Poll shows O'Malley may be vulnerable; devil's in the details
Gov. Martin O’Malley would best former Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich in a poll about a hypothetical rematch in 2010, but the sitting governor still may be vulnerable, according to pollsters at Clarus Research Group. How did they come to that conclusion? Several layers of data provide the answer.
First of all, pollsters pitted O’Malley against “someone new” in one question put to voters. While O’Malley has Ehrlich beat by a 47-40 percent margin in the poll, he lost to a nameless opponent by a 48-39 percent margin. That's a mixed bag for O’Malley, the incumbent Democrat next November, as well as Ehrlich, a Republican who hasn’t even revealed whether or not he’ll run next year.
But other questions also yielded telling results, according to Clarus. O’Malley scored less than 40 percent approval of the way he’s handling seven issues — holding down state taxes, bringing new jobs to Maryland, managing the state budget, bringing people together to solve problems, putting Maryland’s interest above partisan politics, keeping in touch with average citizens, and protecting consumers against high electric utility rates. It has to hurt that only 33 percent approved of O’Malley’s handling of the utility issue even after his recent public clashes with Constellation Energy Group during which he sought rate relief for customers of Baltimore Gas & Electric Co.
O’Malley only scored majority approval on one of the issues — 54 percent for living up to high standards of ethics. Then again, 48 percent of those polled approved of the overall job O’Malley is doing while only 40 percent disapproved
Clarus also provided more detail on the O’Malley-Ehrlich matchup.
Ehrlich leads O’Malley in the state’s western counties by 22 percent and in Eastern Shore/southern counties by 13 percent. They are tied in the Baltimore area. O’Malley’s statewide lead is based in part on his his strong 42-point lead in the Washington suburbs, Clarus reported.
O’Malley scored a 21-point lead among women voters and a 66-point advantage among African Americans, but Ehrlich carried men by 9 points and whites by 14 points. Ehrlich leads independents by 14 points, according to Clarus.
The poll of 637 Maryland voters by Clarus, a non-partisan survey organization, was conducted by telephone interviewers between Oct. 30 and Nov. 2. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percent.
Comments
Could get intersting. OMalley is vulnerable and he is sinking..he just cannot listen to ways to not spend...this state is the richest and most taxed,and with Fed jobs and contractual fed dollars in area we SHOULD BE recession proof...but no spends a billon dollars of tax money for school construction,,well maybe he could cut that by say Oh 500 million(heck 250 mill. of that will be kick back and corruption anyway:) school construction..please be real..and he never listens..he could cut at least 50 million alone in appointed positions where double dippers and triple dippers abound..and if they were that valuable as managers then they would know how to save..well good luck OMalley as you are next to be booted out i.e. VA and NJ
Posted by: Anonymous | November 6, 2009 10:20 AM
OMalley will be even more vulnerable in January 2010 when the budget drops and shows Maryland with an estimated 2-3 billion hole. Myself, I just dont trust OMalley and his cronies holding the purse strings in Annapolis. Spending must be reined in. The citizens of Maryland cannot afford another tax increase.
Posted by: jay | November 6, 2009 11:56 AM
thanks for sharing...
Posted by: alyans dunyasi | November 7, 2009 4:35 AM
O'Malley's most dangerous opponent would be an African-American in the primary.
Posted by: Anonymous | November 7, 2009 1:22 PM
O'Malley is vulnerable because he is too close to Washington Politics and the governor will take down every current politican in Maryland that is alligned with him. Plus the Governor has an attitude problem by telling Governor's of other states to resign if they don't like Obama policies.
Posted by: Anonymous | November 8, 2009 12:07 AM
I wrote Govenor O'Malley awhile back over my dismay of people coming to Cecil County from De. & not bothering to get Md tags...getting emmisson tests...If I have to pay the exorbitant fee of 90 bucks so should they. His office wrote back with Elkton police number and told me to call them. Clearly his office should be the one doing this. Think how much money could be gained from evening the playing field. I voted for him because Erhlich is mindless and all to ready to raise taxes for everyone! However I won't vote for O'Malley a second time. I sure as heck ain't voting for Erhlich! They should check out Kratovil...he's seen the light for his political career! Voting no for the Democratic health care plan. As for the rest we will vote them out to!
Posted by: Anonymous | November 16, 2009 3:14 PM