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July 13, 2010

Poll du jour: O'Malley, Ehrlich in statistical tie

Out today is the first Public Policy Polling survey on the Maryland governor's race -- a matchup that seems to be attracting attention from pollsters right and left. The survey of 569 Maryland voters shows Gov. Martin O'Malley leading former Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich 45 percent to 42.

With a 4 percentage-point margin of error, they're statistically tied, as other recent polls have shown. Public Policy says the poll shows that Ehrlich is more strongly supported by his Republican party than O'Malley is by his Democrats. From the company's press release:

In the horse race 87% of Republicans support the former Governor while only 66% of Democrats support the current Governor. Republicans are united for Ehrlich and against O’Malley, while the Democrats are more fractured in their support.

In such a close race the undecided voters will play an important role. 12% of Maryland voters have yet to choose sides.

“The race is close. But with the clear support of his Republican base Ehrlich is off to a strong start,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Most of the undecided voters are Democrats, gaining their support will be key to O’Malley’s success.”

The survey, an automated poll where the person who answered the phone presses a number to indicate his or her response, was conducted from July 10-12. Public Policy Polling, which is based in Raleigh, N.C., acknowledges that "other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify."

Asked about the poll, O'Malley campaign spokesman Rick Abbruzzese said, "We know this is going to be a close race." He said the governor is "continuing to focus on moving Maryland forward, making the tough decisions to get us through this recession and create jobs."

Ehrlich spokesman Andy Barth will be getting in touch shortly with a response. Ehrlich spokesman Andy Barth said, "There are a lot of polls between now and November. This one like yesterday's, shows it's a close race. We believe, in the end, more Democrats, Republicans and Independents will be persuaded by Bob Ehrlich's message of more jobs and lower taxes to vote for him."

Yesterday, a Rasmussen Reports poll also had the candidates in a statistical dead heat, with 47 percent of those polled saying they'd choose Ehrlich, and 46 percent picking O'Malley. And, earlier, a Magellan poll showed Ehrlich ahead of O'Malley.

Posted by Julie Bykowicz at 1:20 PM | | Comments (14)
Categories: Candidate Watch 2010, Horserace
        

Comments

Ehrlich is stuck in quicksand. He will lose.

How come you didn't link in your other post to the Rasmussen Report? http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/maryland/election_2010_maryland_governor

James,
There was a whole piece about this other poll you want to push.

O'Malley's potential vote count is much higher than Ehrlich's.the polls are not great news for bobby.

In this state if the boy gov is not ahead by 20 points, he is not doing well with the states democrats!

I'm no fan of Ehrlich but anyone would be better than O'Malley - he is an awful governor. He gets an F in my book for public safety - for that reason alone I'm not voting for "O".

I don't want to push that poll, just pointing out it wasn't linked. There are both phone based ones. Different samples though.

So if MOM wins should we expect, again, his first order will be to increase the state sales tax by another 20%?

Democrats mean higher taxes, more government, more horribly flawed social programs, and more giveaways to people who don't work and mostly just have babies.

Democrats bring crime and red tape and if you dispute this compare Pennsylvania to Maryland!

What a joke!

Maryland survives because it is wrapped around D.C. This once never ending fount spewing other people's money will be but a drip in the coming 5-7 years as the country is utterly broke, as never before. This end of creation subsidy will result in all sorts of hardships.

When businesses experience hard times they cut back workforce or even close. When government experiences this they raise taxes and slow hiring.

Too many 'govment' jobs where prior nothing was needed.

See Depts. of Energy and Commerce.

Maybe if O'Malley hadn't rubber stamped Ehrlich's biggest boondoggle, the ICC Toll Road, more Dems could have supported him.

Had the R's run anyone besides Bobby, they might have had my (otherwise liberal) vote.

This race is no doubt a toss up.

Just need to point out though that PPP is a Democrat polling firm and their break down of respondents by party ID is a bit suspect. In the 2008 election (a highwater mark for Dems) the party ID breakdown at the polls was 51% D, 28% R and 21% Indy. This poll is 60% D, 28% R and 12% Indy.

Long story short, they seem to be shorting the indy vote and oversampling Dems. Given that polling nationwide is showing independents splitting 2 to 1 for Republicans (even in liberal bastions such as Massachusetts), the likely result is that the oversampling of Dems at the expense of independents is inflating O'Malley's support while deflating Ehrlichs.

The difference between this and other polls is that this is all voters, and everyone else has been doing likely voters. A big difference because the Republicans are much more energized this year and that would change the results.

bobby smooth tell us what programs you will cut and what other "non-tax" sources of revenue you will have to balance the budget. win our votes with transparency. ..... maybe I'm expecting too much ehh?

Debnam is a democratic pollster. This man donates exclusively to democratic candidates. Just take this poll (showing a 3-point lead for O'M) and the Magellan poll (a Republican pollster showing a 3-point lead for Ehrlich) and it's a net tie. The only difference between Debnam and the Magellan pollsters is that Debnam tries to hide his political leanings. Good reading: http://www.uslaw.com/library/Federal_Judiciary/Public_Policy_Polling_Controlling_Jim_Geraghty.php?item=841831

The furloughs for State Employees are in place for FY 2011 (July 1, 2010 –June 30, 2011) and are virtually identical to last year's.

Right off the bat, 5 Service Reduction Days (state workers get 'paid' but give the money right back to the state) + 3 - 5 additional days with out any pay. The net result: a 3 - 4% pay reduction for all State workers. It is being sold to workers as a 1.3-1.7% salary reduction (the 5 service reduction days are left out of the calculation). Talk about fuzzy math.

This is on top of the additional funds we are now pumping into the pension plan (our contribution was raised 3 years ago).

State Worker is correct that Maryland's furlough plan equals a three percent to four percent pay cut, depending on a state employee's income.

Bob Ehrlich repeatedly attacks Gov. O'Malley for the three to four percent temporary pay cut, but he was silent when his own firm permanently cut workers' pay ten percent due to the same recession forcing Gov. O'Malley to cut.

So Bob Ehrlich's employees took a cut twice as deep as state employees under Gov. O'Malley, and they did not receive days off as state employees did.

Mr. Ehrlich's furlough hypocrisy was on display when he endorsed Republican Anne Arundel county executive John Leopold, who enacted a furlough plan identical to Gov. O'Malley's the same week he attacked Gov. O'Malley.

Then Mr. Ehrlich attended a rityz fundraiser in Virginia hosted by Republican Gov. Bob McDonald, who furloughed workers in his state, as did Gov. O'Malley and at least 30 other governors coping with the deepest recession since the Great Depression.

- Steve Lebowitz, Annapolis

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About the bloggers
Annie Linskey covers state politics and government for The Baltimore Sun. Previously, as a City Hall reporter, she wrote about the corruption trial of Mayor Sheila Dixon and kept a close eye on city spending. Originally from Connecticut, Annie has also lived in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, where she reported on war crimes tribunals and landmines. She lives in Canton.

John Fritze has covered politics and government at the local, state and federal levels for more than a decade and is now The Baltimore Sun’s Washington correspondent. He previously wrote about Congress for USA TODAY, where he led coverage of the health care overhaul debate and the 2010 election. A native of Albany, N.Y., he currently lives in Montgomery County.

Julie Scharper covers City Hall and Baltimore politics. A native of Baltimore County, she graduated from The Johns Hopkins University in 2001 and spent two years teaching in Honduras before joining The Baltimore Sun. She has followed the Amish community of Nickel Mines, Pa., in the year after a schoolhouse massacre, reported on courts and crime in Anne Arundel County, and chronicled the unique personalities and places of Baltimore City and its surrounding counties.
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