Another handicapper gives Harris nod over Kratovil
Independent campaign analyst Charlie Cook has tipped the Maryland One congressional race into the "lean Republican" category.
Until now, Cook had classified the Frank Kratovil-Andy Harris rematch as a tossup.
Other prognosticators, including Stu Rothenberg, publisher of an independent election newsletter, had made Harris the favorite for some time.
Cook has now put 21 Democratic incumbent or open Democratic House seats in the "lean Republican" category, including Kratovil's. Another 8 Democratic districts are in his "likely Republican" group. And he rates a total of 49 House seats now held by Democrats as pure tossups.
By contrast, only one Republican seat is in his tossup category, two others lean Democratic and a third is in the likely Democratic category.
The Cook Political Report's pre-election forecast calls for a net Republican gain of 50 to 60 House seats, "with higher Democratic losses possible." It would take a net pickup of 39 seats for Republicans to regain the control of the House that they lost in the 2006 election.
In the battle for the Senate, Cook's prediction is a Republican gain of six to eight seats, short of the net of ten needed for the GOP to take control of that chamber as well. Cook says the chances of a Senate Republican takeover "are now non-existent."