooklyn, assists clients from the New York metro area and across the United States in all immigration and naturalization matters http://www.e-us-visa.com
Posted by: LiLi | May 6, 2008 11:36 PM