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October 23, 2010

Ehrlich, O'Malley campaigns react to Sun poll

The Sun just published the findings of its recent poll, showing Gov. Martin O'Malley with a substantial lead over former Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr.

The headline numbers: The Democratic incumbent has a 14-point advantage over his Republican challenger, 52 to 38. More than half of respondents viewed O'Malley favorably, compared to less than half with a favorable view of Ehrlich.

Both campaigns quickly fired off reaction statements. One from The Maryland Republican Party came in later in the evening.

Ehrlich's team issued "briefing points" questioning the accuracy of the poll, pointing to other recent polls that have shown the candidates to be in a tighter race. "The Sun poll published today is in total conflict with the trend over the past month showing Bob Ehrlich consistently closing the gap with Martin O’Malley," Ehrlich spokesman Andy Barth said in a statement. (Entire Ehrlich and GOP poll reaction after the jump.)

Here's what O'Malley Campaign Manager Tom Russell had to say: "The latest Baltimore Sun poll shows that Maryland families are rejecting Bob Ehrlich's failed policies of the past in favor of Martin O'Malley's plan to move Maryland forward. With Maryland citizens already casting early votes, we fully expect Bob Ehrlich to become increasingly more desperate and negative as he tries to save his 24-year political career. Maryland families know what's at stake in this election -- they don't want to go back."

Ehrlich Briefing Points

* The Sun poll published today is in total conflict with the trend over the past month showing Bob Ehrlich consistently closing the gap with Martin O’Malley.

* A month ago, a Washington Post poll showed Bob Ehrlich down by 11 points. Two weeks ago, a Rasmussen poll showed Bob Ehrlich narrowing O’Malley’s lead to 8 points. Just four days ago, a Gonzales poll showed Bob Ehrlich closing the gap yet again to just five points. After six months of dishonest attack ads from Martin O’Malley – and his failure to propose any new ideas for Maryland – Bob Ehrlich has consistently closed the gap with a concrete plan to get Maryland working again.

* Bob Ehrlich takes clear momentum in to the final 10 days of this campaign.

* Fundraising: Yesterday it was reported that Bob Ehrlich nearly doubled Martin O’Malley in fundraising for the second consecutive reporting period. Not only did Ehrlich raise more money than O’Malley ($2.8 million to $1.6 million), but he also has a sizeable advantage in cash in the bank ($1.7 million to $1.1 million.)

* Economic Stagnation: Maryland’s unemployment rate rose for the second straight month in September to 7.5% as the private sector continues to shed jobs in Maryland. Maryland’s economic woes are in stark contrast with Martin O’Malley’s dishonest campaign rhetoric and reinforce O’Malley’s failure to create one single job in Maryland over the last four years.

* Endorsements: Bob Ehrlich is picking up several endorsements in the closing days of the campaign, including former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, the Maryland Fraternal Order of Police, The Gazette Newspapers, and the Patuxent Newspapers. In its endorsement, The Gazette wrote, “Ehrlich is the best candidate to take on Maryland's unavoidable financial problems, all while maintaining quality schools, investing in vital transportation improvements, protecting basic human and health services and restoring a can-do business climate.”

* Bob Ehrlich is running to bring strong leadership to the governor’s office. His agenda of more jobs, lower taxes, and less spending is exactly what Maryland needs to move past Martin O’Malley’s legacy of record job losses, record deficits, and record tax increases.

From Maryland Republican Party spokesman Ryan Mahoney:

"Today’s poll from the Baltimore Sun runs contrary to every poll from the last month showing Bob Ehrlich closing the gap with Martin O’Malley. It’s difficult for Maryland voters to take seriously, a poll conducted by the same pollster that the O’Malley lackeys at Center Maryland* hired to prop up their former boss earlier this summer. This election is about solutions for making Maryland stronger and Bob Ehrlich has laid out a plan, while Martin O’Malley has run a year long smear campaign to distract from his failed record. Next week on Election Day, Maryland voters will conduct the only poll that matters in this race and I’m confident they will choose Bob Ehrlich and his vision for restoring Maryland’s economy.”

* Here is an earlier blog entry on the OpinionWorks poll released to Center Maryland.



Posted by Julie Bykowicz at 5:00 PM | | Comments (9)
Categories: Horserace


Ehrlich down 14 is like saying the Sun isn't biased.

Different polls have different methodologies. You can't take two polls and say that the directional difference between them is a trend. The proper way to track a trend is by using the same poll over a period. In this respect, all of the recent polls show a wider margin than the previous poll taken.

I know the Ehrlich camp has to put the best face on this, but Andy Barth certainly knows better. I feel sorry that he has been forced by his employer issue these statement. He is really a nice guy who has gotten caught up in something he is not ethically prepared for. My heart goes out to him.

@ I.P.Feehley-You better hope your boy O'Malley doesn't win,or it might cost you to pee anywhere.You think you're clever but anybody who doesn't have the Kahaunas to post their real name,shouldn't be taken seriously.You don't even have a heart,out of all the comments I've ever read,yours HAS TO BE ONE OF THE MOST LUDICROUS.In spite of every other poll showing the exact opposite of what you said,you still back the most biased newspaper I have ever read and their poll.What a loser.

One only has to read the Ehrlich briefing points to understand why this angry delusional failed ex-gov is going to lose his grudgematch. Hopefully he will take his lobbyist gambling/big utility/big tobacco/big oil millions somewhere else.

Can you post the full poll? If you paid for it then why don't you share it at least as much as the Washington Post did.

Here's where I agree with the pollster:
1) Republican turnout will be up
2) African-American turnout will be down

Here's where I disagree with the chop-shop-pollster:
1) Counting only the last four general elections is a faulty sample. Consider nearly every reputable national pollster pegs this election cycle as somewhere between 1994 and 1944. Instead, this pollster chose to average out 2008 (record Dem turnout), 2006 great Dem year, 2004 a tossup year, and 2002 a medium-to-good Rep year. It tilts the results strongly the Dem favor.
2) Not a snowball's chance in hell that Ehrlich loses the metro-Baltimore area. I don't buy that. He won it even in 2006.

The race is probably +3 O'Malley right now. Perhaps a little more in the +4-+5 range.

If OpinionWorks wants to bet on their poll, I'd refi my house and bet it all that it's much closer than they say and under 10 points.

Do you remember when deceptive Sun polls said that Du Burns was going to lose in a landslide and all of his fundraising dried up and he lost by a couple of percentage points. The Sun is trying to change the outcome yet again

Stick a fork in Bob "Big Business" Ehrlich. Love seeing those huge blue posters come down in a couple of weeks. LOL

Hey Burt from Essex, that's an interesting "real name" your parents (presumably Mr. and Mrs. Essex?) gave you. How do you know my name isn't really IPFrehley? What if my parents had a great sense of humor?

Anyway, how do you feel now that two MORE polls have come out in the past two days showing Ehrlich down by at least 10 points.

Like I said before, Barth has to say what he said because it's his job. He comes from a journalist background where it pains him not to tell the truth. But that is the charge he's taken up by volunteering for this gig.

I would think you would feel bad for him as well. He's an ethical man forced to renounce the search for truth that underlines his core professional principles.

IPFrehley there is no ethics in politics.
Have you forgotten's MOM's ads blaming Ehrlich for the gulf oil spill?
Or MOM's inability to even say illegal immigrants? Those new Americans are costing Marylanders up to 2 billion dollars a year in lost tax revune.
After MOM's win what taxes will he raise first for this utopian society known as Maryland?
My money is on the gas tax since both governors have raided the roads fund over the years to balance the budget.

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About the bloggers
Annie Linskey covers state politics and government for The Baltimore Sun. Previously, as a City Hall reporter, she wrote about the corruption trial of Mayor Sheila Dixon and kept a close eye on city spending. Originally from Connecticut, Annie has also lived in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, where she reported on war crimes tribunals and landmines. She lives in Canton.

John Fritze has covered politics and government at the local, state and federal levels for more than a decade and is now The Baltimore Sun’s Washington correspondent. He previously wrote about Congress for USA TODAY, where he led coverage of the health care overhaul debate and the 2010 election. A native of Albany, N.Y., he currently lives in Montgomery County.

Julie Scharper covers City Hall and Baltimore politics. A native of Baltimore County, she graduated from The Johns Hopkins University in 2001 and spent two years teaching in Honduras before joining The Baltimore Sun. She has followed the Amish community of Nickel Mines, Pa., in the year after a schoolhouse massacre, reported on courts and crime in Anne Arundel County, and chronicled the unique personalities and places of Baltimore City and its surrounding counties.
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