Waiting for Pipkin, 2010 edition
Bob Ehrlich isn't the only Maryland Republican that both parties are closely watching these days. Will he duck a rematch against a foe that got the better of him last time? Or give it another try?
The same questions apply to E. J. Pipkin.
The state senator, whose district takes in four counties on the Eastern Shore, has been tantalizing--some would say terrorizing--fellow Republicans by refusing to say whether or not he'll jump into the race for the congressional seat currently held by endangered freshman Democratic Rep. Frank Kratovil.
A contested primary would complicate Republican efforts to pick up a second House seat in Maryland. Republican Wayne Gilchrest won the First District in 1990 and kept it until 2008, when state Sen. Andy Harris of Baltimore County launched a successful challenge from the right, with help from the conservative Club for Growth.
Pipkin, a late entry in the 2008 Republican primary for the same seat, is widely believed to be eager for a grudge match. If this year's primary were to turn ugly, it might hurt Ehrlich, a Harris supporter, who wants a united party behind him if he's the Republican nominee for governor.
National Republicans have been trying to steer money and momentum toward Harris, who narrowly lost to Kratovil in the general election. Their theory: pump up Harris, who appears to be the strongest primary candidate, in hopes of heading off an internecine fight.
Ehrlich has said that he personally tried to play peacemaker in the First District. But Pipkin has steadfastly refused to go away.
"Getting closer" is all he's saying about the timetable for his go/no-go announcement. Like Harris, he would have to surrender his current position in the General Assembly to run for Congress, since both seats are up this year.
Pipkin's ability to self-finance, or at least heavily subsidize, a congressional campaign is one reason he can take his time in making an announcement. He spent $1 million of his own money last time.
Harris has been touting his improved fund-raising operation, but he'd get outspent if Pipkin put as much money in as he did last time.
The prospect of having a broke nominee (Harris) going into a short general election campaign in the fall gives national Republicans hives.
If it happens, the GOP will almost certainly have to send more campaign money than they'd like into Maryland One, as close to a sure-thing pickup for Republicans as any place in the country this year, instead of investing those same dollars on riskier challenges elsewhere. And that would be a boost for Democrats, who'll need all the help they can get to prevent substantial losses in the first midterm election of Barack Obama's presidency..
The filing deadline isn't until July 5 for the primary election, scheduled for Sept. 14.
Watch this space for E. J.'s next move.
Comments
Having tons of personal cash does not always equate to success at the ballot box. State Senator Pipkin has three current campaign accounts, all with large outstanding personal loans: $573,000 from his state senate campaigns, $480,650 from his unsuccessful congressional campaign, and a whopping $988,000 from his unsuccessful US Senate campaign. That's $2,041,650 that he has loaned to his political campaigns that he has not repaid himself. Wow. He can give another $500,000 or $1,000,000 in 2010, but he only gets to vote for himself once. All that money doesn't seem to persuade others to vote for him, but I am sure it makes the political consultants salivate.
Posted by: Just Say "No" EJ... | January 12, 2010 5:52 PM
The dirty secret here is that despite all of efforts by Harris to clear the path to his nomination, the simple fact remains that this is an eastern shore seat. Kratovil is seen as a native of the eastern shore (although he is really a PG county guy) and will not be beaten by someone from Baltimore County. EJ, please jump in and save us from another loss!
Posted by: Please save us EJ | January 13, 2010 11:02 AM
Anyone but Pipkin. Please we do not need another big business, government bashing Republican in congress. Pipkin has done little for the Eastern Shore as an elected offical. Rep Frank Kratovil is doing a great job as a member of congress and we need his leadership for the 1st district. Pipkin and Harris are old news with old ideas for America and Maryland. Pipkin needs to go back to selling junk bonds, Harris needs to waste his time trying to censor movies on the U of Maryland and Rep. Kratovil will stay in congress doing his best for Maryland.
Posted by: Fred McNeil | January 13, 2010 2:20 PM
I don't understand why the Right is so 'ga-ga' over Harris. He lost an election where the Republican candidate should have been a shoe in. Obama didn't do all that fantastic in District 1, so there were a number of McCain/Kratovil voters. A smart Republican votes Pipkin. Had it not been for Harris, most people in the First District would have no idea who Frank Kratovil is...now he's got the incumbent's advantage.
Posted by: Paco Diaz | January 14, 2010 2:59 PM
Harris lost the election becuase his game plan was to just label Kratovil a liberal and nothing else.
If Harris stays on point of defict and earmark spending he will probably have a better chance to win.
However if he goes back to name calling only he will lose again.
Posted by: Les | January 17, 2010 5:30 PM
EJ Pipkin is a good guy with a future. But if he runs against Harris, he will be re-named: EJ Scozzafava. Apparently, Harris already has Sarah Palin, Fred Thompson, and other notable conservatives ready to jump in to assist him if EJ runs. Harris already has the backing of virtually every Republican elected official in Maryland. To win a Republican primary, you either need to have the Establishment behind you, or you are a conservative that runs against the establishment. I have never heard of a moderate Republican running against the establishment, especially in this political environment where voters will be much more receptive to Harris conservative message than they were 2 years ago.
Posted by: David | January 18, 2010 10:54 AM