Posted by William Neikirk at 6:15 a.m. CST
It's getting closer.
Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois has narrowed Sen. Hillary Clinton's lead in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, according to a new telephone poll by Zogby International, a polling firm.
And former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani has increased his lead over Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) in the Republican race, the poll says.
The survey is the first since Clinton and Obama got into a public spat over comments made by an Obama supporter, Hollywood mogul David Geffen, who called Clinton polarizing and unelectable.
The Zogby poll (taken Feb. 22-24) showed Clinton had support from 33 percent of Democrats, up by 4 percent over the last survey six weeks ago. But the Zogby pollsters said Obama had made dramatic strides, and is now favored by 25 percent of Democrats, up from 14 percent over the last poll.
If the survey accurately reflects voter sentiment, it suggests that Obama has benefited from his entrance into the race and has been gaining ground. Some experts say that polls don't matter that much this early in the game, but they do mean something for candidates and their fund-raising activities.
Here are important breakdowns in the Zogby Poll (which as a margin of error of 3 percent):
Clinton has solid support among older voters, but Obama leads among younger voters. But a slight majority (54 percent) of Clinton's supporters said they are likely to change their minds before they actually cast a primary or caucus vote. By contrast, 48 percent of Obama voters said they were likely to change their minds.
Obama sounded confident during a trip to Ohio on Monday.
`I’m going to be spending a lot of time in Ohio so that people are familiar with me, so that by the time I’m the Democratic nominee, they don’t feel like I’m just parachuting in but that they’ve heard me and had a chance to kick the tires and lift the hood,’’ he said.
John Edwards had support from 12 percent of Democrats, followed by New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson with 5 percent, Sen. Joseph Biden (D-Del.) with 2 percent, and Gen. Wesley Clark with 1 percent. The remainder were uncertain.
On the GOP side, Giuliani was favored by 29 percent of Republicans and McCain 20 percent. In the earlier poll, Giuliani had 21 percent and McCain 17 percent.
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney was favored by 9 percent of Republican voters, Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice and former House Speaker New Gingrich each had 7 percent, and Sen. Sam Brownback (R-Kan.) had 4 percent. Reps. Tom Tancredo (R-Colo.) and Duncan Hunter (R-Calif.) each had 1 percent. The rest were uncertain.
Giuliani spoke at a conservative think tank's conference on Monday and said that he converted from Democrat to Republican because of taxes and the economy. "What we understand as Republicans is that, sure, the government is an important player in this, but we are essentially a private eocnomy," the former New York mayor said. "What Democrats really believe…is that it is essentially a government economy."
McCain received one boost on Monday as he was endorsed by a colleague, Sen. John Warner (R-Va.).
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Comments
Somethings' wrong here...John Edwards has only 12% of the democratic vote. I would of thought an ambulance chaser who sued doctors for $150 million would be most attractive to the average democratic voter. Go figure....
Posted by: Don B | February 27, 2007 8:09 AM
What is the Swamp gonna do: their SECOND favorite subject -- Connecticutt's Chris Dudd isn't even registering 1 percent!! Will we still get three, four items a week on Dudd?
Posted by: John D | February 27, 2007 8:25 AM
The 2 front runners are Giuliani and Clinton. So Bill Niekirk headlines his story with "he who walks on water", Barack "we're not allowed to say his middle name" Obama.
The Zogby poll is considered by those in the know to be unreliable. Other more trusted polls have "he who walks on water" much further behind.
Posted by: bruce | February 27, 2007 8:29 AM
In a country where electoral votes rules, Illinois will heavily be a blue state again in '08 regardless whether it is Obama & Clinton.
All the typical right wing-nut slams led to nothing in the last election except turn the gov't over to the Democrats and by a heavy margin. Your claims are baseless and produce nothing other than promoting the Democrats cause. Everytime I hear a Obama/Clinton bash - I revel in it cause it means you have not adjusted your tactics one bit just retreading the same old useless garbage.
Disagree? Give me one example where your lefty-loony bashing produces some results,,,,
Posted by: Gus | February 27, 2007 8:56 AM
Boy, Gus is sure looking for a fight. I've never seen someone so proud to be 1 for 4, either.
Giuliani is still polling way ahead of Clinton and McCain still leads her (by a slimmer margin) in most polls. With a much more civil primary season shaking up on the GOP side I like either McCain or Giuliani's chances a lot better than Clinton or Obama's. These two are well on the way to electorally cannibalizing each other.
Posted by: Jeff | February 27, 2007 9:41 AM
Jeff/Bill,
Ask President Howard Dean what it's like to be on top of the poll so early in the game.
Posted by: john | February 27, 2007 2:49 PM
Least asked question. Is America ready for it's first African American president? Is America ready for it's first woman president? Is America ready to elect the first Mormon to be president? Can an Hispanic American be elected president? Here comes the 64 million dollar question that has not been asked, and one wonders why - will Rudy G be the first Italian-American elected president? He's riding high in the polls right now, but wait until all the Anglo-Saxons get their wits sees that fact hanging out there. Watch his poll numbers plunge. Things just happen to be that way.
Posted by: GW | February 27, 2007 3:50 PM
Not only is O rapidly gaining in the polls, his congressional endorsements--15 to date--ties Hindenberg Hillary. The most recent list:
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0207/2916.html
Posted by: Rus Styles | February 27, 2007 4:42 PM
"Somethings' wrong here...John Edwards has only 12% of the democratic vote. I would of thought an ambulance chaser who sued doctors for $150 million would be most attractive to the average democratic voter. Go figure....
Posted by: Don B | Feb 27, 2007 8:09:09 AM"
Well, Don, I guess that shows what you know about Democrats.
Besides that, these polls mean nothing to voters because right now, Republic or Democrat, IT"S ABOUT THE MONEY (emphasis only) not the voters, as usual.
All these people are worried that someone else will soak up all the moola before they have a chance to grab it.
I predict some one of them will have over $100 million by . . . . July 07.
We are all going to be sick to death of them all before the first 08 vote is counted. We may not even know the name of the eventual winners yet.
In fact, we may not even get a chance to vote for any of them because they may all drop out BEFORE the first '08 vote is counted. This could be the final nail in democracy's coffin; the whole thing will be decided in 07, not 08.
Guess we better start to worry about the big '11 race for POTUS.
Posted by: C.Morris | February 27, 2007 4:59 PM
Of course the Conservatives have nothing of merit to contribute to this contribution. Their party has been intellectually bankrupt for years, and the trickle down effect has worked in that area alone.
Obama is making gains because of his message and appeal for unity. Clinton is still stomping the grounds far ahead of the so-called conservative candidates (while neither can prove themselves to be socially, fiscially, or ideologically conservatives), and Edwards is helping the base stregthen by setting forth policies.
Agree or disagree, but the Rovian political machine of character attacks will never win in this country again. We have far to many problems to solve and we are not in need another divider or someone who will only further contribute to those problems.
We need people like Clinton, Obama and Edwards.
Posted by: Western Voter | February 27, 2007 5:00 PM
Jeff, I would also look to the most recent comparative Zogby poll which actually shows the Republicans behind Democrats if the election were held today.
Obama would beat all three R's in the race right now. Clinton would beat out McCain and Romney.
Check your facts again.
Posted by: Western Voter | February 27, 2007 5:04 PM
Jeff -
How's Rudy going to win the general election when the religious right won't let him win the Republican nomination?
Anway, it doesn't matter. With the Iraq war hanging around the neck of the Republican nominee the Democrats are sure to win. Unless they nominate someone so convoluted in her stance regarding the war that she can't take advantage of this Republican weakness. The Democrats would never be that stupid, right? Right??
Posted by: Rich | February 27, 2007 5:30 PM
When Obama draw crowds of 7,000 to 20,000 to his events, i'd think he should be gaining in the polls.
Besides, he is the better candidate. Hillary, the queen, is just brittle novelty
Posted by: vwcat | February 27, 2007 7:13 PM
http://www.tucc.org/about.htm
Good morning... If anybody is looking for a new place of worship you may want to join in with Mr. Obama at his church. Sounds like he will be the president of ALL the people. I'll be very surprised if he still around for the Iowa primary.
Posted by: Don B | March 1, 2007 9:21 AM
Democratic donors should be worried as well. Leon Panetta says, Hillary Clinton didn't have a plan. The Clintons made Mr. Panetta's political career. Panetta is an able politician, so with all due respect, where was Mr. Panetta all these months? Of course, Mrs. Clinton didn't have a plan; she doesn't have a clue. Take Hillary’s dismissal of the recent photos of Barack Obama in African garb, saying those pictures are in the public domain. I know nothing about it. Although Hillary's campaign is attributed with distributing them, I find her rebuttal disingenuous, like saying my husband is Bill Clinton; I know nothing about it. Or, the earth revolves around the sun – I know nothing about it. When the machine breaks down, we break down, it is said. The Clinton camp has read the handwriting on the wall. They're broken down, breaking up; tired and disillusioned. Except for the wailing and gnashing of teeth, and the squirreling away of as much of that campaign money as possible, it may well be over. So, where was Mr. Panetta? Meet me in Monterey: http://theseedsof9-11.com
Posted by: Peggy McGilligan | February 27, 2008 3:40 PM