Obama scores among Indies
Results from instant polling -- conducted by text message and on-line during the debate -- by HCD Research and the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion shows Obama having scored effectively among independent voters on almost every subject touched on last night. Check it out at www.mediacurves.com
Glenn Kessler, left, president and CEO of HCD, which is a web-based research company in Flemington, N.J., had 2,000 people standing by last night with cell phones and laptops so they could score the candidates, question by question, answer by answer, instantly. I spoke to Kessler Wednesday on Midday. (You can hear a podcast of the conversation in the last 10 minutes of my hour with the Sun's David Zurawik.) Kessler's company has hooked up with Muhlenberg College to conduct the survey and others on the campaign. They want to gather instant public opinion, before the Olbermanns and other talking heads start spinning and telling viewers what they just heard. Kessler's firm paid people to respond to text messages or pop-ups on their laptops. Polls, surveys, focus groups -- each method of measuring opinion has problems associated with it. But this certainly seems far more precise than, say, people calling into a television network (or the Drudge Report) to say who won. That might be a good measure of who's popular on American Idol, but not how Americans feel about a candidate's response to a particular question.







Comments
For the first several questions, the site was updating (interestingly, independents were leaning toward Obama by at least 10 percentage points for the first several questions). I think the server must have been overwhelmed shortly thereafter, because I haven't gotten results since then.
Posted by: Sarah | September 26, 2008 10:45 PM
Dan - from Politico.com, this observation seems to confirm the results from the mediacurves polling system.
The two insta-polls out -- from CBS and CNN -- found that Obama won by a wide margin. CBS had it 39% to 25% for Obama, CNN 51% to 38%.
If these results are confirmed over the next few days, it will be interesting to determine what allowed Obama to connect to the independents.
Posted by: Ed Fishel | September 27, 2008 7:40 AM
I would say Obama fared better in the debate. McCain was far less polished in weaving in his talking points. He clumsily went off topic and threw in the most irrational, emotional tidbits of nonsense. He claims expert judgment because he’s been places and done things. He may have been many places and done many things, but also he’s stared facts in the face and still hasn’t seen the reality.
The most striking difference between them is their age. McCain looks older and older by the minute. McCain’s message may not be so terrible but the messenger delivering it looks and sounds feeble compared to Obama’s youth and vigor. The contrast made every statement of McCain’s sound old-fashioned and quaint, but not particularly intelligent or relevant.
Posted by: Truth Maverick | September 27, 2008 10:06 AM
How could Obama score on say...the Iraq issue? McCain clearly dominated that portion of the debate, from talking about his own personal experiences visiting the troops to criticizing Obama's opposition to the surge. To me these are things that incredibly skews these "polls." Even if you thought Obama won on other things there is no way anyone could say he won the Iraq portion, especially how he kept bringing up the decision to go to war instead of talking about what we are going to do now.
Posted by: Jeff | September 27, 2008 12:12 PM
Jeff, experience, whch McCain repeatedly came back too--he's now veered from experience, to being the man of change, and now back to experience again...pick one John--is meaningless if it doesn't counsel one's judgment. And McCain, for all his experience was flat wrong on the wisdom of commiting forces to Iraq. That's the large threshhold question for the next President who will be in charge of those forces and making decisions onwhether and where to deploy them in the future. Obama clearly laid out a plan for going forward. I thought it was McCain who didn't lay out a plan for going forward. The surge is over and those troops are coming home now, so it's pretty irrelevant at this point. Obama wants to wind down the force in Iraq and recommit troops to the effort in Afghanistan, where the Taliban and al-Queda are resurgent. He also outlined to costs of Iraq in both financial terms--we're spending $10B month when Iraq is swimming in oil profits giving them a $79B surplus--and our standing in the world--while we've been bogged down in Iraq, China has been free to exert its influence and trade connections around the globe and advance its economy, Russia has been unimpeded, North Korea has been free to do almost whatever it wants, and Iran as been free to push its nuclear program. McCain came nowhere een close to elaborating an extensive world view as this. Instead, he kept bringing up thr surge and how we're going to win in Iraq. All well and good, but this election of where we're going, not where we've been. And only one candidate spoke to that and it wasn't John McCain.
Posted by: Geof | September 27, 2008 12:33 PM
Yeah but everyone seems to forget that McCain has the qualifications and experience to be President--and Obama has neither. To paraphrase Billy Crystal and Fernando Lamas, it is not better to look good than to be good!
Posted by: R.Van | September 27, 2008 3:35 PM
If you were paying close attention to the speeches of each candidates, especially on the economy you should have noticed how McCain kept referencing how important it was to create businesses and new jobs, etc..again looking out for the big corporate interest he claims he's so against. Not to mention tax cuts. Now if you make over $250k a year, than I'd say John McCain is your man. He'll look out for you. But for those of us who are "average" citizens and are not priviledge to have trust accounts, go to ivy league schools and make six figures incomes, Obama is the better candidate. John McCain wants to tax health insurance! Are you kidding me! It's bad enough that the taxpayers have to pay the price for the deregulation crisis caused by George Bush/John McCain good ol boys. I believe the debates were clear regarding who has the best interest of the people and who is looking to make the rich even richer. The bottom line is there are still some people who have the "Bubba" syndrome and although they do not agree with McCain's policies refuse to vote for Obama because he's of mixed race.
Posted by: Yesbama | September 27, 2008 5:00 PM
I wonder where this "refuse to vote for Obama because he's of mixed race" comes from. Could it be because in the primary election 97% of blacks voted for Obama over the white woman - Hillary Clinton? Was that a racist vote or is only when people dont vote for Obama that it is racist? What about me, the African American independent who knows that Obama's philosophies will destroy this country's free enterprise system and will be voting for McCain? Am I too a racist or just an "Uncle Tom"? Those remarks need to be scrutinized more by the press to show that the racism occurred in the Democratic primary.
Posted by: Samuel | September 27, 2008 9:31 PM
Congratulations, Yesbama.....you have effectively summarized the ridiculous notion that a vote for "Bubba" and the "good ol boys" is somehow an indictment against anyone who is racist enough to pull the lever underneath McCain's name come November.
What a travesty. What an absolute crime in twisting McCain's pro-business platform into some kind of psychotic socialist smear campaign that Hillary Clinton might as well have whispered in your ear while you were sleeping.
How long ago was it that every challenger to Obama blistered him on his inexperience, including your socialist-spewing spawn, Hillary? Cry me a river that you don't make enough money. I sure don't make a whole lot....I'm a teacher. But to pervert the structure of our democracy to allude that "some people" don't know enough to vote Obama means that there are "some people" who will only vote for him BECAUSE he is black.
P.T. Barnum sure had you pegged years ago when he said, "No one ever went broke under-estimating the intelligence of the American public."
Posted by: Chris | September 27, 2008 10:48 PM
Yes Chris, no one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public and you are a testament to that statement.
Posted by: Annoyed | September 28, 2008 11:46 AM
McCain had problems addressing Obama directly. He never once looked him in the eye. Perhaps he wasn't able to look at Obama or perhaps he didn't want to but in either case if McCain won't look a democratic challenger in the eye what will he do with a world leader who is potentially much more than a friendly competitor.
Posted by: Frank | September 28, 2008 12:49 PM