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January 25, 2010

Kratovil seat tilting Republican, analyst says

Rep. Frank Kratovil, the congressman from the Eastern Shore, had his 2010 re-election chances downgraded today by independent analyst Stu Rothenberg.

The Maryland freshman, whose endangered status is nothing new, has been gearing up for what will likely be one of the toughest races in the country for a Democratic incumbent this fall.

His district, Maryland's First, is now rated "Toss-Up/Tilt Republican" by Rothenberg, publisher of the Rothenberg Political Report. Previously, he had listed the race as a "Pure Toss-Up."

Rothenberg told The Baltimore Sun last month that he considered it likely that state Sen. Andy Harris, the current favorite for the Republican nomination, would unseat Kratovil in November. But the analyst said that he had been waiting to shift the district more in the Republican direction until he saw additional information, including whether Republican state Sen. E. J. Pipkin would challenge Harris in this September's primary.

Pipkin has yet to announce his intentions.

Last week's Republican victory in the Massachusetts special election and new polls showing many Democratic incumbents in danger make it clear that "the Republicans unquestionably have momentum as 2010 begins," wrote Rothenberg, who moved 28 House seats toward the Republicans in his latest national analysis.

He currently expects Republicans to gain between 24 and 28 seats this fall, with higher totals possible.

There are a total of 72 competitive House elections (out of 435) nationwide, 58 for seats currently held by Democrats and 14 by Republicans, according to Rothenberg's district-by-district survey.

The possibility of a Republican wave this November that washes Democrats out of the majority in the House can no longer be dismissed, he concludes. But he stresses that he currently expects Republicans to fall short of the 40 seat gain they would need to reclaim the majority.

Kratovil's district, which takes in the entire Eastern Shore and portions of Baltimore, Harford and Anne Arundel counties, is the only Maryland contest on the national radar at the moment.

According to Rothenberg's rating, Kratovil ranks as one of the 9 most vulnerable Democrats in 2010.

Posted by Paul West at 9:40 AM | | Comments (7)
Categories: Candidate Watch 2010


Well, Kratovil is basically a Republican anyway, as far as I can tell. He hasn't supported Obama's agenda hardly at all. I'm a Democrat who won't ever vote for him again. He's in trouble as far as reelection chances, and it's not just from the Republicans.

He voted for the cap and trade bill. How exactly does that make him a Republican?

This is not a partisan year. It's an anti-incumbent year and most incumbents just happen to be Democrats.

If you have ever written to Mr. Kratovil and received a response you will understand why he will NOT be re-elected. A simple question or thought to him elicits a three page email that even the most educated English scholar would have a difficult time deciphering. Bottom line is when you finish his epistle you know he is just spouting the Obama party line and hasn't taken the time to add an original thought to the discussion. "one and done"

"Tilting Republican"? What an understatement. This will be a slam-dunk in the "win" column". Barring an major unforeseen shift in the jobless rate or a war, this should be 1994 deja vu.

he is really Republican..or at least "was"...nowadays the anti-science Repub-cromagnons have taken maybe Kratovil is a liberal now

The Dems needs to ally with ACORN, register more Hispanics, and align with coalitions of liberal, youth, Hispanic and Black which will at least ensure a Dem majority...we just need instant registration because Dems unfortunately dont vote...but the DEMOGRAPHICS are against the Republicans

I agree that Kratovil is more Republican than Democrat. There are only five Democrats out of the entire house that have a lower party line vote. Why vote for him but can you imagine Harris representing anything but himself?

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Annie Linskey covers state politics and government for The Baltimore Sun. Previously, as a City Hall reporter, she wrote about the corruption trial of Mayor Sheila Dixon and kept a close eye on city spending. Originally from Connecticut, Annie has also lived in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, where she reported on war crimes tribunals and landmines. She lives in Canton.

John Fritze has covered politics and government at the local, state and federal levels for more than a decade and is now The Baltimore Sun’s Washington correspondent. He previously wrote about Congress for USA TODAY, where he led coverage of the health care overhaul debate and the 2010 election. A native of Albany, N.Y., he currently lives in Montgomery County.

Julie Scharper covers City Hall and Baltimore politics. A native of Baltimore County, she graduated from The Johns Hopkins University in 2001 and spent two years teaching in Honduras before joining The Baltimore Sun. She has followed the Amish community of Nickel Mines, Pa., in the year after a schoolhouse massacre, reported on courts and crime in Anne Arundel County, and chronicled the unique personalities and places of Baltimore City and its surrounding counties.
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