Second poll in two days gives O'Malley 14 point lead
The Washington Post Monday morning released a new poll that estimates Democratic Gov. Martin O'Malley is 14 percentage points ahead of his GOP challenger former Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich, Jr., a spread that exactly matches the Sun poll published Sunday.
The Sun's poll, conducted by OpinionWorks, showed O'Malley with 52 percent support and Ehrlich at 38.
The Post's poll gives O'Malley a stronger lead over than survey they published in late September which had O'Malley with an 11 point advantage.
Ehrlich will undoubtedly try to downplay the results of both papers' questionnaires when he outlines of his plans for his first week as governor at an afternoon event in Essex. His campaign over the weekend had tried to spin The Sun poll as an outlier that bucked a general trend that the race was narrowing.
On Sunday during an appearance with former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani Ehrlich quipped that the Sun's poll was unreliable because it was over sampling from "new Americans," a euphemism O'Malley frequently uses for illegal immigrants. He also stressed his recent fund raising numbers that show he's raked in more cash than O'Malley in the last reporting period -- though O'Malley has raised more overall.
And Ehrlich joked with a crowd of supporters the only indicator that matters is the number of "friends" on each candidate's Facebook page. Ehrlich has 63,589. O'Malley has 29,179.
Here are some comparisons between the two polls.
The spread (among likely voters):
The Sun: 52 O'Malley to 38 Ehrlich
The Post: 54 O'Malley to 40 Ehrlich
The Sun: 88 O'Malley to 4 Ehrlich (Sun model assumed black voters would be 19 percent of electorate)
The Post: 88 O'Malley to 6 Ehrlich (Post model assumed black voters would be 21 percent of electorate)
The Sun: 48 Ehrlich to 42 O'Malley
The Post: 50 Ehrlich to 44 O'Malley
Dates in field:
The Sun: Oct. 15 to 20.
The Post: Oct. 19 to 22.