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July 12, 2010

Poll: Slight gain for Ehrlich in neck-and-neck race

The latest Rasmussen Reports survey in the Maryland governor's race is out on Monday, and shows Republican Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. in a statistical tie with Democratic incumbent Martin O'Malley. The survey of 500 "likely voters" shows Ehrlich ahead of O'Malley, 47 percent to 46 percent. With a 4.5 percentage point margin of error, the results mean that the two candidates remain in a statistical dead heat.

Rasmussen Reports polling -- conducted through automated telephone questionnaires -- tends to favor Republican candidates, longtime pollsters agree.

According to the Rasmussen analysis:

"As expected, the rematch of the 2006 race has been close from the start and has been getting even closer as time goes on. In February, O’Malley led 49% to 43%, but by April it was a closer 47% to 44%. The two were tied last month with 45% apiece.

Still, Ehrlich faces an uphill struggle to reclaim the office he held from 2003 to 2007 in a state that trends strongly Democratic. But Marylanders, like voters nationwide, remain pessimistic about the economy.

Just 11% of Maryland voters rate the economy as good, while 44% view it as bad. Thirty-five percent (35%) say the economy is getting better; 42% say it’s getting worse. While bleak, these assessments are a bit more positive than the national view."

O’Malley was dismissive of the Rasmussen report when asked about it after a campaign event Monday morning. He called it the latest in “a series of Republican robo-polls.” He predicted such polls would come out every week and that “they’ll never be favorable to us.”

Asked whether he trusts any polls, he repeated one of the classic lines in politics, saying the only one that matters is what voters decide Nov. 2.

-- Julie Bykowicz and David Nitkin

Posted by David Nitkin at 10:51 AM | | Comments (26)
Categories: Horserace


Rassmussen has never polled Maryland well. Their final 2006 poll only showed O'Malley with a +1 lead when he won by +7. Every other pollster showed O'Malley up 5-10. Based on prior history. O'Malley is probably +5 today.

O- bama, O-malley, O-NO

"O- bama, O-malley, O-NO"

Thanks for the intelligent addition to the discussion. Next time remember to spell it "OWE Malley" so everyone can be really impressed with your originality.

awesome. another republican poll favoring a Republican.

As long as Martin continues to hold the KEY counties he will take this...easily.

Everyone knows that Rasmussen has a Republican house effect where their polling has consistently shown better results for Republican candidates than other polling outfits.

Reporters just want to cover the horse race.

Doesn't anyone think its odd that:

The President has a 57% approval rating but 51% wants to repeal health care - his primary legislative achievement?

The Governor lost 6 points in favorability and 11 points in job approval, but the race only moved 2 points?

Is Rasmussen trying to say that the GOP is going to win EVERY race?

Come November, Baltimore County will decide the winner for governor. Bob Erhlich will take this race because the people have had it with the outrageous spending and higher taxes by O'Malley and the democratically controlled House and Senate.
Now to address O'Malley. When asked about the Rassmussen poll, he criticizes it as a "republican poll". What an immature thing to say, This guy has an enormous ego problem. Note to Martin, you're no better than any of us, so get off your high horse and start listening to YOUR boss- we the people.

Josh, MoM actually won by +6, not +7.

(Julie: You're both right -- margin was 6.5 percentage points.)

Ehrlich should have been re-elected 4 yrs ago. the first thing libscum owe-malley did is raise the sales tax which effects the poor most of all. owe-malley is nothing but a corrupt tax-and-spend scumocrat who needs to lose huge to send a message to hussein that Americans aren't going to put up with the scumocrats communist agenda

Our state of Maryland was in much better shape while Bob Ehrlich was Governor, there's no denying it. Any Marylander who cares about this state and his/her own personal finances, will do the right thing and get "Owe Malley" out of there. We need Bob back in office and whether you are a die hard Democrat or not, do the right thing and put Bob back into office to straighten out this mess, before we have another 4 yrs. of it!

Assignment for O'Malley supporters - please give us 3 reasons why we should vote for O'Malley. Based on his record, please be specific as to what Governor O'Malley has achieved.

These reasons can not include; anything negative, your distaste for Ehrlich, his record, haircut or Republicans in general.

Sell me.

Baltimore City...P.G County...Montgomery County ..O'Malley WINS!!! Nothing else is going to matter.

the things i rememr
ber , my registation for my car doubled,a fee called a flush tax was inacted,the budget went up every year,lets look at the records of both,then decide. its a tough dance,I dont mind paying higher taxes as long as my services are either improved or maintained

Omalley is funding casa de maryland. We are going to have the same, if we don't already prblems as AZ. We need illegals out of our stae and country, Omalley is bringng them in search casa de maryland, you will see where your MD tax dollars aregoing.

I'm with Mike & Stephanie, someone please tell me 3 things POSITIVE that O'Malley has done for the state of MD. Hell, I'll settle for just two things. Better yet, just give us ONE constructive thing he's done. I guarantee you'll have to think long and hard to come up with something!

Mike & Stephanie: Your 3 reasons:

1. Ehrlich jacked up tuition on in-state University of Maryland students +40% in his 1 term!

2. Ehrlich shifted real estate transfer tax receipts tagged for open space land purchases into the General Fund, and wanted to sell off "surplus" state park land.

3. He and, especially his first lady, were "excited" by Sarah Palin as McCain's VP pick. That says everything you need to know.

If Ehrlich didn't do the flush tax the libprogs would have said he didn;t do anything fro the Bay!

c gerty,

Did you forget that Ehrlich approved and voted for (That little board the gov's serve on on)hundreds of thousands of dollars for CASA as well?

Memories, like the corners of my mind....

Good things O'Malley has done:

1 - kept college tuition costs frozen for almost 4 years (thats a lot more than could be said when I was in school back from 01-05, even had to get a letter from the school saying for the first time in MD history tuition was going up mid year)

2 - continued to fight for new light rail (purple and red lines) (of course most Rep. do not like transit so i'm sure you don't understand why that is so important).

3 - Had the balls to actually raise taxes in a very clear to the point way (as opposed to hiking fees for just about anything a fee could be charged for).

error is a whopping +/- 4.5%

No reason to vote for Ehrlich after the mess he made of things.

I have found Governor O'Malley to be a refreshing change to the malaise of the Erlich reign. I am PRAYING that O'Malley wins a second term. His priorities are in the right place. Sometimes people have to pay higher taxes to keep public services in good order. Maybe our tax rate is why our schools are now rated #1 in the country. This is under O'Malley, NOT Erlich. Voting Erlich in again would be a step backward for Maryland.

@Jack - ur rhetoric is tired and old. Every comment is the same thing. We get it. However, I take exception - Baltimore County and Howard County do matter. If Ehrlich wins these counties with significant margins and stays close in Montgomery, O'Malley loses.

@Mike - ur 3 examples are reasons for ur distaste of Candidate Ehrlich record, not examples of achievement of Governor O'Malley.

@BB - I respect ur opinion. Policy choices from Gov O'Malley. If you believe that is enough to return him to the State House, then Godspeed.

No one has yet to convince me that Governor O'Malley is moving Maryland forward.

Please keep trying.

If O'Malley had accomplished anything positive for this great State of Maryland, why can't he talk about it and run on his record. All we get are the same old, same old, dirty politics and tasteless ads. People are tired of it, here and across this country. Time to get the politicians out of office that are doing nothing but serving themselves & their own egos. Bob Ehrlich is real, he can be trusted to do what's right for the people of this state, he's proven that before and this state needs him back, now more than ever!

The only MOM accomplishment that I can pinpoint is oyster replenishment!

O'Malley Record:

1. Made Higher Education a priority again by funding the University of Maryland system and Community Colleges so middle class families could afford to send their kids to college.

2. Did not attempt to sell off State Park land under the table, and has maintained our AAA Bond Rating, while other States can't pay their bills.

3. Established a $5,000 tax credit for small business to hire unemployed workers.

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About the bloggers
Annie Linskey covers state politics and government for The Baltimore Sun. Previously, as a City Hall reporter, she wrote about the corruption trial of Mayor Sheila Dixon and kept a close eye on city spending. Originally from Connecticut, Annie has also lived in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, where she reported on war crimes tribunals and landmines. She lives in Canton.

John Fritze has covered politics and government at the local, state and federal levels for more than a decade and is now The Baltimore Sun’s Washington correspondent. He previously wrote about Congress for USA TODAY, where he led coverage of the health care overhaul debate and the 2010 election. A native of Albany, N.Y., he currently lives in Montgomery County.

Julie Scharper covers City Hall and Baltimore politics. A native of Baltimore County, she graduated from The Johns Hopkins University in 2001 and spent two years teaching in Honduras before joining The Baltimore Sun. She has followed the Amish community of Nickel Mines, Pa., in the year after a schoolhouse massacre, reported on courts and crime in Anne Arundel County, and chronicled the unique personalities and places of Baltimore City and its surrounding counties.
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