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September 22, 2009

Poll: Mikulski, O'Malley have solid job approval ratings; O'Malley would top Ehrlich or Steele in 2010

The latest Maryland statewide poll results are out today, showing solid numbers for Democratic incumbents Barbara Mikulski and Martin O'Malley as voter concern over the economy subsides slightly.

O'Malley's job approval rating is 48 percent, with 37 percent saying they disapprove of the job he is doing as governor, according to the survey from Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies.

That's all but unchanged from January, when 49 percent of Marylanders surveyed said they approved of the governor's performance, and 37 percent expressed disapproval. The governor's approval rating hit a low in the March 2008 Gonzales survey, when 37 percent expressed satisfaction.

Mikulski's job approval rating is 67 percent, according to the poll -- just about where it was when she cruised to a re-election win in 2004. "She appears headed toward another easy re-election," pollster Patrick Gonzales said of the results in a report.

O'Malley, too, is up for re-election next year. Gonzales tested match-ups between O'Malley and former Republican Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr., and with former Lt. Gov. Michael S. Steele. O'Malley was ahead in both.

Gonzales found that O'Malley was ahead of Ehrlich, 49 percent to 38 percent, with 13 percent undecided. "Ehrlich appears to be about where he was three years ago when he left office," Gonzales wrote. "Well-enough liked, but unable to get much beyond his base."

O'Malley led Steele, 52 percent to 37 percent.

O'Malley has not formally announced a re-election campaign, but is expected to run. Ehrlich is examining options; Steele appears more than content to continue his term as Republican national chairman. Democrats hold a voter registration edge of more than 2 to 1 in Maryland.

Forty-two percent of Marylanders said they had a favorable opinion of Ehrlich, and 26 percent said their opinion was unfavorable. For Steele, the favorable number was 40 percent, and the unfavorable figure was 34 percent. O'Malley's favorability ranking was 47 percent, and 28 percent gave him an unfavorable grade. For Mikulski, the numbers were 64 percent favorable, and 23 percent unfavorable.

The survey was conducted Sept. 8 to Sept. 17, reaching 833 registered voters by telephone. The margin of error is 3.5 percentage points.

The Gonzales survey found that 43 percent of voters said the economy was the most important issue facing the state, far above health care (13 percent) and taxes (12 percent). In January, 61 percent of voters said it was the most important issue.

Gonzales said that the face that 55 percent of voters cite the economy or taxes as a prime concern "is a warning sign for incumbent office holders."

But voters are offering politicians no clear direction about where to go. Gonzales found little support for any budget-balancing move he tested. A clear majority of voters oppose increases in the states income or sales taxes, as well as reductions in services for the poor, public education, higher education spending, transportation or environmental programs.

Maryland Media Poll Part 1 September 2009

Posted by David Nitkin at 12:00 AM | | Comments (40)
        

Comments

I wonder what this poll would show with another Ehrlich running against Governor O'Malley would show?

Kendel v. Martin

This just goes to show you that there are too many people in this state who have no clue that they are getting screwed by these two self praising individuals.

Does anyone know a single person who approves of O'Malley? Where are these mysterious 48%?

Why we keep falling for the garbage hype of these politicians and keep sending the same lousy people back to do the same lousy jobs they've been doing that has gotten us into the mess we're in has to be one of the greatest mysteries of our time.

"O'Malley has not formally announced a re-election campaign, but is expected to run."

What about the Constellation/EDF deal? Seems to me like he is using the deal to start his re-election campaign.

They only surveyed 833 people. I'm sorry, but that's not really a wide enough survey base to accurately predict the outcome of an election.

..........................

Well, there is a science behind surveying, inexact as it is. And 833 people is a good-sized sample -- enough to tell us that 95 times out of 100, the results of the survey would be within 3.5 percentage points of the actual result if every registered voter was asked his or her opinion. I know it seems small, but survey research tells us that accurate results can be obtained from the correctly obtained small samples.
-- David

The depth and breadth of the stupidity and ignorance of the Maryland voter has finally reached the point of incredulity. While Maryland continues to have the reputation as the second most corrupt government in the country behind Illinois, at least they know how to run a city in Chicago. They also know how to retain business and citizens who pay even higher taxes than we do in "The Land of Pleasant Living".

While I still have my roots here and will always remain a fan of the unique aspects of the culture in Baltimore and the state of Maryland, the continued lack of education and awareness of the voting public in addition to the apathy among those who know better, has led me to leave for greener pastures.

I no longer need to contend with Mikulski, Sarbanes, O'Malley, & Dixon continuously knocking me down and stealing my money. However, thanks to the continued mismanagement of state and city resources and spiraling economic disaster, my home in Canton will not sell even if I were to take a huge loss. So, I am stuck continuing to pay ridiculous property taxes in a city that has not repaired potholes on major roads in 5 years.

Keep voting these morons into office each year and watch as a decade from now everyone will be "surprised" to learn that Baltimore and "The Land of Pleasant Living" are terminally ill. Given the current pace of decline in revenues and the lack of any turnaround in sight, it may even come sooner.

Help us, Bobbi-Wan, you're our only hope!

Erlich (either one) won't have a chance, the democrates successfully painted him (and her by association) as a failure, even though they fought his every move rather than let a republican win. Maryland is a one party state, even though I agree with the posters that say OMalley is not liked, he will win in the end, unless there is another democratic challenger, that has enough pull to be "allowed" to run against the party's chosen.

I honestly cannot state one OMalley accomplishment in the last 4 years. Plus the crooks in Annapolis so screwed up slots. Oh boy. Keep telling the boss to move the business out of Maryland.

If Marylanders are voting democratic then they arent voting for morals, and most dont really care about issues like abortion.

I think the biggest problems with polls this early is they don't take into the consideration the TRASH that will be flung at both sides once things get going.

O'Malley's record is far from perfect, but he gets away with a lot of it for now because of the lack of Republican voices challenging him. By the time candidates start really making themselves known, his approval rating and poll numbers will likely fall.

Babs needs to leave her senate seat now. She's been in there too long and it's time for a change. O'Malley is going to lose his chance for a 2nd term, thanks to his putting us into a massive financial debt and raising taxes in a time of National and World Economic Crisis. O'Malley must go. Mikulski needs to step down. Defeat the Blue of Maryland and Rock the Red in 2010!

I see Ehrlich's base of whiners showed up. Your man is afraid to take on O'Malley again. What would Ehrlich run on? creating jobs for ice dancers and wives of radio talk show hosts?

I havent been polled?? Who are these people that are voting for O'Malley....people that I speak with are not happy with his decisions and would 100% re-elect Ehrlich.

The dept and breath of stupidity of the Maryland showed when they voted for Ehrlich and Steele...Thank the Good Lord they corrected their mistake when they made sure he was an also ran, and elected O'Malley.....Look at the mess the republicans made in only four years...AND THE RUINATION OF THIS COUNTRY BUSH AND HIS REPUBLICAN MEMBERS OF CONGRESS MADE IN THE EIGHT YEARS SINCE HE STOLE THE ELECTION.

And they expect Obama and the democrat majority to have this horrific mess cleaned up in eight months.

marge: ignorance is bliss..i am jealous of you...i wish i would live my live with my eyes closed...the libs and dems in this state just continue to ruin it..especially baltimore and the people running this city into the ground.

"The depth and breadth of the stupidity and ignorance of the Maryland voter has finally reached the point of incredulity."

- The Maryland GOP plan for wooing support in a nutshell.

Complain, complain, throw mud, complain more, then cry when you don't get the result you want.

Hey Chum name me an OMalley accomplishment in the last 4 years. Name me an OMalley accomplishment in 10 years of being mayor.
Besides raising taxes numerous times and constant overspending. How many new taxes did he raise in Baltimore?

Hey Clay who are you to judjge other people's morals? My morals are none of your business you pompous right winger. As an Independent voter I don't want to be lectured by others about morals. What do you know about morals? Let he who is free of sin cast the first stone.

The Governor has made tough decisions, and that is why he is still liked among many in the state. Could he do better? Perhaps. Is the state better off in his hands during this crisis rather than in Ehrlichs? I think this poll gives you your answer. While states like PA, CA, and others around the country face crippling debts, Maryland has fared much better in many cases. Employees are still being paid, services continue to run. The next round of cuts could make or break his positive ratings.

Once again, The Sun choosing to print only favorable polling data on it's chosen son in hopes of swaying public opinion. When the demographic polled is 55% Democrat to 32% Republican, what would you expect the numbers to show? What a joke - they may as well have polled O'Malley's staff...

..................

JD: Gonzales reached out to a sample that reflects voter registration numbers. That's the breakdown of registered voters in Maryland.
-- David

WHAT IDIOT WOULD VOTE TO RE-ELECT O'#@*HOLE???

If you Republicans really want to have a shot at beating O'Malley, do not run Ehrlich or Steele. Both of them have way too much baggage, especially Steele. Run someone lesser known, with a good record, that is smart enough to know to tear O'Malley apart by using his own record against him. Of course, I'm not very hopeful about your prospects. The Maryland GOP seems to understand politics as well as O'Malley understands fiscal responsibility.

The idiots who are so disrespectful of Gov. O'Malley forget that he has had to clean up the mess left him by his do-nothing predecessor. And they also forget that all of the State's fiscal problems are directly caused by 8 years of Bush and his band of Republican crooks in the Congress!

The Baltimore Sun endorsed O'Malley even after The Sun favored Ehrlich's energy plan over O'Malley's so why would anyone expect The Sun to come up with anything but favorable news about O'Malley?
Since then, he's failed in Thornton education funding, Slots, Energy, you can go on and on. All the things that O'Malley criticized Ehrlich for during the campaign, even INACTION, since Ehrlich was stimied by the Democrat legislature, O'Malley has proven far worse at.

When will The Baltimore Sun alert voters that Maryland has lost 10 YEARS of education funding FOREVER through O'Malley's bungled slots plan that failed to even get any competitive bidding? If Ehrlich's plan had gone through, the Preakness wouldn't be at risk today and the Thornton education plan would be fully funded. Our children have lost 10 YEARS of education funding under O'Malley! Why doesn't The Sun do a story on this?

The only thing O'Malley has been successful at so far is laying people off, but I won't fault him for that since the economy is not his fault. Nor was the budget deficit left to Ehrlich that forced layoffs either, however The Baltimore Sun certainly slammed Ehrlich good on that as you would expect a biased newspaper to do. And you wonder why Tribune is in bankruptcy? Take a good look at yourself Baltimore Sun. You have no one to blame but yourself.

While I'm suspicious of the veracity of this poll since it was conducted on behalf of the Baltimore Sun, what's most interesting about this poll is that O'Malley's negatives are higher than Ehrlich's and that really isn't addressed in this story to any great length, because The Sun always highlights the positives for the candidate it endorsed as you would expect. The 37% that don't favor O'Malley REALLY HATE HIM with a passion! The 26% who don't favor Ehrlich are really just liberals who choose not to vote Republican in general. And the 13% undecided are most likely independents or liberals who dislike O'Malley, but also are reluctant to pull the Repub lever. My point is O'Malley's negatives are HARD #s, while Ehrlich's negatives are quite soft #s and the 13% undecided is quite a high number for an overwhelmingly Democrat state like Maryland.

Regardless of The Sun's spin on this poll and all of O'Malley's lack of accomplishments, if you dig deeper into these numbers, this poll is bad news for Martin O'Malley, Governor.
.....
Joe: The poll was not conducted for the Sun. The Gonzales poll is provided to all media; we're simply disseminating the information. I think you're right: there's some bad news for O'Malley in the poll numbers.
-- David

O'Malley has done a great job considering the mess Ehrlich left and the world wide downturn. He deserves reelection and so does Barbara Mikulski, she fights hard for the citizens of Md everyday. Ehrlich has not done anything but spout lies on his right wing talk show and does not deserve to be governor. the gop is so blinded by hate and stuipidity they don't care about anyone but themselves. I will never vote republican again for any office. Just look what Bush did and he did not even win, he stole the election. Do you remember how good it was under Clinton, no deficit, debt being repaid until Bush gave tax cuts to the weslthy. Can you inagine how good things would be if President Gore who won had taken office, now President Obama has to spend to prevent a copmplete meltdown following what Bush started at the end of his alledged presidency which is the only thing he did properly in 8 years.

What's with the Ehrlich/MOM match-up??? MOM isn't going to make it out of the Dem primary, IF he chooses to run. You don't have to be GOP to dislike MOM.............

There's only a few words you can use to describe people who continue to rant about G.W. BUSH still to this day, then transfer that rant to state politics and assume every Republican is like G.W. BUSH...

LEMMINGS.

LAMBS.

LOONY.

By the way, are you the REAL MARGE from the Simpsons?

I only ask because your post sounds like a cartoon. :-)

Despite The Sun's positive spin on this poll, the O'Malley negatives are VERY HIGH and much higher than Ehrlich's, so this is NOT good news for Martin O'Malley, Governor.

Finally, when I see a Rasmussen or Gallup poll, maybe I'll have a little more faith in the numbers.
Anyone remember The Sun's poll numbers for Ellen Sauerbrey? That was supposed to be a landslide.
I rest my case.

The idiots who are so disrespectful of Gov. O'Malley forget that he has had to clean up the mess left him by his do-nothing predecessor. And they also forget that all of the State's fiscal problems are directly caused by 8 years of Bush and his band of Republican crooks in the Congress!

Ehrlich left a surplus of a billion dollars in the rainy day fund Michael. What the hell are you talking about? Your Democrats bungled slots, raised taxes, and continue to spend like drunk sailors. Baltimore has been under liberal Democratic rule for the last 40 plus years so I guess all of its problems stem from Ehrlich too.

O'Malley has made tough choices unlike Ehrlich. How many of these O'Malley bashers even bother to read the polling report. There isn't going to be a bitter primary challenge. Franchot is going for re-election.

The "Sun" is correct this poll represented the demographics of the state. While poll values may change in the coming months, it's not going to change that in MD we have a one party system. Even if come the elections, OMalley is so disliked that a republican wins, the same fate awaits that person that Ehrlich met, partisan politics are at their finest here in MD. OMalley is not well liked, numerous posts on various articles have shown that, but he's not going to be so disliked that not only will a republican win, but that the legislature will give the opposition a fair chance.

The last time i looked pathetic up in the dictionary Bobby Hairpiece, Mikey Steele and the MD GOP were there in a picture next to the entry.

No one asked our household who we would vote for HMM! For sure NOT OMALLEY! Why not take a real pole. This state makes no sense to many people only get to d in the alphabet so that must be why republicans have such a hard time winning yes I am calling Marylanders STUPID as they seem to forget the OMALLEY promises that have not come to fruition. Remember the Democrats fought slots when Erlich was in office and now they act like they came up with a killer idea, and by the way have you seen them act on slots as of yet???????????

Welcome to The People's Republic of Maryland!

Please empty the contents of your wallet before leaving the plane and take your business elsewhere.

We all work for the GOVERNMENT here BOY! You capitalists picked the WRONG STATE!

Move your businesses to Virginia, Delaware, and Pennsylvania. We don't need you.

We're on the Club Fed Plan here. :-)

But seriously, except for William Donald Schaefer among the many Democrats that have run Baltimore for 40 years, Baltimore city would be a ghost town today without Schaefer.

Both California and Massachusetts have had more Republican governors in modern times than Maryland.

I'll give O'Malley credit for hiring Ed Norris and reducing crime, but we know where that plan went, down the drain.

And O'Malley has done nothing as Governor.
He was handed a surplus by Erhlich who solved a budget crisis, but since, O'Malley has failed on slots, failed on Thornton education, had to lay off tons of state employees, failed on his reducing energy rates promise, the list of O'Malley failures is endless really.

What has this guy done to deserve re-election? Can somebody name ONE THING?

David Nitkin tells us there is "science" behind polling. He is right. The problem is the type of survey you take. Are you polling registered voters or likely voters? I mean, does anyone honestly believe 100% of registered voters will proceed to vote in an off-election year? Next is the model for turnout that you are using. Are you using a turnout model that is representative of off-year (gubernatorial) elections or one from Presidential years? In this poll the answers appear to be registered voters and 2008 model. I don't expect 100% turnout and considering the anger at all elected officials, I expect far lower turnout. So the science was right...if you assumed 100% turnout of registered voters and turnout models matching the demographics of this race, but I dont.

Thanks to election gimmick of passing Thornton back in 2002 is one of the main reason for this economic downturn. Don't get me wrong Thornton has well meaning. But it needed to be funded when it passed.
Now as far as blaming former Gov Ehrlich. Let's get real here. Ehrlich out forth a plan to have slot bill that would help fund Thornton and help build schools and help race tracks.

The House of Delegates voted each time to turn it down. While the Senate passed it each year. Now to present time. The Comptroller tried to tell Governor O' Malley not to raise any taxes during the special session in 2007 due to economy slowing.

The Governor and the General Assembly passed it any way. So tell me what happens when people lose their jobs or have to take salary cuts to keep working. As well as people losing their jobs over the past year or more.
Tax Revenues decrease.

It is not totally O' Malley fault but still the General Assembly still has not passed a funding source to Thornton. So this every well can happen again.

Who was the Governor at that time. Glennending that is who spend us in this whole. Put the blame where it belongs. Remeber after Glennending was elected governor the first time he spent the county where he was County Executive in the hole as well.

Think back people I am sure some of you will remeber.

Thank you

Dawn is calling Marylanders STUPID.

STUPID Marylanders have the highest median income in the country. Just imagine if we were smart like Dawn and Ehrlich.

I hope Ehrlich comes in kicks...._ass. I'm a state worker and have been for 30 years. I worked 30 years - for what? to make less money when I retire. I'm giving away my hard earned dollars for this administration's mistakes. Marylander including state workers are giving and giving.... but what has the O'Malley administration given? They are spending our money. What about the 2million detention center. ..? I disagree with that totally. We are in a crisis here and he wants to spend millions of dollars for a detention center so the citizen can support more criminals. Funny how that's almost the amount of shortage - now state workers will get more furloughs to pay for that?? He's up for re-election - wonder what he'll give back to state workers to get their votes??? Like I said before.. have the first family move back to their private home and close down the governor's mansion for a while... saving in personal drivers, nannies, maids, house cleaners... and electricity, water, gas, etc. This is getting ridiculous O'Malley. Stop making the state workers your scape goat. If it wasn't for us helping run state government, what would happen....stop shooting us in the foot!!

One more example of why this Socialist hellhole is in the toilet.

The fake left/right paradigm continues. When are you people going to realize that you are being swindled by the bribed puppets on both sides who work for the same bankster/corporate puppet masters.
This is why no progress is ever made. When the dems are out of power they promise things like ending the war in Iraq but when back in power the war continues. The republicrats make similar claims but when back in power the same policies as the dems continue. Meet the new boss same as the old boss.

All voting is rigged. We need a peoples uprising using various means such as grand juries,strikes and boycotts to drive these enemies of the republic out of here. Its either them or us. They must go.

WAKE THE HELL UP. THESE PEOPLE WANT TO ENSLAVE AND KILL YOU.

http://www.infowars.com

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About the bloggers
Annie Linskey covers state politics and government for The Baltimore Sun. Previously, as a City Hall reporter, she wrote about the corruption trial of Mayor Sheila Dixon and kept a close eye on city spending. Originally from Connecticut, Annie has also lived in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, where she reported on war crimes tribunals and landmines. She lives in Canton.

John Fritze has covered politics and government at the local, state and federal levels for more than a decade and is now The Baltimore Sun’s Washington correspondent. He previously wrote about Congress for USA TODAY, where he led coverage of the health care overhaul debate and the 2010 election. A native of Albany, N.Y., he currently lives in Montgomery County.

Julie Scharper covers City Hall and Baltimore politics. A native of Baltimore County, she graduated from The Johns Hopkins University in 2001 and spent two years teaching in Honduras before joining The Baltimore Sun. She has followed the Amish community of Nickel Mines, Pa., in the year after a schoolhouse massacre, reported on courts and crime in Anne Arundel County, and chronicled the unique personalities and places of Baltimore City and its surrounding counties.
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