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October 5, 2010

Second poll out showing O'Malley momentum

A just-released Rasmussen Reports poll shows Democratic Gov. Martin O'Malley with an eight-point advantage over Republican former Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr., a lead that comes after months of polls by the firm that had the race in a dead heat.

The results prompted Rasmussen, which some consider a Republican-friendly firm, to reclassify the governor's race from "toss-up" to "leans Democratic." Other groups, including The Cook Political Report, still regard the race as a toss-up.

It's the second poll out in the past week to show O'Malley gaining momentum as the governor's race enters its final month. A Washington Post poll published Sept. 29 gave O'Malley an 11-point advantage over Ehrlich among likely voters. An earlier poll by the newspaper had the candidates tied among likely voters.

Henry Fawell, a spokesman for the Ehrlich campaign, said the candidate continues to find enthusiasm on the campaign trail. He had a large roast over the weekend in Baltimore County, attended by 3,000 or so supporters, and will soon roll out details of a busy final month schedule, Fawell said.

"It is clear as Bob Ehrlich travels that state meeting with everyday Marylanders that their concerns remain the stagnant economy and a tax burden that makes it harder to pay bill," Fawell said. "They're aligned with Ehrlich's message of more jobs and lower taxes."

O'Malley yesterday launched his "On Your Side Express," an RV tour replete with a traveling kitchen table.

Posted by Julie Bykowicz at 2:19 PM | | Comments (30)
Categories: Horserace


well if they consider the race over their is no reason for people to vote.?

The more Ehrlich travels the state, the more people are breaking for O'Malley. Wonder why that is.

"and will soon roll out details of a busy final month schedule, Fawell said"

Does Ehrlich ever have details on anything? This is the way he ran Maryland into to ground his lazy ineffective fee raising free spending failed term.

What is the margin of error on this poll? How was it conducted?

From Julie: It is a telephone survey, conducted in the same manner as all Rasmussen polls. Please click on the link I provided for additional details.

The good news is Ehrlich got a haircut and ate a grilled cheese sandwich.

OMalley's fortunate that he's locked up the freeloader vote and the IQ-under 70 vote. That's an automatic 45% right there.

Really, O'Malley ahead? It's not surprising that a "poll" conducted in Maryland would show O'Malley ahead. Just more spin from "unbiased" media in a corrupt state. Polls do not show what is really coming. There is a political revolution happening, an awareness that the real problem is the politicians, themselves, and O'Malley, and the rest of the arrogant parasites will be swept away in the coming tide.

Is O'Malley taking the college kids on his RV tour, especially the one in the ad that says his Mom is a teacher and 16 seconds later says he's the first in his family to go to college? (Hat tip to Bruce Elliott who brought this up on Saturday; the ad is still running and Bruce is correct).

If Owe'Malley is going to start traveling the state now, the momentum could easily swing back to Ehrlich.

Wiley, I sure hope you are right. O"Malley, particularly, is sooooooooo mediocre.

@wileyPurkey , you must be a republican , and we all know they don't give a squat about anything but corporate America , that's why our country is falling apart , thirty yrs of neglect of infrastructure from the republican party !

Wiley, you realize that Ehrlich is also a politician right?

Maybe you can go ahead and jump in that tide that is going to watch all the parasites away.

"This is the way he ran Maryland into to ground his lazy ineffective fee raising free spending failed term."

If he would have not raised fees you same people would now be blaming him for an even BIGGER debt and deficit than we have now.

"that's why our country is falling apart , thirty yrs of neglect of infrastructure from the republican party !"

No unfounded bias there huh?

Ras polls are garbage, BUT if they have MOM up 8 BE is in deep trouble. With BE less is more.

Oh Boobie E., with supporters like Wiley Purkey, "and the rest of the arrogant parasites will be swept away in the coming tide" you do not need enemies. So, Wiley, is this the coming apocalypse, the rapture sure as Hell?!?!

Of course O'Malady's going to win. A socialist governor for a socialist state.

when he lost the first time the Sun had him on the front page for a year. Maybe this time he'll get his own section.

It;s not that Ehrlich raised fees, it;s that spend that and created more debt to try and buy re-election.

USA Today has a poll from Friday showing O'Malley up by 5.7 points

Can you delete my website from my comment, I accidently posted the incorrect url.

you all are so clueless.

to those who are saying Rasmussen is "national media" you have no clue. liberals lambasted Rasmussen for being "right-leaning" when showed ehrlich ahead, now they rejoice in Rasmussen when the show their boy ahead.

and for anyone who says ehrlich ran the state into the ground, i'm sorry but where do you get this from? he left the state with a $1b operating surplus in his final term in 2006. o'malley's 2007 tax increase (to solve the $1.5b structural budget deficit - created in 2002 with the passage of mandated education spending) has left the state with another $1.6b deficit in 2010.

in-state tuition has gone up under both governors.

bge has gone up under both governors mainly because no one can do anything about it - it's called market prices, get used to it and blame the 1999 Maryland General Assembly for artificially keeping rates low.

spending went up under both governors.

at-will employees (who serve at the pleasure of the appointing authority) were fired under both governors. these employees know their job is/was 'at-will'.

ehrlich says he will repeal o'malley's 20% sales tax increase but hasn't said anything about what he will do to replace that spending or cut spending

o'malley is STILL blaming ehrlich for 72% bge rate hikes that EVERYONE knows Ehrlich couldn't stop and O'Malley lied about stopping

Ehrlich is warning people that another tax increases awaits them. O'Malley won't say that's off the table - translation, ehrlich is right.

O'malley furloughed employees and on the day of the announcement that the state is saving $33m, it was also reported that the state spent $1.7m on land purchases for program open space.

grow up people

not only is Owe'malley lying in his ads, but he can't even come up with an original slogan for his tour 'On your side?'. I think someone else called that one...

Maybe after losing the election working as an agent for Nationwide, he can use that. I think they should stop him like the NFL is going after Russ Feingold for using game clips.

So Ehrlich is desperate for calling out MoM's lies? Is that how that works.

Well, it worked in 2006, I guess it may work in 2010. Lie your way into office!

If you listen carefully you can hear the fat lady warming up her vocal chords. At this stage of the game, if you were going to donate money to the Ehrlich campaign it appears you will better serve yourself and your community by giving it to your favorite charity instead. Why throw it down a rat hole? It's over.

I agree with Jack, regarding the surplus that was left by the Ehrlich administration, I was a State employee at the time and anything coming out of the present administration you can't believe it anyway, just get ready for another tax increase from ooooomalley if he wins, as a state employee we were first told about furlough's and in the same breath they added salary reduction in order to increase revenue but this wasn't enough people were still given pink slips, but yet he (MOM) still have funds to purchase wetlands, this was more important than people and their families. Now he's courting the African American communities for their vote only, after that, he won't even know or recognize you as a human being, wake up African Americans and check your history, (heritage) and think outside the box..

CM - Your right he (MOM) should not have furloughed State employees, you should have been laid off and then you would have actually had something to complain about. Sounds like you have a personal issues.

People now realize state and federal spending for nice-sounding programs don't accomplish concrete results. Our failed education system is example one. Clinton, Bush, and Obama pour money in; nothing comes out. The various governors, including Ehrlich, did the same. Funding low income programs don't cut crime and don't spur entrepreurship by people who want to be given money from taxpayers. Aside from keeping roads safe and funding cops so they aren't outgunned by the drug dealers, little govt spending is justified. Throwing illegal immigrants out of Maryland would be a useful investment, but that won't happen-both Ehrlich, a Bush moderate, and O'Malley who never met a "minority" group he didn't want to throw our money at, are terrified of being called racists.

Jack, there is nothing inconsistent about criticizing Rasmussen. Rasmussen has a well-documented lean to the right. You might want to read some of Nate Silver's work on comparing polling accuracy. Most liberals were happy with the prior poll purporting to show a dead heat (it's not, but I won't bore you with a stats lesson), because of this Republican house effect. They are even more delighted these days.

Ehrlich left office with a 1 billion unspent, but that's different from having a structural surplus. He knew that there was a tidal wave of expenses coming because he raised those expenses himself. He raised expenses by $8 Billion while in office. Compare that to O'Malley's record of having CUT expenses while in office. Ehrlich says he will cut taxes. He won't say where he'll get the money. He won't say how he'll keep from raising our spending by another $8 billion (and sticking us with "FEES").

didactic1, nothing comes out? What are you talking about. The city's school system is making great strides toward improving its test scores.

Comment all you like on what level of spending YOU think is justified, but you must live in constant frustration that such a large majority disagrees with you. I don't think Ehrlich has a problem with being called a racist. It certainly appears he doesn't mind being supported by them. He's never made any effort to disavow support from the racists who have publicly backed him.

Ha! Ehrlich trailing on Rasmussen? That's like missing the cut in tee ball.

A.Lawerence, you're right it is personal and it's a professional plop on his administration as to way the State Employees have been lied to. And I was laid off after 17 years with the State.

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About the bloggers
Annie Linskey covers state politics and government for The Baltimore Sun. Previously, as a City Hall reporter, she wrote about the corruption trial of Mayor Sheila Dixon and kept a close eye on city spending. Originally from Connecticut, Annie has also lived in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, where she reported on war crimes tribunals and landmines. She lives in Canton.

John Fritze has covered politics and government at the local, state and federal levels for more than a decade and is now The Baltimore Sun’s Washington correspondent. He previously wrote about Congress for USA TODAY, where he led coverage of the health care overhaul debate and the 2010 election. A native of Albany, N.Y., he currently lives in Montgomery County.

Julie Scharper covers City Hall and Baltimore politics. A native of Baltimore County, she graduated from The Johns Hopkins University in 2001 and spent two years teaching in Honduras before joining The Baltimore Sun. She has followed the Amish community of Nickel Mines, Pa., in the year after a schoolhouse massacre, reported on courts and crime in Anne Arundel County, and chronicled the unique personalities and places of Baltimore City and its surrounding counties.
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