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The GOP meltdown

Someone convinced that John McCain will lose next month’s election – and go down big, along with the Republican presence in Congress – asked the other day if a disastrous 2008 for the GOP could spark the emergence of a more moderate “Mac Mathias” party in the future. After the Reagan Revolution took hold in the 1980s, the Democratic Leadership Council instructed candidates to move to the middle and appropriate themes from Republicans. The result of that discipline was Bill Clinton, welfare reform and budget surpluses. Now, with a potential meltdown on their hands this year, would the Republicans regroup and do the same?

I presented this question to a Maryland Republican activist and he was pessimistic about such a thing happening within the GOP. When times get tough, he said, the most active and passionate Republicans crank into gear, and for the last two decades that has been the extreme right – the red-meat Republicans out on the campaign trail now, booing John McCain when he asks for respect for Barack Obama, the ones who adore Sarah Palin and want to hear more of the dangerous, Nobama rhetoric of the last week.

The RLC supports low taxes with balanced budgets, strong national defense, an engaged foreign policy, protection of the environment, and “less government interference in individual lives.” So, this is the place for moderate Republicans -- fiscally responsible but socially tolerant; they want lower taxes and less government, but they allow for a range of opinions on social issues such as stem cell research and abortion. Speaking the other night in Missouri, former Sen. John Danforth said that, after witnessing the Bush administration intervene in the Terri Schiavo case, he saw the need for his party to get away from defining itself by social issues. “I thought, 'This was not the party I signed-on for,'" the Missourian quoted Danforth, an Episcopal priest. “During the time I was in office, I don't think it was a mystery what my religion was, just look at my background. I'm ordained. I've never believed anyone voted for me because of that, and I've never believed I should put that into my political agenda."

But the GOP, George W. Bush in particular, made a Faustian deal with the Christian right-wing of the party long ago, and McCain pulled up to that table this summer when he picked Sarah Palin as his running mate. Thus the spectacle of McCain and Palin, on the campaign trail, hearing shouts of “off with his head” and “terrorist” from the nasty crowds that sense a big defeat coming in a few weeks. Thus Mitt Romney, who would have been far more appealing as the candidate at the top of the GOP ticket this year, finds himself playing McCain surrogate in TV interviews, dismissed – even as a running mate -- for being a Mormon. Thus off-the-charts voter registration and a partisan shift to Democrats across the country. Thus, a big lean toward Obama among Hispanic immigrant voters turned off by conservative Republican fear-mongering and rejection of Bush’s compromise – the only good thing about his presidency – on illegals. Thus the possibility of a filibuster-proof Democratic majority, or close to it, in the Senate.

Though it would be a rocky road back for the GOP, it is not impossible for sanity to ultimately prevail, if the moderates that remain get off their rear-ends, just say no to hate-speech and fear-mongering, and take control of the party again. At least one poll in recent weeks, conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International for Newsweek, indicated that only 10 percent of Americans now regard family values and social issues -- abortion, guns, marriage -- as a priority for the next president. Crushing those issues in importance were the economy, naturally, followed by taxes and government spending, health care, the war in Iraq and energy policy. Though the extremist-booboisie is making a lot of noise right now, most Americans -- including, apparently, the majority of independent voters -- are looking right past them to much more important issues. If the GOP doesn’t see that and move toward the middle – taking the same kind of advice the DLC dished 20 years ago – it will be years before they have power again. Many years. They could be in for an ice age.

Posted by Dan Rodricks at 8:30 AM | | Comments (4)
        

Comments

"less government interference in individual lives.”


... right up until those individual lives want to have an abortion or marry their same-sex partner. If only they actually stayed true to that stated belief.

Hi,
I can remember back in 1980 that Ronald Reagan was being accused of snuggling up to the same kinds of Right-wing extremists that McCain/Palin are now accused of courting. I can remember talking to Americans back in 1977 who considered it an insult to Americans if you told them that someone like Reagan could be elected President. Reagan believed that there were no enemies on the Right and that included neo-Nazis who he was happy to em-
ploy for some of his nastier activities in Latin America. Most Americans, including most of those criticizing Palin, think Reagan was a great President.
It's Americans in general and not just some elements in the Republican Party who are scary. Obama is as eager to threaten war as any Republican.

Regards,
Robert J. Charleson.

I was a Mathias Republican. I changed my registration the morning after the Bentsen-Quayle debate. I had high hopes for John McCain being able to re-create the party I used to know. Right now, both sides look pretty scary.

It must be tough being a red-meat Republican right now. You know at your core that you are going to get smoked on Nov 4th and worst of all, you know that you deserve it.

Sarah Palin? What a joke.

Where did all of the smart Republicans go?

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About Dan Rodricks
Jan. 8, 2009, marked 30 years for Dan Rodricks' column in The Baltimore Sun. Over three decades, Dan has won numerous regional and several national awards for his reporting and commentary -- in print and on the air. "I've had opportunity to write a column and work in both radio and television, never having to leave my adopted hometown of Baltimore to have those experiences," he says. "I consider myself very fortunate." In addition to writing a twice-weekly column for The Baltimore Sun and his Random Rodricks blog, Dan is currently the host of Midday, on WYPR-FM, National Public Radio in Baltimore. An artful story-teller and social critic, he has observed local, state and national political and cultural trends for three decades, and has a lot to say about almost everything.
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