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August 19, 2010

Latest poll: O'Malley, Ehrlich 'essentially tied'

Democratic Gov. Martin O’Malley and Republican former Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. remain “essentially tied” according to results of a Rasmussen Reports poll released Thursday.

The statewide telephone survey of 750 likely voters conducted Tuesday shows O’Malley with 45 percent support and Ehrlich with 44 percent. For the third straight month, the difference fell well within the 4 percent margin of error.

In the first independent survey to be released since former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin endorsed businessman Brian Murphy for the Republican gubernatorial nomination, 3 percent said they supported what Rasmussen identified as “some other candidate.” The survey results do not name Murphy or any other candidate.

When taking into account “leaners” – defined by Rasmussen as respondents who initially indicate no preference for either of the candidates but say in a follow-up question they are leaning towards one of them – O’Malley and Ehrlich are tied with 47 percent support.

According to Rasmussen, the numbers without leaners are generally more significant early in a campaign; later the numbers with leaners matter more. Rasmussen continues to rate the race a toss-up.

Other findings, after the jump.

• 90 percent of Republicans support Ehrlich; 70 percent of Democrats support O’Malley.

• 78 percent of O’Malley voters say they already are certain how they will vote in November; 72 percent of Ehrlich voters say the same.

• 55 percent of all voters say O’Malley is either somewhat or very liberal; 25 percent say he is a moderate.

• 76 percent of all voters say Ehrlich is either somewhat or very conservative; 13 percent say he is a moderate.

• 55 percent describe the views of O’Malley’s and 51 percent describe the views of Ehrlich as mainstream. 30 percent describe the views of Ehrlich and 27 percent describe the views of O’Malley as extreme.

• 54 percent approve of O’Malley’s performance as governor, up from 50 percent in July. 45 percent disapprove.

• 55 percent have a somewhat or very favorable impression of O’Malley; 42 percent have a somewhat or very unfavorable impression.

• 56 percent have a somewhat or very favorable impression of Ehrlich; 38 percent have a somewhat or very unfavorable impression.

Earlier this summer, The Sun examined the role of partisan pollsters in the Maryland governor's race.

Posted by Matthew Hay Brown at 11:00 AM | | Comments (16)
        

Comments

What does Palin or Murphy have to do with this poll? You need an Ehrlich-Murphy poll.

Its a Rasmussen poll, so spot O'Malley a couple more points and you still have a close race. It all boils down to the Democratic machine. If they can get voters to the polls, O'Malley wins. If people stay home, its four more years of Bobby Smooth.

I'd like to know who and where these people are located, I've never been called to participate in one of these survey's. Gov Ehrlich will win this fall's election, everyone is fed up with the lies an deceitfulness that is being potrayed by o'malley cronies. People wake up and smell the roses and start thinking for yourself and stop letting yourself be led in the wrong direction..You should research your history books to see for yourself.

49% of voters surveyed say they've voted for an independent candidate...no way. We have never had a credible 3rd party run statewide and Ross Perot got 14% of the vote 18 years ago. Either this sample was skewed or this is just one more problem with robo-polls.

How did we know that Republican pollster Rasmussen would come out with a poll that says Bob Ehrlich is tight with the Governor.

They are trying to deflect attention from Ehrlich's struggling campaign who can't even raise enough money to remain competitive. Maybe he should have a fundraiser with Sarah Palin. Wait she endorsed the other guy!

cm must work for Ehrlich. only his employees still refer to him as "Gov".

Even Rasmussen can't hide the truth. The poll says majority of Marylanders support the Governor and the President. These people will never support Bob Ehrlich.

Game. Set. Match

What has Ehrlich accomplished in his four months of campaigning? Nothing. He is still at 44%! Ehrlich CANNOT win.

Ehrlich is running is the best political environment for Republicans and he still cannot win over voter.s

Maybe Marylanders don't want another CAREER POLITICIAN.

Vote Murphy !

I don't know how many times I have to post this but two candidates being within the margin of error doesn't make themn tied. There is a probability distribution around these mean rates of support. The part of Ehrlich's distribution that is above 45% (O'Malley's mean) is smaller than O'Malley's is. This means that there is a higher probability that O'Malley's support is more than 45% of the vote than Ehrlich's. They are NOT tied.

@cm

Let me "research" my history books (why can't I just read them?):

Bob Ehrlich RAISED TAXES by 3 Billion. Now he is an "anti tax" candidate

Bob Ehrlich INCREASED SPENDING by 38%. Now he is for "small government"

Bob Ehrlich CUT EDUCATION. Now he thinks children don't have a right for public.

The only DECEITFUL candidate is Bob Ehrlich who is trying to rewrite history. We had him for four years, and we DON'T WANT HIM BACK.

Why is the Baltimore Sun using a partisan poll and calling this "news." No wonder why the paper is losing readers!

Rasmussen has pro-Republican, and everyone knows that. They think by releasing positive polls, more people will donate to Bob Ehrlich's campaign. Sorry, that didn't happen the last three times you did it.

This election won't be even close. Ehrlich is spending all his money for salaries for his cronies, and hasn't even been on the air waves for one day.

Probably because he doesn't have a single good idea. He's like all Republicans - just wants power without having a plan.

Ew, why would anyone want to vote for Bob Ehrlich. He was like the worst Governor ... ever.

He is even worse than half-term Governor Sarah Palin. Sorry she chose someone else Bob! You probably cried yourself to sleep that night.

Hold on Maryland Bob Ehrlich is coming to save you despite what those out of touch believe!

You O'Malley backers are whistling past the graveyard. In a State where Dems out number Republicans by three to one, if every body intended to vote strictly according to party lines this election would not even be close. Everybody knows the deal: large black turnout in PG County and Baltimore City :O'Malley wins. Low turnout in those two areas he is gone.

I had to go look for the link and was surprised it wasn't here: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/maryland/election_2010_maryland_governor

Also of note, 41% said economy getting worse (31% better, 23% same) and 55% rate US economy as poor (37% fair, 7% good).

Every poll taken has shown the race tight and close to being tied.

Yet lemming liberal Democrat drones continue to SCREAM IT'S A REPUBLICAN POLL!

HAHA! Too funny. What idiots.

Oh, and let me correct some incorrect statements here...

Ehrlich did not raise taxes other than property & fees/tolls and O'Malley has raised taxes MORE including the LARGEST TAX INCREASE IN STATE HISTORY! And it mostly affected the poor and middle class too!

O'Malley didn't spend more because he squandered a billion dollar surplus and had no money left to spend!

O'Malley cut education funding more than Ehrlich because his failed slots plan has The Thornton education plan STILL underfunded now for almost 10 years! And you can't blame Ehrlich for that because the Democrat legislature is at fault for decreased education spending under Ehrlich by year after year continuing to fail to pass slots. And now the O'Malley plan is a complete BUST! Go figure

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About the bloggers
Annie Linskey covers state politics and government for The Baltimore Sun. Previously, as a City Hall reporter, she wrote about the corruption trial of Mayor Sheila Dixon and kept a close eye on city spending. Originally from Connecticut, Annie has also lived in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, where she reported on war crimes tribunals and landmines. She lives in Canton.

John Fritze has covered politics and government at the local, state and federal levels for more than a decade and is now The Baltimore Sun’s Washington correspondent. He previously wrote about Congress for USA TODAY, where he led coverage of the health care overhaul debate and the 2010 election. A native of Albany, N.Y., he currently lives in Montgomery County.

Julie Scharper covers City Hall and Baltimore politics. A native of Baltimore County, she graduated from The Johns Hopkins University in 2001 and spent two years teaching in Honduras before joining The Baltimore Sun. She has followed the Amish community of Nickel Mines, Pa., in the year after a schoolhouse massacre, reported on courts and crime in Anne Arundel County, and chronicled the unique personalities and places of Baltimore City and its surrounding counties.
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