Keiffer Mitchell's campaign manager put this message out to supporters this afternoon:
"Thank you to all those who voted this morning. Your votes are making a
difference. Early returns from key precincts show this is going to be a very
close race. "
Yeah, well . . . voter turnout could be as low as 28 percent in this election. The city precincts I visited today looked like nice places to take a siesta. That was the story all over Baltimore, apparently.
Why?
It's what I said in Sunday's column -- nothing bold, nothing brassy, nothing new, nothing different in the leading candidates for mayor. Boring choices. Tweedle-Dee, Tweedle-Dee. Add to that the Sun poll results and local TV stations Sunday night pretty much saying the election was over, with Dixon the winner, and you have the makings of a sleepy city primary.
On the other hand, supporters of Dixon might have been so confident of a landslide they didn't bother to vote. Logic would give the edge in that scenario to Mitchell. But, given polls of likely voters within the last couple of weeks, a Mitchell victory -- even a loss by under six percentage points -- would be nothing short of a stunning upset.
The last poll, from OpinionWorks, showed a heavy number of undecided voters, something like 20 percent. You'd think that would bode well for Mitchell. But the same poll detected no "lean" among the undecideds either way. That's why a lot of people stayed home -- dissatisfaction with both the leading candidates.
Nothing personal, but this is one of the weakest choices I've ever seen.
In 1983, Billy Murphy challenged William Donald Schaefer. That was a fascinating campaign -- Harborplace and the establishment versus the poor and others left out of the Baltimore Renaissance. Murphy spoke of "the other Baltimore" in that campaign, and Schaefer resented the way Murphy contrasted downtown redevelopment with the poverty and abandonment of long, wide swaths of the city. (Within a few years, however, we heard Schaefer speaking of "the other Baltimore," too, actually acknowledging that it existed.) Voter turnout was 60 percent. Schaefer won big.
Kurt Schmoke emerged in the 1987 primary; his opponent was Schaefer's successor, Du Burns. Having won the 1982 election for city state's attorney, Schmoke had become -- and had stayed -- an exciting, new face on the political landscape. Burns represented old-school Baltimore. The contest gave city voters a chance to pick Baltimore's first elected black mayor. Voter turnout was 46 percent. Schmoke won, of course, and he brought energy to City Hall and the promise of a biracial coalition that could get things done and help tip the balance toward an urban revival. It was nice while it lasted.
By 1995, Schmoke had been in office way too long, and his challenger in the primary that year was longtime City Council member and community activist Mary Pat Clarke. Clarke hammered Schmoke for his lackluster tenure in City Hall. Schmoke, dashing all hopes for a biracial citywide coalition, deployed Afro-centric campaign colors. It was a divisive campaign, but certainly a provocative one. Democratic turnout was 52 percent. (Voters kept Schmoke another four years.)
Martin O'Malley's candidacy in the 1999 primary excited city voters, many of whom crossed racial lines to put a white man in City Hall.
And here we are, 2007, Tweedle-dee, Tweedle-dee, Ho-hum.