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April 23, 2010

Gov race getting tighter, says Rasmussen

A new Rasmussen poll puts the state’s gubernatorial race at a statistical dead heat – with former Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich three points behind incumbent Gov. Martin O’Malley. The last poll they did in February had O'Malley up by six percentage points.

The poll of 500 registered voters has 4.5 percent margin of error and shows Ehrlich with slightly higher favorability numbers – 56 percent found the former governor “favorable or somewhat favorable” while 54 percent feel that way about O’Malley.

Also O'Malley has higher negatives, with 43 percent saying they find him “unfavorable or somewhat unfavorable.” With Ehrlich, that figure was 39 percent.

O'Malley campaign manager Tom Russell is on an important conference call, but emailed back to say their camp is expecting "a hard fought race." Andy Barth said the Ehrlich camp just doesn't want to comment on polls. We've emailed the campaigns for comment, and will include when they call back.

President Barack Obama is running stronger than O’Malley, with 59 percent “strongly approving” of the job the president is doing while 50 percent feel that way about O’Malley.

The state also appears to lean in favor of the president’s health care overhaul, with 50 percent saying it good. Read the poll questions and Rasmussen's take on it at their website.

Posted by Annie Linskey at 2:41 PM | | Comments (15)
Categories: Candidate Watch 2010
        

Comments

Well, first, you have to look at the source, Rasmussen is a conservative pollster. In 2006 they were the only pollster to show Ehrlich with any sort of lead and their final 2006 poll showed O'Malley +1 when he won by +7. Second, the poll showed that many of the national trends are not in MD. A majority of Marylanders still favor the Obama healthcare plan. And finally, the national GOP has still not put this race on their target list so one can only assume internal polling is showing O'Malley with a wider lead.

The property tax rate has only been raised once in the state of maryland over the last 30 years, and it was Bob Ehrlich who raised it!

Come on, people...get with. Do you want more of that?

The property tax has only been raised once in the last 30 years in maryland, and it was Bob Ehrlich who raised it!

Come on, people....get with it. Do you want more of that?

Where does Rasmussen conduct their polls? Between work and a vacation through Nevada and California, we talked with many travelers. When talking with other Marylanders many commented without asking, that they thought O'Malley was doing a poor job. Some of their descriptions would not pass censorship. None had a good word for him. NONE>

I wonder when the Sun in going to include this latest finding in their print version? This is more telling then the servey.

Bob Ehrlich is Washington Insider turned Lobbyist...what's worse than that?

Hey Anonymous you fail to mention OweMalley's tax increase in 2007-do we want more of that?

Maybe O'Malley can run on the fact that he lost Northrup Grumman to Northern Virginia. I guess he'll raise taxes again.

How many times has sales taxes been raised and by who?

I am happy with the work that O'Malley has done for our state...The University System is second to none and receives good support from the Governor's House...O'Malley held the line on tuition hikes that we experienced under Ehrlich...The Chesapeke is getting the attention it deserves and despite the lousy econonomic conditions left on a national level by the GOP...Maryland is recovering and leads the nation in job creation. Martin has my vote.

You liberals are so biased. Rasmussen is a well respected pollster nationwide and the sun doing an accurate poll, what a joke. who raised the sales tax, the great O'Malley. Democrats only know how to spend money and never solve problems. They just blame the other side.

Rememeber O'Malley inherited the deficit from the Ehrlich administration. Ehrlich also had his hatchet man fire alot of state employees.

Here is how the far out right thinks: The Sun - liberal, lying, rag, defending O'Malley until the Sun reports on a poll that may or may not show Ehrlich actually gaining support. Then the Sun is attacked for finally breakin down and reporting "the truth".

Oh BentonHeights,

The dangers of depending on a self-selected focus group can never be underestimated.

"Nixon can't possibly win the election. Nobody I've talked to will vote for him."

It was true then and...

I guess when the results are not favorable, the pollster is biased. What gets me is that Obama has 59% favorable rating when the country continues to fail and only recently flatlined. Look for another whammy when oil and seafood prices spike in a few weeks. Double dip right around the corner.Make no mistake, the independent Tax Foundation dropped Maryland from 22nd most business friendly under Ehrlich to 45th under O'Malley. BTW, the business community supported the property tax increase from $100 to $300 as a temporary fix - the dems removed the temporary fix and made it permanent.For the record, Ehrlich is a lawyer, not a lobbyist. But the O'Malley supporters know one thing for certain: if you say a lie long enough, people will believe it. Thus, the lobbyist hogwash. Ready for another tax increase? I'm not.

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About the bloggers
Annie Linskey covers state politics and government for The Baltimore Sun. Previously, as a City Hall reporter, she wrote about the corruption trial of Mayor Sheila Dixon and kept a close eye on city spending. Originally from Connecticut, Annie has also lived in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, where she reported on war crimes tribunals and landmines. She lives in Canton.

John Fritze has covered politics and government at the local, state and federal levels for more than a decade and is now The Baltimore Sun’s Washington correspondent. He previously wrote about Congress for USA TODAY, where he led coverage of the health care overhaul debate and the 2010 election. A native of Albany, N.Y., he currently lives in Montgomery County.

Julie Scharper covers City Hall and Baltimore politics. A native of Baltimore County, she graduated from The Johns Hopkins University in 2001 and spent two years teaching in Honduras before joining The Baltimore Sun. She has followed the Amish community of Nickel Mines, Pa., in the year after a schoolhouse massacre, reported on courts and crime in Anne Arundel County, and chronicled the unique personalities and places of Baltimore City and its surrounding counties.
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