Voters vent anti-establishment anger, Maryland forecast unchanged
The turbulent midterm election year continues, with primary voters dumping Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter, threatening to unseat another (Arkansas Sen. Blanche Lincoln is in a runoff) and giving tea partiers their biggest victory yet.
Those were the latest warning shots at the establishment in the nation's capital, which figures to look different after a frustrated and angry 2010 electorate is done venting its feelings in November.
But the anti-Washington message, while clear and consistent, doesn't really change the political forecast for Maryland.
Only one member of the state's congressional delegation is imperiled, freshman Rep. Frank Kratovil. A Democratic victory in the special election for the late Democratic Rep. John Murtha's southwestern Pennsylvania seat cheered Democratic strategists, but that situation bears little similarity to Maryland's First District.
“For all of their bluster about building a national wave this year, including RNC Chairman Michael Steele’s guarantee of victory for Tim Burns, Republican policies were once again rejected when it came time to face the voters," Maryland Rep. Chris Van Hollen, chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said in a statement.
The vote was seen as a vindication of Murtha's pork-barrel style of politics and a nod to the memory of a man who represented the area for 36 years.
It also was a reminder (Rand Paul's victory in Kentucky was another) that voter hostility is bipartisan this year.
The economy stinks. Americans are outraged and they're worried, about their jobs and the future. Recent national surveys peg the favorability of both major parties at record or near-record lows, with no advantage to either side at the moment (a relative gain for Republicans, but nothing that would guarantee success on Election Day).
Those are potential danger signs for any challenger -- Bob Ehrlich is the most prominent in Maryland -- who hopes to win by merely riding an anti-incumbent wave.
Nothing in Tuesday's results changes Ehrlich's status as the underdog in his bid to replace Gov. Martin O'Malley, particularly since he can't claim to be an outsider like Kentucky's Paul. At the same time, he's still got more than five months to shake things up and make a strong case for a change in Annapolis.
As for the recent post about over-interpretation of Tuesday's results (go back to the main Maryland Politics blog page, and scroll down), check out Politico.
Among the overheated analysis you'll find there: "GAME CHANGE: THE ACTIVIST WINGS IN BOTH PARTIES HAVE OFFICIALLY WON -- THEY DON’T NEED WASHINGTON ANYMORE...This is a stark and potentially durable change in politics. The old structures that protected incumbent power are weakening."
Also: "[T]he outcome [in the Pennsylvania special for Murtha's seat] casts serious doubt on the idea that the Democratic House majority is in jeopardy."
Well, maybe. And maybe not.
Republicans still have a decent chance of picking up the House, in the view of independent analysts.
As for incumbent protection, both parties are already firing up their gerrymandering computers and plotting state-level deals to protect House members of both parties when new lines get drawn after this year's census.
The multitude of built-in incumbent campaign advantages--fat campaign checks from lobbyists and special interest groups are only the most obvious--are continuing to flow.
Even in the fabled 1994 turnover election, 90 percent of House incumbents won. Only once in the last 34 years has that figure fallen below 90 (all the way down to 88 percent).
We'll post the 2010 score here after all the votes are counted this fall. We'll know then whether this midterm is a truly historic game-changer (the phrase that became popular in the overhyped '08 election year) or merely a give-back of Democratic gains from the last two national elections.








Comments
Of course Maryland forecast unchanged. Maryland has the dumbest voters in the country, we love high taxes and corrupt gov't.
Posted by: Anonymous | May 19, 2010 11:18 AM
Josef Stalin could run for office in MD as a Dem, promise the great purges he used in the Soviet Union, and win in a landslide. I totally agree with Anonymous. Well said.
Posted by: ThatsMDforyou | May 19, 2010 11:34 AM
I am Valdimir Ilyich Lenin and I approve this message
Posted by: Rich | May 19, 2010 11:41 AM
Let's not read too much into these elections. Turnout was very low everywhere. Specter has been in Congress too long and ran a bad campaign. The Dems also won Murthas seat, a conservative district in a special election. The Arkansas election was like a Civil War between the left and right of the Dems. And Kentucky, I see that as a victory for the Rebels within the GOP, not a win for the Tea Party. How ironic, the Tea Party which generally hates all things government, has a winning candidate to serve in the very government his party claims to detest. If Paul wins in Nov., it will be interested to see how fast he is coopted by the system in Congress, just like all the rest of them.
Posted by: BlueDawg | May 19, 2010 11:48 AM
I like how the Sun paper assumes that Maryland voters will vote how the sun paper wants. I hope all incumbents and previous elected officials get booted out. We need new blood in the leadership. It is a shame that you can have a few families control our lives. The Omalley Busch and Miller klan need to be set free
Posted by: Joe possum | May 19, 2010 11:49 AM
For Anonymous & Co.:
The thief yells "catch the thief". We all know what red stands for...
Posted by: Leonard | May 19, 2010 11:55 AM
Murtha seat was not a conservative district, it very pro union, he barely won and the seat is up again this November 2010. Maryland is just bunch of left liberals who spend and tax the people into oblivion. It is the state that keeps on giving, no wonder why we have these deficits. Instead of cutting back programs, they want to tax, tax, and tax even more especially in Baltimore City. Go figure. We need to vote all these cronies out of office.
Posted by: Michael Guterl | May 19, 2010 12:16 PM
A vote for a Democrat Representative is a vote for Pelosi as Speaker. No thanks. No offense to Kratovil, he didn't vote for Health Care and I'm happy about that, but he is just another seat that boosts up Pelosi. He won't be getting my vote in the fall.
Posted by: RainyDayWoman | May 19, 2010 12:30 PM
Murtha's district has elected a Democrat in every election since the 1930's and turnout was higher for Democrats because they have statewide contested primaries for Senate (Specter lost) and Governor. Things may well be different in November.
Watch Kratovil's campaign, the anti-Bush tide that he rode in '08 won't be there in November. If RINO Gilchrest hadn't turned against his party in a hissy fit, Kratovil probably would have lost, anyway.
Posted by: Kevin M. | May 19, 2010 12:31 PM
What kind of an opinion do you expect
from the likes of the Baltimore Sun.
The american people are fed up with
the liberal media and liberal democrats.
I am surprised at how many people
still live in Maryland after you consider
the taxes and behavior of the democratic
party. They can only hope that their
analysis is correct but hope is not fact.
Posted by: Robert Jones | May 19, 2010 12:35 PM
The only thing dumb about Maryland voters is falling for the nonsense that Ehrlich and his ilk give out! Maryland's bad economic times are totally due to national Republican policies for the last 8 years and Ehrlich did ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to minimize the blow - he just figured it was easier to pass the problems on to his successor!
Posted by: Michael Wallman | May 19, 2010 12:41 PM
I would like to clarify one minor point with your printed statement of Chrisy Van Hollen on the Tremendous win in PA last night. Murtha's district has atleast a 2 to 1 ratio of registered Dem's over registered Republicans, and that District is heavy with Union members.
I really enjoy the various "SPINS" the left uses to fit them. They are the only group that could put a cube in a round hole!!!
Posted by: Nick Barrett | May 19, 2010 12:43 PM
I don't think Ehrlich is the answer either but he will have power to veto taxes and you know that there will be a lot of taxes next year. You think 2 years ago was bad, baby, you ain't seen nothing yet.
Posted by: Neal | May 19, 2010 12:46 PM
"Josef Stalin could run for office in MD as a Dem, promise the great purges he used in the Soviet Union, and win in a landslide.
Stalin? Hold up a sec, he was killing the exact sort of people You guys hate- liberal, educated, outspoken, non-patriotic, artistic, and worshipers of the wrong religions.
Props to y'all for being unafraid to sound ignorant.
Posted by: Paul_D | May 19, 2010 12:56 PM
http://www.examiner.com/x-41454-Baltimore-Political-Buzz-Examiner~y2010m5d18-Murphy-upset-at-tone-deaf-Maryland-GOP
The "other" candidate in Maryland's Republican primary for governor doesn't mince words when describing his feelings toward the decision to waive a national Republican Party rule and allow the national GOP to inject money into the Maryland governor's race.
"The national mood is anti-big government, anti-tax and spend, and anti-incumbent. So what does the Maryland GOP do? They back someone who has a record of being pro-big government, pro-taxes and pro-spending. Are they tone deaf? Do they not sense the mood of the country? If there has ever been a time for a fiscal conservative to win in Maryland, this is it."
Murphy continued, "Maryland needs to get its fiscal house in order, and we can't afford to let this opportunity slip away. Voters deserve choices. Isn't that the point of a primary? Ehrlich and I disagree on nearly everything, and all I'm asking for is an open debate on the issues."
Seems fair enough to me; however, Maryland's three representatives to the national party allowed the party's Rule 11 to be waived shortly after the rank-and-file Republicans who represent Maryland's 23 counties and Baltimore City met at their biannual convention in Ocean City. No motion calling for the waiver of Rule 11 was placed on the convention's business agenda. Nor is it the only example of party brass playing favorites, discouraging challengers on the one hand while openly seeking candidates with the other.
Obviously, Ehrlich supporters would argue that the primary is a foregone conclusion and national RNC money is needed to oust O'Malley. But the idea of having a primary is to allow voters to select the best representative of their party; otherwise, we may as well go back to the smoke-filled back rooms of yore.
Murphy agrees.
"This is exactly the type of elitist behavior that is infuriating Americans from both parties. Maryland Republicans should be allowed an honest primary between two very different Republican candidates."
"We must unify the party on our core principles and put forth the best candidate to win the governorship. I believe my ideas are the best ideas to take Maryland in a new direction. Is it unreasonable to think the voters, not party leadership, should pick the candidate?" concluded Brian.
Maryland Republicans, aside from the three representatives to the RNC who seem to have cast their lot already, will make the decision between Ehrlich and Murphy on September 14.
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Posted by: MScott | May 19, 2010 1:02 PM
Sorry but this is NOT going to be an anti-incumbent election. It will be an anti-liberal/democrat election. The voters will show that they overwhelmingly disapprove of anti- America, anti-religion, anti-life, anti-family, & democratic socialist agenda's.
Enough is enough!
Posted by: Larry | May 19, 2010 1:09 PM
It's sad that Maryland is stuck with one party rule and that voters cannot consider alternatives. The City is "Exhibit A" in the case against Dem party thinking.
And The Sun contributes to this mindset. The tone of this column is "Oh, no--it can't (hopefully) happen here!" Disparaging about Ehrlich; cuddly with O'Malley.
Why do out neighboring states (especially NJ with Christie) have guts and want change; whereas we prefer to piddle with the Lib-Dems.
Wake up, Maryland! Wake up, Sun!
Posted by: John T | May 19, 2010 2:09 PM
Maryland voters are not dumb. Given a choice tween a weak, inept KKT and Ehrlich, Ehrlich won. If the Md. GOP had half a brain they would've worked their butts off to exploit that win, but they didn't, there are still outnumbered two to one. If I were Ehrlich, I'd stay in my cushy law firm job. Ifthere are no credible alternatives ,than the tax and spend Dems you all hate will win. You might as well leave Md.
Posted by: BlueDawg | May 19, 2010 3:34 PM
Now that the Democratic party has helped create the the mostly welfare and non-taxpaying citizens that Maryland is made up of, we the taxpaying public, who oppose Little Lu Lu Mikulski and Montgomery county Marty O'Malley are outnumbered and have to pay for these freeloaders. This is where Mikulski and O'Malley get their support. It is a sad situation for Maryland.
Posted by: bill Mohler | May 19, 2010 5:23 PM
I have to agree with the previous several posters. Maryland is hopelessly catering to the deadbeats of society who keep electing the same liberals so they can continue their free ride. We have moved out west and many of our friends are planning to follow this year. I can't forsee any positive change in my lifetime. Curran, OMalley, Sarbanes, Cardin, Mikulski etc. will continue to run their domain for a long while. Just one example is the gambling money leaving the state while the politicos are paralized. The rail system is another. Hopeless.
Posted by: MrEd | May 19, 2010 8:33 PM
The problem is: maryland voters vote with their hearts instead of their brains. But with such anti-incumbent sentiment that has fired Maryland up (oh it has. I'm seeing more and more Ehrlich stickers and some anti-Milukski ones as such) I think the republicans are finally going to net a few catastrophic upsets. I mean REALLY catastrophic
Posted by: Joshua | May 20, 2010 4:58 AM