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October 25, 2010

Second poll in two days gives O'Malley 14 point lead

The Washington Post Monday morning released a new poll that estimates Democratic Gov. Martin O'Malley is 14 percentage points ahead of his GOP challenger former Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich, Jr., a spread that exactly matches the Sun poll published Sunday.

The Sun's poll, conducted by OpinionWorks, showed O'Malley with 52 percent support and Ehrlich at 38.

The Post's poll gives O'Malley a stronger lead over than survey they published in late September which had O'Malley with an 11 point advantage.

Ehrlich will undoubtedly try to downplay the results of both papers' questionnaires when he outlines of his plans for his first week as governor at an afternoon event in Essex. His campaign over the weekend had tried to spin The Sun poll as an outlier that bucked a general trend that the race was narrowing.

On Sunday during an appearance with former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani Ehrlich  quipped that the Sun's poll was unreliable because it was over sampling from "new Americans," a euphemism O'Malley frequently uses for illegal immigrants. He also stressed his recent fund raising numbers that show he's raked in more cash than O'Malley in the last reporting period -- though O'Malley has raised more overall.

And Ehrlich joked with a crowd of supporters the only indicator that matters is the number of "friends" on each candidate's Facebook page. Ehrlich has 63,589. O'Malley has 29,179.  

Here are some comparisons between the two polls.

The spread (among likely voters):
The Sun: 52 O'Malley to 38 Ehrlich
The Post: 54 O'Malley to 40 Ehrlich

Black voters:
The Sun: 88 O'Malley to 4 Ehrlich (Sun model assumed black voters would be 19 percent of electorate)
The Post: 88 O'Malley to 6 Ehrlich (Post model assumed black voters would be 21 percent of electorate)

White voters
The Sun: 48 Ehrlich to 42 O'Malley
The Post: 50 Ehrlich to 44 O'Malley

Dates in field:
The Sun: Oct. 15 to 20.
The Post: Oct. 19 to 22.

Posted by Annie Linskey at 5:30 AM | | Comments (6)
Categories: Candidate Watch 2010


Maryland Republicans can thank Bob Ehrlich for destroying thier party.

What as shame. Does this mean Maryland Stae Government won't be filled with the likes of ice dancers and spouses of WBAL radio talk show hosts again?

and the basements of maryland were filled the sounds of ruggedly independent sobbing.

It would be nice if conservatives woke up and realized that they are dramatically outnumbered in this VERY blue state. Ehrlich should have spent the last 4 years organizing a GOTV and public information effort in concert with other Republicans. You have to build a reliable base before you can win statewide races. The MD GOP was lulled to sleep by the victory over Kennedy-Townsend in 2002. They starting to think that the Democrats were on the wane. They were wrong. 2002 was a fluke. The Republicans need to get their act together and start building a reliable voter base in Central Maryland and start cultivating good candidates statewide. Otherwise, these loses will only continue.

As long as O'Malley make the statement that he see's illegals as new Americans, the black population in Baltimore will have to put up with them.So if you think he's looking out for you, you're wrong.Just because you're a democrat doesn't mean you HAVE to vote that way. I not, I'm voting for the person who I feel is going to support me.

All Maryland needs is another term of former Governor Ehrlich and his Political Cronyism. All of us will be dealing with his BGE nonsense loading the PSC with his political cronies his last term. Its not wonder I see all of his signs dotting the highways, he has all of the developers and construction companies in his back pocket. He cares more about them then he does about Joe Blow who has to feed his family and keep a roof over his head.

At this point in Bob Ehrlich's last campaign, when he realized his goose was cooked, he dumped $300,000 of his donors' money into a commodities trading firm registered to crony who had never been paid for any kind of campaign services before or after.

Watch how Mr. Ehrlich reacted when WBAL TV's Jayne Miller asked him about it last week:

I-Team Questions Money Spend During Ehrlich's '06 Campaign

Mr. Ehrlich and his staff refused to explain why they paid over $300,000 of their donors' money to the mysterious Allied Berton LLC, which calls itself an international commodities trading firm and is owned by Ehrlich supporter Sandy Roberts, who obtained a controversial retail concession at BWI during the Ehrlich administration.

Now that Mr. Ehrlich's last pre-election campaign finance report has been filed, we won't know until after Election Day whether he will pay a large and questionable sum of his donors' money to Allied Berton or anyone else in the final days of this campaign.....unless Mr. Ehrlich continues to face questions he doesn't want to answer.

- Steve Lebowitz, Annapolis

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About the bloggers
Annie Linskey covers state politics and government for The Baltimore Sun. Previously, as a City Hall reporter, she wrote about the corruption trial of Mayor Sheila Dixon and kept a close eye on city spending. Originally from Connecticut, Annie has also lived in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, where she reported on war crimes tribunals and landmines. She lives in Canton.

John Fritze has covered politics and government at the local, state and federal levels for more than a decade and is now The Baltimore Sun’s Washington correspondent. He previously wrote about Congress for USA TODAY, where he led coverage of the health care overhaul debate and the 2010 election. A native of Albany, N.Y., he currently lives in Montgomery County.

Julie Scharper covers City Hall and Baltimore politics. A native of Baltimore County, she graduated from The Johns Hopkins University in 2001 and spent two years teaching in Honduras before joining The Baltimore Sun. She has followed the Amish community of Nickel Mines, Pa., in the year after a schoolhouse massacre, reported on courts and crime in Anne Arundel County, and chronicled the unique personalities and places of Baltimore City and its surrounding counties.
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